- Location
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It looks like to me that it is happening. The FDS is going to meet a delegation from the Sydraxians.
To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)
- Thread starter OneirosTheWriter
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It looks like to me that it is happening. The FDS is going to meet a delegation from the Sydraxians.
You are counting on our actions not having the negative consequences that they've already been demonstrated to be able to cause (Bajor), when there's a good chance we don't even need to do much in order to get our way. I think that isn't wise either.
Timing is right in this case. With Bajor, we waited a full year, and the Cardassians had the means to do something, neither of which is true in this situation. If we don't move now, we will not have the opportunity again next year. And the subject isn't going to happen in negotiations.
- Location
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Maybe not the initial negotiaons but we can get them split from the pact as a good result which would go to follow up negotiate and combined with a push on the Yrillians could in a good case result in all three becoming affiliates.
I want to know though what are your best case and worst case outcomes of a push on the Graterians this year
For reference:
Best case, if diplomacy wins: Sydraxians reform their government under some combination of the Gabiel School and the Vanguard, split from Cardassia, open talks with us, and release Gretaria from vassalage. Long-term, we may or may not be able to affiliate both, but propably at least the latter.
Neutral case, if diplomacy doesn't win: A moderate compromise-government emerges over the Sydraxi that's neither friendly nor hostile to us and the Cardassians both. In a few years they've stabilized enough for their politics to stop changing, and we can see if they're willing to talk with us and release the Gretarians of their own free will. If they don't, they won't have rebuilt their fleet enough to be a credible threat to us, and we can still forcefully push the Gretarians loose.
Worst case, if an aggressive push fails: Gretaria is successfully freed by force exerted from us. This act causes the Sydraxians to radicalize against us, and the old government parties get back into secure power. Effectively, nothing changes where they are concerned. Long-term, they'll rebuild their fleet, and attack us again, at a time when their Cardassian masters are strong enough to press us and a threat on our flanks is something we really don't need. We end up right back where we were years ago.
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- Location
- Germany
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... Invoke the Ashalla pact, pact attacks without the Feds realizing the Cardassian would so NOW, initial successes by the Cardassians, low moral with Federation members, Gretarian home world bombed, lots and lots of suffering.
- Location
- USA
That is my nightmare case. Worst case is a push back by cardassians in the gbz, and sydraxians and yrillians raiding. And right now we have a lot of ships both starfleet and memeber worlds over by the Licori
Maybe, but that's digging so far into worst case that SWB could, rightly, state in return that a reformed Sydraxi government would piss the Cardies off enough to invade also, so we should just cut our losses where they are concerned and concentrate on the Gretarians. Let's keep it reasonable, maybe, with scenarios that we actually think likely.
The Cardassians attacking now, I don't think all that likely, when they haven't already, and at the same time stand to gain quite a bit of combat power by waiting on their first run of new shipbuilding. More combat power than the Sydraxians switching camp could cost them and gain us, possibly.
Between the Dawiar and the Sydraxi, their vassals have proven unreliable enough that with their new influx of resources, I can very well see them decide to do the job by themselves.
Or at the very least, if they are going to attack now after all, I don't see the Sydraxians and Gretarians making much of a difference in their decision.
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Forces of our border members and affiliates alone rival the Ashalla Pact's total, and the Sydraxians don't have ships to fight a war.
In the case of a split from the pact (and therefore the Treaty of Celos), we would see the Cardassians rightly pursuing us a breach of treaty, which is a nightmare scenario. The fact that the Sydraxians have taken pains to avoid government to government contact in their "concerned citizens" ploy means that they are committed to the Treaty of Celos and therefore to the Ashalla Pact. That also means that the FDS will not be violating the Treaty of Celos to negotiate things like Gretarian freedom.
I must therefore only accept scenarios where a friendly government in Dar Nakar is also an enemy government in a general war against Cardassia.
So the best and worst results of a Gretarian push right now are:
- Best Case: The Gretarians become affiliates, the Red Hierarchy is utterly humiliated politically, isolationist movements gain additional traction and popularity, the Sydraxians withdraw for a time to recover economically and emerge in 2-3 years as a Cardassian-aligned but nominally friendly power like the Dylaarians, with ambitions towards their Northern reaches and towards the Gabriel Expanse.
- Worst Case: The Gretarians do not become affiliates, the Red Hierarchy rallies the military around Federation aggression and starts a civil war, the civil war destroys the Sydraxians economically, they emerge in 2-3 years as a Cardassian-aligned and enemy power like the Lecarre, with ambitions towards Gretaria, Yrillia, and Federation space.
In any case, we see that:
1. The Sydraxians remain Cardassian-aligned and will lend their military strength to the Ashalla Pact in wartime. There is no scenario that removes them as a thorn in our flank in case of a war.
2. The Gretarians are removed from Sydraxian influence for long enough to establish them as Federation affiliates.
I could care less about the state of Sydraxia itself.
- Location
- somewhere
The relationship between Gretarians and Sydraxians hasn't been formalized, nor are there any grounds for prohibiting us from so much as talking to them, and there certainly isn't any basis for invoking any defensive agreements. It's possible the Cardassians might want to attack us anyway, but there is no reason to use talks with an informal client of a client as a pretext, if they want war they will almost certainly be able to find or manufacture a better pretext.
- Location
- Germany
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- He/Him
If we get the Gretarians, a vassal of one of their members, they might feel pressed to act decisively, to show the other pact members that they won't take that.
In short: I don't think that outcome is impossible, nor likely. Somewhat around fifteen percent.
The Treaty of Celos prevents contact with the Sydraxian government. We can only go so far with negotiated understandings with informal parties. Negotiated Gretarian freedom would require more formal negotiations than we are allowed to pursue under Celos.
- Location
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A few things.
The concerned citizens could also be their way to do an end around the Treaty of Celia and with successful negotiate could trigger their withdrawal from the Pact. At that point they would no longer fall under the Treaty and could resume normal contact with us.
Also can you see no scenario where they or the Yrillians launch raids? Possibly combined with Cardassian aggression in the GBZ? And I think you underestimate the strength of the pact more so with ships tied into the Licori crisis.
The concerned citizens could also be their way to do an end around the Treaty of Celia and with successful negotiate could trigger their withdrawal from the Pact. At that point they would no longer fall under the Treaty and could resume normal contact with us.
Also can you see no scenario where they or the Yrillians launch raids? Possibly combined with Cardassian aggression in the GBZ? And I think you underestimate the strength of the pact more so with ships tied into the Licori crisis.
- Location
- somewhere
My point is that it doesn't prevent talks with the Gretarians (i. e. the push).
Additionally, unless I'm grossly misremembering Celos only prohibits us from coming to talk to them. The Sydraxians can come to us and initiate talks all they like, and Celos simply doesn't apply.
The deniability would be purely to stop the Cardies from putting a stop to it right now, not to prevent them from legally raising a stink about it afterwards.
- Location
- USA
It triggered them in Bajor, they responded after Lora. Could they not continue that and respond with renewed aggression in the GBZ at a time when we have no reserve of Starfleet ships and a limited reserve of member world ships for the GBZ?
Or if they use Yrillian pirates to raid into the SBZ and Sol sector while both Starfleet and the members in Sol are busy with the Licori?
Breaking up the relationship between the Gretarians and the Sydraxians simply isn't a very high foreign policy priority for me. As I said some pages back, as far as I'm concerned it's the equivalent of the Sydraxians having a few extra resource colonies.
However I will note, in case some folks have forgotten, that it's actually a three-cornered relationship. The Yrillians threaten the Gretarians, and the Sydraxians chase the Yrillians off in return for tribute.
However I will note, in case some folks have forgotten, that it's actually a three-cornered relationship. The Yrillians threaten the Gretarians, and the Sydraxians chase the Yrillians off in return for tribute.
With what ships? Remember, the Sydraxian navy is split between the factions right now, any weakness there means the other factions take advantage, and the factions we like are the ones who aren't going to be throwing ships at Gretaria. The Yrillians we are working on, and have been willing to cooperate with us (and with the Gretarians) in negotiating with the Sydraxians in the past, indicating relative sympathies for peace. Yrillian mercenaries is the only possibility I see, but they do not have strength to contest a planet.
I think Cardassian aggression in the GBZ is likely even without any Sydraxian affairs (they know well of our fight in the LBZ), but again, you look to domestic affairs to understand a government, not foreign ones. Domestically the Cardassians have an economic plan and their military plans will follow from that.
I don't see the point to the concerned citizens ploy without intention to stick to the Treaty. If they wanted to withdraw from the Pact, they would not have to negotiate with us in the least, and doing so could prompt further Cardassian action against them, something they wouldn't want in the case that they are withdrawing from the Cardassian sphere.
That's simply not true.
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[X][COUNCIL]Plan infra
[X] [FACTION] Approach the development faction about putting together a general recovery program for the aftereffects of the Licori war. Some of our economies will suffer from war mobiliziation, our allies the Ked Paddah and Gaeni have suffered even more greatly economically, and the Licori themselves will need help on both economic and sophontarian grounds. Regardless of the details of the eventual peace deal we will need to be ready for action across the board.
[X] [FACTION] Approach the development faction about putting together a general recovery program for the aftereffects of the Licori war. Some of our economies will suffer from war mobiliziation, our allies the Ked Paddah and Gaeni have suffered even more greatly economically, and the Licori themselves will need help on both economic and sophontarian grounds. Regardless of the details of the eventual peace deal we will need to be ready for action across the board.
I would have liked to do a deal with concrete mechanical benefits for once.... But I think this one will win because it really strokes the ego.
- Location
- Germany
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That is a great plan; what is Starfleets role in it?
Likely; and Starfleet will greatly benefit because ... they transport the politicians making the speeches?
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Nervos Belli
Don't think this means you've won!
- Location
- Murica
Our proposals don't necessarily require Starfleet action to take place. Look at the deal we cut with the mercantilists, which cost us nothing because the Council were willing to take over and do the work.
- Location
- USA
There is no guartee the navy will keep the same split which rose from firing on protesters and wars can make for strange bedfellows. Right now they have a purely internal crisis, we would be giving them an external crisis. In addition back during the Treaty of Celos negotiaons we were told that at that time the Yrillians would side with the Sydraxians and Cardassians in a war.
And attacking a planet is not the only concern, what happens of they hit our freighters and other civilians ships?
Also concerned citizens draws less attention then an overt delegation does. They likely went to a Yrillian world first which could have multiple reasons for them to visit. They could be trying to avoid a Cardassians crackdown until after negotiaons in which case they may look to us for help.
My biggest issue is there are too many possibilities and for the ones that go bad for us our hands are tied thanks to the Licori war.
- Location
- Germany
[X] [COUNCIL] Plan infra
[X] [FACTION] Approach the development faction about putting together a general recovery program for the aftereffects of the Licori war. Some of our economies will suffer from war mobiliziation, our allies the Ked Paddah and Gaeni have suffered even more greatly economically, and the Licori themselves will need help on both economic and sophontarian grounds. Regardless of the details of the eventual peace deal we will need to be ready for action across the board.
[X] [FACTION] Approach the development faction about putting together a general recovery program for the aftereffects of the Licori war. Some of our economies will suffer from war mobiliziation, our allies the Ked Paddah and Gaeni have suffered even more greatly economically, and the Licori themselves will need help on both economic and sophontarian grounds. Regardless of the details of the eventual peace deal we will need to be ready for action across the board.
- Location
- somewhere
If they do any of those things it won't be because the Cardassians give a rats ass about the Gretarians. They predictably cared a great deal about the Bajorans for a multitude of reasons, mostly strategic and/or ideological. As I argued last year the Gretarians should comparatively be a great deal less important to the Sydraxians than the Bajorans to the Cardassians, and for the Caradassians themselves they only matter at all in so far as events there could have an effect on the Sydraxians, but any effect the Cardassians would care about would be mediated by relatively unpredictable Sydraxian internal politics.
To give an example: The American public cares a great deal about Cuba, but it doesn't care about what happens to the French-backed government of some small West or Central African nation.