We just blew up or seriously damaged every ship in the Sydraxians' Gabriel squadron, or at least the squadron that was covering their base.

It is vanishingly unlikely that the Sydraxians were able to reinforce to the same level they were at before our first battle at Deva IX, if we catch them before those damaged Kalindraxes are repaired. Even if they did reinforce back to the same level, Ainsworth "only" inflicts another military defeat on them, and destroys several more of their ships. Eventually they're going to run out of expendable ships; they can't afford to burn up their entire navy in the Gabriel Expanse.

they can afford to burn up a lot of it though. The only enemy they have is the federation, and they probably know us well enough to know we won't be attacking them. They need enough ships to avoid looking tasty to pirates, or a liability in the inevitable war, but they could likely stand to lose a large portion of their navy. They have a smaller navy, but can afford to lose a larger fraction of it than us.
 
One thought I had is with a couple more members being green lighted if we can create an additional rear Admiral slot in the GBZ for a MWCO type officer and get Eaton there.
 
It is vanishingly unlikely that the Sydraxians were able to reinforce to the same level they were at before our first battle at Deva IX, if we catch them before those damaged Kalindraxes are repaired.

It is absolutely likely. I mean, you can say this, but I already told you they don't have our commitments and we have much more trouble reinforcing then they're likely to. I already dealt with the Yrillian situation too. I mean, you can just say this stuff if you want, but you don't really have a viable reason for it to be true. The Sydraxi actually have a much larger navy relative to their territorial needs and number of possibly aggressive neighbors.
 
they can afford to burn up a lot of it though. The only enemy they have is the federation, and they probably know us well enough to know we won't be attacking them. They need enough ships to avoid looking tasty to pirates, or a liability in the inevitable war, but they could likely stand to lose a large portion of their navy. They have a smaller navy, but can afford to lose a larger fraction of it than us.
They already lost a double digit percentage of their overall fleet, and inflicted minimal lasting damage on the enemy.

Unless they have a LOT more shipbuilding capacity than I think likely, they can only manufacture two or three ships a year. If they're losing ships at a rate of, say, five or six per year... Pretty soon their fleet gets ground down to levels where they can't defend their own space against even relatively minor threats, and maintain a presence in the Gabriel Expanse at the same time.

If they get hit a few more times like that, several bad things could happen.
1) They could become targets for other minor species (like the Honiani) whose armed forces haven't been worn down by attrition.
2) They start looking like weaklings to the Cardassians, who may abandon them rather than invest resources propping up a faction that can't fight effectively.
3) They could become targets for some hefty power we haven't even met yet, that lives on the opposite side of their space and is known to them, but not us (e.g. a Ferengi or Breen filibustering expedition)

Our explorations to coreward are still pretty limited; it is very much possible that the Sydraxians know of other threats to their security that we don't. Furthermore, the Yrillians are not their slaves, and are on the edge of a civil war- that's a risk that the Sydraxians really cannot afford to ignore entirely, because if said civil war breaks out, their own interests and influence over Yrillian spacers is endangered.

Can they replace the losses from this specific battle? Yes. Will they be able to do so repeatedly, over and over, every several months for the next few years? I'm not confident of that.
 
"Never turn your back on a Yrillian." - Unknown Sydraxian, 2317

"Okay Wow that was super racist." - Unknown Yrillian like, two seconds later.

In all fairness, the original version of the joke was very spot-on.

BBBBRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEENNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


*ekhm*

Given that Sydraxian admiral in charge of Deva has been replaced, I think it's pretty certain that Deva would be reinforced. However, it is also a question "had they reinforced enough?" Regardless of what we think of Battle of Deva result, we had a pretty clear indication that Sydraxians had seen it as a loss as well, and seem to be rather distraught at the prospect. While it is also true that Sydraxians have large (proportionally) navy, at the same time I doubt they would concentrate most of it at Deva; doing so would expose them strategically on pretty broad front. If Ainsworth wins the battle, even loosing most of her ships - but in process axes everything Sydraxians have - from their perspective there really isn't much they can do if Amaraki suddenly do a Space Knight Charge into middle of their territory. It's also not like we're their only concern; Yrillians are the sort of allies you trust as far as the effective firing range of your batteries.

While I have been critical of Starfleet's performance thus far, we've also reached the point where there isn't really much we can do without disrupting operations other than wait and hope Ainsworth pulls through. While I'm expecting much higher casualties than I originally anticipated, and independent Amaraki fleet may both come to Ainsworth's end at an unexpected juncture. Or avoid destruction in case of worst-case-senario and hold the fort while we scramble some sort of response.

TL;DR version: Alea iacta est :V
 
Out of curiosity, where are the Gorn & Tholians? Did they pick up sticks and leave the Quadrant or did the Federation retract its borders sometime in the past half-century?
 
Out of curiosity, where are the Gorn & Tholians? Did they pick up sticks and leave the Quadrant or did the Federation retract its borders sometime in the past half-century?
We suspect the Gorn are off on the other side of Klingon territory last I checked. Tholians... Tholians are both massively insular and avoid Class-M worlds, we really don't have an easy way to tell where they are I think.

(Also TBG is running on a somewhat smaller UFP than canon, with some justifications floating around but it's still probably best not to poke the Canon Territory thing too hard)
 
I believe Gorn are known to us in-character, and there has been an analysis omake for them, but they are in "out of sight, out of mind" position for time being.
 
I have trouble imagining the Amarki fleet hearing that an attack is going to be launched on Deva station and not wanting in on the action in one capacity or another.

What them not joining TF1 means is that they aren't under Ainsworth's direction for all the day-to-day scouting and probing. The boring-but-necessary stuff. They'll damn well show up the big fight. How could they not?
 
So looking at members if we want to yellow light someone I would suggest Rigellans and Tellarites. Both could spare an Explorer and the Megatortoise has 9 shield and 8 hull to go with 6 combat, though if they send that I would recommend a tortoise as escort as their escort class ships are fragile. Tellarites have an excelsior and Connie b and could send one of them with two Miranda-A as escorts
 
I have trouble imagining the Amarki fleet hearing that an attack is going to be launched on Deva station and not wanting in on the action in one capacity or another.

What them not joining TF1 means is that they aren't under Ainsworth's direction for all the day-to-day scouting and probing. The boring-but-necessary stuff. They'll damn well show up the big fight. How could they not?
I guess we'll see.

If they don't Ainsworth's days are numbered.
 
I believe Gorn are known to us in-character, and there has been an analysis omake for them, but they are in "out of sight, out of mind" position for time being.

They're not. Here's a list of everyone we know.

Current Federation Full Members:
Humans
Vulcans
Andorians
Tellarites
Amarki
Betazoids
Caitians
Rigellians
Indorians - BTW @OneirosTheWriter this needs to be updated on the status page.
Apiata - This too.

Currently Known Other Possible Members:
Bajorians 109/100 - Affiliate Status impossible [Cardassian Patronage]
Yrillians 164/100 - Affiliate Membership Internally + Externally Obstructed, but lines of dialogue opened. Strong pro-Cardassian influences
Licori 125/100 - Affiliate Status impossible [Conflict w/ Ked Peddah, Mentats]
Gretarians 75/100 - Known to be under the thumb of Sydraxians
Yan-Ros 100/100 - Temporary hold on Affiliate status while FDS queries them about the assassin incidents
Sotaw 35/100
Ked Paddah 35/100

Current Federation Affiliates:
Caldonians 484/500
Orions 439/500
Risa 404/500
Gaeni 386/500
Qloathi 347/500
Seyek 237/500
Kadeshi 249/500
Honiani 134/500
* Updated 2313.Q2.1


The Big, The Bad, & The Ugly:
Cardassians
Sydraxians
Romulans
Klingons

There's also a few Cardassian affliliates there we haven't met, but know about.
 
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I haven't seen them noted anywhere, ever, and they're not on the maps or anything.

They haven't shown up recently, and we don't know where they live. The Federation has more pressing concerns than tracking them down. They may pop up as a threat after the confrontation with Cardassia, or if we're really unlucky, during it. We the players have enough problems dealing with the situation we know to worry about someone who doesn't seem to be doing anything.
 
So I am going to make some additions to the ship sheets I maintain and I am wanting to know what people want included. For Starfleet and Members and Affiliates I am thinking about either adding in a civilian ship and shipyard berth to the sheet or make a new one to track that. For non affiliates I plan to add a date to show when we last received a full intel report on a powers fleet, also adding a row to add any approximates we may have on their overall stats (we received an approximate total combat of the Cardassians and their clients not too long ago).

If there is anything else you would like to see tracked let me know, current plans are to update them Sunday when I have the most free time.
 
Keep in mind here, I'm referring to in game knowledge.

If you want to be proactive with out of game knowledge, we should have found the damn DS9 wormhole and locked it up or figured a way to collapse it. But using out of game knowledge is beyond general info is kind of a no-no and is becoming more and more useless as the game progresses.
 
So looking at members if we want to yellow light someone I would suggest Rigellans and Tellarites. Both could spare an Explorer and the Megatortoise has 9 shield and 8 hull to go with 6 combat, though if they send that I would recommend a tortoise as escort as their escort class ships are fragile. Tellarites have an excelsior and Connie b and could send one of them with two Miranda-A as escorts

Hm, looking at our members:

The Caitians are the strongest remaining uncommitted member with 20 ships containing 65C, 89L, 28H. I have to wonder if they might not want to get particularly involved in the GBZ though, given how far away they are from the zone and the Orion situation. Also the Dawiar are right there on their border.

The Rigellians are next with 16 ships containing 48C, 57L, 47H. Like you said they are a good choice for another member to activate. Of course, there might be some reluctance on their part for the same reason as the Caitians, they are pretty far away from the GBZ. Plus, have plenty of open space to expand into nearby.

Interestingly, the Indorians might be a very good choice because they have 15 ships containing 50C, 39L, 25H. Looking at nix's maps, they actually seem like they might be pretty open to helping given they're butting up against several other groups, and they are closer than most other choices.

Next, the Tellarites have 11 ships containing 37C, 30L, 23H. Given their limited ship numbers, if we activate them we probably want to activate another member that they can combine forces with, or we want to only yellow light them so that they are working alongside starfleet ships.

Vulcan is the last member we can really activate for reasons I'll get to in a moment, anyway they have 12 ships containing 34C, 26L, 19H. They are definitely our weakest choice however, because assuming your sheet is right one of those escorts is an Oberth, two are ancient Soyuz class ships, and three of the rest are plain Miranda's.

Of our remaining members, United Earth and Andor are currently heavily committed to the Orion situation and thus rather unlikely to give much if any help. The Betazoids on the other hand both do not have much in the way of forces and are pretty much as far away as possible from the GBZ. It also seems likely that their forces are at least somewhat committed to making up for United Earth's comparative lack of presence in Sol sector. (United Earth only has an Excelsior, Constitution-B, and Constellation left, I think?, which is a lot less than everybody else expect the Andorians)

Edit: Corrected Indorian total combat value.
 
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Hm, looking at our members:

The Caitians are the strongest remaining uncommitted member with 20 ships containing 65C, 89L, 28H. I have to wonder if they might not want to get particularly involved in the GBZ though, given how far away they are from the zone and the Orion situation.

The Rigellians are next with 16 ships containing 48C, 57L, 47H. Like you said they are a good choice for another member to activate. Of course, there might be some reluctance on their part for the same reason as the Caitians, they are pretty far away from the GBZ. Plus, have plenty of open space to expand into nearby.

Interestingly, the Indorians might be a very good choice because they have 15 ships containing 60C, 39L, 25H. Looking at nix's maps, they actually seem like they might be pretty open to helping given they're butting up against several other groups, and they are closer than most other choices.

Next, the Tellarites have 11 ships containing 37C, 30L, 23H. Given their limited ship numbers, if we activate them we probably want to activate another member that they can combine forces with, or we want to only yellow light them so that they are working alongside starfleet ships.

Vulcan is the last member we can really activate for reasons I'll get to in a moment, anyway they have 12 ships containing 34C, 26L, 19H. They are definitely our weakest choice however, because assuming you sheet is right one of those escorts is an Oberth, two are ancient Soyuz class ships, and three of the rest are plain Miranda's.

Of our remaining members, United Earth and Andor are currently heavily committed to the Orion situation and thus rather unlikely to give much if any help. The Betazoids on the other hand both do not have much in the way of forces and are pretty much as far away as possible from the GBZ. It also seems likely that their forces are at least somewhat committed to making up for United Earth's comparative lack of presence in Sol sector. (United Earth only has an Excelsior, Constitution-B, and Constellation left, I think?, which is a lot less than everybody else expect the Andorians)
Caitians though are watching the Dawiar and Lecarre so I don't want to weaken them. Indorians have Bajor and the Cardassians to worry about and help secure that flank. Rigellians and Tellarites have less of an issue, and dispatching a few ships to reinforce either Starfleet, Apiata or Amarkia tasks forces would be helpful. For Rigellians I figure in exchange for their Megatortise and one or two of their cruisers we could offer them any mining sites we find near their space.

And the spreadsheet should be up to date as of last quarter.
 
Caitians though are watching the Dawiar and Lecarre so I don't want to weaken them. Indorians have Bajor and the Cardassians to worry about and help secure that flank. Rigellians and Tellarites have less of an issue, and dispatching a few ships to reinforce either Starfleet, Apiata or Amarkia tasks forces would be helpful. For Rigellians I figure in exchange for their Megatortise and one or two of their cruisers we could offer them any mining sites we find near their space.

And the spreadsheet should be up to date as of last quarter.

Rigel is basically a border zone though, with all the unclaimed territory around. I don't know how realistic it is to expect them to send ships to the other side of the Federation.
 
If the Amarkians don't join showing - Ainsworths low diplomacy does cost us joint operations - her days will be numbered in the position she currently holds.

I want to say, I think it's a little unfair the way everyone has been judging Ainsworth for this. Remember, we voted to have the Amarkians act independently. That was the choice of the voters.

We gave them the green light, knowing that it meant they would have an independent command structure, because it meant they would send more ships. Ainsworth tried to talk them into joining her Task Force anyway, even though they has assembled their fleet under the explicit promise they wouldn't have to do so. Well no shit they said no. How is that surprising?

I'm not sure even a Medium diplomacy would have been enough to sell that. It might have taken a High Diplomacy character to succeed. But regardless, if we thought it was that important to have the Amarkians join the Task Force we had the means to force them to do so. Ainsworth was trying to sweet talk them into subordinating themselves anyway, and it's really unsurprising that she failed. Few people could have succeeded.
 
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