Did the Sydraxians not know the Gabriel Expanse would be a free for all?
As much to the point, if they are such loudly singing warriors, who have raided and assaulted us so many times, why did they
expect anything less?
That would be the thing people have suggested with a show combat with the Dawiar. (Don't feel the need to explain Clan customs to me. I have my Warriors of Kerensky book in view from the home desk among other BattleTech gear.)
Does it count as a Trial of Possession if the only thing being fought over is the right to continue using the ships you're fighting
with?
And it's kind of a rosy view of the GBZ in general. One of my concerns about Ainsworth is that while we've created a geographically limited conflict, if we end up having to blow up a significant number of nominally civilian hostile ships or intern their colonists or destroy their starbases...
We've confined the fighting to what is ultimately the grand tactical, but if we do well enough then it becomes a strategic threat to be responded to with strategic means. This is especially true of the Sydraxi, who are facing being cut off from their strategic patrons and having the enemy at that back door while the friends at their front door turn increasingly hostile. By nuking Deva IX Ainsworth has already upgraded the problem for them to an operational level, past the original grand tactical level we originally delineated.
As with concerns that if the Hierarchy exhausts itself fighting us, its economy will collapse and throw the Sydraxian people into chaos... The only way we could have avoided this problem would have been to
lose.
The entire point of our even taking an interest in the Gabriel Expanse was to avoid a situation where the Cardassians and Sydraxians build a 'wall' of colonies and bases that blocks our expansion and ensures secure supply lines between them. Either such a wall exists, or it doesn't. If it does exist, we've lost and are at a major strategic disadvantage for decades. If it doesn't, the Sydraxians are in an exposed and endangered position for decades.
If the Sydraxians lose in the Gabriel Expanse, and are unable to construct that 'wall' that ties them firmly to the rest of the Ashalla Pact*, and then decide they want a general war against us because they like the odds better that way, we can't stop them. But in that case the Cardassians are stuck recognizing that their client state has violated the Treaty of Celos, which will hopefully have ramifications favorable to us.
So unless you're suggesting that we deliberately throw the fight in the Gabriel Expanse and accept a strategic situation unfavorable to ourselves (i.e. one that makes it easy for the Cardassians to base large fleets within striking distance of Sol)...
We can't afford to work ourselves up too much worrying over how the Sydraxians will react to defeat. By signing the Treaty of Celos we've put ourselves in a position where the Federation can't
persuade the Sydraxians of anything. It therefore has no real influence over their reactions, except by giving them everything they desire and hoping that bribes them into going away (not likely).
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*Name derived from the capital city of Bajor; corresponds to 'Warsaw Pact'