So I've been looking at the data we got from the micro-report on Breen fleet size, and it's fairly worrying. I'm currently working on a slightly longer report, but some fast division suggests the Breen fleet is very heavy on capital ships or possibly unknown heavy cruisers, especially given the low stats of their frigates.
 
Whew, things have been busy since I last looked. GIven the speed Pavel's TF has been chewing through those tags, what's the plans for those ships when the job is done?

Also GMs, is there any pp option to accelerate Federalization to now?
 
That fleet isn't so bad. It doesn't quite meet the strength needed to push past the Romulan fleet under fixed defenses without significant attrition. And we also know that Breen capital ships are C-biased. I'm guessing the fleet size is the result of years of dedicated buildup as they realized the Romulans were losing against the Klingons. The war ended suddenly even for us, after all.

My guesses:
We saw their skirmish or possibly escort frigate, which is why they could chase the Courageous for so long.
They likely have a vanguard frigate along the lines of the combat Takaaki (C4, less protection than firepower).
I'm guessing a mid sized slower modern cruiser with C6 with good protective stats, at least 10 H+L. If their tech is not slightly behind and is in fact at parity, C7 for a mid sized cruiser like the Kaldar. But based on their battleship, if they have no modern cruiser or their cruisers are small 1mt like ours, C5 more along the lines of the Connie-B. It's hard to say but if their fleet makeup is typical (note I'm stacking many ifs here) I would expect the bulk of their firepower and especially their fleet protection to be cruisers.
The battleship could potentially be their longer range unit. I suspect the Breen like their battleships though, and fleets might be structured around this heavy metal anchor. If so, I expect cruisers designed to make up for its weaknesses and escort frigates aplenty.
I expect that there is a replacement battleship with higher stats but low production numbers. Anyone dragging around a refit capital will be working on its replacement.
Missing from this lineup is a scouting frigate, I suspect they'd have a specialist scout design with C3+ S5+ along the lines of the Amarki Mielab.
I suspect the Breen fleet lacks good event response stats, especially presence. Slow heavy ships, frigates aside, seems likely.
 
Whew, things have been busy since I last looked. GIven the speed Pavel's TF has been chewing through those tags, what's the plans for those ships when the job is done?
They spend three to six months, depending upon just how fast we chew through the tags, floating around either the Spinward or Central Theater doing nothing until the 2323.Q4 deployment vote. Well the Thirishar and Torch might respond to some events but the three Miranda-As have too low Defense values to respond with the Theater penalty and the others are all Memberships which as per:
MEMBER UNITS ONLY FILL OUT THEATER FLEETS AND TASK FORCES. MEMBER UNITS DO NOT RESPOND TO EVENTS.) If we wanted member fleet ships on patrol we'd leave them where they are
don't respond to events and so will just sit in the Theater doing nothing.
 
People are asking about pp and whether it has dropped. Using lbmain's audit spreadsheet, I'm going to give you pp income/losses from Events only (not including regular income) for the past 8 years or so. So "gain" is what we got from events and stuff like fulfilling ambitions or having new members join. "Loss" is penalties due to Events and spending during MWCO or for task forces, but not including spent during snakepit.

2315 - 330pp gain / 85pp losses (note this we got 125 pp gain from special "These are the Voyages" loss of Enterprise event)
2316 - 335 gain / 45pp losses (includes +25pp for Gaeni membership)
2317 - 365pp gain / 14pp losses (includes +50pp for meeting Starfleet ambition)
2318 - 468pp gain / 165pp loss (includes +100pp for meeting Science and Defense goals; includes -55pp deliberately spent during MWCO; but there was a lot of pp loss due to failures)
2319 - 305pp gain / 75pp loss (Includes -10pp loss duing MWCD and -40 loss for task force attachments)
2320 - 236pp gain / 141pp loss (Includes +25pp gain for Risa membership, includes -26pp loss for Themis decision, and -40pp for calling up 8pts of member ships)
2321 - 216pp gain / 95pp loss (Includes +20 gains for completing Excelsiors with explorer esteem; includes -20pp for retaining 8pts member ships)
2322 - 305pp gain / 254pp loss (Includes +25pp for saving all of time; includes -5pp during MWCD, -15pp for allowing Trill Task Force, and -121 for drawing on member ships and attachments)
 
Whew, things have been busy since I last looked. GIven the speed Pavel's TF has been chewing through those tags, what's the plans for those ships when the job is done?

Also GMs, is there any pp option to accelerate Federalization to now?

A lot of his TF is ships given by the STO specifically for that mission that we didn't have to pay pp for. So we can expect those ships to go back to their usual patrol duties. The remainder will go into the theatre fleet until reassignment.
 
The better question for BV is... We've significantly increased our fleet size since 2315. Yet our PP income is stagnant or decreased. Hmm...
 
They spend three to six months, depending upon just how fast we chew through the tags, floating around either the Spinward or Central Theater doing nothing until the 2323.Q4 deployment vote. Well the Thirishar and Torch might respond to some events but the three Miranda-As have too low Defense values to respond with the Theater penalty and the others are all Memberships which as per:

don't respond to events and so will just sit in the Theater doing nothing.

In fairness, the STO ships were allocate for "free" for that specific task force, so it's only two Amarki frigates that we paid for but will go back into the box before the year is out. (If we're lucky....)

And who knows, perhaps the Mirandas will manage a Theater response. Anyone can roll high!
 
So....

We had 275 pp at the end of year after receiving EOY income. The current plan spends 136pp. That leaves 144pp remaining.

Assume we get ~20pp from Events in Q1. Assume that even though we fulfill our Starfleet ambition this year, as per past practice the points are not applied under after the Snakepit.

164pp to spend.

MANDATORY - Reorganise a Starfleet Command from a Vice Admiral position to an Admiral position. Pick one: 50pp for Shipyard Ops, (This may create subordinate Vice Admiral positions)

HIGHLY NEEDED - Adrazzi Gulf Colonies and Listening Post (so that we claim the territory we just explored and make the claim real with boots on the ground)
  • 71 Apizza V (15 (30) SR/year, upper-middle of (-1g)) - 7pp
  • 77 Azzadi IV-3 (20 (35) SR/year, spin-corewards corner of (-1f)) - 7pp
  • 19 Itztli (25 (35) BR/year, tailward side of (-1g)). - 7pp
  • Candidate listening post site at 101 Arrazziz. - ??? (assume 10pp)
81 pp spend. 83pp remaining.

Could do 4 diplomatic pushes, or something else useful.

Thoughts?
 
Could do 4 diplomatic pushes, or something else useful.

We need to push both the Licori and Felis. Get them to affiliate level so the FDS can do their magic. We should also consider pushing the OSA to attack their tag on multiple fronts-it's pretty crucial and every point the push completes is a point the Task Force doesn't need to worry about so they can focus on stopping the war.

We could push the Shanpurr or Gretarians to get them to affiliate level, but those are lower priority, I think. Maybe allocate a push to the Breen in keeping with the goal of establishing diplomatic backchannels?
 
we should drop the Reorganise a Starfleet Command from a Vice Admiral position to an Admiral position option I know its not what we want to do but we need to buy as many of the colonies as we can and all 5 of the diplo pushes. The Snakepit options should only be colonies and Diplo pushes.
 
Actually, with those Nearly at War tags existing, what impact will a push have on one of those species? We might be able to spend more now on the task forces (if any more ships can be spared), and skip the diplo pushes on them.
 
FYI, but I updated Task Force Beyond to put Min-Jin Lee in charge. I realized she has enough TIR to simply promote her to Rear Admiral. I also squeezed a Blooded Constitution-B out of Ferasa to go to Beyond, making their third ship a Miranda-A.

Reasons for Min-Jee Lee:
As a Rear Admiral, her bonus of +1P will also apply to every flagship in her fleet (at least two; maybe 3), whereas a reroll would not. Also, her SPICE score has Presence 4, Insight 3, Command 3, making her superior to Tomas Meyer for this job.


[X] [TASK] Task Force: Beyond

Mission: Mission: Remove Horizon Influence from Licori, Felis, and from OSA.
Commander: Min-Jee Lee - +1 P on flagship [Promote to Rear Admiral - she has enough time in rank]
Attachments:
Free FDS Diplomatic Team attachment
Starfleet Tactical Brass: 0pp per year. Enables coordination events with other powers
Molchenek-Danashad: 3 pp per year. Effect: +1 to the first diplomatic roll involving a capitalist society each quarter
Sam Jones: 10 br on purchase, 10 br per year. Effect: Gain both sr & relations on trade summit missions for this task force.
NEW Harbind-Attu Institute Research Team: 40 rp on purchase, 20 rp per year. Effect: Receive a bonus to a technology related to the Task Force's activities each year.

Ships 2323.Q1:
  • Explorers: 2 Starfleet Excelsior-A [Salnas (B)], Endurance (B)], 1 Caitian Excelsior-A [Hrvass], 1 Starfleet Constitution-A [Cheron (V)]
  • Cruisers: 2 Apiata Little Queenship, 1 Orion Nelhiar Savings & Loan Enforcer Cruisers [OUS Nelhiar's Pride], 1 Starfleet Constitution-B (5) [Defiant (B)]
  • Frigates: 1 Starfleet Centaur-B [Chinook], 1 Betazoid Centaur-Bs, 4 Apiata Stingers, 1 United Earth Centaur-B
  • Notes: Drop to 15 ships. Several of the cruisers have been switched out for Centaur-Bs.

The sad part is, since we expect Beyond to lose some ground this year, poor Min-Jin gets the dog of an assignment once again.
 
@Briefvoice Can I have a link to the Ledger that you used to make your snakepit options. I want to post a possible Snakepit option list of my own to give everyone a guideline of what we can expect of my Colonies and Diplo Pushes only list.
 
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we should drop the Reorganise a Starfleet Command from a Vice Admiral position to an Admiral position option I know its not what we want to do but we need to buy as many of the colonies as we can and all 5 of the diplo pushes. The Snakepit options should only be colonies and Diplo pushes.

Do you want our ships to suddenly have unexpected delays that prevent their launch by multiple quarters? Do you want BR and SR costs to randomly balloon? For our build schedule to become unreliable?

Because let me tell you, Federalization will more than double the number of berths to be managed. It is most definitely not an Admiral-level job anymore. Clearest case yet. I can only hope we get a pp discount on the cost because it so obviously needs to be done.

Hmm. @Briefvoice , can Pavel's TF be reassigned to others in Q2 or 3? What would the cost be?

We did it with Handshake last year, but that's when we definitely knew exactly when the TF ended. Ask the GMs if it's doable, not me.

@Briefvoice have a link to the Ledger that you used to make your snakepit options. I want to post a possible Snakepit option list of my own to give everyone a guideline of what we can expect of my Colonies and Diplo Pushes only list.

I don't have a ledger; i looked up last year's Snakepit and then looked at the TF report posts for Boldly-discovered colony locations.
 
Has the combat data from the Corageous incident been shared with the Romulans they might find it valuable at least before the shooting starts between them and the Breen?
 
Analysis of the Breen Fleet Pursuant to Intelligence Report:
The Breen fleet appears to be a powerful force for a minor power. This analysis contains 4 potential fleet compositions, covering both extremes of possible total C scores, as well as 2 fleet compositions in the middle of that range, and supposes 2 new types of Breen ship which were previously unknown.​

Ship Type Analysis:
Intelligence believes that there are 3-4 ship types currently in service with the Breen fleet. Of these, two are known, the Breen Refit Capital and the Breen Frigate. The currently known Breen Frigate appears to be a combat light vessel. The author of this report believes it likely that the Breen also maintain a combat dedicated frigate and a heavy cruiser design.

Breen (Scout?) Frigate:​
The Breen Frigate has a standardized stat line of C2H2L3. Given that two of these ships were ordered to pursue Courageous into a nebula, this report expects that this frigate is a science oriented combat vessel, similar to the Amarkian Mielab-class light frigate. If this is accurate, then the Breen Frigate likely has an standardized S-score of 5-6. In the fleet analysis, this ship is referred to as the FS.

Breen Combat Frigate (Speculative):​
It is fairly doubtful that the Breen would produce a combat weak frigate, with no supporting small assets, especially given that their income is presumably rather lower than that of the pre-war Romulans or the UFP. Therefore, this report suggests a Breen Combat Frigate, perhaps similar to the Amarkian Anacail, with a C of 4-5, and similar H and L scores based on the rounded nature of their capital ship.

Breen Heavy Cruiser (Speculative):​
As the Breen are a minor power, this report expects that the Breen are unable to maintain a fleet built entirely around capital ships. Therefore, the Breen likely maintain a heavy cruiser, probably similar to the Kaldar or Kaldar-bis. This report expects that this design makes up the majority of the Breen vanguard/heavy metal force, and supplements their capital ships. Based on comparison to the Breen Refit Capital and the Kaldar-bis, this ship is expected to have a standardized stat line of C6-7 H4-5 L5-7.

Breen Refit Capital:​
The Breen refit capital is a powerful fleet unit, and is probably the most powerful ship in the Breen inventory. It appears to be a fairly well-rounded battleship, and other capabilities are unknown. Based on the limited number of ship types given by the intelligence report this document is based on, this report expects that all Breen capital ships are of this type. It has a known standardized stat line of C8H6L8.

Fleet Composition Analysis:

Minimum Fleet Size and Power:
With an average C score of 5.625, this minimum fleet of 180C and 32 ships is likely biased towards their capital ships and heavy cruisers. In fact, calculations indicate that this fleet would have to be split more than 50/50 in favor of BBs and CAs. A possible breakdown of such a fleet is as follows:
6 BB
14 CA
8 FF
8 FS
This assumes CAs with 6C, and is a fully believable figure.
Rambling Calculations said:
The simplest breakdown is half frigates half cruisers and capitals. That means 16 CAs and BBs, and 16 FSs and FFs. Splitting FSs and FFs down the middle, and assuming 4 BBs, gives us a fleet of 8 FS, 8 FF, 12 CA, and 4 BB. This does not produce a high enough combat score with the CAs at 6C nor at 7.

Changing assumptions slightly to 6 BBs and 10 CAs is still not enough.

What about a fleet of 8 BB and 8 CA? This is still not enough. Even an all BB fleet is not enough to reach 180C. What if the split was 20 CA/BB and 12 FF/FS however? Then we have a score of 188C assuming even splits everywhere else, and cruisers of 6C. Dropping the number of BBs allows us to get exactly 180.

Therefore, the Breen fleet is not 32 ships strong, or is even more heavily biased towards capital ships and cruisers than a 50/50 split.
Maximum Fleet Size and Power:
With an average C score of 5.8, this fleet is even more biased towards capitals and cruisers than the minimum fleet. A series of calculations shows that, to reach 290, the Breen fleet might be as follows:
26 BB
0 CA
17 FF
7 FS
This fleet has none of the presumed cruisers, and a number of BBs close to the number of Starfleet Excelsiors.
Rambling Calculations said:
However, we will assume a nearly even split, of 26 BB and CA, and 24 FS and FF. Assuming an even split within those categories, we reach a C of 267. This is a believable fleet power for the Breen, but is not the maximum.
As these assumptions are still not particularly working out, we will change the number of FSs to 8, and FFs to 16.
This gets us to a fleet power of 280, only ten away from maximum. We now assume the worst case scenario, that the Breen have no cruisers and only capitals. This gets us to 288C, close enough to the maximum to be regarded as such. If there was one more FF and one less FS, this would be 290.
Medium Fleet (235C, 44 ships):
This fleet has an average C of 5.3, the lowest so far. This report predicts a fleet at this size as follows:
7 BB
15 CA
15 FF
7 FS
The author believes this to be the most believable fleet composition seen for the Breen, as it more closely matches the fleet composition of the Amarki, another force biased towards their capital units, and possibly the closest comparison so far. However, it should be noted that this presumes that Breen cruisers have 7C. A reworked composition assuming 6 C is as follows:
14 BB
8 CA
15 FF
7 FS
This composition produces a fleet of 234C.

Rambling Calculations said:
Working from an assumption of 50/50 heavy/light, 6 BBs, and 50/50 scout/combat, we have a fleet of 6BB, 16CA, 11FF, and 11FS. This gives a total of 226C, slightly under the estimate. Dropping the number of FS to 7 and increasing the number of FFs, we get a total of 234 C, right on the mark. Switching a CA and a BB gets us 235.

Reworking to assume a cruiser of 6C, we have to drop to 8 cruisers to get a fleet power of 234C.

Wow, ok, that took a long while.
 
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