EDIT:
@Leila Hann, what do you think about the headcanonish idea a few of us threw together a while ago, indicating that both the Klingons and Vulcans have some degree of genetic augmentation, with the Romulans having originally been unmodified Vulcans who
left Vulcan after their crazy splicer cousins wound up going Surakist just so they could maintain control of their crazy splicer-level emotions?
I doubt the Cardassians are going to do anything that drastic from just one diplopush on Bajor. At most, I'd expect them to put a few more ships in the CBZ and tell us to back off if we don't want trouble.
I would be
stunned if the Cardassians don't show up to try and re-establish control of Bajor by force some time between, oh, 100 and 300 relations. And our relations with Bajor are now on an upward ratchet
Its the hints we've gotten about the Apiata situation you should be worried about.
You may be assured that I'm worried about that too.
So what if the Bajorans become our affiliates and then the Cardassians occupy the planet?
Are we willing to go to war to liberate them? If so, congratulations, we're now in a three front war. If not, then why would anyone become our affiliate again?
Four; you forgot either the Syndicate, or the Lecarre/Dawiar.
So much Bajoran hate in this thread...
I like the Bajorans and want them to be safe. I just don't think we
can reasonably guarantee their safety until and unless we spend about two or three more years dealing with all the other crud that's getting in our way, and building up our fleet so we can have flank defenses AND enough ships to beat the Cardassians at the same time- one thing the Gray October crisis showed us was that as of 2310, we were struggling to maintain that kind of combination.
Nice! Yrillians are close to Affiliate, Kadeshi are there, and Bajorans will be there if we can reduce Cardassian influence
How do you propose to do that, pray tell?
Well, I feel vindicated. The exact Tech team the other plan wanted we got for free. For all the hand-wringing about the Bajorans, in the end they're in too deep with the Cardassians and simply don't become affiliates. No major problem for us.
UNLESS, of course, the Cardassian players over in Cardassian quest are busy pounding their screens and shouting "WHAT THE HELL," because they've been painstakingly raising relations with Bajor for several years and now they've got a message saying "Relations 315/500, close affiliate status obstructed, too much relationship with the Federation." In which case this may not turn out to be good news. The players of Cardassian Quest are pretty nasty people.
Plus, if the downside of pushing Bajor has failed to materialize (as yet less than certain), the
upside has also failed to materialize- we don't have significant influence over Bajor's neighborhood. And the fundamental point we've been making remains valid- that
sooner or later, both sides trying to establish a protectorate over the same planet will lead to war, and that the Cardassians aren't going to feel that they have the option of letting us establish a protectorate over Bajor.
I'm
willing to fight the Cardassians over Bajor. If I weren't, I'd advocate simply accepting Cardassian control of the planet right now, because it is borderline inconceivable to me that the Cardassians will give up the planet without a fight.* But while I'm willing to do it, I don't think we
can do it this year. It looks like hopefully we won't have to... but who knows?
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*Whatever is there, in canon it was so precious the Cardassians were willing to fight a forty year guerilla war to keep it, and they didn't give Bajor up until they were already in a tense conflict with the Federation- and even then they didn't give it up until they'd spent years
fighting the Federation.