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It's more about military production?Is the Federation willing to interdict and destroy civilian trading, though?
I mean, you almost can't win a war without attacking the enemies production at some point?
It's more about military production?Is the Federation willing to interdict and destroy civilian trading, though?
Yes, unless we have reason to think that the Sydraxian fleet is out of the picture- either because it's off doing something else, or because we've neutralized the Sydraxians diplomatically.It's difficult to use the Apiata as advanced units because even if their fleet is impressive (80C at minimum, probably more like 100C now), the Sydraxians are literally one map square away. Sydraxian pressure acts as a check to Apiata offensive ability.
Is there any specific place you would like to recommend that we abandon because it's over-exposed?Ghosts and Whispers happened at the start of 2310. It's now the end of 2312, almost 3 full years later.The Cardassian fleet had 148 combat as of the end of Ghosts and Whispers.
We know that they produce 2 Jaldun a year. A high estimate would be that they produce 2 Takaaki a year too. Each ship is C4, so add 16 combat each year. The Cardassian fleet therefore has about 196 combat today (high estimate).
Let's presume that war begins today. We call the Indorian fleet (unknown strength, ~20C) to Lapycorias and we have 40C sitting behind a 10C Starbase. The Cardassians activate a warplan and sortie 50C from Bajor/CBZ towards Indoria and 50C from forward deployment towards Apinae. These are conservative estimates. Let's also assume that the remaining 100C is spread out evenly among the six known Cardassian worlds (16C each).
The question is, presuming both sides avoid combat until clear superiority is obtained, who wins a deployment race? I will define clear superiority as 150% more combat than the other side, including static defenses for the lesser side. I will also continue the deployment as if nothing happens so we can see who arrives late.
Week 0:
Apiata (80C) vs Cardassia (50C)
(150% threshold met)
CBZ+Indoria+SB9 (50C) vs Cardassia (50C)
Week 1:
15C arrives from Explorer Corps
70C arrives from Sydraxians
EC+Apiata+Apinae SB (105C) vs Cardassia+Sydraxia (120C)
16C arrives from Balogot
CBZ+Indoria+SB9 (50C) vs Cardassia (66C)
Week 2:
10C arrives from Explorer Corps*
9C arrives from Amarkia*
EC+Starfleet+Apiata+Apinae SB (124C) vs Cardassia+Sydraxia (120C)
16C arrives from Galundun
23C arrives from CAN*
CBZ+CAN+Indoria+SB9 (73C)* vs Cardassia (82C)
Week 3:
15C arrives from SBZ
EC+Starfleet+Apiata (129C) vs Cardassia+Sydraxia (120C)
16C arrives from Trangot
31C arrives from SFTF2*
CBZ+CAN+Indoria+SFTF2+SB9 (104C)* vs Cardassia (98C)
Week 4:
32C arrives from Karadoc and Vedarot
14C arrives from Sol
10C arrives from Unassigned Pool
7C arrives from Tellar
EC+Starfleet+Apiata (160C) vs Cardassia+Sydraxia (152C)
16C arrives from Cardassia Prime
11C arrives from Ferasa
Starfleet+CAN+SFTF2+Indoria (121C) vs Cardassia (114C)
*The question is, can a small reinforcement fleet safely breach a blockade of the Starbase when the total fleet is still outnumbered. The answer is likely no without great risk. But if the CAN does not arrive on Week 2, for example, the Cardassians meet the 150% threshold.
Anyway, the point is; we defend both locations by massing fleets, then our fleets get "pinned" at a known location for at least some deployment weeks, needing the safety of static defenses to escape engagement. It's unlikely we would "escape" a siege of SB9, for example, if we holed up and waited for reinforcements. And the Cardassian reinforcements happen faster than ours up until Week 3.
THIS IS NOT A DEPLOYMENT PLAN. It is a mathematical exercise of how fast ships can be expected to move. A real deployment plan would likely amass a fleet as far back as Amarkia, wouldn't strip sectors dry, would account for the Dawiar and Lecarre, and so on. I hope to illustrate, however, that it is likely our units "in the field" so to speak WILL get pinned at fortifications by Cardassian advanced forces. Only in Week 0 will we have the flexibility to decide to abandon any positions.
Is the Federation willing to interdict and destroy civilian trading, though?
Lapycorias is dangerously exposed, especially if all we have there in the way of a mobile force is the Combat 17 CBZ squadron itself. I could support the idea of abandoning the starbase as non-defensible in case of war... But I would really, really hate to do that, and I wouldn't recommend it in a plan of mine unless I saw a fairly wide base of support for the idea.
...,
And hm. Another big point is that if people concentrate as firmly as you suggest, they're open to flanking attacks. What do you picture the Cardassians leaving in reserve to counter a Bajoran uprising or a move by the Seyek? Will the Sydraxians be prepared if a bunch of vengeful Earthling or Tellarite ships come after them?
I imagine the Cardassians will be tied down by the Seyek as well. In fact, they're the ones most in danger due to proximity.
Would become a thing out of necessity to whatever alliance is in the area.
My gut says Sydraxia first. I'm tired of being threatened on both flanks at once.@Simon_Jester what do you say in case of a war, after we stabilize the defensive situation. Sydraxian First strategy or Bajor First strategy?
Fair, but I was asking the question for a reason- eyeballing it, how much strength do you think they'll have to leave, just to counter the Seyek? Likewise with Sydraxia and the Earthling/Tellarite fleets?Look, the only reason I'm suggesting full concentration is because it represents the mathematical worst case. I don't expect it to happen, I do expect the flanks to be covered and the Seyek and such to be in play. However, I do expect the Cardassians to deploy more units proportionally than Starfleet does.
Unless I'm committing epic Pythagorean Theorem fail, we can START getting reinforcements there within two weeks if we really book it, push the engines a bit, and are willing to pull ships from Amarki and Ferasa sectors. To copy-paste a chunk from my current plan draft:I'm of two minds on Lapycorias. Either it needs to be immediately abandoned, or it needs to hold in a siege until the Amarki or our fleet out of Ferasa comes and rescues it. SFTF2 and the remainder of the CAN are both in the ~2-3 week range and the Amarki Navy is a unit that would work well together with itself, for obvious reasons. This is not viable without a SOE though. Without a SOE, we're looking at ~4 weeks to reinforcements, aren't we?
True, but since we have no concrete evidence of Cardassian fleet movements massing on the border, we have reason to think they're not fully ready for an offensive yet... IF we hurry.If the Cardassians are slow-rolling a deployment because they were just as surprised as we were, then we can afford to hold Lapycorias. If they had already called up their offensive units after they gave the original guarantee after the bombing, then SB9 and Indoria are going to get blitzed and there's nothing we can do about it.
Something along those lines, yes- exactly which fleets we use, though, Depends. For example, we may want to keep the Vulcans in place because we don't want to totally, utterly, 100% denude our rear areas of ships.If it looks like the Sydraxians are joining the war, we can drop the Rigelian and Vulcan member fleets on them, along with whatever Starfleet ships from our tailward garrisons we can spare. That'll force them to hang back and defend their own space, freeing up the Apiata to use their entire fleet against the cardassians.
Huh. Duly noted, although it seems utterly nuts that they would be this nonreactive to the presence of Cardassia on their doorstep for all this time, compared to the Apiata who have been building literal swarms of ships this entire time.Approximate Indorian fleet strength. Lowballs to 21C, high to 30C.
Something along those lines, yes- exactly which fleets we use, though, Depends. For example, we may want to keep the Vulcans in place because we don't want to totally, utterly, 100% denude our rear areas of ships.
The Romulans are on great terms with us by Romulan standards. But if we completely bare our jugular to them, they might just decide that "show those Surakists who's boss once and for all" is a more appealing way to ensure the Federation doesn't permanently outgrow them than, say, "fight a screaming horde of Klingons."
Comparable arguments are in play regarding the Klingons and fighting a quiet but passionate horde of Romulans, of course.
Huh. Duly noted, although it seems utterly nuts that they would be this nonreactive to the presence of Cardassia on their doorstep for all this time, compared to the Apiata who have been building literal swarms of ships this entire time.
Also, that fleet composition seems off with their stated shipyard facilities. Among other things, their smallest listed berth is a 1500kt facility. I suspect Indorion cruisers are Not Small. I'm honestly surprised they don't have any smaller berths to build the escorts at, either.
Ah, well, right now its...Approximate Indorian fleet strength. Lowballs to 21C, high to 30C.
One explorer and four big-damn-cruiser or pocket-explorer sized motherships, supporting a mix of about twenty smaller ships that include some science vessels and a lot of terrifyingly combat-optimized "Stinger" escorts.
@SynchronizedWritersBlock ... And for that matter a lot of people...Ah, well, right now its...
4 Cruisers: 1 Ship of the Line, 3 Frigate
10 Escorts: 2 Large Escorts, 5 Combat Escort, 3 Patrol Escort
Total C of 46
Ah, well, right now its...
4 Cruisers: 1 Ship of the Line, 3 Frigate
10 Escorts: 2 Large Escorts, 5 Combat Escort, 3 Patrol Escort
Total C of 46