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Out of curiosity if the EIC just doesn't build the canals on the empire side what happens?
I assume that that is basically the empire gives concessions option to avoid a grudge.
There are no Empire-side canals. The dwarves are building in their own territory to connect the Black Water lake near Zhufbar, which drains into the sea via the Skull River (which Barak Varr sits on), to the river Aver, which is one of the principal waterways of the Empire. Here's a Boney post with the relevant map.
You're wrong though, Marienburg's main leverage for independence is Ulthuan. The trade leverage is actually irrelevant since the Empire could take the city fairly quickly if they didn't have to worry about elves helping defend it.
I, uh, don't think that's true. Everyone's been talking about how a land invasion of Marienburg is a huge pain and that we don't actually know its treaty status with Ulthuan. The wiki says the elves were only instrumental in fighting off the last expedition sent against Marienburg, and they handled the first two by themselves.
 
Thing is, some of us don't think the other option will be limited to just treasure.
5+ years of economic problems can, and will, kill people, be it through bandits, starvation, or any number of other problems that economic upheaval can cause.
This, and it isn't just treasure. We have WOG on weapons going through Marienburg to the Empire, and how keenly their absence would be felt would be entirely dependent on how peaceful the next few years turn out to be. When the Empire expressly cannot force Marienburg to back down because there's only three provinces, one of which is the smallest of them, that aren't too embroiled by current conflicts to be kept from mustering.

There would be blood.
 
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The dwarves are building all the canals. The EIC is just buying up the waterside infrastructure that the canals will make profitable.
There are no Empire-side canals. The dwarves are building in their own territory to connect the Black Water lake near Zhufbar, which drains into the sea via the Skull River (which Barak Varr sits on), to the river Aver, which is one of the principal waterways of the Empire. Here's a Boney post with the relevant map.
Thanks for the clarification.
 
Hey guys! I did a thing!

*As a disclaimer, this is all (obviously) assumptions on how the events may progress. Special mention is the assumption of the existence of an Elven Defensive Pact*

Blockade sequence:
  1. Marienburg blockade (or threaten to) the Empire
    • An aside, Embargo is a maybe/maybe-not act of war (this is for Public Relations for other polities)
    • Embargo also hurts Marienburg, though a lot less than Empire
    • Is an Offensive action, so does not trigger Defensive Pact with elves (this is ignoring aggressive individual elves)
  2. Dwarves break blockade
  3. Dwarves are now the agressors in the Dwarf v Marienburg conflict
  4. Assumed Empire following through on dwarven spearhead (if blockade break doesnt cause Marienburg to back down)
    • this also assumes Marienburg doesnt fold and calls to activate Elven Defensive Pact
  5. War with Dwarves & Empire vs Marienburg & Elves (Elves are assumed supporters of the war due to Defensive Pact)
    • Outside force attacks can hurt Empire and Dwarves significantly due to distant force projection
      • Also may hurt Marienburg if they are the target, though due to their forces' proximity, less damage unless they were already losing the war badly
  6. Win or Lose (or Draw), Gold & Blood cost to both side. Long time for any victor to consolidate power
Trade Help sequence:
  1. Marienburg follows through on overseas Embargo
    • Maybe/maybe-not act of war (again, optics)
  2. Empire eats embargo
    • Conflict is obvious between Empire and Blockaders, but small and individual (deniable) enough to be treated more as Piracy than war
  3. Dwarven Holds who benefit from the Canal help Empire shoulder the loss
    • Differing Holds give differing amounts of gold and/or favors
    • Said "help" means securing alternative sources (and routes) of various goods, including Ingots & weapons
      • Dwarves are very good at making weapons
      • Halflings are very good at making food
    • Other Holds may instead help in the building of the Canal
      • If so, this may speed up the timetable of 5 years
  4. Longer an Embargo lasts swings the needle to "Definitely War" with Marienburg as aggressors
    • This is when deniable assets come into play on both sides
      • Marienburg's deniable assets have a wide range to play with, but face both Empire and Dwarven Might
        • Marienburg deniable assets might also include Merchants smuggling goods into the Empire for Big Profits
      • Marienburg doesnt have a Magic School dedicated to Grey (they have a one for Celestials for Naval Magics)
    • Marienburg wont be able to pull elves using Defensive Pact due to them being aggressors
      • Still may be able to convince "a few" elves to be Special Operatives
    • If pushed, a "Break Embargo" could still happen here, with Marienburg being the aggressors
  5. Assuming it lasts this long and no side folds (ie Marienburg doesnt fold since they are the ones with the Initiative and the other side is dwarves), then this is when an Outside attack hurts Empire & Dwarves most.
    • Empire Military forces are still basically full strength (as full as it can usually be anyway)
    • Empire has EVERY incentive to help their Dwarven allies
      • Those who do not have a very good reason will be suspected/accused of trechery/corruption
    • This is also when any Marienburg schism gets pronounced if the Merchant Lords are not of one mind in this Offensive Embargo
      • Merchant Lords profiting over smuggling stuff into the Empire will be earning more money than their peers
    • War at this point will be a Defensive War for the Empire & Dwarves to protect the canal
  6. 5 years Canal completion if neutral effect from Suport & Sabotage
  7. Marienburg Embargo collapse with no profit to those who did not smuggle goods into Empire
  8. Uncertain, but Empire and Dwarves presumably try to recoup their losses both in goods, grudges and Grudges against Marienburg



Honestly I think the lack of solidarity between the Merchant Lords will be Marienburg's undoing. But if they do stand united, then they will still just be in parity with the Empire (position-wise in this scenario).

Edit: added in Halflings since someone stated the Food as being a possible problem.
 
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Out of curiosity if the EIC just doesn't build the canals on the empire side what happens?
I assume that that is basically the empire gives concessions option to avoid a grudge.

Assuming the Dawi will even accept that, it would mean a lot more slayers, possily a slayer hold or even a schism or a permanently weakened empire that cannot regain lost power even with time (depending on the option we choose). Both are worse outcomes than either of the 2 options we are entertaining.

It would also mean Marienburg gets emboldened, and can keep blackmailing a weakened Empire (on either case, weakened Dawi mean a weakened empire) every time something comes up.

Either way will result in more deaths and permanent effects without even solving the problem, so they can be summed as "things get worse".
 
Thing is, some of us don't think the other option will be limited to just treasure.
5+ years of economic problems can, and will, kill people, be it through bandits, starvation, or any number of other problems that economic upheaval can cause.
People keep harping on 5 years of embargo.
Marienburg can't actually DO 5 years of embargo, they lose money as fast as the Empire in an embargo given that their wealth is to a large part due to being the main gatekeeper of imperial oceanic trade.

Their trade partners won't be amused either, given that the Empire in turn buys a shitload of stuff through Marienburg and all those goods need to to less lucrative markets...and if you can't get Imperial goods from Marienburg then you may as well go where the money is.
 
People keep harping on 5 years of embargo.
Marienburg can't actually DO 5 years of embargo, they lose money as fast as the Empire in an embargo given that their wealth is to a large part due to being the main gatekeeper of imperial oceanic trade.

Their trade partners won't be amused either, given that the Empire in turn buys a shitload of stuff through Marienburg and all those goods need to to less lucrative markets...and if you can't get Imperial goods from Marienburg then you may as well go where the money is.

Well the Chancellor is assuming 5 years so I suspect we should too.
 
Hey guys! I did a thing!

*As a disclaimer, this is all (obviously) assumptions on how the events may progress*

Blockade sequence:
  1. Marienburg blockade (or threaten to) the Empire
    • An aside, Embargo is a maybe/maybe-not act of war (this is for Public Relations for other polities)
    • Embargo also hurts Marienburg, though a lot less than Empire
    • Is an Offensive action, so does not trigger Defensive Pact with elves (this is ignoring aggressive individual elves)
  2. Dwarves break blockade
  3. Dwarves are now the agressors in the Dwarf v Marienburg conflict
  4. Assumed Empire following through on dwarven spearhead (if blockade break doesnt cause Marienburg to back down)
    • this also assumes Marienburg doesnt fold and calls to activate Elven Defensive Pact
  5. War with Dwarves & Empire vs Marienburg & Elves (Elves are assumed supporters of the war due to Defensive Pact)
    • Outside force attacks can hurt Empire and Dwarves significantly due to distant force projection
      • Also may hurt Marienburg if they are the target, though due to their forces' proximity, less damage unless they were already losing the war badly
  6. Win or Lose (or Draw), Gold & Blood cost to both side. Long time for any victor to consolidate power

You are missing the part where dark elves take notice and invade Ulthuan. :V
 
So apparently the pumps that Marienburg relies on to survive high tides are dwarf-built. If they're relying on dwarves to maintain those, Dwarven hostility might be an existential threat all by itself.
 
What, please quote where Boney has stated that the "pay for it" will not actually cause any economical side effects or market disruption?
Because that sounds incredibly unlikely and unrealistic, at best.
This, and it isn't just treasure. We have WOG on weapons going through Marienburg to the Empire, and how keenly their absence would be felt would be entirely dependent on how peaceful the next few years turn out to be. When the Empire expressly cannot force Marienburg to back down because there's only three provinces, one of which is the smallest of them, that aren't too embroiled by current conflicts to be kept from mustering.

There would be blood.

This is a line of argument started by Dragon Paradox, and he already switched his vote when boney said the economic rerouting wouldn't wind up killing dwarf lives.
 
People keep harping on 5 years of embargo.
Marienburg can't actually DO 5 years of embargo, they lose money as fast as the Empire in an embargo given that their wealth is to a large part due to being the main gatekeeper of imperial oceanic trade.

Their trade partners won't be amused either, given that the Empire in turn buys a shitload of stuff through Marienburg and all those goods need to to less lucrative markets...and if you can't get Imperial goods from Marienburg then you may as well go where the money is.
They have other trade partners, and the voting option does mention until canals are complete.
Which according to Boney is 5 years atleast.
Sure, this would hurt them, but i think they can and will try to go along with it (and use deniable assets to delay the canals in hopes of making empire/dwarves fold).

[ ] They can make up for the loss in trade
This would weaken the Karaz Ankor and the Empire until the canals are complete.
To clarify: this would involve the Karaz Ankor paying the Empire for what they lose in trade income, as well as arranging alternate routes for crucial goods.


And even if they fold in couple years, that can be a long time for people who are not wealthy, disrupted trade can have severe, and deadly, repercussions to those at the bottom rung of society when there are not effective social safety nets.
 
And even if they fold in couple years, that can be a long time for people who are not wealthy, disrupted trade can have severe, and deadly, repercussions to those at the bottom rung of society when there are not effective social safety nets.

You say that as if an active shooting war won't have consequeces as bad or worse.
 
The main road is the same road the Expedition took when it first set off from the Empire. There can be trouble from the Forest Goblins, but it's usually fine, and Barak Varr is able to project power along the route with their monitors. The problem is a matter of logistics: what it takes one ship to deliver would take a lot of wagons and a lot of wagoneers and a lot of draught animals and a lot of time, and that's not something that can be scaled up easily. The other major route is the River of Echoes that goes under the Vaults between Estalia and Wissenland, but that's got a hard size limit and requires rowing.

So while there will inevitably be casualties because there's very few entirely safe roads in the setting, the main factor isn't deaths, it's the expenditure of money and resources and influence it will take to replace the near-frictionless wind-powered free energy machines that we call 'ships' with muscle power.



Karak Eight Peaks fell before the ancestors of the Empire arrived in the Old World.

Word of Boney on the cost of the embargo.
 
Well the Chancellor is assuming 5 years so I suspect we should too.
The Chancellor isn't. No timeline was given for the BLOCKADE, only the canal. The dwarves will take about five years to finish it. Marienburg is willing the blockade, but their ability to sustain a blockade relies on their coffers, the more money they're throwing into saboteurs and mercenaries, the more money they lose to trade damage and the more merchants breaking ranks to bypass the blockade, the less time they can sustain it.

The threat to future money pales before present bankruptcy for many of their merchants who live off the Imperial trade.
 
This is a line of argument started by Dragon Paradox, and he already switched his vote when boney said the economic rerouting wouldn't wind up killing dwarf lives.
Please quote the actual post, because the only one i can remember is about how they are not making new trade routes, only using the old ones more, which is never completely safe.
And we are not talking just about dwarves, empire citizens will be affected as well.
Economy is more than just numbers on a paper, trade means lives.

edit-
The Chancellor isn't. No timeline was given for the BLOCKADE, only the canal. The dwarves will take about five years to finish it. Marienburg is willing the blockade, but their ability to sustain a blockade relies on their coffers, the more money they're throwing into saboteurs and mercenaries, the more money they lose to trade damage and the more merchants breaking ranks to bypass the blockade, the less time they can sustain it.

The threat to future money pales before present bankruptcy for many of their merchants who live off the Imperial trade.

[ ] They can make up for the loss in trade
This would weaken the Karaz Ankor and the Empire until the canals are complete.
To clarify: this would involve the Karaz Ankor paying the Empire for what they lose in trade income, as well as arranging alternate routes for crucial goods.


You say that as if an active shooting war won't have consequeces as bad or worse.
Breaking blockade is not the same as active shooting war.
Yes, there will be shooting, and yes, there will be deaths, but no, i don't think it will be as bad, unless the leaders of Marienburg are complete morons.
 
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I, uh, don't think that's true. Everyone's been talking about how a land invasion of Marienburg is a huge pain and that we don't actually know its treaty status with Ulthuan. The wiki says the elves were only instrumental in fighting off the last expedition sent against Marienburg, and they handled the first two by themselves.

Marienberg is, in part, an elven city ruled by the Phoenix King.

The way I see it is that from the elven perspective Marienberg is a client state of Ulthuan, the local tributary around their city. That's not particularly accurate, but would probably look like it is from the High Elf perspective.

In this way of looking at the world, this is an attempt to remove Marienberg from Ulthuan's sphere of influence and place it in the Empire, or worse the Karaz Ankor's.

This has echoes of the Great Game. It will look a lot like the first step in a dwarven act of aggression to expel their remaining influence from the Old World. They're likely to be required by internal politics to support what they believe is their client.

On the agreements, the Empire signed and Marienberg has also agreed to the Treaty of Amity and Commerce in canon. This includes such wonderful provisions as an agreement of extraterritoriality for all crimes involving elves (including non-high elves), removing them from the jurisdiction of the Empire or Marienberg's courts and instead making Ulthuan responsible for trying them if they commit crimes on the continent. As a side note, by delivering the dark elf to the embassy, we were actually just complying with the Empire l's treaty obligations. If a human or dwarf kills or harms an elf in the Empire that also falls under Ulthuan's jurisdiction, and they are obliged to apprehend the suspects and hand them over to the high elves.

That may have interesting consequences down the line, as it means that if Ulthuan, for example, sends elven agents to murder dwarven caravans inside the Empire, the Empire has no authority to do anything to them, they're obliged to hand them back over to Ulthuan for them to impose justice.

The relationship between the Empire (and even more, Marienberg) and Ulthuan isn't one of peers. It's very directly and deliberately inspired and modelled on the one between the British Empire and late nineteenth century China. The correct answer here may well be to petition the high elven Empire to keep their other client in line.
 
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You are missing the part where dark elves take notice and invade Ulthuan. :V
And then a Chaos invasion rolls in through a lightly defended Nagoroth and brings about the End Times. :V
Hohoho! Already ahead of you there
Outside force attacks can hurt Empire and Dwarves significantly due to distant force projection
  • Also may hurt Marienburg if they are the target, though due to their forces' proximity, less damage unless they were already losing the war badly
I didnt specify which attacks where, because honestly, this is Warhammer.
 
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The Chancellor isn't. No timeline was given for the BLOCKADE, only the canal. The dwarves will take about five years to finish it. Marienburg is willing the blockade, but their ability to sustain a blockade relies on their coffers, the more money they're throwing into saboteurs and mercenaries, the more money they lose to trade damage and the more merchants breaking ranks to bypass the blockade, the less time they can sustain it.

The threat to future money pales before present bankruptcy for many of their merchants who live off the Imperial trade.
And as I have pointed out before, the timeline for allowing the blockade to stand is stated in the post as "until the canals are done". Your differentiation doesn't work.
 
Please quote the actual post, because the only one i can remember is about how they are not making new trade routes, only using the old ones more, which is never completely safe.
And we are not talking just about dwarves, empire citizens will be affected as well.
Economy is more than just numbers on a paper, trade means lives.
Safety is not the problem. Larger caravans tend to be safer because the number of hostiles that can actually challenge them drops dramatically and bandits don't have a deathwish.

The key losses is paying for all the animal haulage as you go from wind energy to grains and hay. Thats money going into things that could be spent elsewhere. Thats weakness, money is a state's ability to redirect productivity to meet needs.
 
Please quote the actual post, because the only one i can remember is about how they are not making new trade routes, only using the old ones more, which is never completely safe.
And we are not talking just about dwarves, empire citizens will be affected as well.
Economy is more than just numbers on a paper, trade means lives.

I must thank @thisisinsane above for doing the actual work.

The main road is the same road the Expedition took when it first set off from the Empire. There can be trouble from the Forest Goblins, but it's usually fine, and Barak Varr is able to project power along the route with their monitors. The problem is a matter of logistics: what it takes one ship to deliver would take a lot of wagons and a lot of wagoneers and a lot of draught animals and a lot of time, and that's not something that can be scaled up easily. The other major route is the River of Echoes that goes under the Vaults between Estalia and Wissenland, but that's got a hard size limit and requires rowing.

So while there will inevitably be casualties because there's very few entirely safe roads in the setting, the main factor isn't deaths, it's the expenditure of money and resources and influence it will take to replace the near-frictionless wind-powered free energy machines that we call 'ships' with muscle power.



Karak Eight Peaks fell before the ancestors of the Empire arrived in the Old World.
 
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