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Some of the fudge factors still seemed to be fine when I looked. And lvl 1 across the board was only mildly risky. lvl 4 or higher was pretty ridiculous, and I don't really want lvl 2 or 3 across the board either.
To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)
- Thread starter OneirosTheWriter
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aledeth
The Flesh is Weak
- Pronouns
- He/Him
What is an acceptable level of reliability in your opinion?
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- somewhere
Depends on the ship type. I'd be a lot more willing to accept hilarious malfunctions in our science ships (Oberth successor) than in our defense cruisers. The latter I want to just work. 99% reliability or greater.
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If you think a reliable Renaissance is a decade away, does that change the math on doing the Constitution refit as a light cruiser? I am very worried about depending on Centaurs. We have heard repeatedly that a Constellation is no match for a "standard" Cardassian ship, which means that a Centaur probably isn't either. Given that our encounters with the Cardassians tend to be single ship events and skirmishes, we have to ensure that any ship that encounters them can survive on its own.
Maybe that Constitution refit is a good stopgap after all.
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Fwiw, "Annual Hilarious Breakdown Chance" doesn't actually mean that the ship blows up. Mostly it gets an event, and some variant of unfortunateness occurs to it. Usually short of blowing up.
Do be careful as to how far you push the warp related fudge factors though, no one wants a warp core pushed to the edge and ready to blow.
Except the Gaeni, of course. That's right up their alley.
Do be careful as to how far you push the warp related fudge factors though, no one wants a warp core pushed to the edge and ready to blow.
Except the Gaeni, of course. That's right up their alley.
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I don't know how long it is away, it depends on what the final version of the reliability calculations looks like and how much normal techs do for us, which I haven't really tried to calculate. Some of those, particularly the warp tech ones, don't have numbers attached.
Some of the delay in starting the project will correspond to a shorter project as well, probably starting construction of the prototype the year after the request.
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- Australia
I won't be able to get a Captain's Log up tonight, but I will try to get the Research Results up tonight, and see what I can do as far as quantifying some of the techs goes. But easier now with the sheet to plug them in to.
Maybe not. In both Star Trek 1 and 4 the Enterprise was the ONLY ship in range of Sol when an emergency happened. And there's no evidence that Star Fleet had more than a handful of ships during TOS.
If I remember rightly, the roleplaying games explained this by saying most of the Federation's fleet strength was in member world's defense forces back then. (Which of course changed by the time of TNG and DS9, where Star Fleet is shown to have hundreds of ships and member races don't seem to have any significant military power of their own.)
Um. Is there a write up of how this mechanic works anywhere? 'Cuz if there is, I can't find it.
fasquardon
- Location
- somewhere
That makes me really glad we didn't choose to take a break from researching warp technology, considering how dangerous trying to compensate with fudge factors will be now.
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
I'd need the weighted average effects of failure to calculate such a thing.Can someone do the calculus to come up with an optimal balance between tech level and reliability?
Shipbuilding Spreadsheet Revised
(same link as previous)
So I considerably updated the shipbuilding spreadsheet based on comments and requests:
1. There is now conditional formatting that turns the resource cells Red if you ever drop below 0, so you can immediately tell if you built too deep and too greedily.
2. You now have the option to both request an Excelsior's worth of resources and to order a Temporary Explorer's Corps recruitment drive. The numbers will calculate correctly.
3. The sheet now checks if there is anything in the "Actual Resources after shipbuilding in current year" cells on the stats sheet and calculates off that if anything has been entered. This will keep it from drifting too far off whack, as we can update each year to account for what we actually have.
4. I added a Renassiance Prototype, with a 5 Year (I know it's really 4.5) build time. Remember you need to build that before any of the normal Renaissance ships.
5. Not new, but remember you need to write EX4EX in the cell if you intend for it to be an Explorer Corps Excelsior and draw from that crew pool.
Play around and plan your fleet! I will likely create a "fleet tracker" worksheet that translates the builds into total fleet and total Combat/Defense/Science.
(same link as previous)
So I considerably updated the shipbuilding spreadsheet based on comments and requests:
1. There is now conditional formatting that turns the resource cells Red if you ever drop below 0, so you can immediately tell if you built too deep and too greedily.
2. You now have the option to both request an Excelsior's worth of resources and to order a Temporary Explorer's Corps recruitment drive. The numbers will calculate correctly.
3. The sheet now checks if there is anything in the "Actual Resources after shipbuilding in current year" cells on the stats sheet and calculates off that if anything has been entered. This will keep it from drifting too far off whack, as we can update each year to account for what we actually have.
4. I added a Renassiance Prototype, with a 5 Year (I know it's really 4.5) build time. Remember you need to build that before any of the normal Renaissance ships.
5. Not new, but remember you need to write EX4EX in the cell if you intend for it to be an Explorer Corps Excelsior and draw from that crew pool.
Play around and plan your fleet! I will likely create a "fleet tracker" worksheet that translates the builds into total fleet and total Combat/Defense/Science.
UbeOne
Daydreaming CPU
- Location
- Philippines
- Pronouns
- She/Her
On second thought, I'd prefer all ships to be at least 99% reliable. Failure is not an option.
You could ask Oneiros in a conversation for a link to the design program, and try to calculate what you need from there.
SuperSonicSound
Shadowmancer of the Shadow Cabal
Well, there goes my idea of designing a super efficient fudge factor five saucer for usage in both cruisers and explorers. Adding an immediate .5% chance of failure to every ship with it would be kind of silly.
Oh come on, it's not that bad. 95% means we get a failure once every 20 years, and it's almost certainly something dealt with and finished.
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It's actually not as bad as that. The underlying calcs may be a little opaque, but only the Hull's reliability component tags into the Reused Saucer/Secondary factors, and even that, a factor 5 saucer comes out to 25/4000, and then there's another crunch applied to it all at the end.
Basically, this is here just to provide a slightly more practical trade-off beyond research time to the fudge factors, and to give individual ships a little extra character (depending on your factors in each ship). Don't be too scared by them.
SuperSonicSound
Shadowmancer of the Shadow Cabal
Hmm I'd suggesting for combat ready ships we want 98%+ reliability, non combat designated vessels around 95%. Amusingly the break down chance for Galaxy class starships is probably something like 15-20% given how often the holodeck malfunctioned in TNG never mind all the other ship systems that went haywire at some point
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Hmm I'd suggesting for combat ready ships we want 98%+ reliability, non combat designated vessels around 95%. Amusingly the break down chance for Galaxy class starships is probably something like 15-20% given how often the holodeck malfunctioned in TNG never mind all the other ship systems that went haywire at some point
Why the distinction? It's an annual breakdown chance, so it's not like it's going to come up in the middle of combat. The most annoying part is it takes ships out of service for a while.
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More like 200-400% breakdown chance (or rather 2-4 expected breakdowns per year, one roll each week) for Galaxy and Intrepid. 15-20% would mean one breakdown every 5-6 years on average.Hmm I'd suggesting for combat ready ships we want 98%+ reliability, non combat designated vessels around 95%. Amusingly the break down chance for Galaxy class starships is probably something like 15-20% given how often the holodeck malfunctioned in TNG never mind all the other ship systems that went haywire at some point
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Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
I could just put a base formula here - Full accuracy is somewhat problematic. Number of years for which ship is expected to last is also quite important.
Let the weighted failure F per year be as such: Consequence of Failure A * Probability of Failure A + Consequences of Failure B....
(A consequence of 'Ship blows up' would likely be worth 1, assuming there are literally no political affects from a ship blowing up)
Let ship performance P be as such: Base Performace + Bonus from Fudge Factors
Let the number of years we expect the ship to be in service to be Y.
Weighted ship performance by each year = P*(1-F)^Y
(This means a ship is expected to degrade in usefulness by factor 1-F each year.)
Calculating optimal fudge factors involves quite a bit of factors. And becomes very complicated, particularly if some of the problems are simply 'repair time for 1 year' or '-1 Combat forever'.
(A consequence of 'Ship blows up' would likely be worth 1, assuming there are literally no political affects from a ship blowing up)
Let ship performance P be as such: Base Performace + Bonus from Fudge Factors
Let the number of years we expect the ship to be in service to be Y.
Weighted ship performance by each year = P*(1-F)^Y
(This means a ship is expected to degrade in usefulness by factor 1-F each year.)
Calculating optimal fudge factors involves quite a bit of factors. And becomes very complicated, particularly if some of the problems are simply 'repair time for 1 year' or '-1 Combat forever'.
Is there an estimate on how the Refit version of the Constellation would stack up? Would the extra Combat be enough, or still inferior?
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- Australia
They'd have equivalent combat, but they'd trail in durability. The Jaldun-class is a 1,200,000 ton cruiser, compared to the Constellation has barely half that, so keep that in mind when you compare them. But the refit will help them deal with most Cardassian escorts. ("most", @anon_user did a great job there)