I don't see how it makes sense to build a Connie-B instead of a Cenatur-A or an Oberth unless we intend to never build more of those. If we are expecting to build more Centaur-As we can pull up one of them and effectively replace the Connie-B with a Renaissance. Let's say we'd otherwise build the next Cenatur-A in 2318, and shift Renaissance builds around until then. Starting a Centaur-A in 2312, compared to starting a Connie-B: 2314: Centaur-A vs nothing. 2315-2316: Centaur-A vs Connie-B. 2317: Centaur-A + Renaissance vs Connie-B. 2318-2319: Centaur-A vs Connie-B. 2320+ : Renaissance vs Connie-B.
Long term costs are exactly the same (except one point of crew type difference), and we are clearly better off with the first version, especially once refits for the Renaissance become available. In the short term there are 2 years where we are significantly better off, and two years where we are worse of. If we are approximating the value of a ship with (sum of stats)^1.5 then we get:
2314: 70.1 vs 0
2315-16, 2318-19: 70.1 vs 110.3
2317: 195.1 vs 110.3
The average over those 6 years:
90.9 vs 91.9
So building a Centaur-A now instead of a Connie-B is essentially indistinguishable in the mid term and clearly better in the long term.
I'm not following your build schedule here, or why 2318-19 has lower numbers than 2317. Whether the numbers represent yearly commissioned vs cumulative total commissioned, something here is inconsistent. Also, the Renaissance's stats total up to 26, not 25, but that's not important.
I get the Centaur-A vs Connie-B in 2312 part obviously, but the rest of your build schedule I don't get, especially when you say "effectively replace the Connie-B with a Renaissance". As I understand it, we're planning to build as many Renaissances as possible, so if anything it's a "Centaur-A + Renaissances" vs "Connie-B vs Renaissances w/ one Renaissance in 2nd build wave effectively delayed". Are you talking about replacing that delayed Renaissance in the latter plan with a Centaur-A? That's the only way I can see this making sense.
If that is the case, I think your analysis is missing a key point: how long such a single Renaissance delay last, and whether it's even long enough to warrant replacing that delayed Renaissance with a Centaur-A.
Our officer and enlisted annual crew income currently is 8.35 and 8.95, respectively. By 2318, it should be about 11 and 13, respectively (exact numbers and officer:enlisted ratio varies but should be close enough). Let's also suppose event-based crew income still is -1 annually (i.e. 1 casualty annually), so a low-ball estimate of average officer and enlisted annual crew income + casualties over this time is 8 and 9.5, respectively.
Building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A results in an annualized shortfall of (3/3-1/2)=0.5 officers and (4/3-2/2)=0.33 enlisted.
Both of these represent FAR less than a quarter's worth of officer and enlisted income.
(A Renaissance's annualized officer and enlisted cost is 1 and 1.67, respectively. That's also far less than a quarter's worth of income, but it's also not relevant, if all we care about is how long it takes to recoup the crew deficit from building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A.)
All this means is that building a Connie-B vs a Centaur-A results in practically NO delay in building a Renaissance. There would be less than a 10% chance that we'd have to delay a Renaissance by a quarter.
That in turn, implies that it's back to a comparison between one Connie-B vs one Centaur-A, and NOT one Connie-B vs one Renaissance. And as previously pointed out, a Centaur-B is not likely to be better than a Connie-B: assuming a max of +1 per stat per refit, the very best the Centaur-B could be would have a stat line of C4 S4 H3 L4 P4 D5, which is C-1 S+1 P+1 D-1 versus a Connie-B - so better at science and presence, and worse at combat and response.
I'm losing respect for you here for even making such a ridiculous argument.
...really? You don't cap off a convincing rational argument by being an ass and concluding with an ad hominem.