It's difficult to use the Apiata as advanced units because even if their fleet is impressive (80C at minimum, probably more like 100C now), the Sydraxians are literally one map square away. Sydraxian pressure acts as a check to Apiata offensive ability.
Yes, unless we have reason to think that the Sydraxian fleet is out of the picture- either because it's off doing something else, or because we've neutralized the Sydraxians diplomatically.

That said, it's definitely a contingency we'll want to plan for. And we should almost certainly try to get an Apiata offensive rolling with heavy Starfleet support at the earliest opportunity, even if that requires us to scrape the Sydraxians off our flank first.

Ghosts and Whispers happened at the start of 2310. It's now the end of 2312, almost 3 full years later.The Cardassian fleet had 148 combat as of the end of Ghosts and Whispers.

We know that they produce 2 Jaldun a year. A high estimate would be that they produce 2 Takaaki a year too. Each ship is C4, so add 16 combat each year. The Cardassian fleet therefore has about 196 combat today (high estimate).

Let's presume that war begins today. We call the Indorian fleet (unknown strength, ~20C) to Lapycorias and we have 40C sitting behind a 10C Starbase. The Cardassians activate a warplan and sortie 50C from Bajor/CBZ towards Indoria and 50C from forward deployment towards Apinae. These are conservative estimates. Let's also assume that the remaining 100C is spread out evenly among the six known Cardassian worlds (16C each).

The question is, presuming both sides avoid combat until clear superiority is obtained, who wins a deployment race? I will define clear superiority as 150% more combat than the other side, including static defenses for the lesser side. I will also continue the deployment as if nothing happens so we can see who arrives late.

Week 0:
Apiata (80C) vs Cardassia (50C)
(150% threshold met)
CBZ+Indoria+SB9 (50C) vs Cardassia (50C)

Week 1:
15C arrives from Explorer Corps
70C arrives from Sydraxians
EC+Apiata+Apinae SB (105C) vs Cardassia+Sydraxia (120C)

16C arrives from Balogot
CBZ+Indoria+SB9 (50C) vs Cardassia (66C)

Week 2:
10C arrives from Explorer Corps*
9C arrives from Amarkia*
EC+Starfleet+Apiata+Apinae SB (124C) vs Cardassia+Sydraxia (120C)

16C arrives from Galundun
23C arrives from CAN*
CBZ+CAN+Indoria+SB9 (73C)* vs Cardassia (82C)

Week 3:
15C arrives from SBZ
EC+Starfleet+Apiata (129C) vs Cardassia+Sydraxia (120C)

16C arrives from Trangot
31C arrives from SFTF2*
CBZ+CAN+Indoria+SFTF2+SB9 (104C)* vs Cardassia (98C)

Week 4:

32C arrives from Karadoc and Vedarot
14C arrives from Sol
10C arrives from Unassigned Pool
7C arrives from Tellar
EC+Starfleet+Apiata (160C) vs Cardassia+Sydraxia (152C)

16C arrives from Cardassia Prime
11C arrives from Ferasa
Starfleet+CAN+SFTF2+Indoria (121C) vs Cardassia (114C)


*The question is, can a small reinforcement fleet safely breach a blockade of the Starbase when the total fleet is still outnumbered. The answer is likely no without great risk. But if the CAN does not arrive on Week 2, for example, the Cardassians meet the 150% threshold.

Anyway, the point is; we defend both locations by massing fleets, then our fleets get "pinned" at a known location for at least some deployment weeks, needing the safety of static defenses to escape engagement. It's unlikely we would "escape" a siege of SB9, for example, if we holed up and waited for reinforcements. And the Cardassian reinforcements happen faster than ours up until Week 3.

THIS IS NOT A DEPLOYMENT PLAN. It is a mathematical exercise of how fast ships can be expected to move. A real deployment plan would likely amass a fleet as far back as Amarkia, wouldn't strip sectors dry, would account for the Dawiar and Lecarre, and so on. I hope to illustrate, however, that it is likely our units "in the field" so to speak WILL get pinned at fortifications by Cardassian advanced forces. Only in Week 0 will we have the flexibility to decide to abandon any positions.
Is there any specific place you would like to recommend that we abandon because it's over-exposed?

Apinae is fairly well protected, among other things because the Cardassians will have to get past frontier outposts and probably deal with harassment attacks from the Apiata fleet just to reach it. They can't just wrap a globe of ships around the system and call it a day.

Lapycorias is dangerously exposed, especially if all we have there in the way of a mobile force is the Combat 17 CBZ squadron itself. I could support the idea of abandoning the starbase as non-defensible in case of war... But I would really, really hate to do that, and I wouldn't recommend it in a plan of mine unless I saw a fairly wide base of support for the idea.

[EDIT: On a side note, abandoning the Lapycorias starbase in place is exactly the kind of thing that admirals get called before Councils and yelled at over, and sometimes they even get fired. Even if there's a reason to do it, politicians never seem to understand or sympathize]

...,

And hm. Another big point is that if people concentrate as firmly as you suggest, they're open to flanking attacks. What do you picture the Cardassians leaving in reserve to counter a Bajoran uprising or a move by the Seyek? Will the Sydraxians be prepared if a bunch of vengeful Earthling or Tellarite ships come after them?
 
@Simon_Jester what do you say in case of a war, after we stabilize the defensive situation. Sydraxian First strategy or Bajor First strategy?

Lapycorias is dangerously exposed, especially if all we have there in the way of a mobile force is the Combat 17 CBZ squadron itself. I could support the idea of abandoning the starbase as non-defensible in case of war... But I would really, really hate to do that, and I wouldn't recommend it in a plan of mine unless I saw a fairly wide base of support for the idea.

...,

And hm. Another big point is that if people concentrate as firmly as you suggest, they're open to flanking attacks. What do you picture the Cardassians leaving in reserve to counter a Bajoran uprising or a move by the Seyek? Will the Sydraxians be prepared if a bunch of vengeful Earthling or Tellarite ships come after them?

Look, the only reason I'm suggesting full concentration is because it represents the mathematical worst case. I don't expect it to happen, I do expect the flanks to be covered and the Seyek and such to be in play. However, I do expect the Cardassians to deploy more units proportionally than Starfleet does.

I'm of two minds on Lapycorias. Either it needs to be immediately abandoned, or it needs to hold in a siege until the Amarki or our fleet out of Ferasa comes and rescues it. SFTF2 and the remainder of the CAN are both in the ~2-3 week range and the Amarki Navy is a unit that would work well together with itself, for obvious reasons. This is not viable without a SOE though. Without a SOE, we're looking at ~4 weeks to reinforcements, aren't we?

If the Cardassians are slow-rolling a deployment because they were just as surprised as we were, then we can afford to hold Lapycorias. If they had already called up their offensive units after they gave the original guarantee after the bombing, then SB9 and Indoria are going to get blitzed and there's nothing we can do about it.
 
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[X][SOE] Do not request a State of Emergency
[X][SFTF1] Support Operations on Celos
[X][SFTF2] Hunt and Destroy Syndicate Space forces
[X][UETF] Escort shipping
[X][ATF] Support Operations on Freedom
[X][CBZ] Focus on defence of Starbase 9 at Lapycorias
[X][SBZ] Focus on defence of Starbase 8 at Vega
[X][DIPLO] Remain focused on Sydraxians

Rationale for differences from the popular vote:

Although I'm sure we'd win a defensive war, such a war would be really costly now. I'd prefer to avoid escalation as much as possible, and I'll take the gamble that the Cardassians will back off if Celos is retaken even if they publicly guarantee Celos independence. Though I'm not too confident on Cardassian psychology, I don't get the impression they're absolute sticklers to positions they've taken a stake in.

I flipped around UE task force to escort shipping, while the Andorian task force supports Freedom operations, because the Andorians have more Constellations armored transports that directly help while the Starfleet ASTF1 transitions over to Celos operations. Meanwhile, I expect shipping to be more safe because the Amarki fleet is going to be canvasing the area - while not directly escorting shipping, the numbers of 2 explorers + 3 cruisers + 10 escorts (with 1 cruiser and 5 escorts directly escorting shipping) should be sufficient.

Finally, Sydraxians have historically raided around Vega and Yrillian space, so I'd prefer to keep ships around the area. The nearby Apiata forces and remaining Amarki forces should be sufficient to repel any Sydraxian raids. If the Sydraxians for whatever reason invade Amarki space in force, the Vega task force is nearby enough reinforce in time. The main downside is that if war actually erupts with Cardassians, the Vega task force is more than week further away from the front lines, but I'll take that gamble.
 
@Simon_Jester what do you say in case of a war, after we stabilize the defensive situation. Sydraxian First strategy or Bajor First strategy?
My gut says Sydraxia first. I'm tired of being threatened on both flanks at once.

My own priorities are:

1) Reinforce Indorion space heavily enough that the Cardassians can't just straight-up conquer Indorions in the opening three months of the war.
2) Knock the Sydraxians out of the war.
3) Start alternating pressure from joint Apiata-Starfleet forces on the coreward side of Cardassian space, and Starfleet plus various member and affiliate races on the rimward side, forcing the Cardassians back, with the initial target of our offensive probably being Bajor to rimward and generalized commerce harassment and raiding to coreward.

Look, the only reason I'm suggesting full concentration is because it represents the mathematical worst case. I don't expect it to happen, I do expect the flanks to be covered and the Seyek and such to be in play. However, I do expect the Cardassians to deploy more units proportionally than Starfleet does.
Fair, but I was asking the question for a reason- eyeballing it, how much strength do you think they'll have to leave, just to counter the Seyek? Likewise with Sydraxia and the Earthling/Tellarite fleets?

I'm of two minds on Lapycorias. Either it needs to be immediately abandoned, or it needs to hold in a siege until the Amarki or our fleet out of Ferasa comes and rescues it. SFTF2 and the remainder of the CAN are both in the ~2-3 week range and the Amarki Navy is a unit that would work well together with itself, for obvious reasons. This is not viable without a SOE though. Without a SOE, we're looking at ~4 weeks to reinforcements, aren't we?
Unless I'm committing epic Pythagorean Theorem fail, we can START getting reinforcements there within two weeks if we really book it, push the engines a bit, and are willing to pull ships from Amarki and Ferasa sectors. To copy-paste a chunk from my current plan draft:

Brevet Commodore Erzath zh'Darlyth, commanding.
--USS Kumari, Excelsior, NCC-2005
--USS Salnas, Excelsior, NCC-2009 (2 weeks)
--USS Avandar, Excelsior, NCC-2010 (2 weeks)

--USS Hood, Constitution-B, NCC-1703 (4 weeks)
--USS Challorn, Constellation, NCC-1809
--USS Vigour, Constellation, NCC-1804

--USS Winterwind, Centaur-A, NCC-2104
--USS Blizzard, Centaur-A, NCC-2108 (2 weeks)
--USS Bull, Centaur-A, NCC-2107 (3 weeks)
--USS Bon Vivant, Miranda, NCC-1621 (4 weeks)
--USS Dryad, Miranda, NCC-1631 (4 weeks)

Week 1 : Combat 17
Week 2 : Combat 32
Week 3 : Combat 35
Week 4 : Combat 46
Those are end of week figures. So basically, I figure we can have two more Excelsiors on the scene by about the end of Week 2, and another significant slug of reinforcements around Week 4 or so. There are actually other entire fleets (or at least squadrons) we could be pushing towards Lapycorias that arrive at or shortly after that time, too.

[EDIT: Those are ALSO figures specifically for the High Alert condition. Give me member world ships to play with and I'd probably throw the remaining half of the Amarki fleet in the mix]

On a side note, I suspect you're significantly underestimating the strength of the Indorion fleet by pegging them at "about twenty." Even if their ships are a generation behind the curve, they have a lot of industrial capability, they're terrifyingly close to Cardassia, and they've been building hard for at least the past ten years. Even if all they could build was the equivalent of Soyuzes, they'd almost certainly have considerably more than ten of them.

If the Cardassians are slow-rolling a deployment because they were just as surprised as we were, then we can afford to hold Lapycorias. If they had already called up their offensive units after they gave the original guarantee after the bombing, then SB9 and Indoria are going to get blitzed and there's nothing we can do about it.
True, but since we have no concrete evidence of Cardassian fleet movements massing on the border, we have reason to think they're not fully ready for an offensive yet... IF we hurry.

Sure, we might have entirely missed the Cardassians massing their fleet, but at some point we have to trust our own sensors.

My draft plan actually includes orders to Fifth Fleet that IF they are attacked in overwhelming force they should be prepared to fall back.
 
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If it looks like the Sydraxians are joining the war, we can drop the Rigelian and Tellarite member fleets on them, along with whatever Starfleet ships from our tailward garrisons we can spare. That'll force them to hang back and defend their own space, freeing up the Apiata to use their entire fleet against the cardassians.

Of course, to be able to do that, we'll need to start bringing those fleets toward the border as soon as SOE is declared.
 
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If it looks like the Sydraxians are joining the war, we can drop the Rigelian and Vulcan member fleets on them, along with whatever Starfleet ships from our tailward garrisons we can spare. That'll force them to hang back and defend their own space, freeing up the Apiata to use their entire fleet against the cardassians.
Something along those lines, yes- exactly which fleets we use, though, Depends. For example, we may want to keep the Vulcans in place because we don't want to totally, utterly, 100% denude our rear areas of ships.

The Romulans are on great terms with us by Romulan standards. But if we completely bare our jugular to them, they might just decide that "show those Surakists who's boss once and for all" is a more appealing way to ensure the Federation doesn't permanently outgrow them than, say, "fight a screaming horde of Klingons."

Comparable arguments are in play regarding the Klingons and fighting a quiet but passionate horde of Romulans, of course.

Approximate Indorian fleet strength. Lowballs to 21C, high to 30C.
Huh. Duly noted, although it seems utterly nuts that they would be this nonreactive to the presence of Cardassia on their doorstep for all this time, compared to the Apiata who have been building literal swarms of ships this entire time.

Also, that fleet composition seems off with their stated shipyard facilities. Among other things, their smallest listed berth is a 1500kt facility. I suspect Indorion cruisers are Not Small. I'm honestly surprised they don't have any smaller berths to build the escorts at, either.

[EDIT: This appears to be a not-uncommon issue among member worlds, looking at things in more depth; apparently their main government shipyard berths tend to be sized for building really big freighters, rather than being sized commensurate with the warships they normally build]
 
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Something along those lines, yes- exactly which fleets we use, though, Depends. For example, we may want to keep the Vulcans in place because we don't want to totally, utterly, 100% denude our rear areas of ships.

The Romulans are on great terms with us by Romulan standards. But if we completely bare our jugular to them, they might just decide that "show those Surakists who's boss once and for all" is a more appealing way to ensure the Federation doesn't permanently outgrow them than, say, "fight a screaming horde of Klingons."

Comparable arguments are in play regarding the Klingons and fighting a quiet but passionate horde of Romulans, of course.

Huh. Duly noted, although it seems utterly nuts that they would be this nonreactive to the presence of Cardassia on their doorstep for all this time, compared to the Apiata who have been building literal swarms of ships this entire time.

Also, that fleet composition seems off with their stated shipyard facilities. Among other things, their smallest listed berth is a 1500kt facility. I suspect Indorion cruisers are Not Small. I'm honestly surprised they don't have any smaller berths to build the escorts at, either.

I meant the Tellarite fleet, not Vulcan. They're closer to the Sydraxians and further from the tailward borderzones.
 
How big is the Apiata fleet again?
One explorer and four big-damn-cruiser or pocket-explorer sized motherships, supporting a mix of about twenty smaller ships that include some science vessels and a lot of terrifyingly combat-optimized "Stinger" escorts.

Ah, well, right now its...

4 Cruisers: 1 Ship of the Line, 3 Frigate
10 Escorts: 2 Large Escorts, 5 Combat Escort, 3 Patrol Escort

Total C of 46
@SynchronizedWritersBlock ... And for that matter a lot of people...

:p

Told you they could provide meaningful reinforcements to Fifth Fleet at Lapycorias if we asked them to.
 
I love how the Indorions have just quietly, in their gray, forgettable manner, been building building building a moderately kickass battlefleet. It's not on par with the Apiata and I'm sure it doesn't have much in the way of flair, but it's still a classy achievement for them.
 
Maybe, but it sounds like it would be risky. The numbers add up, but it'd be three disparate fleets against a single unified command structure. If their fleet coordination broke down, or if the Cardassians got lucky somewhere, we'd be in trouble.

Plus, for all we know the Cardassians may have actual allies we haven't even heard about- we just discovered one new affiliate of theirs, albeit one that probably isn't going to be doing a lot of fighting against us.
 
I remember Ironwolf saying that the Seyek had been planning to build a sort of "Non-aligned" block, hopefully containing themselves the Bajorans, and the Qolothi, and the Dawair, between us and the Cardassians but that the Occupation of Bajor had pushed them over into full exasperation with the Cardassians and more fully into our camp.
 
Sooooo about that Diplomatic action, everyone?
:p

Well, on the one hand, it makes asking the Indorion for help a lot more appealing.

On the other hand, the arguments for sticking with Sydraxian diplomacy ARE still in force. It would be great if we could secure their neutrality or even just negotiate a quick end to the war after fighting a short sharp battle or two against them, rather than having to send in a big fleet and physically occupy their space.

We COULD just hope that the Indorions will listen to our polite requests anyway, and/or have enough good sense to know that it's a bad idea for them to abandon a Starfleet fortress and task force to be defeated in detail in the opening week of a war that's going to be fought on their doorstep. So I dunno. On the one hand I feel vindicated, on the other hand, I respect that people like Briefvoice have their own reasons for proposing what they do.
 
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