I'm saying the naval option has a real probability of turning into a ground war, which will commit the Empire's remaining military leaving it vulnerable, and bleed it militarily and economically more than running a trade workaround with the Dwarves.
You are welcome to your opinion. I'd note there is nothing really to support it, but it is an opinion.
For gods sake, Marienburg isn't a bandit and the fact it is a massive centre of trade tends to be very beneficial to the Empire as whole. Just not as beneficial as it would be were it part of the empire and its taxes and tolls would go into the coffers of the Emperor and his cronies instead of the merchant princes... Also you think that the dwarves won't have tolls and taxes on trade moving through their city, river and canal? Again the motivation for building those canals wasn't some altruistic concern but a wish of already rich and powerful dwarven holds to be even richer and more powerful and some humans with the same motivation.
Marianburg is absolutely a bandit. They are going to starve the empire to maintain their profit margin, and the blockade cutting the empire of from the rest of the world will have casualties if not ameliorated. It's arguable that closing the river is an act of war on its own, BECAUSE IMPERIAL CITIZENS WILL DIE. This is demonstrated by the way the empire is willing to back down rather than suffer it.
So no, I don't think that there's much legitimacy in them trying to say that all they are doing is closing their own territory. That's like the guy upstream diverting the entire river before you get any water- technically within his rights, but still a massively hostile act.
Lean years are not a problem.
Assertion without evidence.
You can't blockade your own port. Not letting other ships enter your territory from downriver is still not a blockade, your own waters belong to you. The fact that it means our riverine navy can't make use of the port is tough shit for us, that's still not a blockade.
If they don't forceably prevent the empire's trade from leaving the empire, then we have no problem with them. If they do, then it's a blockade of the empire regardless of whose waters it takes place in. And I'm ok regarding the forceable lifting of that as an equivalent act to putting it in place.
Belegar has so much money even we hadn't been able to figure out how to use it. It's literally just sitting locked in a vault doing nothing. This would not only make it do something, it'd be a massive and extremely effective investment with long-term benefits all the way up to national security and international geopolitical stability. I'd say that those are the kinds of benefits you can't buy for any amount of money, but in this case we've been presented with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to do precisely that.
Note that none of the resources required are money. Bodies, time, and lots of renegotiation are the resources. It says "significantly weakens" on the tin, trying to pretend we can buy our way out seems disingenuous.
I don't disagree, but maybe don't pick out a random voter and start an argument with them about why their vote is wrong if they haven't said anything else.
The thread moves too fast for that to be practical, unless you are de facto saying that only the people who have caught up on the thread may contribute. If it's said on the thread it is fair game for responses- and there are a lot of cases where strands of arguement are picked out and challenged in posts that aren't the 'main' discussion.
People's arguments that the blockade will somehow be magically bloodless is pissing me off too much to be worth keeping up with.
And the arguement that it is a vote directly for war is kinda doing the same on the other side. Marianburg started this with the embargo- they are chosing to starve Imperial citizens. Framing a response to this as bloodthirsty seems to put the responsibility on the wrong party.
They are chosing to escalate- and ignoring them leaves the door open to further escalation. Do you think they'd leave the canals un-sabatoged if we went with dwarf trade assistance? The game, from their perspective, is stopping the canals. Embargo not working? Well, they *could* just fold, or...
Point is, I think demonstrating a willingness to put the people making these calls in personal danger is going to do a lot more to change the calculus than trying to soak the hit.