Analysis of the Breen Fleet Pursuant to Intelligence Report:
The Breen fleet appears to be a powerful force for a minor power. This analysis contains 4 potential fleet compositions, covering both extremes of possible total C scores, as well as 2 fleet compositions in the middle of that range, and supposes 2 new types of Breen ship which were previously unknown.
Ship Type Analysis:
Intelligence believes that there are 3-4 ship types currently in service with the Breen fleet. Of these, two are known, the Breen Refit Capital and the Breen Frigate. The currently known Breen Frigate appears to be a combat light vessel. The author of this report believes it likely that the Breen also maintain a combat dedicated frigate and a heavy cruiser design.
Breen (Scout?) Frigate:
The Breen Frigate has a standardized stat line of C2H2L3. Given that two of these ships were ordered to pursue
Courageous into a nebula, this report expects that this frigate is a science oriented combat vessel, similar to the Amarkian
Mielab-class light frigate. If this is accurate, then the Breen Frigate likely has an standardized S-score of 5-6. In the fleet analysis, this ship is referred to as the FS.
Breen Combat Frigate (Speculative):
It is fairly doubtful that the Breen would produce a combat weak frigate, with no supporting small assets, especially given that their income is presumably rather lower than that of the pre-war Romulans or the UFP. Therefore, this report suggests a Breen Combat Frigate, perhaps similar to the Amarkian
Anacail, with a C of 4-5, and similar H and L scores based on the rounded nature of their capital ship.
Breen Heavy Cruiser (Speculative):
As the Breen are a minor power, this report expects that the Breen are unable to maintain a fleet built entirely around capital ships. Therefore, the Breen likely maintain a heavy cruiser, probably similar to the
Kaldar or
Kaldar-bis. This report expects that this design makes up the majority of the Breen vanguard/heavy metal force, and supplements their capital ships. Based on comparison to the Breen Refit Capital and the
Kaldar-bis, this ship is expected to have a standardized stat line of C6-7 H4-5 L5-7.
Breen Refit Capital:
The Breen refit capital is a powerful fleet unit, and is probably the most powerful ship in the Breen inventory. It appears to be a fairly well-rounded battleship, and other capabilities are unknown. Based on the limited number of ship types given by the intelligence report this document is based on, this report expects that all Breen capital ships are of this type. It has a known standardized stat line of C8H6L8.
Fleet Composition Analysis:
Minimum Fleet Size and Power:
With an average C score of 5.625, this minimum fleet of 180C and 32 ships is likely biased towards their capital ships and heavy cruisers. In fact, calculations indicate that this fleet would have to be split more than 50/50 in favor of BBs and CAs. A possible breakdown of such a fleet is as follows:
6 BB
14 CA
8 FF
8 FS
This assumes CAs with 6C, and is a fully believable figure.
Rambling Calculations said:
The simplest breakdown is half frigates half cruisers and capitals. That means 16 CAs and BBs, and 16 FSs and FFs. Splitting FSs and FFs down the middle, and assuming 4 BBs, gives us a fleet of 8 FS, 8 FF, 12 CA, and 4 BB. This does not produce a high enough combat score with the CAs at 6C nor at 7.
Changing assumptions slightly to 6 BBs and 10 CAs is still not enough.
What about a fleet of 8 BB and 8 CA? This is still not enough. Even an all BB fleet is not enough to reach 180C. What if the split was 20 CA/BB and 12 FF/FS however? Then we have a score of 188C assuming even splits everywhere else, and cruisers of 6C. Dropping the number of BBs allows us to get exactly 180.
Therefore, the Breen fleet is not 32 ships strong, or is even more heavily biased towards capital ships and cruisers than a 50/50 split.
Maximum Fleet Size and Power:
With an average C score of 5.8, this fleet is even more biased towards capitals and cruisers than the minimum fleet. A series of calculations shows that, to reach 290, the Breen fleet might be as follows:
26 BB
0 CA
17 FF
7 FS
This fleet has none of the presumed cruisers, and a number of BBs close to the number of Starfleet
Excelsiors.
Rambling Calculations said:
However, we will assume a nearly even split, of 26 BB and CA, and 24 FS and FF. Assuming an even split within those categories, we reach a C of 267. This is a believable fleet power for the Breen, but is not the maximum.
As these assumptions are still not particularly working out, we will change the number of FSs to 8, and FFs to 16.
This gets us to a fleet power of 280, only ten away from maximum. We now assume the worst case scenario, that the Breen have no cruisers and only capitals. This gets us to 288C, close enough to the maximum to be regarded as such. If there was one more FF and one less FS, this would be 290.
Medium Fleet (235C, 44 ships):
This fleet has an average C of 5.3, the lowest so far. This report predicts a fleet at this size as follows:
7 BB
15 CA
15 FF
7 FS
The author believes this to be the most believable fleet composition seen for the Breen, as it more closely matches the fleet composition of the Amarki, another force biased towards their capital units, and possibly the closest comparison so far. However, it should be noted that this presumes that Breen cruisers have 7C. A reworked composition assuming 6 C is as follows:
14 BB
8 CA
15 FF
7 FS
This composition produces a fleet of 234C.
Rambling Calculations said:
Working from an assumption of 50/50 heavy/light, 6 BBs, and 50/50 scout/combat, we have a fleet of 6BB, 16CA, 11FF, and 11FS. This gives a total of 226C, slightly under the estimate. Dropping the number of FS to 7 and increasing the number of FFs, we get a total of 234 C, right on the mark. Switching a CA and a BB gets us 235.
Reworking to assume a cruiser of 6C, we have to drop to 8 cruisers to get a fleet power of 234C.
Wow, ok, that took a long while.