@Erandil :
There are a lot of innocent reasons you might not have yet replied to my question asking for clarification of the rather insulting way you opened your post. I am not accusing you of dodging that question, but I will repeat it here, then reply to the rest since I can delay no further, and must assume you meant what I think you meant.
I don't think that The Hishmeri Septs are some dark, alien threat from Deep Space hell-bent on destroying and plundering the Federation who are too stupid to understand that enraging the Federation is a less than optimal idea without having shoved a massive fleet into their face.
It seems to me that you are attributing or at least implying that this is my opinion.
Despite the many posts I have in the last several pages emphasizing that the Hishmeri are almost certainly
nowhere near as villainous as some posters made them out to be. I am insulted. But- moving on.
I mean really, we have talked with them on several occasions now (and they had some time to talk with the other factions in the region too) which one would suspect is more than enough to convey some idea of just who and how powerful we are - those are not some illiterate barbarians incapable imagining anything beyond their own limited existence/territory but a culture that may well be older than the Federation itself, capable of reason and logic.
Yes, but we
also know that they have a habit of raiding when they think they can get away with it. Nomadic cultures that practice raiding against settled peoples tend to have a related complex of behaviors and practices. Such as a belief in gaining glory and status through successful raids, an awareness that superficially strong defenses often conceal hidden weaknesses, and an automatic skepticism towards outsiders trying to drive them away with mere words. All these secondary traits are
necessary to perpetuate the raiding culture among an intelligent, competent group of people.
It is very important that we convince them that raiding us is a worse choice than flying around our space,
before they reach our space. As much before that time as possible; preferably most of their fleet will divert course and go away before it even gets within one or two subsectors of our border. Some septs may not get the word, or may not believe we're as formidable as we're made out to be, and they will probably push closer and maybe even try to penetrate into our space. But if we show a fear of engaging the Septs in combat, they are likely to parse that as us doubting our
ability to do so.
This does not mean we have to fight them. But it
does mean we have to go out of our way a bit to convince them we have the ability and the will to fight them.
Basically, they're an old nomadic polity that's seen a lot. They've probably seen tough, well-organized empires that can drive them off easily. But they've probably
also seen collapsing empires and loose confederations that an ambitious bunch of raiders can swoop in on, where raiders can settle into a single area, and live like kings while pillaging constantly. Remember that this is exactly what the Hurq found when they invaded our region of space- it's happened before and tales of it happening are probably still around on some level.
So are we a tough organized power that can drive them off easily? Or are we a decadent empire that lacks the power to muster a strong defense? From the Hishmeri's point of view, there are only a few ways to really
know the answer to that question. Listening to our diplomats probably isn't one of them... but seeing one of our fleets show up in enough force to deter their operations
is.
The sooner they encounter this physical evidence of our ability to organize and defend ourselves, the better, because the less the risk will be of them coming
close to our space and having a few specific septs trigger incidents by being "too close."
The idea of strengthening the patrols the border is not so that we can intercept waves of attacks like a bulwark but simply to make it clear to them that we are watching them, that this is our space and that attacking us won't go unnoticed. If they aren't criminally stupid that and some clear talk should be more than enough to convince them to stay away... You don't need a massive fleet to do that which is why it is cheaper, easier and safer to do so.
The problem is that if the Hishmeri see
only a small fleet, they have little reason to avoid raiding. They know that we know that they're coming, so they will assume that the ships they see protecting the border are a pretty representative sample of all the ships we have available to protect that border. If they see the border fleet scattered out in penny packets of one or two ships separated by days of flight time, they're likely to think that if they move quickly or stealthily, or if they concentrate effectively, they may be able to cut past the border patrols and hit vulnerable border targets, then escape our space before we can catch up with them. They may even be right.
If they see large, well organized fleets capable of overawing their raiding squadrons, operating independently to contest the space near our border... they have much more reason to take the strength of our defenses seriously. Furthermore, the operations of such a fleet will ALSO discourage the Hishmeri from loitering in the subsectors near the border while claiming to be free to do as they please in "unclaimed territory." Because that is
also a scenario that could readily lend itself to trouble.
Hishmeri loitering on our doorstep aren't as bad as Hishmeri physically in our space, but they
are bad enough to make me think we'd need the same kind of 'big fleet' against them when they loiter at the border than the kind that we'd need to operate out in unclaimed space.
Ah yes, the "preemptive strike" school of thought on "Defense".
This is a grossly dishonest way to present my recommendations.
The bare suggestion that we dispatch a large fleet into unclaimed space is not REMOTELY the same as advocating a 'preemptive strike' on the Hishmeri. I am extremely comfortable with the idea of drafting rules of engagement that prohibit Federation forces from firing first on the Hishmeri under any circumstances,
except (if the Council so pleases) to enforce ultimatums the Council sees fit to draft, such as "don't do anything to the prewarp planet without the locals' consent" or "don't cross this plane in space."
It would undermine the point of sending the fleet if there were no such exceptions, but I would
still consider this plan better than passively waiting at the border and hoping they take our hints that we don't want them around.
A concentrated 60C task force might well be able to convince many Hishmeri that the Federation is tough enough to not be worth trying to raid by operating well away from the border. The same task force, spread out across the border, is unlikely to be able to do that if the Hishmeri are willing to take enough risks.
Alternatively we could stay within our borders and actually defend our territory.
There is literally no 'international law' of any kind prohibiting us from sending a fleet into unclaimed space, or telling us it is wrong to do so. I do not for the life of me understand where this objection of yours is coming from.
They have free passage in unclaimed space, and unless the council is declaring war on the back of the pre-warp incident, we should not hinder them. We could send diplomatic envoys to them with navigational data on our borders and convey exactly how unwelcome they are, we can also send a humanitarian mission to those needing assistance.
Should we hinder them from robbing or plundering prewarp civilizations in the area? And don't say "that is up to the Council." The point is, we
can't do that unless we're prepared to operate a task force outside our space. And such a task force will significantly enhance our ability to convince the Hishmeri to go away, because they won't have to cross our border to find out that we are actually able to cope with them.
It's not a preemptive strike if all we do is encourage them to take another route via Klingon Negotiation (Show of Force) and if the other option is to stay inside our borders until a 200C raiderball shows up. Or multiple 50C raiderballs.
I'm in favor of aggressive (by Federation standards) action - intercepting them early, and conducting negotiations with the help of some Excelsiors.
Very much this. I don't want to fight the Hishmeri, but it's imperative that we convince them to go away, and minimize the harm that they do on our watch. At the very least, we need to signal to them that we are not merely a decadent, overripe power for them to try to pluck... because if they believe that up to the moment they cross our border, we will have to fight some very unpleasant battles to convince them otherwise.
