Did the Sydraxians not know the Gabriel Expanse would be a free for all?
As much to the point, if they are such loudly singing warriors, who have raided and assaulted us so many times, why did they expect anything less?

That would be the thing people have suggested with a show combat with the Dawiar. (Don't feel the need to explain Clan customs to me. I have my Warriors of Kerensky book in view from the home desk among other BattleTech gear.)
Does it count as a Trial of Possession if the only thing being fought over is the right to continue using the ships you're fighting with?

And it's kind of a rosy view of the GBZ in general. One of my concerns about Ainsworth is that while we've created a geographically limited conflict, if we end up having to blow up a significant number of nominally civilian hostile ships or intern their colonists or destroy their starbases...

We've confined the fighting to what is ultimately the grand tactical, but if we do well enough then it becomes a strategic threat to be responded to with strategic means. This is especially true of the Sydraxi, who are facing being cut off from their strategic patrons and having the enemy at that back door while the friends at their front door turn increasingly hostile. By nuking Deva IX Ainsworth has already upgraded the problem for them to an operational level, past the original grand tactical level we originally delineated.
As with concerns that if the Hierarchy exhausts itself fighting us, its economy will collapse and throw the Sydraxian people into chaos... The only way we could have avoided this problem would have been to lose.

The entire point of our even taking an interest in the Gabriel Expanse was to avoid a situation where the Cardassians and Sydraxians build a 'wall' of colonies and bases that blocks our expansion and ensures secure supply lines between them. Either such a wall exists, or it doesn't. If it does exist, we've lost and are at a major strategic disadvantage for decades. If it doesn't, the Sydraxians are in an exposed and endangered position for decades.

If the Sydraxians lose in the Gabriel Expanse, and are unable to construct that 'wall' that ties them firmly to the rest of the Ashalla Pact*, and then decide they want a general war against us because they like the odds better that way, we can't stop them. But in that case the Cardassians are stuck recognizing that their client state has violated the Treaty of Celos, which will hopefully have ramifications favorable to us.

So unless you're suggesting that we deliberately throw the fight in the Gabriel Expanse and accept a strategic situation unfavorable to ourselves (i.e. one that makes it easy for the Cardassians to base large fleets within striking distance of Sol)...

We can't afford to work ourselves up too much worrying over how the Sydraxians will react to defeat. By signing the Treaty of Celos we've put ourselves in a position where the Federation can't persuade the Sydraxians of anything. It therefore has no real influence over their reactions, except by giving them everything they desire and hoping that bribes them into going away (not likely).
_____________________

*Name derived from the capital city of Bajor; corresponds to 'Warsaw Pact'
 
Does it really matter? If we look like we pose a serious threat to the continued existence of the current Sydraxi government, that's not going to deter them very much.

Good point. The current regime seems to have staked a lot of its public support on Cardassian clienthood being a good investment.

Why they thought this was a good idea I don't even...
 
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Does it count as a Trial of Possession if the only thing being fought over is the right to continue using the ships you're fighting with?

This is so not weird among the Clans I'm surprised you think that. In a direct parallel, the Snow Ravens have participated in a Trial about pretty much every new or refit class of DropShip and WarShip in Clan service as either attacker or defender, and in every case the ship that was the object of the Trial was also a participant. It's equally common for warriors to be the object of a Trial and for them to fight in their own defense.

As with concerns that if the Hierarchy exhausts itself fighting us, its economy will collapse and throw the Sydraxian people into chaos... The only way we could have avoided this problem would have been to lose.

But it's not. The objective here is to convince the Sydraxi and/or the Cardassians that we are maneuvering to win the GBZ Cage Match, not maneuvering to cripple them for years to come. We don't have to lose to accomplish that. We simply have to measure our aggressiveness out a bit more carefully; interning prospectors or construction craft rather than destroying them, being careful with attacks on fixed installations rather than fleet assets, considering where we build our own installations carefully and so on. Avoiding escalation does not require losing.
 
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It therefore has no real influence over their reactions, except by giving them everything they desire and hoping that bribes them into going away (not likely).

Everybody loves appeasement. Just ask Chamberlain how that worked out.

Good point. The current regime seems to have staked a lot of its public support on Cardassian clienthood being a good investment.

Why they thought this was a good idea I don't even...

On their side of things it isn't the worst idea. Keep in mind, at the time they first fell into the Cardassian sphere of influence, we hadn't really expanded beyond Amarkia. We pretty much exploded to our current borders under Kahurangi within only a few years.

Now, go back and look at Thuir's captains log from the first contact, and then the incident with the Sydraxians. From their point of view, we are very much the bad guy, and I have no doubt that Cardassia gave them very favorable terms for client hood.
 
Good point. The current regime seems to have staked a lot of its public support on Cardassian clienthood being a good investment.

Why they thought this was a good idea I don't even...

The Cardassians are really good at selling themselves. They have a whole pitch about begin Hard Men in a Hard Universe who tell it like it is and won't flinch before anything. Sign up with them and preserve your autonomy. (Yes, I know. But that's what they say.)
 
Oops double post, but:

But it's not. The objective here is to convince the Sydraxi and/or the Cardassians that we are maneuvering to win the GBZ Cage Match, not maneuvering to cripple them for years to come. We don't have to lose to accomplish that. We simply have to measure our aggressiveness out a bit more carefully; interning prospectors or construction craft rather than destroying them, being careful with attacks on fixed installations rather than fleet assets, considering where we build our own installations carefully and so on. Avoiding escalation does not require losing.

The thing is, we don't need to try to convince them that we want the GBZ or that we're trying to win it. We need to win it. The fact is, if we win the GBZ, we are crippling them. No two ways about it.

GBZ is high in resources that Cardassians don't have natively. Without it, they're crippled.

As @Simon_Jester said, if we win it we essentially separate the client and patron. If this happens, they're crippled. Look at the Dawiar.

With the forces committed to the GBZ by both sides, if we win, they're crippled. They won't be able to effectively project force for a decade.

The thing that is keeping this all bottled here, is that all of this would happen anyway; however, bottling it all in the GBZ is keeping the civilian worlds and infrastructure safe, on both sides. Without this cabinet war, we would see worlds burning. Yes there will be strife and social upheaval in the losers, but this is infinitely better, and everyone knows that.
 
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The Cardassians are really good at selling themselves. They have a whole pitch about begin Hard Men in a Hard Universe who tell it like it is and won't flinch before anything. Sign up with them and preserve your autonomy. (Yes, I know. But that's what they say.)

Plus if the Cardassians were smart, they've genuinely been helping the Sydraxians for years now. Intel, technology, and keeping large portions of our fleet away from Sydraxian space until recently. The Cardassians generally leverage their clients for resources, but I suspect they've avoided doing so with the Sydraxians given the resources were going towards fighting us anyways, and more directly.
 
Who can easier afford to lose the GBZ - the Federation, the Cardassians or the Sydraxians? Any of the participants is aware of the answer, and will act accordingly.
 
In honour of its impending launch, I thought I'd at least add the registry to the Renaissance:
Also, something else I'm working on you can't see in that shot:
Temporary lighting on this one. Also a rough render: rendering glass tends to be add a lot of noise.
 
The thing is, we don't need to try to convince them that we want the GBZ or that we're trying to win it. We need to win it. The fact is, if we win the GBZ, we are crippling them.

This seems to be a seriously difficult problem for you so I'll try to explain it again.

We can win the GBZ and simultaneously make it look like we're setting up to invade the Sydraxi and deliberately gimping Cardassian expansion of any kind for the next decade or more.

Or we can win the GBZ without doing those things.

Both are possible. But one of them means we get the general war that the GBZ was supposed to prevent.
 
[X][PRIORITY] Indoria should join GBZ
[X][ANDOR] Swap 55br for 30sr
[X][AUX] Start 1 Colony Ship, 1 Prospector, 2 Cargo Ships
[X][INDORIA] Accept - Indorians will be able to produce Renaissances, but 25% chance of a 2Qtr delay
[X][BETA1] Go for it
[X][BETA2] Agree - 20% discount on Starbase purchase for Betazed
[X][CATS] Decline
 
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[X][PRIORITY] Indoria should join GBZ
[x][ANDOR] Swap 55br for 30sr
[X][AUX] Start 1 Colony Ship, 1 Prospector, 2 Cargo Ships
[x][INDORIA] Accept - Indorians will be able to produce Renaissances, but 25% chance of a 2Qtr delay
[x][BETA1] Go for it
[x][BETA2] Agree - 20% discount on Starbase purchase for Betazed
[x][CATS] Decline

I agree with bringing the Indorians into the GBZ based on a few things. They are the next closest member to the GBZ without already being involved in it. With the Q'loath and Seyek hitting 300 relations soon the CBZ will be effectively cut in half and making it likely the Seyek member fleet can support Indoria while we rustle up a fleet if needed.

For the Aux ship builds I'd rather do the prototype ourselves and then we can ask other worlds to make them. Plus more colony ships and prospectors will be very useful in the GBZ so it's not like we're making less valuable ships.

Betazed wants a Rennie and a starbase? Makes sense to me.

For the 2nd Caitian Excelsior I think we should stay out of it. If their government wants to build one then they can build one but the wording of the option makes it sound to me like the Caitian grand navy wants us to convince the councillors from the Caitian colony worlds to argue with their central government and have the Excelsior built instead of doing their economic recovery. I think that's a step too far. The MWCO is supposed to be about offering our help and opinions, not about supporting a military over it's government.

Also, anyone else wondering about the Dawiar? We haven't heard anything about them in a while. They might be having economic problems like the Caitians or unrest in their clans due to wavering Cardassian support. Does anyone have any ideas for how we could find out more about what their doing beyond spending one of our intel reports?
 
Did the Sydraxians not know the Gabriel Expanse would be a free for all?

I am assuming they based their projections on how things would go on the following points:
Our benefactors, the Cardassians, will be there with us.
They are even bringing in another race to help out, so we will out number those cowards 3 to 1. Hope those new guys don't steal too many of our colonies though.
The Federation are cowards, they have always run away. (Yes, we know this isn't true, but do the Sydraxian public know?)
 
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I think it's more likely to assume that they thought that we would bring in large forces but expand defensively, rather than aggressively. I would rather give them credit than parody them as stupid. In other words, they expected business as usual but in the GBZ rather than SBZ, but we gave them the result of that Council Resolution to wage full war that we never got to execute.

And to be fair, expanding defensively is what would have happened under certain other commanders.
 
Also, anyone else wondering about the Dawiar? We haven't heard anything about them in a while. They might be having economic problems like the Caitians or unrest in their clans due to wavering Cardassian support. Does anyone have any ideas for how we could find out more about what their doing beyond spending one of our intel reports?
After a short look at the map - :( - however, the Klingons are relatively near, and they are not part of the Federation nor are they affiliated.
 
I think it's more likely to assume that they thought that we would bring in large forces but expand defensively, rather than aggressively. I would rather give them credit than parody them as stupid. In other words, they expected business as usual but in the GBZ rather than SBZ, but we gave them the result of that Council Resolution to wage full war that we never got to execute.

And to be fair, expanding defensively is what would have happened under certain other commanders.

The Sydraxians don't strike me as stupid so much as...confused, I think. Like they can't commit to a consistent mo.

It's possible that the hierarchy isn't all that unified.
 
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I am assuming they based their projections on how things would go on the following points:

Our benefactors, the Cardassians, will be there with us.

They are even bringing in another race to help out, so we will out number those cowards 3 to 1.

Hope those new guys don't steal too many of our colonies though.

The Federation are cowards, they have always run away. (Yes, we know this isn't true, but do the Sydraxian public know?)

I think it's more likely to assume that they thought that we would bring in large forces but expand defensively, rather than aggressively. I would rather give them credit than parody them as stupid. In other words, they expected business as usual but in the GBZ rather than SBZ, but we gave them the result of that Council Resolution to wage full war that we never got to execute.

And to be fair, expanding defensively is what would have happened under certain other commanders.

To quote Adama from BSG, 1.10, Hand of God:

"If you keep running from the school yard bully, he keeps on chasing you but the moment you turn around and stop you punch him really hard in a sensitive spot. He'll think twice about coming back."
 
[X][PRIORITY] Change nothing [Weighted 1.5x]
[X][ANDOR] Swap 55br for 30sr
[X][AUX] Start 1 Colony Ship, 1 Prospector, 2 Cargo Ships
[X][INDORIA] Accept - Indorians will be able to produce Renaissances, but 25% chance of a 2Qtr delay
[X][BETA1] Go for it
[X][BETA2] Agree - 20% discount on Starbase purchase for Betazed
[X][CATS] Decline
 
After a short look at the map - :( - however, the Klingons are relatively near, and they are not part of the Federation nor are they affiliated.

Dude look at the map again. There's no way for the Klingons to go to the Dawiar without passing through our territory. Besides, they are busy prepping for their war with the Romulans. The Dawiar are still Cardassian Clients, and will likely remain so until after the war.
 
But we ourselves radically changed MO on them, no?

With them it's more like...

They make these daring raids against us and try to ambush an excelsior, but then turn tail and run without a fight the instant it looks like there's even the slightest possibility of defeat.

They expand into Gabriel, knowing that it will be a free for all, and then react as if in shock when their fleet gets attacked.

It really seems like we're dealing with an organization whose parts are failing to communicate with each other.
 
Dude look at the map again. There's no way for the Klingons to go to the Dawiar without passing through our territory. Besides, they are busy prepping for their war with the Romulans. The Dawiar are still Cardassian Clients, and will likely remain so until after the war.
Space is 3-dimensional, and we don't have a treaty with the Cardassians where Klingon diplomats are forbidden to traverse our territory. Whether the Federation would want Klingons to talk to the Dawiar, or the Klingons would want to send one cruiser for such a mission, that are valid questions. The inability of said cruiser to reach its destination, not.
 
[X][ANDOR] Swap 55br for 30sr
[X][AUX] Start 1 Colony Ship, 1 Prospector, 2 Cargo Ships
[X][INDORIA] Accept - Indorians will be able to produce Renaissances, but 25% chance of a 2Qtr delay
[X][BETA1] Go for it
[X][BETA2] Agree - 20% discount on Starbase purchase for Betazed
[X][CATS] Decline
 
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