I think that we can't avoid touching on the conflict between Madoka's Request and Madoka's Wish. The only safe way to respond to Homura's question is to Praise Madokami. And we can't Praise Madokami without Homura being reminded that she thinks her task was to keep Madoka from Wishing.
We can't dance around the issue. Homura is too smart. Worse, she's been thinking about this, and for quite a while, judging by how it weighing on her. She asked us why her methods haven't worked and we're about to tell her that she wasn't having success because she was keeping Madoka from Wishing. Because she was keeping the promise she made to Madoka.
So what do we do?
I propose that we stand as far back as we can, take a big run-up, and hit the problem as squarely as possible with the biggest hammer we have: Madoka's Wish.
Have faith in Madoka.
That's the only thing that I can see that can get Homura through this. Homura has to believe that she can change. She has to believe that her sins can be forgiven. She has to believe in a better future for herself, otherwise she's just going to despair no matter what we do. Homura has to be happy, actually happy and satisfied, for this quest to have a Good End. But every time an update rolls around someone has some new and horrifying realization about how much Homura loathes herself, how her entire character arc started when Madoka treated her like a person for the first time in her life. There's only one thing that can do the job we need and that's Madoka.
In short, we need to convince Homura that Madoka's Wish gives her another chance. Absolves her of her sins and lets her make a new beginning. It's the only thing we can do. And with the way Homura's looking, we need to do it now. We need to introduce her to that hope as solidly as possible, without giving her time to develop a resistance to it and without leaving anything to, to give it as good a chance as we can to get a foothold where it can grow.
[x] Conversation goal: Attempt to help Homura believe in herself and her future by telling her to have faith in Madokami who has faith in her and Wished to fix everything.
-[x] The conflict between the promise she made to Madoka and the fact that things are going well because of Madoka's Wish.
-[x] Homura not liking herself.
So how to do this?
We use all of the evidence we have to build up Madoka's Wish. Homura needs the strongest anchor we can give her.
[x] Lead in with Asunaro being too blatantly better to be a convenient butterfly.
[x] Lay out all your evidence. Kirika's antimagic for Oriko, Nagisa, Anri, timings, Sayaka's behavior.
We make our first point.
[x] Madoka's Wish is still helping.
We bring it back around to Homura.
[x] You know how much that must hurt Homura. But that's not the end of the story, because Madoka wished that everything could be fixed. And that includes Homura's story.
-[x] You know that Homura can only be happy if Madoka is safe and Homura is the one protecting her, and you know that Madoka can only be happy if Homura is happy.
We drive it in with more evidence.
[x] You do mean that you know. Your metaknowledge focuses on some people. The two people it focuses on the most are Madoka and Homura. Madoka cares about Homura, and you're almost certain she Wished thinking of Homura.
We make it explicit. Go ahead and throw in some religious imagery, since Homura grew up on that shit.
[x] Madoka wished that everything could be fixed. And that means Homura can be saved.
And then we show Homura how to do it.
[x] Silently pray to Madokami. She Wished to save Homura, but there's no way unless Homura can accept Her help, so there has to be something like this. Please let this work.
[x] You don't believe that Madoka was tricked into that Wish. You think that she knew enough about Homura to know what she was doing.
-[x] Homura's last loop diverges from your metaknowledge, but you know what kinds of Wishes Madoka makes, and she wouldn't have made that one without a good reason.
-[x] And she decided to Wish that Homura could protect her and find happiness, among other things, and entrusted you and Homura with the future. You will see her will done.
300-some words, but I cleared it with Firn. Discard wordcount, acquire clarity and tone, and this vote needs those.