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Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

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I got my teeth drilled and I can't feel the left side of my face so I'm glad to see a DL update in consolation. I feel like a child recieving a lolipop for my bravery all over again.
 
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Boney said:
Also is it me or is it really weird that Boris named his firstborn child Katarin less than thirty years after the end of the 150-year reign of Tzarina Kattarin the Bloody?
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I've wondered the same thing after someone in thre thread has pointed to me that they are in fact two different Katerinas. Maybe Boris is just that badass.
 
Tzarina Katarin actually existed back in 4th Edition Empire Army Book (yes, Empire, the Empire book included Kislev). The first time I remember hearing about Kattarin the Bloody is 2E WFRP Realm of the Ice Queen/Night's Dark Masters, which was around 6th Edition.

It doesn't provide Watsonian reasoning, but it helps enlighten things from a Doylist perspective.
 
K von Carstein said:
Except we don't know that the Father will be useful with the Halethan. It's probable, yes. But there's still a possibility the Father would be useless in that case. With the Gambler, we know for sure it will be useful.

And the foundation is the very basic for the project, if there's a moment to use the Gambler it's now. We can also recruit other traditions later.
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The traditions we have when we lay the foundations will impact the shape those foundations will take. Also, it's not quite true that the Gambler will be useful for sure. Dice rolls don't have infinite resolution - sometimes a roll of X and a roll of X+20 will lead to Boney writing the exact same words, and while 20 is pretty large it's not so large that it will definitely matter. I wouldn't know how to put a probability on the chance the Gambler bonus ends up making a difference, but it's definitely not 100%.
 
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mathymancer said:
The traditions we have when we lay the foundations will impact the shape those foundations will take. Also, it's not quite true that the Gambler will be useful for sure. Dice rolls don't have infinite resolution - sometimes a roll of X and a roll of X+20 will lead to Boney writing the exact same words, and while 20 is pretty large it's not so large that it will definitely matter. I wouldn't know how to put a probability on the chance the Gambler bonus ends up making a difference, but it's definitely not 100%.
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It's not 100%, but it's certainly not 0. If we're wrong and the Halethan don't worship a Daughter, it will be 0.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't recruit the Halethan this turn. I'm saying that we shouldn't use the Father on it.
 
K von Carstein said:
It's not 100%, but it's certainly not 0. If we're wrong and the Halethan don't worship a Daughter, it will be 0.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't recruit the Halethan this turn. I'm saying that we shouldn't use the Father on it.
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Saying 'if an event won't happen the probability of it happening is 0' is meaningless. Whether the Gambler helps depends on the dice and on the exact way Boney implements the foundations action, whether the Father works depends on what is the answer Boney chose for the mystery of the daughters. But we don't know for sure what's the answer, and the language often used to discuss the possibility of an event happening when you don't have all the relevant knowledge is the language of probability.

How likely do you think Halétha not being a daughter is? Just a few updates ago we visited a Hedgefolk community that lives by the Forest and Shadows and saw them using sings resembling Ranaldite signs and their magic felt oddly familiar and comfortable to Mathilde, after I've spent a lot of time constantly saying that the Hedgefolk Goddess of protection from the Forest and Shadows is a strong candidate for Ranald's daughter. Do you honestly think that's not good enough for us to finally give it a try? Because if so, I don't see how we will ever use the Father.
 
It should be noted that the fail state of using the Father is not just Halétha isn't the daughter, but also 'our sources were wrong and the Hedgefolk know nothing/very little of use for the project'.
 
DragonParadox said:
It should be noted that the fail state of using the Father is not just Halétha isn't the daughter, but also 'our sources were wrong and the Hedgefolk know nothing/very little of use for the project'.
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That's a fail state of approaching the Hedgefolk not of using the Father, unless you are suggesting the gambler can retroactively provide them with waystone knowledge.
 
When it comes time to start the project the laying the foundation action 100% needs to have the gambler on it, if we want to recruit the hedgewise and ice witches next turn as well I propose we delay starting, otherwise we have to accept that the father face of the coin can't be used.

Laying the foundation is something that requires our absolute A game, a strong foundation is paramount.
 
DragonParadox said:
I mean the action proposed is using the Father on the Hedgefolk, it the Hedgefolk do worship the Daughter but know nothing than the use of the coin for this purpose was wasted.
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The discussion immediately prior to your post was about using the father versus using the gambler to recruit to hedgefolk. Ultimately that's a fail state the exists for any group we recruit. Heck even the jades who were closest we had to a sure bet might have fallen into it.
 
Jreengus said:
The discussion immediately prior to your post was about using the father versus using the gambler to recruit to hedgefolk. Ultimately that's a fail state the exists for any group we recruit. Heck even the jades who were closest we had to a sure bet might have fallen into it.
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The discussion was about using the Father to recruit the Hedgefolk versus using the Gambler on laying the foundations. In that context, if the Hedgefolk don't know anything Waystone related then using the Father on them was wasted for the purpose of helping the foundations action, though I'm sure it will have other benefits. I still think we should use the Father for the Hedgefolk and I don't think putting the Gambler on the foundations actions is as critical as some feel, but @DragonParadox is correct that a recruitment action (with or without the Father) always runs the possibility of being a dud, while the Gambler feels like more of a sure thing. It's not, because as I said before dice don't have infinite resolution and it's entirely possible that the Gambler doesn't make any noticeable difference, but I get where he's coming from.
 
The gambler is certainly not a sure thing but +20 on a d100 is a fifth of the size of the die. I mean look it this way, assume there is a single DC to make, below that there is the bad result and above that there is the good result, for the sake of argument let's call it DC 50. The odds of the Gambler which is a +20 making a difference in that roll is 20%. now if you add more break points, say for instance if there is one break point at 50 and another at 70, that makes it even more likely the bonus will matter as it can now take you not only from bad to good but from good to great. I am sure someone better at math than me could come up with a probability curve or something, but even as bad a I am with numbers it seems clear to me that +20 means a lot in this system.
 
I'm of the opinion we want as wide a human knowledge base as possible. So in we go.

The elves and dwarves aren't feeling remotely delayed, the main rush is OOC growing impatience.
 
I feel like an outlier. I like the idea of using the Father because it's a gamble which I find entertaining. There is no guarantee we get a return on our investment when using the Father, but there is a guarantee on return for Gambler, which ironically makes the coin side called "The Gambler" the safer choice.

I'm fine not taking the most optimal choice to ensure we get the best possible start, but then again I'm not really sure how much recruiting we'd even be doing next turn. I'd be fine recruiting the Hedgewise/Ice Witches/Ambers whatever later depending on our needs. I'd still vote for Father even if it's not guaranteed to help us. Cus it's a Gamble.
 
Codex said:
I feel like an outlier. I like the idea of using the Father because it's a gamble which I find entertaining. There is no guarantee we get a return on our investment when using the Father, but there is a guarantee on return for Gambler, which ironically makes the coin side called "The Gambler" the safer choice.

I'm fine not taking the most optimal choice to ensure we get the best possible start, but then again I'm not really sure how much recruiting we'd even be doing next turn. I'd be fine recruiting the Hedgewise/Ice Witches/Ambers whatever later depending on our needs. I'd still vote for Father even if it's not guaranteed to help us. Cus it's a Gamble.
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I share a similar opinion really, it is an interest plotline that we need to take risks with.
 
Yes, the Gambler is ironically less of a Gamble. But I do very much want to get the Hedgewise before we lay the foundations. Partly because I want to use the Father already, I won't deny that, but a large part of it is that I think Hedgewise knowledge is going to be the Grey Order's magical contribution to the project, and I don't want us to start this project with the Grey Order's only contribution being diplomacy, and because I want us to have at least one non-Collegiate human tradition when we build our framework.
 
veekie said:
Hey, I feel it too, but I think adding groups that we know live around and are involved in Waystones should be a no brainer.
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Yeah, but we can always add them later. There will always be a group with some potentially useful knowledge to recruit, and if we wait to catch them all (and to do all the work they want of us in exchange) we will take many more real-life months to do so.

The original Waystones were made by just the dwarfs and elves. We have those, as well as the Light and Jade Orders abs forest spirits. Next turn, we can recruit one or two more groups and do the foundation.
 
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