On the theme of research, shipbuilding, and Starfleet not being completely silly, but still Starfleet. Vast bureaucracies plan against everything somewhere.

I suppose it also explains where the Defiant eventually came from. By that point, the office probably grew enough to actually design a ship of their own with Ben Sisko's help.

Did somebody say gun oberth?

The reason I ask is because it sounded like somebody said gun oberth.
 
So, meeting Breen?

I suspect that would be it as well, with the Oberth's sensors being replaced by all kinds of high-powered jamming gear.

Though the idea of an Oberth being a flying photon torpedo launcher has its appeal.
That's no Oberth, you fool, no Oberth! That's TORPEDOBERTH!
 
Diamonds are worthless!

> : D
Of course diamonds are worthless carbon! But they're a durable low-budget alternative to rhinestones for bringing out the subtle hues in the fabric of our personal cloaking technology with that sparkle. Replacing rhinestones all the time isn't cheap, and we need to keep our budget under control. Diamond-studded embroidery is an austerity measure.

Maybe when we're on a more secure economic footing we can afford acrylic rhinestones for everyone.
 
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I don't see how it makes sense to build a Connie-B instead of a Cenatur-A or an Oberth unless we intend to never build more of those. If we are expecting to build more Centaur-As we can pull up one of them and effectively replace the Connie-B with a Renaissance. Let's say we'd otherwise build the next Cenatur-A in 2318, and shift Renaissance builds around until then. Starting a Centaur-A in 2312, compared to starting a Connie-B: 2314: Centaur-A vs nothing. 2315-2316: Centaur-A vs Connie-B. 2317: Centaur-A + Renaissance vs Connie-B. 2318-2319: Centaur-A vs Connie-B. 2320+ : Renaissance vs Connie-B.

Long term costs are exactly the same (except one point of crew type difference), and we are clearly better off with the first version, especially once refits for the Renaissance become available. In the short term there are 2 years where we are significantly better off, and two years where we are worse of. If we are approximating the value of a ship with (sum of stats)^1.5 then we get:
2314: 70.1 vs 0
2315-16, 2318-19: 70.1 vs 110.3
2317: 195.1 vs 110.3

The average over those 6 years:
90.9 vs 91.9

So building a Centaur-A now instead of a Connie-B is essentially indistinguishable in the mid term and clearly better in the long term.

I'm not following your build schedule here, or why 2318-19 has lower numbers than 2317. Whether the numbers represent yearly commissioned vs cumulative total commissioned, something here is inconsistent. Also, the Renaissance's stats total up to 26, not 25, but that's not important.

I get the Centaur-A vs Connie-B in 2312 part obviously, but the rest of your build schedule I don't get, especially when you say "effectively replace the Connie-B with a Renaissance". As I understand it, we're planning to build as many Renaissances as possible, so if anything it's a "Centaur-A + Renaissances" vs "Connie-B vs Renaissances w/ one Renaissance in 2nd build wave effectively delayed". Are you talking about replacing that delayed Renaissance in the latter plan with a Centaur-A? That's the only way I can see this making sense.

If that is the case, I think your analysis is missing a key point: how long such a single Renaissance delay last, and whether it's even long enough to warrant replacing that delayed Renaissance with a Centaur-A.

Our officer and enlisted annual crew income currently is 8.35 and 8.95, respectively. By 2318, it should be about 11 and 13, respectively (exact numbers and officer:enlisted ratio varies but should be close enough). Let's also suppose event-based crew income still is -1 annually (i.e. 1 casualty annually), so a low-ball estimate of average officer and enlisted annual crew income + casualties over this time is 8 and 9.5, respectively.

Building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A results in an annualized shortfall of (3/3-1/2)=0.5 officers and (4/3-2/2)=0.33 enlisted. Both of these represent FAR less than a quarter's worth of officer and enlisted income.

(A Renaissance's annualized officer and enlisted cost is 1 and 1.67, respectively. That's also far less than a quarter's worth of income, but it's also not relevant, if all we care about is how long it takes to recoup the crew deficit from building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A.)

All this means is that building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A results in practically NO delay in building a Renaissance. There would be less than a 10% chance that we'd have to delay a Renaissance by a quarter.

That in turn, implies that it's back to a comparison between one Connie-B vs one Centaur-A, and NOT one Connie-B vs one Renaissance. And as previously pointed out, a Centaur-B is not likely to be better than a Connie-B: assuming a max of +1 per stat per refit, the very best the Centaur-B could be would have a stat line of C4 S4 H3 L4 P4 D5, which is C-1 S+1 P+1 D-1 versus a Connie-B - so better at science and presence, and worse at combat and response.

I'm losing respect for you here for even making such a ridiculous argument.

...really? You don't cap off a convincing rational argument by being an ass and concluding with an ad hominem.
 
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I'm not following your build schedule here, or why 2318-19 has lower numbers than 2317. Whether the numbers represent yearly commissioned vs cumulative total commissioned, something here is inconsistent. Also, the Renaissance's stats total up to 26, not 25, but that's not important.

I get the Centaur-A vs Connie-B in 2312 part obviously, but the rest of your build schedule I don't get, especially when you say "effectively replace the Connie-B with a Renaissance". As I understand it, we're planning to build as many Renaissances as possible, so if anything it's a "Centaur-A + Renaissances" vs "Connie-B vs Renaissances w/ one Renaissance in 2nd build wave effectively delayed". Are you talking about replacing that delayed Renaissance in the latter plan with a Centaur-A? That's the only way I can see this making sense.

If that is the case, I think your analysis is missing a key point: how long such a single Renaissance delay last, and whether it's even long enough to warrant replacing that delayed Renaissance with a Centaur-A.

Our officer and enlisted annual crew income currently is 8.35 and 8.95, respectively. By 2318, it should be about 11 and 13, respectively (exact numbers and officer:enlisted ratio varies but should be close enough). Let's also suppose event-based crew income still is -1 annually (i.e. 1 casualty annually), so a low-ball estimate of average officer and enlisted annual crew income + casualties over this time is 8 and 9.5, respectively.

Building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A results in an annualized shortfall of (3/3-1/2)=0.5 officers and (4/3-2/2)=0.33 enlisted. Both of these represent FAR less than a quarter's worth of officer and enlisted income.

(A Renaissance's annualized officer and enlisted cost is 1 and 1.67, respectively. That's also far less than a quarter's worth of income, but it's also not relevant, if all we care about is how long it takes to recoup the crew deficit from building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A.)

All this means is that building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A results in practically NO delay in building a Renaissance. There would be less than a 10% chance that we'd have to delay a Renaissance by a quarter.

That in turn, implies that it's back to a comparison between one Connie-B vs one Centaur-A, and NOT one Connie-B vs one Renaissance. And as previously pointed out, a Centaur-B is not likely to be better than a Connie-B: assuming a max of +1 per stat per refit, the very best the Centaur-B could be would have a stat line of C4 S4 H3 L4 P4 D5, which is C-1 S+1 P+1 D-1 versus a Connie-B - so better at science and presence, and worse at combat and response.

This is assuming that nothing bad happens between now and 2314.
 
"We must research cloak integration technology before we can use Rigellian cloaks."

"WHAT, HOW DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE, IT'S FASHION, YOU WEAR IT."

"Try putting it around your shoulders."

"I-I... I can't!"

"Style comes at a price, and what we call research in this case is more unorthodox than what you would expect in the hallowed halls of Boduk University or the Daystrom institute. Our halls will be hallowed, but not in the same way. No, not in the same way at all -- style comes at a price. Are you willing to pay it?"
 
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Let's be chill about an argument that, as near as I can tell, is over like, two ships.

True. Funny thing is that less than a decade ago, arguing over 2 ships was of paramount importance.

This is assuming that nothing bad happens between now and 2314.

Well it's more like this, between the plans:
2312-13: no difference
2314: 1 Centaur-A vs none
2315: 1 Centaur-A vs 1 Connie-B
long-term: practically the same with 1 Centaur-A (eventual refit to Centaur-B) vs 1 Connie-B, because there's negligible difference in terms of Renaissance building

So to summarize: In the 1 Connie-B plan vs the 1 Centaur-A plan, for a single year, we lose out on a ship, but from 2315 onwards, the Connie-B plan is overall superior.

I think some people are overly focused on the 2 officer and 2 enlisted deficit on an infinite planning horizon, without considering the annualized crew cost difference and annual crew income. It's like spending $25 on great dinner instead of $10 on a mediocre one, when you have an expendable income of at least $1000. Well, I'm not good with analogies, but what I'm trying to say is that it's a "miss the forest for the trees" type thing.
 
True. Funny thing is that less than a decade ago, arguing over 2 ships was of paramount importance.



Well it's more like this, between the plans:
2312-13: no difference
2314: 1 Centaur-A vs none
2315: 1 Centaur-A vs 1 Connie-B
long-term: practically the same with 1 Centaur-A (eventual refit to Centaur-B) vs 1 Connie-B, because there's negligible difference in terms of Renaissance building

So to summarize: In the 1 Connie-B plan vs the 1 Centaur-A plan, for a single year, we lose out on a ship, but from 2315 onwards, the Connie-B plan is overall superior.

I think some people are overly focused on the 2 officer and 2 enlisted deficit on an infinite planning horizon, without considering the annualized crew cost difference and annual crew income. It's like spending $25 on great dinner instead of $10 on a mediocre one, when you have an expendable income of at least $1000. Well, I'm not good with analogies, but what I'm trying to say is that it's a "miss the forest for the trees" type thing.

I suppose you've convinced me, then. Just so long as that berth is open and we have the resources to fill it by the time the Renaissance takes off.
 
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Diamonds are worthless!

> : D
They're not valuable in a replicator economy, but they are so very, very, sparkly. Considerably more so than any other material on account of having an index of refraction of "ridiculous."

They're like fabric dye! Fabric dye used to be monstrously expensive. Then it became cheap- but we still use it in high fashion. Because being able to control what color a garment is is impressive and important-looking and a major part of fashion, even if everybody can do it these days instead of all the peasants having to wear various shades of gray and brown.
 
I suppose you've convinced me, then. Just so long as that berth is open and we have the resources to fill it by the time the Renaissance takes off.

Berths shouldn't be an issue, since the plans differ by just 1 berth year, and we have enough gaps in berth time to cover that.

Hmm, considering this matter some more... Someone could say that if we had 2 extra officer and enlisted in the Centaur-A plan, we could build a Centaur-A immediately instead of building a Renaissance a bit earlier (compared to the Connie-B plan). But that again gets into the problem that that's still less than a quarter worth of crew income, and thus with the Renaissance build plan now being exactly the same, it's the difference of a quarter at most again. And if we have the berth space for that extra Centaur-A, we'll very likely have it in both plans. So, this argument doesn't help the Centaur-A plan.

Also, there is one wrinkle in my analysis and that's that I'm assuming a smooth quarterly income, when it's actually once-per-year income for the most part (quarterly event-based crew changes are minority of annual income). My probability is rusty, so my translating 0.5/9=0.0625 years or 0.25 quarters (time to cover officer shortfall; time to cover enlisted shortfall is lower) into <10% probability of a quarterly delay is of dubious validity. So I'll just stick with "mean delay time to cover shortfall" numbers. With once-per-year income, the delay itself has an equal chance of being 1-4 quarters, so would average 2.5 quarters instead of 1 quarter. Then if my logic is sound, the mean delay time would be 0.0625*2.5=0.15625 years...which is still less than a quarter.
 
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