Okay, I think this is leaning too far into the immediate assumption. It could, absolutely, be enemy action. But it could also, for instance, be a newly contracted meguca flexing her power without knowing it's not wise to. I'll put the "truly weird things" category aside for now, since they don't quite jive with the storm starting as a natural thing.
I don't want us or our friends to cause an avoidable fight by assuming the worst when it wasn't. I think "Something is making it rain, magically. Currently figuring out why. Keep an eye out for trouble or newly contracted magical girls, and contact us if anything happens," would be a better core statement.
Ninety percent of what you are suggesting --
Something is making it rain, magically. Currently figuring out why. Keep an eye out for trouble or newly contracted magical girls, and contact us if anything happens -- is
exactly what I am
doing:
"Contact everyone if new information" is exactly "contact us if you learn anything"
"Unnatural storm above Mitakihara" is equivalent to "keep an eye out for anything unusual" and "something is making it rain magically".
"Contact Homura in emergency" and/or "contact us in case of emergency" are exactly "contact us if anything happens".
The absolute,
only thing you are actually criticizing is the stance that this is "enemy action".
Well, alright. I think you're kind of right that that should be softened. But I'm basically disinterested in softening it more than "Yeah, if new evidence suggests the city-wide magical effect (!costly?!) that is putting a giant mass of water and electric charge over our heads isn't hostile shows up, we should
not treat whoever is doing it as hostile, but unless that happens, we're treating this as hostile."
The first step to approaching a group of meguca in a non-hostile manner is
not to artificially emplace a thunderstorm over the city they live in. We're not going to go, "Oh, whoever is doing this should be fought lethally." We're not going to go, "Oh, whoever is doing this is our enemy even if they turn out to be a new contractee who is crying in a corner." We are Sabrina Vee; we talk to the people who we fight before we draw conclusions about their motives. We aren't some goddamn police brutality expy.
But, we're
also not going to go, "Y'know, this here thunderstorm doesn't seem hostile at all!", and we're
especially not going to do that when we know full dang well that there are people out there that want us dead who would absolutely love to emplace a thunderstorm over Mitakihara and plausibly have the ability to do so.
That is exactly the kind of behavior that makes Mami ask us to be more careful, and rightfully so.
As for Akiko... If this is Akiko, she's in the process of witching herself. There's more water up there than she threw around in the entire Sendai fight by like, what? An order, two orders of magnitude? I'm actually disinclined to even
tangentially suggest to Akiko's group that we thought this might be her, on grounds of it being undiplomatic, because this seems to me like it's functionally beyond her powerset. She'd need a clear seed and we'd've heard about that.
Also, bluntly, if it's Akiko she can't throw around the electric charge up there, which makes this far less of a threat.
My primary suspects are Iowa, the Soujus, and whatever friend/s Rionna had in Tokyo, on the premise that A) this fits Iowa's MO of isolating people -- rain tends to discourage meetups -- B) the timing lines up relatively well with the Soujus and Tokyo, and C) all three of those groups could plausibly have access to resources to accomplish this, assuming the Soujus are sufficiently noncanon.
So, does this address your issues? If you were aiming for more of a "Our first thought shouldn't be to 'crush the storm'", then, I mean, okay, I'll hear you out if you choose to make that argument, but please do consider that that directive comes after having both Mami and Mika look at it.
[X] Kyouko, Yuma, Oriko, Kirika, Homura by telepathy:
storm is unnatural; assume storm is enemy action
until/unless evidence suggests otherwise; contact Homura *first* in emergency, contact everyone if new information. That's all you've got so far.
[X] Mami, Homura, Sayaka, Mika by telepathy: You just warned the others; Nakano Mika has suggested that the storm outside is not operating naturally. If Mami can't get a read on it, you're thinking either Homura or Sayaka should pick up Mika for another opinion, then you'll crush it with a ribbon/grief combo?
-[X] Sayaka, Mami, Homura by telepathy: at least one of us with Madoka at all times.
[X] Fukushima, Asunaro by telepathy: unnatural storm over Mitakihara; situation developing; no further details at present.
[X] Shiogama, Animators: unnatural storm above Mitakihara, stay safe, contact us in case of emergency. Twentysomething magical girls are looking at this starting two minutes ago, whatever is going on will be taken care of.