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Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

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People keep debating about what are the chances that breaking the blockade will lead to another War of Vengeance vs the weakening of of the Empire and dwarfs for years risking catastrophe if a major threat appears during that period, but I think all of this debate about which choice is the least likely to create major problems is misguided. Ultimately, we are currently representing what the dwarfs will want to do about the issue, and so we should be making our decision based on what we think the dwarfs would want do do about the situation. Do they fear another War of Vengeance enough to be willing to significantly weaken themselves to avoid the chance, however small? Do they see a Marienburg blockade as an affront deserving of naval action even if it risks a war? What do the dwarfs want?
 
Glau said:
There is a vote for war, and it is not winning. The vote that is winning is gunboat diplomacy, bit diplomacy none the less. So it isn't five lean years vs war, it is five lean years vs a small chance of war. And those numbers are MUCH less easy to evaluate. So I see this as a bad faith argument.
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Gunboat diplomacy is effectively War. The thing is going to play out something like:
Marienburg: "The hell are you doing here? This is Marienburg territorial waters!"
Empire: "We won't be bullied by you. Remove this blockade you have on the river."
Marienburg: "This is sovereign waters, guaranteed by the Ulthuani. Leave immediately or you will be treated as an invading force!"
Empire: "We will not!"
Marienburg: "We have stated our piece and we consider this illegal breach of our borders as an act of war!"
*Cue the Elgi quarters raining down fire and brimstone on the Empire/Dawi navy*
 
[X] No, but they could help break the blockade

I dearly hope the Chamberlain will have a say in how this "operation" is going to go- he's good at peacekeeping, and we need it.
 
Mopman43 said:
They've known from the start that Barak Varr is the main actor behind the canal. Are you telling me that they haven't considered the possibility?
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Yes, this is insight brought directly from Mathilde.

I think they expect the Empire to either capitulate or try for a Round 2, in which they can try and summon the elves for help as the mean Empire tries to conquer the noble free city.

I do not think they consider the possibility of dreadnoughts to be high enough as to be a concern.
 
TotallyNotEvil said:
There's another angle to consider here, which some posters raised up but is not being picked: this is still in the realm of diplomacy.
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Very much this. This isn't military advice we're giving to the Reiksmarshal, it's diplomatic ammunition we're giving to the Chamberlain of the Seal.

Regardless of which of our suggestions wins, it's going to be the Empire's fallback position/ threat, not something that they jump to, since both of them have unpleasant consequences if actually implemented, instead of just being used as a threat to get Marienburg to back off.
 
DragonParadox said:
Ah yes Ulthuan is so much bette than us that their civilans and merchants pose and existential threat to the combined Barak Var and Imperial. I think we should just surrender to the Elgi guys. We only have a state at their sufferance anyway.
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That's what happened the last time The Empire attempted to take back Marienburg.
 
Even if the Empire-dwarf combined fleet does sucsessfuly break the blockade, and destroy enough infrastructure to force trade through for the next 5 years until the canals are done without getting the elves to step in it will still weaken them both. Ships are expensive, ironclads more so. Even assuming everything goes perfectly the navies are going to be damaged with ships both lost and in need of massive repairs. Factoring in the money and time needed to repair and rebuild the fleets you are probably still seeing both Barak Varr and The Empire weakened by such a battle.
 
TotallyNotEvil said:
Having a dwarf show up at the table where the Marienburg ambassador is expecting the Empire's capitulation and tell them to stop playing silly buggers or they will get a 20th century fleet shoved up their Renaissance asses might well be enough to make them decide this is not worth it.
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I kind of want to read an omake of that scene now.

Erandil said:
For gods sake, Marienburg isn't a bandit and the fact it is a massive centre of trade tends to be very beneficial to the Empire as whole. Just not as beneficial as it would be were it part of the empire and its taxes and tolls would go into the coffers of the Emperor and his cronies instead of the merchant princes... Also you think that the dwarves won't have tolls and taxes on trade moving through their city, river and canal? Again the motivation for building those canals wasn't some altruistic concern but a wish of already rich and powerful dwarven holds to be even richer and more powerful and some humans with the same motivation.
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I think we've found the Marienburg agitator, lads. "No really you guys, those massive tariffs and ability to threaten the Empire's wellbeing by threatening blockades are good for the Empire and its citizens! It's the Emperor and his cronies who are the real baddies!"

We're Grey Order here, you can't trick us!
 
DragonParadox said:
Ah yes Ulthuan is so much bette than us that their civilans and merchants pose and existential threat to the combined Barak Var and Imperial navy. I think we should just surrender to the Elgi guys. We only have a state at their sufferance anyway.
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History pretty clearly tells us Ulthuan stations Mages there, as shown by what happened the last time the Empire tried to grab clay.
 
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lol I imagine the foreign diplomat that sees us going "Oh yea the Dawi will totally help us crush marienburgs independence" is going to go "Oh god, a grey magister with a penchant for war, fml"

Lean years are not a problem.

[X] They can make up for the loss in trade

Kicking off a fucking war between the high elves and the Dawi would be monumentally stupid.

DragonParadox said:
Which did not include dwarfs, or wizards come to that since it was when the colleges were outlawed. Also this is not an attack on Marienburg it's breaking their blockade.
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They can't blockade their own port, that wording is Mathilde being biased as fuck. Marienburg is independant. Marienburg has the right to not service the empire if it doesn't want to. It's short sighted and fucking stupid but it has that right. What you're talking about here is attacking Marienburgs sovereignty granted to them by Magnus the Pious.
 
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No7sHere said:
While the Marienburgers are absolutely bastards who deserve to be humbled, it is simply not worth the risk. While it may not be likely any chance of starting a war between the elves and the dwarves is to high and frankly unnecessary. When the cannal is completed Marienburg will be severly weakened meaning that at confrontation at that point would be much easier and the only reason we need to involve the dwarves at all is because currently most of the provences of the empire are busy or recovering. If we ask the dwarves for help now, it might not be fair to them and we might be weakened temporarily but in the long term we will gain significant benefits, will strengthen our hand for the future and will not potentially start a war that would weaken us far more than any temporary trade disruption.
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It is absolutely worth the risk, because the alternative is either killing the canals entirely, or weakening both the empire and the dwarves for five years, five years where orcs and beastmen and skaven and chaos can run fucking rampant.
 
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Sir Bidoof said:
People keep debating about what are the chances that breaking the blockade will lead to another War of Vengeance vs the weakening of of the Empire and dwarfs for years risking catastrophe if a major threat appears during that period, but I think all of this debate about which choice is the least likely to create major problems is misguided. Ultimately, we are currently representing what the dwarfs will want to do about the issue, and so we should be making our decision based on what we think the dwarfs would want do do about the situation. Do they fear another War of Vengeance enough to be willing to significantly weaken themselves to avoid the chance, however small? Do they see a Marienburg blockade as an affront deserving of naval action even if it risks a war? What do the dwarfs want?
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Exactly right, the dwarfs will not want to back down and if you look at what the Empire diplomat asked,
BoneyM said:
So I put it to you - can the Dwarves be convinced to stop building the canal between the Aver and the Black Waters?"
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the only honest answer to this question has to be a no at least. I don't think lying to the empire will be good for the empire or Mathilde as she is supposed to be following the articles of magic
 
DragonParadox said:
Also this is not an attack on Marienburg it's breaking their blockade.
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Breaking their blockade by attacking Marienburg. Certainly by attacking their ships, their port facilities, and any defenses they've got running across the Reik.

If it comes down to Barak Varr actually breaking the blockade, then a shooting war already exists.
 
DragonParadox said:
Which did not include dwarfs, or wizards come to that since it was when the colleges were outlawed. Also this is not an attack on Marienburg it's breaking their blockade.
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That doesn't relate to you saying that all HEs are civilians.
DragonParadox said:
Ah yes Ulthuan is so much bette than us that their civilans and merchants pose and existential threat to the combined Barak Var and Imperial navy.
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History pretty clearly shows they aren't, and that they actually have significant magical muscle in elftown. Civilians and Merchants mightn't pose a threat, but Mages do.

And people have been talking about attacking the city also to burn it's docks, so nope the city would also be attacked, which could to the elves living there to (reasonably) take measures to stop it being attacked given they live there.
 
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Asheram said:
That's what happened the last time The Empire attempted to take back Marienburg.
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The last time the Empire tried to take back Marienburg they were fielding a ground force with no allies and no magical support against one of the most magical races in the world. This time it would be the Barak Varr navy going through inferior manling ships like, well, a steel axe through wooden planks.

SuperSonicSound said:
They can't blockade their own port, that wording is Mathilde being biased as fuck. Marienburg is independant. Marienburg has the right to not service the empire if it doesn't want to. It's short sighted and fucking stupid but it has that right.
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No, it absolutely is blockading literally every port further downriver if it doesn't allow ships to get there. That's what a blockade is.
 
Asheram said:
It's invading the borders of a sovereign state with a friggin' fleet. It's an attack.
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Mopman43 said:
Breaking their blockade by attacking Marienburg. Certainly by attacking their ships, their port facilities, and any defenses they've got running across the Reik.

If it comes down to Barak Varr actually breaking the blockade, then a shooting war already exists.
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Well then I guess the GM was wrong to also include an actual war option since they are both supposedly the same.
 
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