To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

lbmaian · Nov 21, 2016

Okay, so structuring my thoughts on fleet options:

Given our choice of plan Case Alpha, our primary goals are:
1) Protect our affiliates (including Seyek!) and borders against any Cardassian direct or client state attack
2) Find the Kadak-Tor

What we know or suspect in the vicinity of the Kadak-Tor:
1) Kadak-Tor might be in -5e and Sarek might have found it while heading from -5e to -5d
2) Cardassian tell Dawiar that Kadak-Tor is missing and they're trying to find it - this might be a ruse, or even it is true, still might taken advantage for an attack ala Strangelove
3) Enterprise+S'harien are one square away at -5d, fortified by an outpost
4) 5th fleet is 2 squares coreward from Sarek/Kadak-Tor at -3e, fortified by an outpost or two
5) Cardassian fleet is between Sarek/Kadak-Tor and 5th fleet at -4e - apparently chasing Kadak-Tor
6) Cardassian 'frontier' fleet is one square tailward of Enterprise+S'harien at -5c - might be chasing Kadak-Tor?
7) The Cardassian fleet will outright defeat the 5th fleet alone, have some trouble with the 3 EC ships alone, and likely outclassed by a combined 5th fleet + 3 EC ships.
8) Cardassians apparently don't want Dawiar help
9) No clue what the Lecarre are up to

What we know or suspect regarding other potential border threats:
1) Cardassian fleet is 1 square spinward of Indoria -3g - unclear if following after other Cardassian fleet or preparing to attack Indoria?
2) Possible Cardassian fleet might be 2 squares away from Sydraxian space at 2f - unclear
3) Little clue what Sydraxians are up to other than more raids
4) Likewise with Yrillians
5) Tailward Federation territories are unlikely to be in danger, and we could ask some member fleets to shift assets to borders closer to threats while staying within their sectors.

Tactical questions:

1) It's going to be risky to try linking up 5th fleet with rimward EC ships, because there is a Cardassian fleet right in between them. Are we willing to take this risk? Can someone think of a way to mitigate it?

2) If Dawiar is being asked not to help, does that mean Pygmalion is less likely to be attacked? Should we start moving its 4th fleet over toward 5th fleet or suspected Kadak-Tor location? Andor fleet at Landle and KBZ fleet at Biroth should be able to reinforce each other (though it would lack any big ships). Might risk Dawiar tension though since 4th fleet be passing through Caitian territory.

I'm fine with asking Amarki to reinforce 2nd fleet at Tales Har (and now I'm kinda glad we stayed with that deployment option), and asking Betazoids to reinforce 1st fleet at Vega.

Strategic questions:

1) Are we willing to extend our non-EC fleets out past our borders preemptively? If we do:
- might risk outright combat
- might disrupt Cardassian plans
- might lead to Cardassian trap
- might lead to diplomatic dialogue with Cardassians
- might be needed to protect EC ships in Seyek

2) Is it more important to find the Kadak-Tor or to stay in defensible positions? The safest play in the short-term right now is probably to link up fleets and EC ships at starbases and outposts, abandoning the search for the Kadak-Tor or even abandoning Seyek.

3) What losses are we willing to accept if this turns into a war?
- the Themis outposts?
- an EC ship?
- the 5th fleet?
- Seyek?
- Indoria?

aeqnai · Nov 21, 2016

[X][FLEET] Plan Sweep and Shield
[X][NEWS] Allow

Simon_Jester · Nov 21, 2016

Muramasa said:
@Simon_Jester

Your vote currently doesn't include the [NEWS] option, that is if you were planning to have one.

I actually wasn't. While I have my own opinions about the NEWS vote, it isn't really part of a 'plan' along with the FLEET vote. Agreeing with me about the fleet maneuvers doesn't require you to agree with me about the decision to release the news or not. And I don't want to alienate people I respect away from my position on the fleet vote, people like @aledeth, just because they disagree with me about that issue.

That said, I SHOULD go back and put in my own NEWS vote separate from the plan.

Simon_Jester · Nov 21, 2016

lbmaian said:
Tactical questions:

1) It's going to be risky to try linking up 5th fleet with rimward EC ships, because there is a Cardassian fleet right in between them. Are we willing to take this risk? Can someone think of a way to mitigate it?

There are only about seven ships in that Cardassian force, most of them Combat 3 or 4 units. The three Explorer Corps ships, or Fifth Fleet, are both strong enough to handle that Cardassian fleet pretty roughly all by themselves, as long as they can concentrate it. So I think it's a tossup. The Cardassian forward force looking for the Kadak-Tor has the advantage of interior lines... But in military-speak, "the advantage of interior lines" is often a euphemism for "we are outgunned and caught in the jaws of a nutcracker." If a battle looks like it's going to break out between one force and the Cardassians, the other force may be able to reinforce them, while there are no Cardassian reinforcements available anywhere nearby.

2) If Dawiar is being asked not to help, does that mean Pygmalion is less likely to be attacked? Should we start moving its 4th fleet over toward 5th fleet or suspected Kadak-Tor location? Andor fleet at Landle and KBZ fleet at Biroth should be able to reinforce each other (though it would lack any big ships). Might risk Dawiar tension though since 4th fleet be passing through Caitian territory.

If we order Fourth Fleet to make a beeline directly towards 15 Themis, they're moving more or less perpendicular to the line of approach to the Dawiar. If they're obviously transiting Caitian space quickly, the Dawiar may not even notice (given their sensors are probably crude), and if they do they'll see lots of ships moving elsewhere, not towards them.

Any damage we can do just by having ships in the general vicinity of the Dawiar, we already did by concentrating ships at Biroth and Pygmalion 337. We shouldn't let fear of their negative reaction force us to leave some of our best ships hanging out to dry in the face of what could eventually turn out to be most of the Cardassian navy.

I'm fine with asking Amarki to reinforce 2nd fleet at Tales Har (and now I'm kinda glad we stayed with that deployment option), and asking Betazoids to reinforce 1st fleet at Vega.

If we'd gone with Epsilon-1, we would probably right now be ordering the skeletal "Fourth Fleet" I left at Amarkia to take up position at Tales Har, and pulling along Amarki reinforcements. Long-term, I think that would have been about as good, because there's no way for an enemy fleet at or near Sector 2f to reach our space before we can reinforce.

But on the other hand, if no threat from the coreward direction had materialized, we could have sent those same ships on to, say, Gaiar Har, to provide backup for the Cardassian Border Fleet and the Explorer Corps.

The whole point of the arrangements in Amarkia Sector under Epsilon-1, as I said at the time, was that this force was intended as a reserve. That way we'd have a formation ready to be committed to deal with whatever problems arose. Instead, our reserve is to some extent "pre-committed" because there aren't any more Starfleet formations anywhere near the crisis area where the CBZ fleet and the Explorer Corps are operating.

Strategic questions:

1) Are we willing to extend our non-EC fleets out past our borders preemptively? If we do:
- might risk outright combat
- might disrupt Cardassian plans
- might lead to Cardassian trap
- might lead to diplomatic dialogue with Cardassians
- might be needed to protect EC ships in Seyek

I say "yes." We can't afford to let the Cardassians use this as an opportunity to isolate and snip off three of our explorers- and we know they're willing to do something like that because they already tried to ambush the Enterprise a couple of years ago. And we really, really want to deprive the Cardassians of the Kadak-Tor. If she's hostile we want to intercept her outside of our space; if she's defecting we want to keep the Cardassians from getting their combat cloak back, and we want to make sure the Cardassians don't get to just kill Gul Miran and whatever like-minded Cardassians are aboard.

2) Is it more important to find the Kadak-Tor or to stay in defensible positions? The safest play in the short-term right now is probably to link up fleets and EC ships at starbases and outposts, abandoning the search for the Kadak-Tor or even abandoning Seyek.

If we were going to do that we should never have voted for Plan Alpha (or Epsilon-1) in the first place. We should have turtled up, let the Cardassians find the Kadak-Tor (assuming they ever intended to), and watch the whole thing blow over.

So yes, we need to move out our fleets if that is what helps us accomplish our objectives.

3) What losses are we willing to accept if this turns into a war?
- the Themis outposts?
- an EC ship?
- the 5th fleet?
- Seyek?
- Indoria?

The extermination of the Seyek or the Indorions cannot possibly be acceptable but is almost certainly not going to occur. The Cardassians aren't normally genocidaires on that scale. The conquest of those species would be a disaster we should strive to prevent if at all possible.

Outposts are expendable. Individual ships are expendable as long as their sacrifice pays off in a useful way (i.e. bringing an end to the war closer in sight). That logic extends to fleets- but we shouldn't risk multiple Explorer Corps ships, or fleets, recklessly.

In the event of a war with Cardassia, we're not going to be able to avoid losing ships, and our total ship losses will probably equal or exceed the size of any one of our currently existing numbered fleets. Remember, the biophage cost us two ships and a colony world. The Cardassians are a lot better armed than the biophage was.

This is why we should try to avoid war, although not at the cost of letting the Cardassians randomly bully us.

Erandil · Nov 21, 2016

Simon_Jester said:
@Derek58 , @Muramasa , @Erandil , @Leila Hann , do any of you have opinions about the [FLEET] vote? You didn't vote one way or the other on that as far as I can tell.

Several people do.

Nope, don't have any real preferences there and not really the time to look at such micromanagement.

Edit: That sounded more aggressive than I intended. I have nothing against that Option, I simply don't find it that important but important enough that I don't want to make am unfounded choice for which I don't have the time.

lbmaian · Nov 21, 2016

Simon_Jester said:
I actually wasn't. While I have my own opinions about the NEWS vote, it isn't really part of a 'plan' along with the FLEET vote. Agreeing with me about the fleet maneuvers doesn't require you to agree with me about the decision to release the news or not. And I don't want to alienate people I respect away from my position on the fleet vote, people like @aledeth, just because they disagree with me about that issue.

That said, I SHOULD go back and put in my own NEWS vote separate from the plan.

You can also prefix the plan with "Base": "[X][FLEET] Base Plan Sweep and Shield" with all the plan details, and then afterwards have lines "[X][FLEET] Plan Sweep and Shield" and "[X][NEWS] Allow".

edit: oops, need to omit "Base" from second part

Simon_Jester said:
There are only about seven ships in that Cardassian force, most of them Combat 3 or 4 units. The three Explorer Corps ships, or Fifth Fleet, are both strong enough to handle that Cardassian fleet pretty roughly all by themselves, as long as they can concentrate it. So I think it's a tossup. The Cardassian forward force looking for the Kadak-Tor has the advantage of interior lines... But in military-speak, "the advantage of interior lines" is often a euphemism for "we are outgunned and caught in the jaws of a nutcracker." If a battle looks like it's going to break out between one force and the Cardassians, the other force may be able to reinforce them, while there are no Cardassian reinforcements available anywhere nearby.

Er no that's not accurate. Kaldars must have C5, while Jalduns have C4, the combat-variant Takaakis have C4, and the medium escort likely has C3. That's excluding the Kadak-Tor.

Caldassian fleet
Kaldar: C5 H4 L4 D5
Kaldar: C5 H4 L4 D5
Jaldun: C4 H4 L4 D4
Jaldun: C4 H4 L4 D4
Takaaki Combat Variant: C4 H3 L3 D2
Takaaki Combat Variant: C4 H3 L3 D2
Medium Escort: C3 H3 L3 D2 (estimated - might have lower stats, but being pessimistic for safety)
Total: C29 H25 L25 D24

5th fleet
USS Kumari: C7 H5 L6 D6
USS Cheron: C6 H5 L5 D5
USS Challorn: C4 H3 L3 D3
USS Winterwind: C3 H2 L3 D3
USS Zephyr: C3 H2 L2 D2
Total: C23 H17 L19 D19

The 3 explorers (which I'll denote as "task force explorers")
USS Enterprise: C9 H7 L8 D6
USS Sarek: C8 H7 L7 D6
USS S'harien: C6 H4 L5 D6
Total: C23 H18 L20 D18

We have also have very minor fleet power bonuses due to research - totals around 2%.

So the Cardassian fleet would likely defeat 5th fleet or task force explorers individually.

If you combine 5th fleet and task force explorers, then they should be able to take on the Cardassian fleet + Kadak-Tor, even if Kadak-Tor counted as double due to its cloak.

edit: put individual ship stats

If we order Fourth Fleet to make a beeline directly towards 15 Themis, they're moving more or less perpendicular to the line of approach to the Dawiar. If they're obviously transiting Caitian space quickly, the Dawiar may not even notice (given their sensors are probably crude), and if they do they'll see lots of ships moving elsewhere, not towards them.

Any damage we can do just by having ships in the general vicinity of the Dawiar, we already did by concentrating ships at Biroth and Pygmalion 337. We shouldn't let fear of their negative reaction force us to leave some of our best ships hanging out to dry in the face of what could eventually turn out to be most of the Cardassian navy.

Yeah, I'm really tempted to vote to move them over through Caitian space now.

Likewise with 3rd fleet that's stationed at Ord Grind Duk, though that fleet is supposed to serve as a reserve force.

Aeondrac · Nov 21, 2016

Simon_Jester said:
If we were going to do that we should never have voted for Plan Alpha (or Epsilon-1) in the first place. We should have turtled up, let the Cardassians find the Kadak-Tor (assuming they ever intended to), and watch the whole thing blow over.

That is almost a sunk cost fallacy, arguing we have to do something because we moved into good position to do it is terrible policy.

Anyway have an alternate set of Fleet Movements.

[X][FLEET] Base Plan Shield
-[X][FLEET] Fifth Fleet should link up with the S'Harien and the Enterprise in -4d at the Federation border.
-[X][FLEET] Fourth Fleet to move towards 15 Themis
-[X][FLEET] Ask the Amarki to dispatch a flotilla (preferably 5-7 ships, headed up by a Riala) to Tales Har to reinforce Second Fleet.
-[X][FLEET] Ask the Betazoids to dispatch a squadron (say, 3-4 ships) to Vega to reinforce First Fleet.

[X][FLEET] Plan Shield
[X][NEWS] Allow

I really don't want to risk defeat in detail if the Cardassians decide to attack the ships sweeping for the Kadak-Tor.

If this is a Strangelove or a deception and the Cardassians are going to start a war, then grouping up defensivly is our best option. If they don't want to kick off a war then letting them hunt the Kadak-Tor while it is outside our space costs little, as we can likely intercept it when it crosses our borders.

If we are looking at a Red October, then the Kadak-Tor should be able to head into our space quite easily as it is well ahead of the Cardassian fleet, which we are not going to let across our borders.

If this is a case of Piracy/Theft, then we may lose the opportunity to capture the Kadak-Tor, but we avoid the risks of directly engaging the Cardassians and losing ships or starting a war. We also may still get the chance to capture it depending on where it is going.

In short I feel that dispersing our ships to find the Kadak-Tor is just too risky and we should avoid directly escalating the situation by putting ships in the Cardassians path outside our borders.

EDIT:
I am also in favour of telling our allies because warning everyone that there may be a hostile cloaked vessel lurking about is important. They are also are our allies, telling them what we think is going on is part our responsibilities to them.

EDIT2:
Whoops had the wrong destination for Fifth Fleet

Theunderbolt · Nov 21, 2016

Hugh pic is huge omg I'm sorry ;_; said:

Something about that Dawiar/Cardassian conversation worries me. It's odd that they would be so open about looking for a missing ship.

It's probably my paranoia being tweeked....thanks @OneirosTheWriter

Random Member · Nov 21, 2016

Theunderbolt said:
Something about that Dawiar/Cardassian conversation worries me. It's odd that they would be so open about looking for a missing ship.

It's probably my paranoia being tweeked....thanks @OneirosTheWriter

If I remember correctly, the Soviet ambassador in The Hunt For Red October claimed that the mass manouvers of their fleet was to find a missing sub that had the son of a member of the Politburo on board.

Heh, Legate's son.

Simon_Jester · Nov 21, 2016

Summary of key points:

I'm more sanguine about the situation with Fifth Fleet and the Explorer Corps than Ibmaian is, I think issuing specific orders to Sarek in Aeondrac's "Plan Shield" is too much micromanagement for my taste, and I'm very sleepy so goodbye for several hours, everyone.

Erandil said:
Nope, don't have any real preferences there and not really the time to look at such micromanagement.

Thing is, if you read the plan, it isn't micromanagement. It's "Fleet One, go there and do that" and "request reinforcements for these two fleets."

If we don't issue orders on that level, we're basically ceding control of Starfleet over to the NPCs for the duration of the crisis. Either our fleet commanders will act without our input and with no central coordination, or they'll just sit on their butts doing nothing while the crisis blows over. Plus, we'll have no way to reinforce Starfleet units with member world ships.

That's not avoiding micromanagement, that's avoiding management.

lbmaian said:
You can also prefix the plan with "Base": "[][FLEET] Base Plan Sweep and Shield" with all the plan details, and then afterwards have lines "[][FLEET] Base Plan Sweep and Shield" and "[X][NEWS] Allow".

Did what I've already done work?

Er no that's not accurate. Kaldars must have C5, while Jalduns have C4, the combat-variant Takaakis have C4, and the medium escort likely has C3. That's excluding the Kadak-Tor.

Altogether, that adds up to: C29 H25 L25 D24

5th fleet totals: C23 H17 L19 D19

The 3 explorers (which I'll denote as "task force explorers"): C23 H18 L20 D18

We have also have very minor fleet power bonuses due to research - totals around 2%. So the Cardassian fleet would likely defeat 5th fleet or task force explorers individually.

I think we may have a misunderstanding. I said "handle [the Cardassian fleet] roughly." That isn't quite the same as "defeat."

Either one of our two task forces is strong enough that if the Cardassians fought a battle against it, their fleet would likely take significant damage and losses, and be a sitting duck for the other fleet. Unless this force came out here specifically intending to sacrifice itself in a battle of attrition, and given that we aren't going to attack them first with one of our individually slightly weaker task forces, I think we're covered.

You have to look at this not only from the point of view of the risks we face, but the risks the Cardassians face. From their point of view, their fleet hunting the Kadak-Tor is a lot closer to Federation space than to Cardassia. Three "Enterprise-class" explorers (the kind that soloed a pair of their ships a few years ago) are on one side of them, and a Federation fleet of six ships, including another explorer, a cruiser, and four escorts is on the other side.

It's like, suppose you have an army of thirty thousand men, and you are between two armies of twenty-five thousand men. Are you going to see this as a good position to be in, or a bad one?

Maybe they can win that fight, and maybe they can't, but they aren't in a position to make threats that stick, as long both of our task force commanders play it smart and avoid tangling with the entire Cardassian fleet by themselves.

Furthermore, our Explorer Corps ships are exposed by default. They're already vulnerable. Our only real choice is to send Fifth Fleet out to reinforce them, or not. If we don't send out Fifth Fleet, then the Cardassians have the option of attacking our explorers, probably winning, taking the Kadak-Tor home with them, and in general winning a decisive victory as the opening round of a war and gutting the Explorer Corps.

Aeondrac said:
That is almost a sunk cost fallacy, arguing we have to do something because we moved into good position to do it is terrible policy.

No. The point is that we the collective voterbase wanted to adopt a forward policy. Deploying our ships forward, then turtling up, is a very bad plan. It invites defeat in detail because our ships are divided up into all these task forces with 15-30 Combat each.

The way you make a forward policy work is by being very active with the forward fleets, shifting them and combining them flexibly, in response to the situation. By not letting the enemy get a free shot at any one of your task forces, without also having to deal with other task forces.

Having alerted our fleet to take an active role in the crisis, having chosen and committed to a forward policy, we cannot just back up to a centralized 'turtle' policy and decide to be passive. We have to pursue a strategy that is at least minimally self-consistent, rather than constantly hesitating and second-guessing ourselves about whether it was a good idea to push up to the frontiers in the first place.

It's not a question of one strategy being better than another. It's a question of one strategy being better than pursuing two mutually exclusive strategies at the same time.

Anyway have an alternate set of Fleet Movements.

[][FLEET] Base Plan Shield
-[][FLEET] Fifth Fleet should link up with the S'Harien and the Enterprise in -5d.
-[][FLEET] Fourth Fleet to move to 15 Themis
-[][FLEET] Ask the Amarki to dispatch a flotilla (preferably 5-7 ships, headed up by a Riala) to Tales Har to reinforce Second Fleet.
-[][FLEET] Ask the Betazoids to dispatch a squadron (say, 3-4 ships) to Vega to reinforce First Fleet.
-[][FLEET] the Sarek should abandon the search for the Karak-Tor and retreat if the Cardassian fleet begins to approach its location.

So basically, you're doing the same things I do, except for issuing specific instructions to the Sarek, and moving up Fourth Fleet.

I'm not opposed to moving Fourth Fleet but it's the middle of the night in the US and morning in Europe, so I suspect a lot of our voters just haven't had time to comment on it.

I am opposed to issuing such orders to the Sarek. For one, high command may realistically not even be notified of the situation in time to do so. Just because we see, OOC, what is happening, doesn't mean everyone else in the galaxy does. For another, Straak is an experienced and intelligent captain, with no history of picking battles he can't win. I am quite sure he will withdraw the Sarek on his own initiative if he feels that his ship is endangered.

I really don't want to risk defeat in detail if the Cardassians decide to attack the ships sweeping for the Kadak-Tor.

If this is a Strangelove or a deception and the Cardassians are going to start a war, then grouping up defensivly is our best option. If they don't want to kick off a war then letting them hunt the Kadak-Tor while it is outside our space costs little, as we can likely intercept it when it crosses our borders.

To be clear, are you talking about grouping up the three Explorer Corps ships? Or are you talking about keeping Fifth Fleet hunkered down at 15 Themis?

If we are looking at a Red October, then the Kadak-Tor should be able to head into our space quite easily as it is well ahead of the Cardassian fleet, which we are not going to let across our borders.

If this is a case of Piracy/Theft, then we may lose the opportunity to capture the Kadak-Tor, but we avoid the risks of directly engaging the Cardassians and losing ships or starting a war. We also may still get the chance to capture it depending or where it is going.

In short I feel that dispersing our ships to find the Kadak-Tor is just too risky and we should avoid directly escalating the situation by putting ships in the Cardassians path outside our borders.

All the plans discussed so far involve more concentration, not more dispersal. The catch is that if the Cardassians are free to operate without interference, then:

1) If this is a ruse leading up to a war, or a Strangelove scenario that leads to the Cardassians deciding to attack, then their forces can just walk straight into attack position and completely ignore our best ships that are in the area, because we will have not interfered with them as they did so.
2) If this is a Strangelove scenario where the Cardassians are trying to stop the Kadak-Tor, we're reducing the number of ships capable of intercepting her, and we're basically leaving our Science 7 and 8 explorers out of it while a bunch of Science 3 and 4 Cardassian ships hunt for her.
3) If this is a Red October or piracy/theft scenario, we vastly increase the risk that the Cardassians will recapture their ship.

EDIT:
I am also in favour of telling our allies because warning everyone that there may be a hostile cloaked vessel lurking about is important. They are also are our allies, telling them what we think is going on is part our responsibilities to them.

Yeah, me too, that was built into my Alpha-Prime and Epsilon-1 plans yesterday for that exact reason.

lbmaian · Nov 21, 2016

Simon_Jester said:
If we were going to do that we should never have voted for Plan Alpha (or Epsilon-1) in the first place. We should have turtled up, let the Cardassians find the Kadak-Tor (assuming they ever intended to), and watch the whole thing blow over.

So yes, we need to move out our fleets if that is what helps us accomplish our objectives.

This isn't strictly true. Case Alpha pushed fleets to the borders and had the 3 rimward EC explorers act as a potential flanking force. Securing borders and searching for the Kadak-Tor outside of them are somewhat orthogonal. We could have turtled up at the borders and kept running patrols to try catching any entering Kadak-Tor, though it would be less effective at finding her.

Aeondrac said:
That is almost a sunk cost fallacy, arguing we have to do something because we moved into good position to do it is terrible policy.

With regard to the Sarek, there's the large risk that if she actually found the Kadak-Tor and was ordered to abandon the search, we may not find the Kadak-Tor again until it's too late (for some yet-unknown bad thing to happen).

Nix · Nov 21, 2016

Simon_Jester said:
If we were going to do that we should never have voted for Plan Alpha (or Epsilon-1) in the first place. We should have turtled up, let the Cardassians find the Kadak-Tor (assuming they ever intended to), and watch the whole thing blow over.

A big part of the logic of choosing a forward deployment was that it would be easy to switch back to a home deployment if the situation called for it, but it would probably be too late for switching the other way if we just waited. I'm not quite sure the situation does call for it, but if it does and we do switch back to a home deployment we have done everything right.

Aeondrac · Nov 21, 2016

Sending our ships out to actively hunt for the Kadak-Tor outside our borders places them directly in the path of the Cardassians while dispersing them, because they are looking for a single cloaked ship. If the Cardassians are going to start an actual war there is a good chance they will be able to roll over several ships while they are dispersed.

I am aware of the risk of losing the Kadak-Tor, but keeping track of the Kadak-Tor does us no good if the Cardassians kill multiple ships while we do it. If the Cardassians do start a war it is important we don't suffer easily preventable losses in the opening engagements.

Ultimately I feel preventing the Cardassians from being able inflict losses to us at minimal cost is more important than grabbing the Kadak-Tor While it is still outside our space. The Cardassian Fleet has much greater ability to hurt us than the Kadak-Tor.

Though that is a decent point about the Sarek, plan adjusted. I just realised I had the wrong grid reference for Fifth Fleet, I wanted the Enterprise and S'harien to join up in our territory.

Derek58 · Nov 21, 2016

[X][FLEET] Leave ships where they are

I don't want to redeploy any ships at the moment, making a vote to reflect that.

[X][NEWS] Allow

Nix · Nov 21, 2016

I think we are still missing something. If the Kadak-Tor were going to defect she could have just crossed the CBZ border. If she was going to hit Federation core worlds it doesn't make much sense for her to have gotten close enough to the Sarek to pick up sensor readings (unless the Sarek rolled really well and she isn't actually close?). That looks more like a course to either the Lecarre or the Klingons? Lecarre have been Cardassian clients for a while but are paranod, have been fed lies by the Cardassians and don't trust them. They also have excellent plastic surgery and infiltration. Could they have stolen the Kadak-Tor while trying to frame someone else?

Gadjo · Nov 21, 2016

[X][FLEET] Plan Sweep and Shield
[X][NEWS] Allow

lbmaian · Nov 21, 2016

Simon_Jester said:
Did what I've already done work?

Yes it works, but it doesn't allow combining plans as well, or proposing a plan and not voting for it. For an example of how the "Base Plan" feature works, see Aeondrac's vote.

Shouldn't really matter in this case.

Simon_Jester said:
I think we may have a misunderstanding. I said "handle [the Cardassian fleet] roughly." That isn't quite the same as "defeat."

Either one of our two task forces is strong enough that if the Cardassians fought a battle against it, their fleet would likely take significant damage and losses, and be a sitting duck for the other fleet. Unless this force came out here specifically intending to sacrifice itself in a battle of attrition, and given that we aren't going to attack them first with one of our individually slightly weaker task forces, I think we're covered.

You have to look at this not only from the point of view of the risks we face, but the risks the Cardassians face. From their point of view, their fleet hunting the Kadak-Tor is a lot closer to Federation space than to Cardassia. Three "Enterprise-class" explorers (the kind that soloed a pair of their ships a few years ago) are on one side of them, and a Federation fleet of six ships, including another explorer, a cruiser, and four escorts is on the other side.

It's like, suppose you have an army of thirty thousand men, and you are between two armies of twenty-five thousand men. Are you going to see this as a good position to be in, or a bad one?

Maybe they can win that fight, and maybe they can't, but they aren't in a position to make threats that stick, as long both of our task force commanders play it smart and avoid tangling with the entire Cardassian fleet by themselves.

It depends on whether the other fleet can arrive in time if the Cardassian fleet engages one. Remember that combat in Star Trek takes hours at most, while travel times require days within a grid square.

There's always the chance that the Cardassian fleet could inflict damage on one of our fleets, then warp away to meet potentially incoming reinforcements (that Cardassian fleet currently near Indoria). If it manages to take on the explorer task force without 5th fleet able to assist, then they actually have a decent chance of escaping afterwards, because 5th fleet is bogged down by slower escorts. Any ships the Cardassians are forced to leave behind, like the escorts or sufficiently damaged ships, are considered expendable as long as the attrition dealt is sufficient.

It would be a risky maneuver, but it theoretically could happen. Well, maybe Oneiros will treat any two fleets in the same grid as joined together automatically, but I'm not going to count on that. I'm going to be explicit in my vote about it.

Furthermore, our Explorer Corps ships are exposed by default. They're already vulnerable. Our only real choice is to send Fifth Fleet out to reinforce them, or not. If we don't send out Fifth Fleet, then the Cardassians have the option of attacking our explorers, probably winning, taking the Kadak-Tor home with them, and in general winning a decisive victory as the opening round of a war and gutting the Explorer Corps.

And I'm fine with that, but I want to minimize as much risk while doing that as possible.

So here's a plan that should be clearer to emphasize safety.

[X][FLEET] Base Plan Sweep and Reinforce
-[X][FLEET] Movement: Have USS S'harien and USS Enterprise link up with USS Sarek to form the "Explorers" task force to help with the search for the Kadak-Tor.
-[X][FLEET] Movement: Have 5th fleet (15 Themis) link up with the Explorers task force at whatever location they're currently at.
-[X][FLEET] Rules of Engagement for 5th fleet and Explorers task force: Defensive posture (do not fire until fired upon). Retreat when outgunned. Prioritize linking up over retreating to outposts/bases.
-[X][FLEET] Movement: Have 4th fleet (Pygmalion) move rimward to reinforce 5th fleet, keeping at least 5ly away from Dawiar territory.
-[X][FLEET] Diplomacy: Ask the Amarki to dispatch a flotilla (preferably 5-7 ships, headed up by a Riala) to Tales Har to reinforce Second Fleet.
-[X][FLEET] Diplomacy: Ask the Betazoids to dispatch a squadron (say, 3-4 ships) to Vega to reinforce First Fleet.

[X][FLEET] Plan Sweep and Reinforce
[X][NEWS] Allow
-[X][NEWS] Privately, inform the council and our affiliate governments that we suspect this may be a trick.

I'm still considering whether to have 4th fleet at Pygmalion move up to be able to reinforce more quickly. Although that leaves an opening toward Landle and Andor, in an actual war, KBZ and neighboring member world fleets should be able to reinforce those two systems in time. If 4th fleet is in Caitain territory grid squares, and it turns out there's going to be attack up the Landle route, 4th fleet should be able to return in time.

3rd fleet at Ord Grind Duk should be left as a reserve regardless, since it as able to reinforce either the coreward or rimward borders.

edit: Decided to include the 4th fleet movement.
~~edit2: changed wording on NEWS write-in to not be as strong~~
edit3: Changing "Rules of Engagement: 5th fleet and Explorers task force are to avoid confrontation with Cardassian fleets until 5th fleet and Explorers task force link up, taking advantage of superior sensors and taking into account any slower ships in 5th fleet. Afterwards, revert to standard ROEs." => "Rules of Engagement for 5th fleet and Explorers task force: Defensive posture (do not fire until fired upon). Retreat when outgunned. Prioritize linking up over retreating to outposts/bases."

Random Member · Nov 21, 2016

Nix said:
I think we are still missing something. If the Kadak-Tor were going to defect she could have just crossed the CBZ border. If she was going to hit Federation core worlds it doesn't make much sense for her to have gotten close enough to the Sarek to pick up sensor readings (unless the Sarek rolled really well and she isn't actually close?). That looks more like a course to either the Lecarre or the Klingons? Lecarre have been Cardassian clients for a while but are paranod, have been fed lies by the Cardassians and don't trust them. They also have excellent plastic surgery and infiltration. Could they have stolen the Kadak-Tor while trying to frame someone else?

Heh, maybe it is a Klingon 'return home' program. If so, I wonder what the Klingons and Cardassians are going to do once it reaches Klingon space.

Nix · Nov 21, 2016

@OneirosTheWriter could you tell us the approximate direction and distance of the sensor readings the Sarek picked up? As in, less than a subsector away or not?

Aeondrac · Nov 21, 2016

Well it could always be the AI ghost of Genereal Chang and his goal is to lead the Klingon Empire to greatness once again.

At the moment it looks like it is heading for the Enterprise or to Daiwar/Lecarre/Klingon space.

It could still be a Red October, it just would just be a Klingon Red October.

Actually if the bit about a Legate's son being on board is true, then we could have a rogue idiot out to attack the Enterprise for glory and acclaim.

Random Member · Nov 21, 2016

OneirosTheWriter said:
Starbase at Apinae reports anomalous warp signature readings in the vicinity of 2f.

Group B is holding position at the Aries Expanse near Dawiar space.

Cardassian Group C and D are now in -4e. Sensor readings confirm:
2 Kaldar
2 Jaldun
2 Takaaki Combat Variant
1 Medium Escort

Cardassian Group E+F have moved to Sub-Sector -3g and linked up, with approximately 6 ships.

You know, all these movements put them in the perfect position to hit the CBZ, the Apinae, the Indorians, the Seyek, the Caitians, the Orions and possibly Risa simultaneously within 2 weeks. Just saying.

Leila Hann · Nov 21, 2016

Random Member said:
You know, all these movements put them in the perfect position to hit the CBZ, the Apinae, the Indorians, the Seyek, the Caitians, the Orions and possibly Risa simultaneously within 2 weeks. Just saying.

Oh I do hope so. If they provoke everyone at once we are going to roflstomp them.

lbmaian · Nov 21, 2016

Nix said:
I think we are still missing something. If the Kadak-Tor were going to defect she could have just crossed the CBZ border. If she was going to hit Federation core worlds it doesn't make much sense for her to have gotten close enough to the Sarek to pick up sensor readings (unless the Sarek rolled really well and she isn't actually close?). That looks more like a course to either the Lecarre or the Klingons? Lecarre have been Cardassian clients for a while but are paranod, have been fed lies by the Cardassians and don't trust them. They also have excellent plastic surgery and infiltration. Could they have stolen the Kadak-Tor while trying to frame someone else?

Well, the Kadak-Tor could simply be aiming for the Enterprise. Though I'm not sure how they would've gotten the Enterprise's location without the Enterprise catching any tailing ships.

Would be hilarious if the Lecarre actually stole the ship, but unless the Lecarre plan to appeal to the Federation for protection from retribution, that's an idiotic plan for them.

Klingons? If the Klingons somehow get into the picture, now that's going to be interesting.

Nix · Nov 21, 2016

Updated for fleet movements. Position of the Sarek only approximate.

aeqnai · Nov 21, 2016

...what's that on 2f?

To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

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