Godwinson
"Well, I've got nothing."
A few issues with your analysis, which I unfortunately will have to spaghetify a bit, so I'm putting into spoiler tags to be considerate to others:
To summarize, the actual benefits are arguable between them, especially by the time the research is finished, with Tech-Ship Doctrine plausibly being stronger in combat, depending on how balancing works out. However the main issue still is that it would be investing RP into research to exchange bonuses, when that RP could be applied to research that would simply provide more bonuses, and that is what tilts the cost-benefit analysis decisively against shifting from Lone Ranger to Tech-Ship. Because it's not a decision between those two, it's a decision between swapping them or gaining more bonuses on top of what we already have.
This isn't actually quite accurate.Both doctrines have a +5% combat when certain conditions are met (Outnumbered for LR, have greater Science for TS).
The Tech-Ship Doctrine gives a slightly higher chance that when a new turn begins, it will be a Tech-Ship that goes.Attack Pattern Sigma: +5% Fleet Weight when fleet has more S
Attack Pattern Echo: +5% Fleet Combat when outnumbered
The issue is that we want our Explorers to be the ones more often responding to events, because Escorts are less likely to pass any checks.Both have a +1 to response roll for ships that meet criteria (have S = or > C for TS, cruiser or explorer for LR), but LR gives +2 to explorers.
This a double-edged sword, because if we get two ships responding to one event and another one fires without more ships available, we miss the second event. Considering how thinly spread Starfleet is going to continue to be, even when we return to regular operations, I'd argue this is actually a downside.
This is really the biggest actual combat difference between them. The improvements to shields when outnumbered has been a decisive factor in a few battles already, while shield burnthrough is currently on the "may be overpowered" part of the balancing cycle, much like how shield regeneration was a bit ago.
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