I favor the ConnieBee plan because as it is right now, we're getting 2 ConnieBee's in 2312Q4, a ConnieBee and the Rennie Prototype in 2314Q1, and then a three year drought until we get 3 Rennies in 2317Q1, with two more Rennies each in 2317Q4 and 2318Q1.

Starting a ConnieBee in 2312 means that we'd get an extra cruiser in 2315 to help bridge the gap till the Rennies start regularly rolling out of the slips.
 
I'm not following your build schedule here, or why 2318-19 has lower numbers than 2317. Whether the numbers represent yearly commissioned vs cumulative total commissioned, something here is inconsistent.
Subtracting everything that would be the same on both sides, obviously.
All this means is that building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A results in practically NO delay in building a Renaissance. There would be less than a 10% chance that we'd have to delay a Renaissance by a quarter.
This analysis presupposes we would only be building one ship. If a Renaissance is the marginal ship deducting half of the crew cost of a Renaissance will typically mean something like a 50% chance of being able to crew one ship less in any given year, and if we adjust building to keep the chance of a ship not being crewed constant like I expect we would it means the expected number of delayed builds in any given year without previous delays is around 0.5. In a year following a delay there would be a corresponding 50% chance of being able to compensate (which means 50% chance of being just short the next year once again), so in either case we would be expected to be around 0.5 Renaissances behind, until something other than crew becomes the most limiting. Total crew income is completely irrelevant to the probability of a marginal case, as long as crew income is our limiting factor.

Maybe this helps: Suppose there was only a single type of crew, builds were instant, the Renaissance had a crew cost of 1 and we had crew income following a normal distribution centered around exactly 1,000,000 per year. Due to symmetry there would be a 50% chance of the non-integer part of actual crew income being < 0.5, which means deducting 0.5 crew that year means one less Renaissance that year, e. g. only 999,999 instead of 1,000,000. The actual case is a bit more complicated, but mostly in ways that make it worse (3 different ways to be just short on crew, for example).
...really? You don't cap off a convincing rational argument by being an ass and concluding with an ad hominem.
I very much do not enjoy engaging with low quality arguments, it's almost always a complete waste of time. When there is just one thing (or a small number of issues) that seems to be wrong with an argument usually there either is some thought behind it and inquiring is productive (sometimes giving valuable new insights), or they can be convinced by pointing that out. When an argument seems completely incoherent there almost never is anything to be gained from it, and either pointing out everything wrong with it can take a long time or there isn't even anything with a logical connection to the conclusion argued for that could be addressed. In either case they usually can't be convinced of anything, because if they currently were in the state of mind for that they wouldn't be making an argument like that in the first place.

What is the nicest possible way to tell someone that they are currently not meeting the minimum standard for a debate worth having and that if this was my first interaction with them I wouldn't consider them to be a person worth talking to at all? It's important to me to have some way of warning people who are usually much better than that. I thought saying I was losing respect for them was appropriate because A) that's exactly what it is and B) it implies that I do respect them. If there is something better to say I would very much like to know.
 
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This analysis presupposes we would only be building one ship.
Obviously.

This entire fuss is over what to do with a given entry in a suggested build plan. Do we want an escort in two years, a cruiser in three years, a better cruiser in four years, or a refitted vessel in one year? Everything else is shuffling numbers, and frankly is taking more energy from the participants than is wise.
 
@OneirosTheWriter, please add this to the front page, under completed projects and Sol Sector; it got removed from the active projects, but not the completed and active assets sections. I was adding up defense requirements and active sources, and didn't spot it there.

Thanks!
We made the Sydraxian Border Zone, remember? I'm pretty sure Vega was transferred to the SBZ from Sol Sector.
 
If I might, what we are essentially all arguing over is Net Present Value.

A ship today is worth more than an identical ship in two years time. We can all agree on that, right? But is a ship today worth more than a superior ship in two years time? Ah, that's the question. Sure, if we start a Connie-B next year that is in a sense one less Renaissance we will build in the grand scheme of history. But it's a ship that we will have two years sooner. Does having it two years sooner make up for the reduced stats and the lack of ability to upfit it?

You can't just look at the end result, but what's happening year-by-year. I admit, I'm becoming swayed by the argument that we don't want 2315 and 2316 to be "dead years" for cruiser production. That it would be nice to have at least one cruiser a year coming out those years to replace ships that get blown up, or as reinforcements against sudden need, or whatever. Three years is a long time in this quest. It's a long, long, time and events can change very rapidly. The Romulan/Klingon war is very likely to start before 2317, when we can expect our first wave of Renaissances to come out of dock. We will probably have ships lost due to war, natural disaster, or scientific misadventure before then.

That is the most compelling argument to start more Connie builds.
 
Obviously.

This entire fuss is over what to do with a given entry in a suggested build plan. Do we want an escort in two years, a cruiser in three years, a better cruiser in four years, or a refitted vessel in one year? Everything else is shuffling numbers, and frankly is taking more energy from the participants than is wise.
You are missing the point. @lbmaian's analysis looks only at the delay for one particular Renaissance (and makes some other mistakes that are comparatively irrelevant). It's true that if we only look at Renaissance #3 or whatever the expected delay is only going to be a few months. But the crew used for the Connie-B won't just magically return just because we are got around to crewing the initially delayed Rennie #3. The crew for Rennie #3 comes out of the normal pool, which means less crew for the following Rennies, so Rennie #5 might also get delayed, then Rennie #7 as well, and so on, until either the marginal ship isn't a Rennie, or we are limited by something other than crew. During the period before one of those things happen the expected number of Rennies is going to be around 0.5 lower.

Another way to think at it is to consider the crews on ships part of the pool, and the total pool will add up to the same number whether we are building a Connie-B or not (e. g. 200 enlisted or something like that). If some of that number is taken up by the Connie-B instead of a Centaur-A there is less left over for other ships, and there is about a 50% chance that makes enough of a difference to prevent fitting the crew for one more Renaissance into the pool, up until either the ship that would be bumped out isn't a Rennie or we aren't limited by the total size of the pool.
 
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Just to give a comparison, our current fleetwide defense requirements is 97, and we have 164, broken down below. Some of the excess is noted in the Syndicate Task Force, and we have 3 upcoming requirements (Sydraxian Border Zone, Rigel, and possibly Apinae) requiring something like ten defense each. This means we are comfortably above where we need to be, and could scrape up 30 points if needed. In addition, we have 31 defense in ships coming online next year.

An alternative view is to say that we really should meet our defense ratings, at least Federation-wide, with mobile assets. In that case, we have 109 in ships, vs the 97 required. Without the current task force, that's 98 - barely enough. The 31 defense in new ships will cover the 3 new needs. So, thoughts?


Sectors

Sol Sector - Requires 18 Has 20 (Fleet 15, Stations 5)
Sol D15, Betazed D3, Gaen D0
Fleet: 1 Excelsior [Endurance] (6), 3 Miranda [Lion, Bon Vivant, Fidelity] (6), 1 Constellation [Selaya] (3)
Installations: Starbase 1 (5)
Vulcan Sector - Requires 12 Has 12 (Fleet 7, Stations 5)
Vulcan D12
Fleet: 1 Constellation [Sappho] (3), 2 Mirandas (4) [T'Kumbra, Thunderhead]
Installations: Starbase I (5)
Andor Sector - Requires 9 Has 14 (Fleet 9, Stations 5)
Andor D9
Fleet: 1 Constellation (3) [Docana], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Lightning], 1 Miranda (2) [Eketha], 1 Oberth [Suvek] (1)
Installations: Starbase I (5)
Tellar Sector - Requires 9 Has 20 (Fleet 10, Stations 10)
Tellar Prime D9
Fleet: 1 Constellation (3) [Stalwart], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Gale], 2 Miranda (4) [Calypso, Shield]
Installations: Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5)
Amarkia Sector - Requires 9 Has 22 (Fleet 12, Stations 10)
Amarkia D9, Alukk D0
Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6) [Salnas], 2 Centaur-A (6) [Bull, Blizzard]
Installations: Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5)
Ferasa Sector - Requires 12 Has 16 (Fleet 11, Stations 5)
Ferasa D12, Risa D0
Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6) [Avandar], 1 Constitution-A (5) [Cheron]
Installations: Starbase I (5)
Rigel Sector - Requires 0 Has 5 (Fleet 0, Stations 5)
Rigel D0 (changing to D9 soon)
Fleet: None
Installations: Starbase I (5)
Apinae Sector - Requires 0 Has 5 (Fleet 0, Stations 5)
Apinae D0, Indoria D0
Fleet: None
Installations: Starbase I (5)

Border Zones

Romulan Border Zone - Requires 12 Has 14 (Fleet 9, Stations 5)

Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6) [Excelsior], 1 Miranda (2) [Svai], Oberth [Hawking] (1)
Installations: Starbase I (5)
Klingon Border Zone - Requires 6 Has 9 (Fleet 9, Stations 0)
Caldonia D0
Fleet: 1 Excelsior(6) [Thirishar], 1 Miranda (2) [Intrepid], 1 Oberth (1) [Inspire]
Installations: None
Cardassian Border Zone - Requires 10 Has 15 (Fleet 15, Stations 0)

Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6) [Kumari), 2 Constellations (6) [Challorn, Vigour], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Winterwind]
Installations: None [Starbase I (5) in 2311.Q4]
Sydraxian Border Zone - once created will be D9

Fleet: None
Installations: None

Syndicate StarFleet Task Force - Requires 0 Has 11 (Fleet 11, Stations 0)

Fleet: 1 Constellation (3) [Kearsage], 2 Centaur-A (6) [Yukikaze, Zephyr], 1 Miranda (2) [Dryad]
Installations: None
Misc - Requires 0 Has 1 (Fleet 1, Stations 0)

Fleet: 1 Oberth (1) [T'Mir], on extended assignment
Installations: None
Federation Summary - Requires 97 Has 164 (Fleet 109, Stations 55)
Sol D15, Betazed D3, Gaen D0, Vulcan D12, Andor D9, Tellar Prime D9, Amarkia D9, Alukk D0, Ferasa D12, Risa D0, Rigel D0, Apinae D0, Indoria D0, RBZ D12, KBZ D6, Caldonia D0, CDZ D10
Fleet: 1 Const-A (5), 11-5 Explorer Corps gives 6 Excelsior (36), 7 Constellation (21), 4 Oberth (4), 11 Miranda (22), 7 CentA (21)
Installations: 9 Starbases (45), 2 Extra Outposts (10)
Shipyard Activity

Year 2312, Q1, Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6)
Year 2312, Q2, Fleet: 3 Constitution-B (15), 1 Oberth (1)
Year 2312, Q4, Fleet: 2 Constitution-B (10)
Year 2313, Q1, Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6), 2 Constitution-B (10)
Year 2314, Q1, Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6), 1 Constitution-B (5), 1 Renaissance (Prototype) (5)
Year 2315, Q1, Fleet: 2 Excelsior (12)
 
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Omake - Kahurangi and the Cloak - Briefvoice
Kahurangi and the Cloak

You have been in your office since sunrise, and it's already mid-morning without a break. Ironic that these last months leading up to your retirement are some of the busiest of your tenure as Admiral of Starfleet. Of course, it's partially your own fault. You're trying to play catch-up, looking at reports and proposals that have been lingering in your "for review" box nearly forever. You want to get everything squared away and current for your successor, whomever that might be.

It's not just that, though. Starfleet has grown massively this past decade, but there's still only one Admiral at the lead. Matters that made sense receiving the Admiral's personal attention back when you started now really need to be reviewed one level down… but can't be. That's what you hoped to change by having your Chief of Staff made into a Vice Admiral position. It'll give Shey ch'Tharvasse, or whomever your successor picks to replace him, the authority to ride herd over all those Rear Admirals without having to come back to the Admiral of the Fleet to sign off on orders.

When your assistant comms you that your 1000 appointment is here, you acknowledge on autopilot. You're within paragraphs of finishing your review of a particularly alarming report from Linderly about infiltration attempts by Romulans masquerading as Vulcans, and it's disturbing material. Thus when a chime indicates an individual at your doorway, you look up startled.

Who is this again… oh yes, you recall now. It's a briefing on Romulan versus Klingon cloaking technologies. Apparently there's some concern that they're starting to diverge enough so that sensor calibrations optimized for one are actually hindering the ability to pierce the other, and you need to make a decision on the operational guidelines for sector fleets. It's a Lt Commander… something or other, you can't recall. It's fine, you're well-experienced in bluffing your way through when you can't remember a name.

"Please, take a seat. I don't have a lot of time this morning, so it would be best to jump right into it." Minimize smalltalk; that's the way.

The Lt. Commander nods. He's a young (aren't they all these days) human carrying a PADD. He doesn't look nervous talking to the Admiral of the Fleet; good, shows confidence in his subject matter.

"Admiral, normally I'd start by showing you some designs, but I'm afraid an urgent matter has just surfaced that means we may need to reconsider everything. This news is hot off the comms, and I certainly would have rescheduled to prepare a proper briefing if there were time. I thought it better to proceed and just go ahead and tell you."

His tone is confident, but urgent, and you take a sip of your (now cold) coffee to cover your distress. Urgent news regarding cloaking technology… that can't be good. You gesture for him to continue.

"It's the Rigellians. In light of their coming ratification as full Federation Members, they've finally opened the vaults on something they've been keeping hard under wraps. Admiral, they're sharing the secret of their cloak technology, and it's far more amazing than we could have imagined. We may need to rethink everything."

You nearly spit out your coffee. Rigellians using cloaking devices? No reports had indicated such a thing, not a breath, not a word. But then… the Rigellians have always been a little hard to read, haven't they? Swathing their bodies in cloth, their scaly faces less expressive than most humanoids. They seem straight-forward and calm, but you know their merchant houses are fiercely competitive. They would be just the sort of people who could conceal an advantage like that, using it only when they were sure they wouldn't be caught.

You gesture for the Lt. Commander to give you a few seconds while you consider the implications. The Federation has understood the basics of cloaking technology for a long time now. Reluctance to develop actual cloaking devices has been a mixture of practical, idealogical, and diplomatic. Practical in that the devices are huge energy consumers, putting limits on performance from other systems. Idealogical in that you want to be seen; that stealth as standard operating procedure (as opposed to the occasional necessity) is seen as un-Starfleet. Diplomatic as a deliberate concession to the Klingons and Romulans.

Integrating a new member species who already possess advanced cloaking technologies, though, that could change everything. The Rigellians might well have enough political sway to put the anti-cloak sentiment on the backfoot, at least enough not to be forced to give up their existing cloaks. And if they already have them, well, some loans to Starfleet wouldn't be out of the question…. But that's a Council matter for consideration, and you can't discuss it with this Lt. Commander. All he's going to be able to do is give you the technical information. So… start with that.

"What about the energy requirements? How much power do they spend activating these cloaks?"

The Lt. Commander looks briefly confused. "Power, I don't- Ah, yes I understand now. You're thinking that the Rigellians have those stocky frames and we don't, right? No, but the secret is in their materials technology. Let me tell you what they're getting. They wrap themselves in these cloaks and everything inside is nearly invisible to most sensor technology. It also provides substantial personnel protection, and incredibly it's for nearly zero weight requirement. You take one of us, put them in a Rigellian cloak, and you'll notice nearly no reduction in mobility. Also, and this is the best part, they can provide functional back-ups for equipment we'd normally want to carry."

This is getting very confusing. You're not sure what the hell he's talking about. Is he saying that the cloaks are integrated with Rigellian shield technology in some manner; that their shields are simultaneously cloaks? But that would be an incredible advance, and you don't buy it for a moment. What does he mean by back-up equipment? You can feel the some revelation pounding at the walls of your subconscious, but your own fatigue is preventing it from properly breaking through.

"So you can see that we need to halt everything and consider how to integrate this in future designs," says the Lt. Commander.

That makes you snap to attention. "That is a decision well beyond your authority, Lt. Commander! I will entertain a written proposal for consideration, but we are not equipping Starfleet ships with cloaking devices so casually."

You touch your PADD to bring up your appointment schedule. If you're going to bawl this Lt. Commander out properly, you should probably learn his name. Ah yes, Lt. Commander Ivan Kim at 1000, here to… to present some proposed Starfleet uniform updates for your consideration. And he's telling you about Rigellian… cloaks. Yes. Not that kind of cloak then. You close your eyes briefly in humiliation.

Lt. Commander Kim clears his throat tactfully. "I, uh, I probably should have been clearer about the context of my use of the words 'cloaks', Admiral. I was referring to the apparel that many Rigellians are commonly seen to-"

"Yes, thank you Lt. Commander Kim," you say.

There's an awkward silence. You can only take this as further evidence your decision to retire was the correct one. You're slipping, allowing yourself to get mentally fatigued and making silly mistakes. Well. At the very least, since you don't need to worry about maintaining your aura of infallibility you can do the decent thing and apologize.

"My apologies. I got your appointment confused with one later today, and that confusion led me to misinterpret your words. Please, let's start again from the beginning. You're saying that the Rigellians have personal protection technology that merits a reconsideration of our uniform designs?"

He nods. "Yes, Admiral Kahurangi. I want to stress that on the civilian market the clo- hooded capes that make up the popular image of a Rigellian are indeed just a fashion choice. Your average citizen doesn't need radiation shielding. However for their security officers, diplomats, senior members of starship crews, and other professions potentially exposed to hazards, these garments are incredibly sophisticated pieces of technology far beyond our standard smart-clothing. The core is a woven-in duotronic programable logic control system that serves to operate the functions of the garment. Every fiber can rotate several quasi-exotic surfaces to shield against radiation, baffle potential sensor scans, and stiffen against impact, with the PLC making decisions in real time."

"What was that you said a moment ago about equipment?" you ask.

He takes out what looks like a piece of cloth, then touches it with some sort of device. It instantly reshapes itself into a PADD, screen glowing with a display of the San Francisco weather. He touches it again, and it reshapes itself into what looks very much like a phaser. You look at him and arch an eyebrow.

"It only has enough energy for two shots on the highest setting, but yes that's exactly what it looks like. Pretty much every Rigellian official we've ever met could have produced one of these at will, and we've never had any idea. They can also form communicators, and emergency medical kits, though you'd have to carry the pharmaceutical supply separately."

You remember back when you were on duty among the stars. There are a few times when this would have come in handy, no question. "You think you can integrate this into Starfleet uniforms?" you ask.

At this he hesitates. "As I said, this is hot off the comms. Our entire department will have to take some time to process and integrate what we can. Just as it is, I see two major roadblocks. The first is that these builds are expensive. There is a reason your regular Rigellian citizen doesn't walk around wearing them despite the comfort and utility."

You nod. "And the second?"

"Well… the entire design philosophy is based around having a large surface area of free-flowing cloth that has room to shift itself. Shirts and jackets and pants just don't have the required flexibility. Unless we come up with some sort of work-around, it has to be cloaks, or capes, or maybe some sort of robes."

Robes? No, you think not. But a cloak draped majestically over your shoulders. That could look very, um, very impressive. You imagine facing down the Federation Council (something you'll never have to do again) with a your back literally guarded, cloak swishing as you gesture to make some important point about the needs of Starfleet.

You refocus your attention on Lt. Commander Kim. "Put together your information and a proposed times and materials budget and we'll coordinate with-" You cause to check your PADD; don't want to make an embarrassing mistake twice in one meeting. "-with the Caitian Frontier Police R&D. I believe that they're the ones Rear Admiral ch'Vohlet has working on Personal Equipment research."

He nods.

You continue, "But of course we don't want to wait on the technology before integrating the cloak."

Kim looks confused again. "Admiral?"

"Well if we're eventually going to be relying on free-flowing cloth to support the technology, we should integrate the concept into our uniforms now, don't you think? Make it a natural transition. What I'm saying is, the next set of uniform designs you present I want you to include options for cloaks… or capes… I'm not a clothing designer, so you be creative. You can limit it to the formal dress uniforms right now so we can get the idea out."

"Yes Admiral, I'll tell the team to get to work on it right away."

You make a 'shooing' motion with your hands. "All right, get to it. I'll read your formal write-up when it's no longer 'hot off the comms'."

Lt. Commander Kim salutes and departs. You rub your temples and decide to take a break. You lean back in your chair and let your mind wander. You won't be around to wear the new uniforms of course, but still.

In your day-dreams the cloak swishes behind you stylishly.

@OneirosTheWriter I could ask for an omake reward in the form of a boost to Personal Protection Equipment research…. But really I just want cloaks to be part of the next generation of Starfleet formal uniform.
 
This analysis presupposes we would only be building one ship. If a Renaissance is the marginal ship deducting half of the crew cost of a Renaissance will typically mean something like a 50% chance of being able to crew one ship less in any given year, and if we adjust building to keep the chance of a ship not being crewed constant like I expect we would it means the expected number of delayed builds in any given year without previous delays is around 0.5. In a year following a delay there would be a corresponding 50% chance of being able to compensate (which means 50% chance of being just short the next year once again), so in either case we would be expected to be around 0.5 Renaissances behind, until something other than crew becomes the most limiting. Total crew income is completely irrelevant to the probability of a marginal case, as long as crew income is our limiting factor.

Maybe this helps: Suppose there was only a single type of crew, builds were instant, the Renaissance had a crew cost of 1 and we had crew income following a normal distribution centered around exactly 1,000,000 per year. Due to symmetry there would be a 50% chance of the non-integer part of actual crew income being < 0.5, which means deducting 0.5 crew that year means one less Renaissance that year, e. g. only 999,999 instead of 1,000,000. The actual case is a bit more complicated, but mostly in ways that make it worse (3 different ways to be just short on crew, for example).

Honestly, your example didn't help, but I've figured out my mistake a different way.

The analysis using total crew income only makes sense if we pause all other ship construction the following year if there's a comparative crew deficit (even if we assume income is continuous and the delay only lasts 0.15 years or something), and then resume once the crew deficit is recouped. This obviously does not happen.

Another way to look at it is to have a simplified model of ship building: suppose we have a spherical cow berths build one type of ship continuously, total crew income is partitioned to each of these berths according to the annualized ship cost ratios between berths, and berths delay builds if their apportioned crew is insufficient. Then in a Renaissance-only building berth, it needs to be assigned at least 1 officer and 1.67 enlisted (and 1 tech) annually for full production. So it can take up to 2 years to recover a 2 officer and 2 enlisted shortfall in this berth. On the other hand, it would more realistically take less than a year to recoup that shortfall by 2320, because by this time, much of the Excelsior berths are doing refits, freeing up crew for other berths.

So yeah, I can see a significant delay in a single Renaissance berth that lasts until crew is no longer the bottleneck.

edit: wording

If I might, what we are essentially all arguing over is Net Present Value.

A ship today is worth more than an identical ship in two years time. We can all agree on that, right? But is a ship today worth more than a superior ship in two years time? Ah, that's the question. Sure, if we start a Connie-B next year that is in a sense one less Renaissance we will build in the grand scheme of history. But it's a ship that we will have two years sooner. Does having it two years sooner make up for the reduced stats and the lack of ability to upfit it?

You can't just look at the end result, but what's happening year-by-year. I admit, I'm becoming swayed by the argument that we don't want 2315 and 2316 to be "dead years" for cruiser production. That it would be nice to have at least one cruiser a year coming out those years to replace ships that get blown up, or as reinforcements against sudden need, or whatever. Three years is a long time in this quest. It's a long, long, time and events can change very rapidly. The Romulan/Klingon war is very likely to start before 2317, when we can expect our first wave of Renaissances to come out of dock. We will probably have ships lost due to war, natural disaster, or scientific misadventure before then.

That is the most compelling argument to start more Connie builds.

This is cogent point, and it's actually the main reason I think even a year of one less ship (a Centaur-A) is worth the +2 defense (and other improvements of Connie-B over Centaur-A) from 2315 until about 2320 when we hit the crew crunch and may need to delay a Renaissance.

But to be fair, I should point out that there would only be a 2-year gap without a 2312 Connie-B, and that would go down to a 1-year gap with a 2312 Connie-B.

Also, I think one of the key missing pieces of information that we really need is how much garrison requirements are going to change before 2315. AFAIK, we haven't had a bump in garrison requirements since 2304 (as the most recent fleet redeployment has shown), and we've had hints that one is coming up soon. I don't recall what the original pre-2304 garrison requirements are to see how much they were bumped up in 2304. I want to say around +3 per sector, but I can't find evidence of that. But let's suppose it is +3 per sector. Then with our soon-to-be 12 sectors, that's 36 additional defense to cover. That's in addition to up to 12 defense for the new SBZ and up to 30 defense for the new Apiata+Indoria and Rigel sectors by then. So the high estimate for new defense requirements is +78; it'll likely be lower than this, but it could be anywhere from say 50 to this number. And we do want to send more ships to the anti-Syndicate task force - we ideally want to add at least an Excelsior there.

Now, I think we're going to get 72 more defense worth in ships by the end of 2315, assuming we execute the base build plan. 3 more non-EC Excelsiors, 8 new Connie-Bs, 1 more Oberth, 1 more Centaur-A, 5 Constellation-A refits, and Miranda-A refits which don't matter here. We can build starbases and outposts to help with this as well.

But still, there is a very good possibility that our fleet will still be stretched thin by the end of 2315. That makes me want to squeeze out as much free defense during this time frame as we can, as long as we're not compromising other short term goals.
 
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Just to give a comparison, our current fleetwide defense requirements is 97, and we have 164, broken down below. Some of the excess is noted in the Syndicate Task Force, and we have 3 upcoming requirements (Sydraxian Border Zone, Rigel, and possibly Apinae) requiring something like ten defense each. This means we are comfortably above where we need to be, and could scrape up 30 points if needed. In addition, we have 31 defense in ships coming online next year.

An alternative view is to say that we really should meet our defense ratings, at least Federation-wide, with mobile assets. In that case, we have 109 in ships, vs the 97 required. Without the current task force, that's 98 - barely enough. The 31 defense in new ships will cover the 3 new needs. So, thoughts?


Sectors

Sol Sector - Requires 18 Has 20 (Fleet 15, Stations 5)
Sol D15, Betazed D3, Gaen D0
Fleet: 1 Excelsior [Endurance] (6), 3 Miranda [Lion, Bon Vivant, Fidelity] (6), 1 Constellation [Selaya] (3)
Stations: Starbase 1 (5)
Vulcan Sector - Requires 12 Has 12 (Fleet 7, Stations 5)
Vulcan D12
Fleet: 1 Constellation [Sappho] (3), 2 Mirandas (4) [T'Kumbra, Thunderhead]
Stations: Starbase I (5)
Andor Sector - Requires 9 Has 14 (Fleet 9, Stations 5)
Andor D9
Fleet: 1 Constellation (3) [Docana], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Lightning], 1 Miranda (2) [Eketha], 1 Oberth [Suvek] (1)
Stations: Starbase I (5)
Tellar Sector - Requires 9 Has 20 (Fleet 10, Stations 10)
Tellar Prime D9
Fleet: 1 Constellation (3) [Stalwart], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Gale], 2 Miranda (4) [Calypso, Shield]
Stations: Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5)
Amarkia Sector - Requires 9 Has 22 (Fleet 12, Stations 10)
Amarkia D9, Alukk D0
Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6) [Salnas], 2 Centaur-A (6) [Bull, Blizzard]
Stations: Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5)
Ferasa Sector - Requires 12 Has 16 (Fleet 11, Stations 5)
Ferasa D12, Risa D0
Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6) [Avandar], 1 Constitution-A (5) [Cheron]
Stations: Starbase I (5)
Rigel Sector - Requires 0 Has 5 (Fleet 0, Stations 5)
Rigel D0
Fleet: None
Stations: Starbase I (5)
Apinae Sector - Requires 0 Has 5 (Fleet 0, Stations 5)
Apinae D0, Indoria D0
Fleet: None
Stations: Starbase I (5)

Border Zones

Romulan Border Zone - Requires 12 Has 14 (Fleet 9, Stations 5)

Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6) [Excelsior], 1 Miranda (2) [Svai], Oberth [Hawking] (1)
Stations: Starbase I (5)
Klingon Border Zone - Requires 6 Has 9 (Fleet 9, Stations 0)
Caldonia D0
Fleet: 1 Excelsior(6) [Thirishar], 1 Miranda (2) [Intrepid], 1 Oberth (1) [Inspire]
Stations: None
Cardassian Border Zone - Requires 10 Has 15 (Fleet 15, Stations 0)

Fleet: 1 Excelsior (6) [Kumari), 2 Constellations (6) [Challorn, Vigour], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Winterwind]
Stations: None [Starbase I (5) in 2311.Q4]

Syndicate StarFleet Task Force - Requires 0 Has 11 (Fleet 11, Stations 0)

Fleet: 1 Constellation (3) [Kearsage], 2 Centaur-A (6) [Yukikaze, Zephyr], 1 Miranda (2) [Dryad]
Stations: None
Misc - Requires 0 Has 1 (Fleet 1, Stations 0)

Fleet: 1 Oberth (1) [T'Mir], on extended assignment
Stations: None
Federation Summary - Requires 97 Has 164 (Fleet 109, Stations 55)
Sol D15, Betazed D3, Gaen D0, Vulcan D12, Andor D9, Tellar Prime D9, Amarkia D9, Alukk D0, Ferasa D12, Risa D0, Rigel D0, Apinae D0, Indoria D0, RBZ D12, KBZ D6, Caldonia D0, CDZ D10
Fleet: 1 Const-A (5), 11-5 Explorer Corps gives 6 Excelsior (36), 7 Constellation (21), 4 Oberth (4), 11 Miranda (22), 7 CentA (21)
Stations: 9 Starbases (45), 2 Extra Outposts (10)

I'd vastly prefer it if most of our Defense was from mobile assets. Plus, I think we should try to do much more than meet the bare minimum Defense.
 
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I'd vastly prefer it if most of our Defense was from mobile assets. Plus, I think we should try to do much more than meet the bare minimum Defense.

Which it is at the federation level. Close but not quite 100% at multiple local levels anymore.

And how much more than the minimum do you want, in mobile assets? 20%? 50%?
 
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You're within paragraphs of finishing your review of a particularly alarming report from Linderly about infiltration attempts by Romulans masquerading as Vulcans, and it's disturbing material.

From now on all Vulcans must tell a joke to prove they are not Romulan. If it's funny in any way, they're an imposter.

Vulcan: Captain, I am here to comply with the new procedure from Starfleet Intelligence however I have a question.
Captain: Proceed Commander.
Vulcan: The information I have been asked to recite begins with the phrase "Knock, Knock" however as all the doors on the vessel have communication panels I don't believe this would be accurate. Should I instead begin by saying "Door chime, door chime"?
Captain: ........No need Commander. Please return to your duties.
 
For reserves, I'd like at least the equivalent of a sector defence fleet - so at least 12-18D in assets that we can redeploy anywhere at need.
 
For reserves, I'd like at least the equivalent of a sector defence fleet - so at least 12-18D in assets that we can redeploy anywhere at need.

If we get to that point we'll probably just see a rise in defense requirements across the board. Remember that during emergency situations garrison requirements are altered to allow us to redeploy the fleet to where it's needed. Unless we go for Fleet in Being, we probably won't have much use for a reserve fleet like that.
 
From now on all Vulcans must tell a joke to prove they are not Romulan. If it's funny in any way, they're an imposter.

Vulcan: Captain, I am here to comply with the new procedure from Starfleet Intelligence however I have a question.
Captain: Proceed Commander.
Vulcan: The information I have been asked to recite begins with the phrase "Knock, Knock" however as all the doors on the vessel have communication panels I don't believe this would be accurate. Should I instead begin by saying "Door chime, door chime"?
Captain: ........No need Commander. Please return to your duties.
What if they're both Vulcans? Because then the first Vulcan gives the recognition (bad) joke, but the second Vulcan is unable to tell whether it's funny or not.

If we get to that point we'll probably just see a rise in defense requirements across the board. Remember that during emergency situations garrison requirements are altered to allow us to redeploy the fleet to where it's needed. Unless we go for Fleet in Being, we probably won't have much use for a reserve fleet like that.
Firstly, having a reserve lets us redeploy ships without a Federation-wide emergency, which could be very important under the right conditions.

The Sydraxian raids do not constitute a Federation-wide emergency, but it sure would be nice to be able to pull together a fleet large enough that the Sydraxians are forced to pay attention to it, that isn't nailed down to our space. Likewise, the anti-Syndicate campaign is not an emergency, but it's great that we have 15-20 Defense worth of ships that can be committed to the surrounding area. That's the function served by a reserve force.

Secondly, having a reserve even in peacetime means we have a large and healthy reserve in the event of a declared emergency that lets us partially ignore sector defense requirements. Because our total deployable force is then our peacetime reserve, plus a force equal to half our defense requirements.

Thirdly, the peacetime reserve can be 'forward deployed,' positioned in advance to deal with a crisis that we anticipate, before it actually blows up to the point where the Council is sure there's a problem. That's a big advantage for us, because it means the difference between having a fleet handy to respond to an emergency in the first week, versus having to wait two or three weeks (or even more) for ships to arrive from other parts of the Federation.
 
It also means that we have an easier time organizing small missions like that one suggestion about the Kadeshi journey (which I'm still down for btw)
 
It also means that we have an easier time organizing small missions like that one suggestion about the Kadeshi journey (which I'm still down for btw)
I know, right?

Incidentally, the Explorer Corps SORT OF fulfills this function of peacetime reserve. This was in large part how we dealt with the Cardassian threat at first, and how we contained the Caitian-Dawiar War: by selectively 'exploring' the parts of space right around the threatened region, until we found the allies and positions we needed in order to protect ourselves.

The problem is that it's important to the function of our economy to have the Explorer Corps doing five-year missions, and that losses to an Explorer Corps ship have to be filled out of the (small, slowly-refilling) Explorer Corps crew pool. So it would be good if we could separate the 'explore' function from the 'peacetime reserve' function.
 
I know, right?

Incidentally, the Explorer Corps SORT OF fulfills this function of peacetime reserve. This was in large part how we dealt with the Cardassian threat at first, and how we contained the Caitian-Dawiar War: by selectively 'exploring' the parts of space right around the threatened region, until we found the allies and positions we needed in order to protect ourselves.

The problem is that it's important to the function of our economy to have the Explorer Corps doing five-year missions, and that losses to an Explorer Corps ship have to be filled out of the (small, slowly-refilling) Explorer Corps crew pool. So it would be good if we could separate the 'explore' function from the 'peacetime reserve' function.

Eh, as we expand and get more explorers that issue becomes largely non-existent in my opinion. Having to detach 2 of 4 explorers to deal with an emergency could have a serious impact on our economy/planning, detaching 2 of 10 for example would be far less impactful (and I don't think that most situations/crisis would require much more than that as a first reaction). Plus it is not like those ships are inactive during those periods, they still generate pp and resources at a fairly reasonably rate even if they focus their efforts on a smaller/specified area.
 
Sorry, things got muddled.

Us having the Explorer Corps concentrate its efforts on a specific area isn't a problem, but us pulling together several Explorer Corps ships to go do something like "go quash the Syndicate" or "appear over the Sydraxian homeworld and propose a negotiated redress of grievances" would be a problem.

Those are tasks best handled by regular Starfleet vessels, possibly with an Explorer Corps ship seconded to assist with [whatever].
 
Holena's dress aviators are now 100% going to be covered in tiny, micro-manufactured diamond crystals for maximum bling.
Nope. As for why, what you are proposing is far too gaudy for dress uniforms as it would make an uncoordinated mess, and far too heavy for our service uniforms. Honestly, my preference for our uniforms would be using the Prime universe's service uniforms, and use the Abrams movie canon for our dress uniforms.
 
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