Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

[DXCS]

That'd be a very strong point if the Dwarves wouldn't be able to pony up the money

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No we just balance the buget for the emperor and the nobels, the ordinary people will still suffer
We solve the problem that government revenue diminishes during an economic crisis, nobody even thinks about what a economic crisis will do to the ordinary people - concepts such as welfare etc. are completely unknown

 

[Darrenb209]

The Empire is not an industrial capitalist economy where everyone is hooked into the cash nexus. Something like 70+% of the population are farmers who have strong customary property rights in their land and homes. This sort of economic disruption will hurt merchants, cityfolk, and the government's tax revenue more than it will hurt the average commoner.

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The point you're missing with all this is that the nature of their economies might prevent massive shockwaves like our's would face in a situation like this, but the average "commoner"'s relationship with starvation is staying barely one step ahead in these types of economy.

What this means is that while many of them would only see minor effects compared to others, said minor effects could easily be enough to let starvation catch up.

 

[Lunamoto]

[X] No, but they could help break the blockade

 

[SuperSonicSound]

Are they going to give that money to the actual people who lost their jobs, or the imperial government?
Dwarves making up for the lost trade is not some magical panacea that makes the effects of trade disruption disappear, it just makes them surviveable.

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obviously not, that job falls on the imperial government to do, but like do you think any one gives a shit about the people that will lose their jobs in Reikland that were servicing the trade to Marienburg when a large portion of it will straight up disappear when the canals finish building?

What makes the Canals project better in that regard if the Dwarves are willing to cover the empires coffer issues?

The point you're missing with all this is that the nature of their economies might prevent massive shockwaves like our's would face in a situation like this, but the average "commoner"'s relationship with starvation is staying barely one step ahead in these types of economy.

What this means is that while many of them would only see minor effects compared to others, said minor effects could easily be enough to let starvation catch up.

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The moment the canals finish the common people are going to get shit on any way. A good quarter of the trade that is done with the Empire is likely to end up flowing through the canals, causing enormous distruption to the common person in the Reikland that will not be able to react or anticipate the change properly because they can't just shift province.

Trade disruption is going to happen regardless. It's up to the Empire governments to do something about it or more likely do nothing given that social safety nets don't exist. Again though the Canals will do the same thing. There will be blood regardless when it comes to the Empires poor.

 

[DXCS]

obviously not, that job falls on the imperial government to do, but like do you think any one gives a shit about the people that will lose their jobs in Altdorf that were servicing the trade to Marienburg when a large portion of it will straight up disappear when the canals finish building?

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Nobody will even think about the suffering of the common people, the proto foreign minister talks about the crisis solely from the perspective of diminishing government revenue (we will give them money to pay their ordinary expenses like the army etc.). The idea that the government should help people in an economic crisis wasn't even invented yet in this proto Renaissance society, if you suggest such a thing they will think you are crazy.

 

[ReImagined]

obviously not, that job falls on the imperial government to do, but like do you think any one gives a shit about the people that will lose their jobs in Reikland that were servicing the trade to Marienburg when a large portion of it will straight up disappear when the canals finish building?

What makes the Canals project better in that regard if the Dwarves are willing to cover the empires coffer issues?

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The canals create economic value elsewhere, and therefore opportunities, incentivizing relocation. This is already what we're trying to do with spidersilk and weavers. A blockade doesn't do that.

 

[Ericwinter]

The moment the canals finish the common people are going to get shit on any way. A good quarter of the trade that is done with the Empire is likely to end up flowing through the canals, causing enormous distruption to the common person in the Reikland that will not be able to react or anticipate the change properly because they can't just shift province.

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The problem is the timing. With five years until the canals are done, there's time for people to start making preparations, to save or restructure everything so that when they finish everybody just changes gears. If the struggles start now, however, they won't have that buffer zone.

 

[SuperSonicSound]

The canals create economic value elsewhere, and therefore opportunities, incentivizing relocation. This is already what we're trying to do with spidersilk and weavers. A blockade doesn't do that.

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That's cold comfort to the Reiklanders that will literally all lose their jobs when the Reik has a massive chunk of its ocean based traffic disappear because it becomes faster to get to Nuln or Stirland via Barak Varr and the canals.

Also you must be joking, relocating in this setting is not something a Reiklander is going to be able to do.

The problem is the timing. With five years until the canals are done, there's time for people to start making preparations, to save or restructure everything so that when they finish everybody just changes gears. If the struggles start now, however, they won't have that buffer zone.

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I doubt very heavily people are capable of being well informed enough to make those preparations on the whole.

 

[ichypa]

You don't think that the memory of how the last war with the Dwarves ended up shattering their Empire and setting the Elves on their current downward slide to destruction is a good reason for them to say "hey, we really can't afford another one of those, guys"? Especially with a Phoenix King noted for his diplomatic outreach and not, say, being Caledor II?

Now that's absurd.

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Hmm, a thought.

While I doubt things will work out in such a way, it might be worth considering, in a doomsday prepping sort of way, that the Elgi remembering what happened last time might be a reason for them to fully commit to War of the Beard Round 2 here and now, because this is might be their only chance to engage the Dawi while on somewhat equal terms. Think about it: the current High King declared that he was going to strike every Grudge from the Damaz Kron. All of the them, including those still outstanding against the Elgi. Which sure, whatever, that's just more Dwarven blistering and grinding themselves to dust out of sheer stubbornness, Ulthuan wishes them good luck with that.

Then they hear that the Karaz Ankor is trying to reclaim K8P, because Mathilde outright told Daorir that they were. Then they detect that the Dawi have reactivated a sizable chunk of their section of the Waystone Network, because if the Eonir knew about it then Ulthuan certainly does. The Dawi appear to be actually succeeding at this whole Vengeance thing. Then there's this situation with the canals, which would an sizable boost to the Karaz Ankor economically, and potentially diplomatically, since the more distant Hold beyond Blackfire Pass will suddenly have a lot better access to their human allies.

It would not be impossible to look at this situation, and consider it not in the context of backing a human citystate against the Dawi backed Empire in a trade dispute, but whether or not they want to back down now against a resurgent Karaz Ankor, when Ulthuan could still potentially halt their momentum.

I repeat my beginning statement that I don't think this is actually how the Elves will see this, though.

YEah, but it ain't going to happen because of this vote.

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Slann: *squints at canal, glances at golden plaque* "Hold on, those bodies of water aren't supposed to be connected..."

 

[Arbit]

[X] They can make up for the loss in trade

 

[ReImagined]

That's cold comfort to the Reiklanders that will literally all lose their jobs when the Reik has a massive chunk of its ocean based traffic disappear because it becomes faster to get to Nuln or Stirland via Barak Varr and the canals.

Also you must be joking, relocating in this setting is not something a Reiklander is going to be able to do.

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We relocated weavers through that method, and there was talk of not being able to find shipwrights for the future K8P navy, I believe. If K8P subsidizes it, I see no reason why it couldn't happen.

 

[Darrenb209]

The moment the canals finish the common people are going to get shit on any way. A good quarter of the trade that is done with the Empire is likely to end up flowing through the canals, causing enormous distruption to the common person in the Reikland that will not be able to react or anticipate the change properly because they can't just shift province.

Trade disruption is going to happen regardless. It's up to the Empire governments to do something about it or more likely do nothing given that social safety nets don't exist. Again though the Canals will do the same thing. There will be blood regardless when it comes to the Empires poor.

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The complete shutting down of a major trade route and the existence of a new major trade route are not actually comparable in the slightest. Complete shutting down, and everything along that trade route and everything that's tied into that trade route with several degrees of separation immediately suffers and suffers hard.

The opening up of a new trade route diverts some trade, but not all, thus the collapse is slow if at all, depending on whether that old trade route is still useful or not.

Longer term allows people to adapt and to move if necessary. Because unlike what some modern views of history like to push, the vast majority of peasants had fairly easy ways to move around. Just some countries created a formalised method.

 

[storryeater]

@BoneyM Does the grey college have a series of private destress rooms where grey wizards can go to vent, either by stress crying where nobody sees them or by breaking a series of cheap things the college has placed there to be broken? Because it strikes me as something that the grey college could make good use of and Mathilde could use right now.

 

[Boney]

@BoneyM Does the grey college have a series of private destress rooms where grey wizards can go to vent, either by stress crying where nobody sees them or by breaking a series of cheap things the college has placed there to be broken? Because it strikes me as something that the grey college could make good use of and Mathilde could use right now.

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That's what invisibility is for.

 

[Xilentxium]

That's what invisibility is for.

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Spoopy Sobbing in the Palace is go

 

[killfr3nzy]

The gap has narrowed somewhat, but yeah, I moved through to Acceptance yesterday evening. Shrug. Such is life and questing.

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The fact that Boney has come right out and said that many of the arguments used by the pro-invasion group are, at best, inaccurate, gave me some hope.

...seeing them continue to be used takes it away again.

Yeah, like food.
People will end up loosing their jobs, people will end up loosing their homes.
Unless this is the cleanest, nicest, least disruptive economic disruption ever, people will die.

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??? Is this a joke? How have you not considered that unless this is the cleanest, nicest, least disruptive literal invasion of another nation and city where we destroy their entire ability to project force (navy, army, mages) as well as every defence against invasion they have people will die?

Somehow increasing the volume of trade on safe trade routes will lead to a massacre, while destroying a neighbouring nation's armed forces and fortifications will be 100% clean and surgical?

 

[Deathbybunnies]

While I doubt things will work out in such a way, it might be worth considering, in a doomsday prepping sort of way, that the Elgi remembering what happened last time might be a reason for them to fully commit to War of the Beard Round 2 here and now, because this is might be their only chance to engage the Dawi while on somewhat equal terms. Think about it: the current High King declared that he was going to strike every Grudge from the Damaz Kron. All of the them, including those still outstanding against the Elgi. Which sure, whatever, that's just more Dwarven blistering and grinding themselves to dust out of sheer stubbornness, Ulthuan wishes them good luck with that.

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The Dwarves declared those grudges avenged by the taking of the Phoenix Crown and the execution of Caledor II. They still hate the Elves, but those past deeds have been balanced.

 

[Ericwinter]

I doubt very heavily people are capable of being well informed enough to make those preparations on the whole.

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So all the people who are working to make this thing happen In the first place won't be taking steps to ensure they can take proper advantage of it? The EIC won't have started shifting as much resources that way as humanly possible, and nobody will have noticed and wondered why? It's not like things are being kept secret, not if it's noticeable enough this mess happened in the first place.

 

[picklepikkl]

That's what invisibility is for.

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No wonder Regimand was so insistent that we learn that spell.

*thousand-yard stare at the memory of playing the University gacha to learn a suitable spell to avoid the negatrait after the Karagril near-death experience*

Yeah. That was definitely the reason.

 

[Valmond]

obviously not, that job falls on the imperial government to do, but like do you think any one gives a shit about the people that will lose their jobs in Reikland that were servicing the trade to Marienburg when a large portion of it will straight up disappear when the canals finish building?

What makes the Canals project better in that regard if the Dwarves are willing to cover the empires coffer issues?

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Are you arguing that we should stop the canal project?
Because i don't think you are, but that seems to be what you are saying.

Things will change, disruptions will happen, canal project will be an immense benefit in the long term, while utterly devastating many people in the short term.
This blockade thing? It serves nobody except few oligarchs, and i don't buy the argument that the thoughing it out with dwarven help will cause less suffering and loss of life as breaking the blockade.

 

[Darrenb209]

In complete honesty, I'm honestly surprised that breaking the blockade means breaking the cities ability to maintain a blockade instead of breaking a few important things and then negotiating with the Marienburgers from a point of strength.

 

[Guile]

If Mathilde owned the Empire and it was her neck on the line, I'd probably vote for trade. But since this is at the level of nations and Mathilde's contribution is fairly minor, all things considered, I feel comfortable to vote for what's most interesting to me as a player.

And that's gunboat diplomacy.

Well, if I was voting, which I'm not, but you get the idea.

It is inevitable that one of these parties is holding a knife to the other's throat: the only question is who's got the knife.

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I would say that in this metaphor Marienburg and the Empire both have knives to each others' throats, and it's more a question of who can stab the other to death the quickest, ideally before they also bleed to death but, you know, eggs and omelets...

Also I guess the dwarves and elves in this metaphor are Marienburg and the Empire's bigger brothers with bigger knives, and we're all kinda hoping it doesn't all turn into a quadruple homcide? Metaphors are hard.

 

[Obfuscated]

[x] No, but they could help break the blockade

I would go for the "Go to war alongside" but it is not given that the Elves would unless provoked, by, say, dwarfes frothing at the mouth over elvish duplicity.
The Empire can probably return the province to the fold on their own - I'd rather avoid pricking the Elves, the Waystones might need them receptive.

 

[Candesce]

I'm honestly surprised that breaking the blockade means breaking the cities ability to maintain a blockade instead of breaking a few important things and then negotiating

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Logistics are expensive and communication is slow.

Nobody's going to leave a substantial portion of their navy extended like that for as long as it would take for Marienburg to wave the white flag to the Empire, and nobody would trust them to keep waving that flag once the dreadnoughts left.

 

[agumentic]

It kind of is an existential threat, though. @Lupercal and I were talking about this yesterday, so I'll be stealing some of her analysis:

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This analysis is missing a big point - just because the canal offloads part of the Imperial trade does not mean it offloads all of it. Marienburg would still be in a position to put a lot of hurt on the Imperial economy, and it would still have its huge coffers hiring mercenaries and alliance with Ulthuan to make any reclamation attempt risky. Yes, it reduces their economic power, but that power is already not large enough to stop the Empire on its own - the whole point of the runner-up vote is that with Karaz Ankor help, the Empire can shrug off the Marienburg blockade, even if it weakens it. Should Imperial forces focus on reducing reliance on Marienburg, which would undoubtedly happen before any reclamation, the Empire could probably shrug that blockade off even without dwarven help.

So, rather than an existential threat, it simply makes they already existent weakness bigger, with their power still big enough to cover for them. The answer to that is not incredibly risky war, it's intense but careful diplomatic movements to make sure reclamation remains a more risky move than a rewarding one. And sure, that would force Marienburg to play ball with the Empire more and economically rob them less, but I am sure they can live with that.