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Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

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ReImagined said:
It's 38% for one dice roll because each result in the probability space(the set of integers from 1 to 100) is equally likely, but when you add in more dice rolls, you start to form a bell curve and then stuff like the law of large numbers starts to kick in and values closer to the mean are more likely, and values far away form the mean are less likely—this is the same principle that says flipping a million coins, we should expect around 500 thousand heads and tails, and getting less than 400 thousand heads would be very very unlikely. Derpmind posted a good visual representation of this with the probability space of 2d6 here, and I made my own here.

Another way to frame the problem is that we want to find the chance that we roll a 152 or less on a 4d100. The number of ways to add up to 152 (and the numbers less than it) is 20,291,150. The entire probablity space of 4d100 is 100,000,000 ways to add up numbers. Dividing, we get 0.2029115, or roughly 20.3% to get an average of 38 or lower.
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Broccoliccoli said:
That intuition is super wrong. It would follow that reaching an average of 1 across multiple d100s also is a 1% chance, which it very much isn't.
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Cunningham's Law works again!
 
picklepikkl said:
No. Armor of von Tarnus stacks. Regular ithilmar does not.


I pulled this up earlier during this vote, because the question naturally arose about why the Armor of von Tarnus was good when ithilmar exists, but it is flat-out better than standard ithilmar. It's really fucking good armor. But it's not winning the vote, and Deathbybunnies' idea is a good one.
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That second quote taken at face value would say that Von tarnus also does not stack. He is talking about regular armor there, and I do not believe it can be taken to include Ithilmar.

Unfortunately, I am having an incredibly hard time finding the post I am thinking of where he says Ithilmar would make aetheric armor stronger, so I might have to leave that for the morning.
 
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We are a wizard, books on magic are inherently more valuable to us than money could be. Consider that most of what we spent money on in the past few decades was also books. Limitations into what we could buy was the natural place to put that boon.
 
allmightytoaster said:
That Demon trying to seduce Mathilde to the dark side really didn't do any research on its target. An unlimited pass to the Hidden Library would have been far more tempting than becoming the newest Everloser.
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The problem with Tzeench books is you can never trust the stuff in them to be true, or even stay the same from moment to moment. Imagine if our bonuses shifted randomly from turn to turn. *shudder* The horror. 💀:V
 
allmightytoaster said:
That Demon trying to seduce Mathilde to the dark side really didn't do any research on its target. An unlimited pass to the Hidden Library would have been far more tempting than becoming the newest Everloser.
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I can imagine the thread burning down as the daemon offers knowledge undreamt of from Tzeentch's realm. Fortunately it offered an inferior temptation.
 
So wait. Did we in universe learn that ilthimar is much more valuable or is that just a "new info has entered" and the price for ilthimar is actually still the same. I'm a bit confused on this point.
 
Okay, this is getting out of hand.

Nothing has changed. Absolutely nothing has changed. I offhandedly said Mathilde got slaughtered on the deal because it was a funny little moment where the value I would have guessed was far lower than what the value 4e has given. But for the purposes of the quest I did not guess. I knew I did not have a solid figure to work with so I worked very hard to keep any solid figures from entering the equation. The value of the Ithilmar was lots. The price that the EIC paid for the Ithilmar was lots. What she got in return from the Eonir had a value of lots. None of these had actual money figures attached to them at any point and they still don't.
 
Boney said:
Okay, this is getting out of hand.

Nothing has changed. Absolutely nothing has changed. I offhandedly said Mathilde got slaughtered on the deal because it was a funny little moment where the value I would have guessed was far lower than what the value 4e has given. But for the purposes of the quest I did not guess. I knew I did not have a solid figure to work with so I worked very hard to keep any solid figures from entering the equation. The value of the Ithilmar was lots. The price that the EIC paid for the Ithilmar was lots. What she got in return from the Eonir had a value of lots. None of these had actual money figures attached to them at any point and they still don't.
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And this is why Boney is so careful with answering questions, because anything, even a half joke, can become a Thing.
 
We (EIC) paid money for Ithilmar, and we (Mathilde) traded it for something no amount of money could buy, ever.
Trying calculate if the deal was good or not is rather silly.
We traded a thing we can't use for a thing we want and can't buy.
 
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Boney said:
Okay, this is getting out of hand.

Nothing has changed. Absolutely nothing has changed. I offhandedly said Mathilde got slaughtered on the deal because it was a funny little moment where the value I would have guessed was far lower than what the value 4e has given. But for the purposes of the quest I did not guess. I knew I did not have a solid figure to work with so I worked very hard to keep any solid figures from entering the equation. The value of the Ithilmar was lots. The price that the EIC paid for the Ithilmar was lots. What she got in return from the Eonir had a value of lots. None of these had actual money figures attached to them at any point and they still don't.
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That's what I assumed happened but it was a bit confusing. thanks for clearing it up.
 
Any real disgruntlement about it feels a bit weird, considering the votes were practically in reverse-order of how close to "just give me cash" they were, with pure cash (Middenland Crowns) in literally last place with a bare handful of votes, the somewhat fungible gems getting about a third the votes of Book, and the payment-in-kind trade goods where we'd never see an actual number coming in second to "no cash at all, thanks" library payout.

The only outlier is the Ithilmar Armour but, as we see with the current vote, even best-in-category personal protection isn't necessarily a winning reward for a boon payout.
 
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Interesting lore from WFRP 3e: The Witch's Song page 5:
The vessel is crewed by dark elf corsairs led by the Death Hag, Nemain Feagh, and her witch elves. They have been sent on a vital mission by the Hag Queen, Cruor Maraigh, whose Black Ark sails the Sea of Claws.

A blemish marks Cruor Maraigh's otherwise perfect skin. Praying to Khaine, god of murder, she has learned that only the blood of heroes will revitalise her pristine beauty. She has led an expedition from Naggaroth across the Great Ocean to kidnap the folk of Reikland, in whose veins runs the blood of the ultimate hero: Sigmar.
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The Dark Elves believe that Sigmar is the greatest hero of all time.

WFRP 4e: Dwarf Player's Guide page 58
I like this picture because he looks like Kratos in general, and his face specifically too.

There's a tiny little detail in WFRP 4e: Deft Steps Light Fingers page 46 that has an interesting potential implication:
More significant Contacts – those you'll develop a longer-term, profitable relationship with – are found using an Endeavour (see page 130).
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That Endeavour for more significant Contacts is on page 50, just six pages later, not page 130. This is clearly an artefact, but rather than a simple matter of book layout, I think this is hinting that DSLF was once intended to be significantly larger. There were certain features that were promised for the book that ended up not going into the book, such as rules for heists. Also, the book clocks in at 144, which is a good amount of book, but Winds of Magic and Lustria were 224 words, so there's precedent for bigger books than 144 pages.

The book was announced as coming out in a few weeks more than a year before it was actually released. Something, maybe multiple somethings, went funky with that book, and I think the incorrect page reference is an artefact of that.
 
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