Chlof
Her Ladyship
- Pronouns
- She/Her
They don't have to get into a fight, they just have to walk into Sartosa and hire every privateer in sight to prey on Barak Varr merchantmen.
Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest
- Thread starter Boney
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That's something Marienburg can do anyway, they have the money. Hell, it is something Sartosa's pirates would do completely of their own initiative if they thought they could get away with it. If Ulthuan decides that is all they are going to do they might as well do nothing.
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
It's a reason for them to be blinded by pride and say "hey, fuck these assholes in particular."
That is what a thought process on pride looks like.
That is a rather big if, because the canal is obviously not an existential crisis for it, merely something that could take away "very" out of the "very stupendously wealthy" description of Marienburg and limit its ability to interfere with the Empire a bit. But if they do consider the canal an existential crisis, then they are enough of an unreasonable actor that the war is going to happen anyway, might as well go into it prepared.
- Location
- USA
- Pronouns
- He/They
The river flowing through Marienburg is the confluence of the Reik, Aver, Stir, Talabec, Delb, Drakwasser, Wolf's Run, and Urskov, and the vast majority through that single central channel rather than spreading out into an enormous delta like the Amazon or Nile or pre-Corp-of-Engineers-Mississippi of our world.
So uh. No. I really don't think you could. And if you did, it would take dozens if not hundreds of merchantmen, not one or two.
SuperSonicSound
Shadowmancer of the Shadow Cabal
That wasn't the Dwarves, that was the Dark Elves, like seriously if the Dark Elves didn't exist and the High Elves had been fighting a single fronted war, then the Dwarves would have lost.
10ebbor10
DON'T PANIC
- Location
- Present
Rivers tend to be wide rather than deep. The river may seem big, but only a limited portion of it will be dredged to form a navigable channel.
Of course, that all depends on how big a ship you want to sail upriver.
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
1. I'm pretty sure that isn't actually true, and the war with the dark elves only began in earnest after the Elves lost the War of Vengence
2. That is absolutely what the elves will tell themselves, and as such it is what will inform their decisionmaking processes more than the actual truth.
Chlof
Her Ladyship
- Pronouns
- She/Her
My point is that between protecting old trade routes and forcing open new ones, Dwarves will always protect the old. If Barak Varr's fleet is forced to choose between keeping Marienburg open and protecting well established trade routes they'll pull out pretty much instantly.
I mean, that's the core concept of communication theory in war. that asymmetrical and/or limited information made one side of a dispute overstatement their chance of victory. (e.g, both sides thought they would win, but one has to be wrong.)
how I see what's happening is that we are at stage one: grievance and threat of retaliation.
Marienburg has a grievance with the new Chanel and is threatening embargo as retaliation. (they have estimated that their chance of winning this dispute to be high, as the empire is stretched thin and their navy is better than the imperial navy.)
stage two: the empire does its own calculations and responses: this is where the empire is at and why our Bismarck Expy is asking what the dwarfs will do.
-- if the dwarfs are expected to do nothing, then Marienburg is right in their estimations.
-- but if the dwarfs are expected to act, then the empire has information that Marienburg does not and can recalculate their chance of winning the dispute.
stage: 3 the Empires response: this is the point the empire shows their cards, that the dwarfs will support the empire in the dispute (gunboat or economic) and Marienburg has to re-estimate their chances of winning the dispute.
problem with the economic option in a premodern viewpoint (the characters don't think with modern views like internationalism or free market, but in international realism and mercantilism) comes around here, as it gives Marienburg the initiative. they get to decide the best response.
they think the empire cant last the 5 years? then they wait it out.
they do think the empire can last the 5 years? then they can respond.
-- give up?
-- increase the pressure?
-- make more deals to get the elfs to pick a side
-- attack the channel?
-- Attack barak varr ( the most extreme, but possible if they feel that threatened.)
it gives them the initiative.
Gunboat on the other hand, while a risk, is a calculated one to jump the stages passed 3 and to stage 4: sabler rattling. (the empire threats them back with the support of the dwarfs.)
create a pressure point were Marienburg has to make a binary decision before they can re-assess their chances. to back down or hold ground.
this is to help initiative on the empire's side and to keep Marienburg at the table, as the fight is now a lot more scary then they though it would be and so are less committed to calling the bluff. stage 5: war
I'm not saying this is right or not, But this is generally how international disputes were thought as by the acters in early modern times, which the empire and Marienburg are kind of based off.
that the threat of gunboat retaliation was better than economic retaliation because it kept the other side off their toes.
SuperSonicSound
Shadowmancer of the Shadow Cabal
Hmm, you're actually correct. The Dark elf invasion begins a year after the war of the beard ends.
- Location
- Actually pretty lost
If that really was the dominant thought process in Ulthuan, there wouldn't have been 3000 years of peace. Either the Dwarves breaking Marienburg's navy isn't enough for them to start that up again, or at some point in the preceding - I say again - 3000 years there would have been an excuse to start another war. I genuinely don't see a middle ground.
The Dark Elves who definitely aren't still around and willing to jump on the Elves if they get into a war with the Dwarves, sure. Wait...
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It's worth noting that if the Ironclads smash the fleet and the docks it will take years for Marianburg to rebuild.
- Location
- Earth
Blood and treasure will be spent either way, we're just changing on what terms. The Empire is already fighting or recovering from multiple wars, and the economic damage that accepting the embargo would cost spends lives just as fighting through the blockade would.
Which says great things about Marienburg's ability to maintain a 5 year blockade if their elf trade partners are asking about the next bulk delivery of Asarnil's memoirs being held up!
- Location
- New Brunswick, NJ
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- He/Him/His
It kind of is an existential threat, though. @Lupercal and I were talking about this yesterday, so I'll be stealing some of her analysis:
Marienburg would like to remain independent from the Empire. Its main leverage for doing so is the fact that the vast, vast majority of the Empire's sea trade has to pass through it, and therefore for the Empire to go to war against Marienburg cripples the Empire's economy for as long as the war lasts. Therefore, the Empire's prospective "get Marienburg back" schemes all have to be schemes that win quickly, and so Marienburg has the luxury of biasing its defensive posture against lightning strikes; long wars are impossible for the Empire to prosecute. The canal changes that calculus completely, because suddenly the Empire has an alternative to Marienburg, and therefore would be free to enact a long, grinding siege where its superior manpower and industrial capacity can be brought to bear, while Marienburg's coffers run dry from the lack of shipping tolls. This doesn't dictate that the Empire will attack Marienburg at any particular point, but it's impossible for them not to realize that they'll have the ability to attack Marienburg in the future.
So the canal is an existential threat to Marienburg, because suddenly all the factors that previously contributed to Marienburg's national security are now working against its national security. This isn't to say that the Empire is bullying poor innocent Marienburg, because quite obviously the fact that the Empire is capable of having its economy paralyzed by a foreign actor is a national security issue for it. It is inevitable that one of these parties is holding a knife to the other's throat: the only question is who's got the knife.
The gap has narrowed somewhat, but yeah, I moved through to Acceptance yesterday evening. Shrug. Such is life and questing.
- Location
- Place
[X] They can make up for the loss in trade
- Location
- Leeds
Out of curiosity if the EIC just doesn't build the canals on the empire side what happens?
I assume that that is basically the empire gives concessions option to avoid a grudge.
I assume that that is basically the empire gives concessions option to avoid a grudge.
You're wrong though, Marienburg's main leverage for independence is Ulthuan. The trade leverage is actually irrelevant since the Empire could take the city fairly quickly if they didn't have to worry about elves helping defend it.
- Location
- USA
- Pronouns
- He/They
[X] They can make up for the loss in trade
[X] They can make up for the loss in trade
Worst case the Empire cashes in the dwarf favors Belegar's been spending like water.
Worst case the Empire cashes in the dwarf favors Belegar's been spending like water.
Literally currently is in part an elf colony ruled by the Pheonix King
chocolote12
A Penguin Flailing Against The Keyboard Of Life.
The dwarves are building all the canals. The EIC is just buying up the waterside infrastructure that the canals will make profitable.
- Location
- Finland
Thing is, some of us don't think the other option will be limited to just treasure.
5+ years of economic problems can, and will, kill people, be it through bandits, starvation, or any number of other problems that economic upheaval can cause.