A few issues with your analysis, which I unfortunately will have to spaghetify a bit, so I'm putting into spoiler tags to be considerate to others:
Both doctrines have a +5% combat when certain conditions are met (Outnumbered for LR, have greater Science for TS).
This isn't actually quite accurate.
Attack Pattern Sigma: +5% Fleet Weight when fleet has more S

Attack Pattern Echo: +5% Fleet Combat when outnumbered
The Tech-Ship Doctrine gives a slightly higher chance that when a new turn begins, it will be a Tech-Ship that goes.
Both have a +1 to response roll for ships that meet criteria (have S = or > C for TS, cruiser or explorer for LR), but LR gives +2 to explorers.
The issue is that we want our Explorers to be the ones more often responding to events, because Escorts are less likely to pass any checks.
TS does allow for +1 additional responding ship.
This a double-edged sword, because if we get two ships responding to one event and another one fires without more ships available, we miss the second event. Considering how thinly spread Starfleet is going to continue to be, even when we return to regular operations, I'd argue this is actually a downside.
[...]gives +1L when outnumbered 2:1[...]adds S to burnthrough
This is really the biggest actual combat difference between them. The improvements to shields when outnumbered has been a decisive factor in a few battles already, while shield burnthrough is currently on the "may be overpowered" part of the balancing cycle, much like how shield regeneration was a bit ago.
To summarize, the actual benefits are arguable between them, especially by the time the research is finished, with Tech-Ship Doctrine plausibly being stronger in combat, depending on how balancing works out. However the main issue still is that it would be investing RP into research to exchange bonuses, when that RP could be applied to research that would simply provide more bonuses, and that is what tilts the cost-benefit analysis decisively against shifting from Lone Ranger to Tech-Ship. Because it's not a decision between those two, it's a decision between swapping them or gaining more bonuses on top of what we already have.
 
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there is so much irresponsible science on this thing I can't even... I mean on a mentat ship you have a standard ship and then one or two utterly insane science things, but this thing reads like each individual part was built by a half mentat and then a truly insane mentat fused them all together while laughing madly. It fits the gani perfectly and while I'm very glad they are on our side, you could not pay me enough to set foot on that deathtrap.
And then you realize that it isn't even their most advanced ships, merely their mainline cruiser. Imagine what the specs for their Tech Explorer looks like, and then realize that as things are planned, our Ambassador is set to equal said vessel in science.
 
Now draw Tech-Cruiser someone grafted Rennie engineering section as closest substitute for emergency repairs they found after ejecting Engineering section.
 
there is so much irresponsible science on this thing I can't even... I mean on a mentat ship you have a standard ship and then one or two utterly insane science things, but this thing reads like each individual part was built by a half mentat and then a truly insane mentat fused them all together while laughing madly. It fits the gani perfectly and while I'm very glad they are on our side, you could not pay me enough to set foot on that deathtrap.

Gaeni Supervisor, to Licori: "Oh, you think mad science is your ally, but you merely adopted mad science. We were born in it. Molded by it. We didn't see common sense until we were already spacefaring."
 
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Omake - Ensign Reuben Sees the Future
Something that almost certainly happened, but wouldn't have been important enough to show. Before you run off to Memory Alpha: I'm not clever enough for what you're thinking.

Ensign Reuben Sees The Future

Ensign Clara Reuben was, officially, a Sensor Analyst, 1st Rate. But in actuality, she was a spy, from a long line of spies. Not in the cloak-and-dagger-and-dead-drop sense. In previous eras she would have been called a photo analyst. Previous to that weird neighbor with a telescope. She actually did have a telescope in her quarters too.

Right now she was pouring over their scans of the new Enterprise, writing notes out on a PADD with a stylus, scribbled comments like "venturi shape = work pods thrust = 4kN? They carry work pods!", "shuttle warp engines 1+ cochrane each!", "warp field coils misaligned badly", "vulcanoid andorians!" and so forth.

"Ensign." Oh fiddlesticks. That was Commander Spock.

"Sir." Still she didn't look away from the visual image she was scrutinizing. If it had been Kirk, or Sulu, she would have stood to attention and saluted instantly, but Spock would understand that her focus and time were precious. "My preliminary opinion is that yes, it's a Federation starship. Aside from the obvious design heritage, I've identified members of all four Federation founding races aboard and at least one current affiliate, the Caitians." A snort. "Not that it was hard to do so for the Caitians. Captain Mrr'Shan's coloration and speech patterns are traceable to the Fyrrr region of Ferasa. They also have at least one male Orion aboard that I've seen. There are several species aboard I don't recognize but presumably they represent affiliates or ratified members from the future."

"Ratified members, Ensign?" She could hear the raised eyebrow.

"I know the political outlook on ratification of any current Federation affiliate is rather dim, sir. The conference area off the bridge has a plaque indicating the ship has participated in several ratification ceremonies for new Federation members. Amarki, 2306. Betazed, 2308. Apinae, 2313. I've tentatively identified the blue vulcanoid species as the Amarki. There are several mentions of Betazed in our databanks, passed along by other species we've encountered, but no direct Federation contact. Apinae I don't know anything about. The crew is much more diverse than our own."

"Your assessment of the ship itself?"

"Hard to say, sir, but I wouldn't suggest attempting to engage it even with its damage." Reuben pointed at the image she was examining, a near-infrared shot of one of the nacelles. "Look at the condition of their warp coils. The level of misalignment here would have blown our nacelles apart, so they've been running hard over spec for some time and obviously understand warp fields better than we do. Their torpedo yield is twice ours on a torpedo that would actually fit in our launchers, though it's about a tenth more massive. Phaser output is below twice ours but still better. The whiff we got of their sensors in targeting mode would suggest theirs are twice or better the power and resolution of ours." She chewed her lip briefly. "I can't make real guess at what kind of facilities it has for diplomacy or the like, but it has plenty of internal space to use for that, assuming it hasn't got a bunch of sensor, power, or weapons capability in reserve. And from what Captain ka'Sharren said, I doubt it does." Back to the lip chewing as she continued to survey individual windows and the rooms beyond them. "I don't see any reason to think it's some kind of ruse. Too much fine detail."

"Speak freely, Ensign."

"Just personal affirmation, sir. The future is carried forward on the backs of a hundred thousand unknown workers, toiling to make it happen. If that ship is the future of Starfleet, then whatever small part I played in making it happen was worth the effort."

She could hear the raised eyebrow again. But it didn't come with a question. "Indeed."

I suppose somewhere in SFI there's a Captain Ruebens these days, peering at subspace telemetry images of Cardassian shipyards and occasionally sneaking peeks at the hand-made Excelsior model she made after the project was announced, but before the blueprints were available to anyone. It's oddly accurate, considering...
 
there is so much irresponsible science on this thing I can't even... I mean on a mentat ship you have a standard ship and then one or two utterly insane science things, but this thing reads like each individual part was built by a half mentat and then a truly insane mentat fused them all together while laughing madly. It fits the gani perfectly and while I'm very glad they are on our side, you could not pay me enough to set foot on that deathtrap.
Oh, no. Each individual part was build by a half mentat and then bureaucracy mashed them together and less mad gaeni engineers were forced to make something coherent-ish and workable out of it. While laughing through tears. Effect is similar, but worse.
 
Does our Excelsior refit bump S over C?

If only there was a hybrid option that focused on lone Explorer class big ships with S over C... maybe after researching some of each of the two options, a hybrid of the two?
 
Something that almost certainly happened, but wouldn't have been important enough to show. Before you run off to Memory Alpha: I'm not clever enough for what you're thinking.



I suppose somewhere in SFI there's a Captain Ruebens these days, peering at subspace telemetry images of Cardassian shipyards and occasionally sneaking peeks at the hand-made Excelsior model she made after the project was announced, but before the blueprints were available to anyone. It's oddly accurate, considering...

I wonder if research on the Excelsior had already begun by the time Kirk's ship got plucked from. The prototype was completed during "The Search for Spock," so its possible. Perhaps this was even taken as a good omen, since Kirk's crew got a good look at the Ent-B's capabilities when it chased off the Blank Slate.

I'm pretty sure we knew about the Betazoids in Kirk's time, though. The thread consensus, when the topic came up last time, was that the "Deltans" from TMP were basically just renamed as "Betazoids" in TNG. They were probably a new affiliate at that time.

I do wonder about the Amarki. While we didn't have any official contact with them until Nash's 5YM, the Amarki control a pretty reasonable patch of space, are neighbors with the Caitians, and have had a very long history with the Orions. Federation colonists and traders had certainly met their Amarki counterparts at Orion or Caitian trading hubs by Kirk's time, but I wonder how much information makes it back to the government in those cases?
 
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Though the cruiser's three "sigma pattern" phaser banks - located on the aft engineering section, the sensor module, and the prow - are relatively low powered, they interact with the tech-cruiser's powerful sensors and distributed computer/cyborg command nodes in a manner that compensates for their mediocre output. Each phaser fires two shots in extremely rapid succession, with the second shot being recalibrated at the last microsecond to exploit even the smallest shield instability left by the first, maximizing its damage to the enemy's shields and standing a good chance of burnthrough.
By the way, that reminds me, if anyone needs an idea for a unique weapons system or some fluff for a critical hit, there's a very interesting page from the notes for writers of TNG that later became the tech manual:
Idk if this works with the tech as later described. For some reason, I've begun to think of it as Mrr'shann's signature move when she was a tactical officer and it's now, by extension, the Enterprise's.

e: it also has a logical problem: why is the torpedo not pushed back as the shield snaps back into place? I assume it must mean the whole shield reforms or something.
 
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I'm pretty sure we knew about the Betazoids in Kirk's time, though. The thread consensus, when the topic came up last time, was that the "Deltans" from TMP were basically retconned into the Betazoids. They were probably a new affiliate at that time.

They know of the Betazoids, but they've never actually met them at this point. Since nobody's mentioned M'Ress fainting at the sight of a Caitian commanding the Enterprise-B or any movie characters, I'm assuming this takes place during the three seasons of the TV show, and "Kirk's time" covers at least two FYM of which that's only the starting three years.
 
Speaking of time travel, I've been playing around with the idea of an omake to explain the TOS episode Assignment: Earth where the Enterprise is sent on a time travel mission back to 1960's Earth for purposes of historical observation.

My working theory is that it's bureaucratic incompetence. The Bureau of Temporal Affairs was straight-up not expecting one of the Federation's starships to develop a method of time travel that requires nothing but a warp drive and a gravity well. So they literally did not get the memo in time that the Enterprise had discovered slingshot-based time travel in the episode Tomorrow is Yesterday. (They may have been distracted by setting up containment measures for the Guardian of Forever, which was also discovered around this time.)

Instead whomever was in charge of the Explorer Corps at the time got the report and declared, "We better test this more thoroughly. Let's send them on a peaceful mission of historical observation to make sure this method is reliable." Then when the Enterprise gets back from Assignment: Earth there's a huge freak-out from Temporal Affairs, a lot of breathing into paper bags, and the whole thing gets classified to hell.
 
Lets just ignore the slingshot thing? If time travel was that easy, then every warp-capable species would discover it pretty quickly.
@Amorous Intent once had an interesting theory that if a journey using the slingshot method would end up changing the past in any significant way, particularly causing a paradox, your ship explodes during the initial process as a sort of causality-check. For example, going back in time and grabbing two humpback whales - not a major revision to history, your ship doesn't explode. Going back to kill your own grandfather, the temporal instability from the paradox causes your ship to fucking explode. Go back and step on a butterfly, thus preventing the birth of Zephram Cochrane who built your actual goddamn engine, ship explodes. Go back to kill Archer, paradox, your ship explodes. This is why it's not very popular -- any ship making such a temporal dive is at constant risk of TPK even for seemingly innocuous missions, and why there's very little disturbance even if it's relatively simple to do. Your mission go to observe the birth of Kirk might go end up with your atoms scattered across seven light years because during that mission you knocked over a statuary and prevented Va'kel Shonn from being born or some shit. Or you could flat-up kill a man and nothing happens. The further back you go, the bigger the risk.

There's a few problems to this idea -- first, what determines the level of flexibility in the timeline before it snaps brutally back? Isn't it kinda weird that the universe 'knows' you're going to fuck up? And even though it's hard pass/hard fail, you'd expect more crazy people to try it anyways. Probably more than this.

I figure the last part can be explained, in part, that the process is highly dangerous to attempt even assuming you don't conjure a temporal pair-of-socks, and that more ships fail than succeed. It makes Assignment: Earth look like a particularly risky mission (although perhaps it was orchestrated by Gary-7 in the future anyways), but I think it really works for The Voyage Home. It makes the Enterprise crew look even more heroic -- stealing a humpback is the kind of screaming no-no they warn you about in temporal mechanics, and so they're going into that slingshot assuming they'll blow the fuck up.
 
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Lets just ignore the slingshot thing? If time travel was that easy, then every warp-capable species would discover it pretty quickly.

If it was a one-shot thing I could ignore it, but it's a pretty core part of the Star Trek IV movie.

My theory is that all theoretical mathematics say that attempting the slingshot maneuver should only result in the destruction of the ship. It's only possible to discover the secret of temporal warp if you accidentally take a ship into a gravity well, try to warp away, and by the purest luck hit whatever balance between warp factor and gravitational force sends the ship through time rather than ripping it in half. You'd have to chew through thousands or millions of warp capable ships to discover it through trial and error. But once it actually happened, Spock was able to reverse engineer the equation that makes it work.
 
My theory is that all theoretical mathematics say that attempting the slingshot maneuver should only result in the destruction of the ship. It's only possible to discover the secret of temporal warp if you accidentally take a ship into a gravity well, try to warp away, and by the purest luck hit whatever balance between warp factor and gravitational force sends the ship through time rather than ripping it in half. You'd have to chew through thousands or millions of warp capable ships to discover it through trial and error. But once it actually happened, Spock was able to reverse engineer the equation that makes it work.
I personally headcanon something similar- it was a unique creation of Enterprise's modified warp field, the vector and time of their approach, and approximately a fuckton of the dice behind the universe rolling up natural 20s to allow that to happen without killing or severely endangering everyone on board instead of throwing you to the past. That there was even a chance of reverse-engineering and using that knowledge was furthermore only possible through Spock's incredible scientific aptitude and quick thinking, and not the sort of thing most non-science-aligned factions could've pulled off at all.
 
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