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To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

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To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest) Starfleet Ship Design Bureau, Refit ("To Boldly Go...")
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ThoughtMaster said:
... It's going after Teller prime. If you draw a line from it's current location, it would pass Gamma Candae V, 21 Thermis VII, and 15 Thermis before passing into Orion space for resupply, from there, going north would be Hophos III-2, and then a straight shot to Teller Prime, the nexus of our trade routes. Destroy Teller Prime, and game over for the Federation as the entire logistics system collapses.
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Quite possible, given how much attention the QM drew to our trade network in the opening crisis post. If this is the case, the pit stop in Orion space is going to be their most vulnerable moment before reaching Teller Prime. Sounds like a good place to ambush them, if our counter-syndicate people can learn the details.

Of course, your theory isn't the only possibility. And even if you're right, they likely have secondary and tertiary targets picked out in case they can't make their rendezvous.
 
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Looking at the locations of known or suspected Cardassian assets (Bajor, -4f, -5c), I think I know where they're likely to attack: Ferasa and Indoria or Rethelia. Forming a up a fleetball right at the Catian-Dawair border pretty much dictates an attack there, and the FwC destroyer would be an excellent tool to restart that war if employed properly. While we're distracted by that the main fleet can take out one of our affiliates. They're probably counting on the Sydraxian/Yrillian threat on our corewards flank to keep substantial assets drawn that way.

I'm worried that Beta, Gamma, and Delta all give them one of their objectives for free. Alpha dilutes our forces a bit more than I'd like, but we don't have that much choice because we simply can't deploy to cover every likely target.
 
ThoughtMaster said:
... It's going after Teller prime. If you draw a line from it's current location, it would pass Gamma Candae V, 21 Thermis VII, and 15 Thermis before passing into Orion space for resupply, from there, going north would be Hophos III-2, and then a straight shot to Teller Prime, the nexus of our trade routes. Destroy Teller Prime, and game over for the Federation as the entire logistics system collapses.
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Or it could be running to Risa or Daiwar, if it's defecting.

I have doubts it would be able to entirely eliminate Tellar on its lonesome, even with the cloak.
 
pheonix89 said:
Looking at the locations of known or suspected Cardassian assets (Bajor, -4f, -5c), I think I know where they're likely to attack: Ferasa and Indoria or Rethelia. Forming a up a fleetball right at the Catian-Dawair border pretty much dictates an attack there, and the FwC destroyer would be an excellent tool to restart that war if employed properly. While we're distracted by that the main fleet can take out one of our affiliates. They're probably counting on the Sydraxian/Yrillian threat on our corewards flank to keep substantial assets drawn that way.

I'm worried that Beta, Gamma, and Delta all give them one of their objectives for free. Alpha dilutes our forces a bit more than I'd like, but we don't have that much choice because we simply can't deploy to cover every likely target.
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This is also a strong possibility.

However, our leading hypothesis is still that Miran has gone rogue.
 
Let's speculate a bit:


The Kadar-Tor is going after the Enterprise.
- They will need information on where the Enterprise is and I doubt they will have it. That means an attack on one of our outposts is imminent to gain that information.
- The Enterprise can be used as bait.
- Forward deployment allow responses to the attack wherever it falls.

The Cardassians are invading (and Kadar-Tor suicide runs).
- Striking for the direction of Bajor makes little sense to me. We have the entire Appinae sector and the entire Armakia sector in between them and anything vital. That's two affiliate/member fleets to blow through and weeks to months for us to react. Same for going through the Caitian sector. The only way this works is if the Kadar-Tor penetrates through and cuts off our response, but while one cloaked ship can do a lot of good against logistics and starbases, it can't stop the fleet from massing.
- If the Cardassians are invading, the Kadar-Tor is going to be doing deep ops while the fleet exploits the chaos. In that case, we intercept the Kadar-Tor on the border before the Cardassian fleet can arrive in force, or if it penetrates, use a small task-force to hunt it while the fleet confronts the Cardassian fleets over border sectors like Appinae and Ferrasa.

The Kadar-Tor is attempting defection.
- We should expect it to beeline for ships that can protect it. It hasn't, perhaps it wants to surrender closer to our territory, but the short of it is we should expect Cardassian fleets to scrape our borders and even penetrate somewhat to prevent this. A forward deployment would be able to head off Cardassian incursions while we hunt for the Kadar-Tor itself.

There is a third party involved, this is a reaction to them
- Again, forward defense allows us intervention.


Overall, I favor the forward defense plan. It is most applicable in most situations. What we don't want is to allow the Cardassian fleet itself to penetrate, nor overcommit to locating the Kadar-Tor (nor undercommit, but I feel we won't do that).
 
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Discarding the possibility of the Kadar-Tor going rogue, for the sake of analysis, the fleet around the Bajor area lets them pick the direction of any potential attack, but the move of the assets out of our border zone seems to indicate that as a flanking/diverting move. Therefore, I would not commit heavily to the Ferrasa area in more force than necessary to defeat the enemy CBZ assets, as the blow could still fall elsewhere, and assets in the Appinae area could still follow their main fleet and engage in the Ferrasa area.
 
Theunderbolt said:
Is it possible that the Cardassian's are going to occupy Bajor?
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A bit early in the timeline and the Kadar-Tor and frontier deployments don't make sense for that.

If it's an occupation/invasion of someone other than us, I'm thinking it's the Dawair - the Cardassians aren't going to be happy that the Catian/Dawair war ended in a white peace that they can't properly exploit.
SynchronizedWritersBlock said:
Discarding the possibility of the Kadar-Tor going rogue, for the sake of analysis, the fleet around the Bajor area lets them pick the direction of any potential attack, but the move of the assets out of our border zone seems to indicate that as a flanking/diverting move. Therefore, I would not commit heavily to the Ferrasa area in more force than necessary to defeat the enemy CBZ assets, as the blow could still fall elsewhere, and assets in the Appinae area could still follow their main fleet and engage in the Ferrasa area.
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Just converging the three explorers already in the Ferasia/Dawair region and shifting over KBZ or Andor sector ships should be enough for that front. Four Cardassian destroyers isn't nearly enough to take Enterprise, Sarek and S'harien backed by lighter transferred ships and the Catian fleet.
 
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pheonix89 said:
Just converging the three explorers already in the Ferasia/Dawair region and shifting over KBZ or Andor sector ships should be enough for that front. Four Cardassian destroyers isn't nearly enough to take Enterprise, Sarek and S'harien backed by lighter transferred ships and the Catian fleet.
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It's not even four - it's three and a science ship.

SynchronizedWritersBlock said:
[If it's a defection...]We should expect it to beeline for ships that can protect it. It hasn't
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Kadak-Tor's literally just left Cardassian space.
 
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pheonix89 said:
A bit early in the timeline and the Kadar-Tor and frontier deployments don't make sense for that.

If it's an occupation/invasion of someone other than us, I'm thinking it's the Dawair - the Cardassians aren't going to be happy that the Catian/Dawair war ended in a white peace that they can't properly exploit.

Just converging the three explorers already in the Ferasia/Dawair region and shifting over KBZ or Andor sector ships should be enough for that front. Four Cardassian destroyers isn't nearly enough to take Enterprise, Sarek and S'harien backed by lighter transferred ships and the Catian fleet.
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The Enterprise and Sarek alone have 98,6% chance of winning against 3 Jaldun if they don't get experience boni. If they do and are blooded it would be 71.8%. Only 20.8% if they are veteran though.
 
anon_user said:
It's not even four - it's three and a science ship.
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Ok, that's interesting.

Because they cannot possibly think that three destroyers plus a science ship can take three Excelsiors including Enterprise, or that three destroyers plus a science ship plus the Dawair fleet can take three Excelsiors including Enterprise plus the Catian fleet.

And that means that the Frontier Fleet is not there to attack Ferasa with any expectation of victory, unless they've got reinforcements we don't know about. Which means they are not planning on attacking from that angle at the moment unless A it's sacrifice ploy to keep some of our assets busy while they do something else, or B. our force assessment in the area is way off, or C. the Kadar-Tor is joining that group.

C is very unlikely because using an irreplacable asset like that as a linebreaker for anything other than the main force is madness.

It's possible that they expect us to redeploy the Execlsiors towards the main body, but that just makes it one hell of a gamble.
Nix said:
The Enterprise and Sarek alone have 98,6% chance of winning against 3 Jaldun if they don't get experience boni. If they do and are blooded it would be 71.8%. Only 20.8% if they are veteran though.
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Somehow I doubt the Cardassians have 3 veteran Jaldun, period.
 
pheonix89 said:
Ok, that's interesting.

Because they cannot possibly think that three destroyers plus a science ship can take three Excelsiors including Enterprise, or that three destroyers plus a science ship plus the Dawair fleet can take three Excelsiors including Enterprise plus the Catian fleet.

And that means that the Frontier Fleet is not there to attack Ferasa with any expectation of victory, unless they've got reinforcements we don't know about. Which means they are not planning on attacking from that angle at the moment unless A it's sacrifice ploy to keep some of our assets busy while they do something else, or B. our force assessment in the area is way off, or C. the Kadar-Tor is joining that group.

C is very unlikely because using an irreplacable asset like that as a linebreaker for anything other than the main force is madness.

It's possible that they expect us to redeploy the Execlsiors towards the main body, but that just makes it one hell of a gamble.

Somehow I doubt the Cardassians have 3 veteran Jaldun, period.
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But they would tie up three of our best ships. That means that the chance the rest of our fleet can defeat their main force is smaller, and we've already seen that in the worst case we're likely to lose a pitched fleet battle.

e: I'm not saying the tactic is bad, just that the use of the Cardassian CBZ forces as a diversionary force is effective even if they lose a fight.
 
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pheonix89 said:
Ok, that's interesting.

Because they cannot possibly think that three destroyers plus a science ship can take three Excelsiors including Enterprise, or that three destroyers plus a science ship plus the Dawair fleet can take three Excelsiors including Enterprise plus the Catian fleet.

And that means that the Frontier Fleet is not there to attack Ferasa with any expectation of victory, unless they've got reinforcements we don't know about. Which means they are not planning on attacking from that angle at the moment unless A it's sacrifice ploy to keep some of our assets busy while they do something else, or B. our force assessment in the area is way off, or C. the Kadar-Tor is joining that group.

C is very unlikely because using an irreplacable asset like that as a linebreaker for anything other than the main force is madness.

It's possible that they expect us to redeploy the Execlsiors towards the main body, but that just makes it one hell of a gamble.

Somehow I doubt the Cardassians have 3 veteran Jaldun, period.
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Also the fact that said group includes a science ship means it is likely that they are looking for something. As far as we know, the only cloaked vessel in the area is the Kadar-Tor, so maybe the Red October idea has merit.
 
SynchronizedWritersBlock said:
But they would tie up three of our best ships. That means that the chance the rest of our fleet can defeat their main force is smaller, and we've already seen that in the worst case we're likely to lose a pitched fleet battle.
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Hence why I speculated sacrifice play. And while we're likely to lose a Starfleet on Cardassian Fleet massed battle, A Starfleet + member fleets vs Cardassians battle is another question.
ThoughtMaster said:
Also the fact that said group includes a science ship means it is likely that they are looking for something. As far as we know, the only cloaked vessel in the area is the Kadar-Tor, so maybe the Red October idea has merit.
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Point.
 
ThoughtMaster said:
Also the fact that said group includes a science ship means it is likely that they are looking for something. As far as we know, the only cloaked vessel in the area is the Kadar-Tor, so maybe the Red October idea has merit.
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It's probably just that the Parnok was operating as part of the frontier unit anyway and they don't want to leave her by herself. Not like they are scrambling a science ship there from somewhere else.
 
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Derek58 said:
Don't jump to wild conclusions there is zero proof of if you don't want people to find it funny then.
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its actually an entirely plausible explanation when you think about it.

it really depends if the kadak-tor was near bajor when it sent that message that stirred up the ant-hill. and since all we have on its position is "it left cardassian space in our direction", being near bajor makes a lot of sense

send their "explorers" to a different area as decoys to buy time, and use the main fleet to secure the wormhole.
 
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DarknessSmiles said:
its actually an entirely plausible explanation when you think about it.

it really depends if the kadak-tor was near bajor when it sent that message that stirred up the ant-hill. and since all we have on its position is "it left cardassian space in our direction", being near bajor makes a lot of sense

send their "explorers" to a different area as decoys to buy time, and use the main fleet to secure the wormhole.
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They sent the message on the day they started their shakedown cruise, no time to have discovered anything let alone a wormhole in Bajoran space.
 
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