This is complete speculation and spinning hard for your choice.
I see I hit a nerve.

This is not speculation. This is entirely reasonable extrapolation from the facts:
  1. Things are incredibly, highly tense and already on the brink of war -- Fact
  2. Ainsworth is going to push hard, and she's going to push aggressive. -- Fact
    1. This is highly likely to piss off the Cardassians and thier allies -- Reasonable inference
  3. Ainsworth has low diplomacy to sooth tensions -- Fact
  4. Thiur is also highly aggressive. -- Fact
  5. Thiur has bad blood with the Sydraxians -- Fact
    1. This may have cooled down to more general Starfleet animosity from the Sydraxians - Possible
    2. Also possible: they'll use it as an excuse to start shit when they don't like what Ainsworth is doing anyways.
Ainsworth herself is running close to war, putting a potential liability like Thiur in there is a risky move. Meanwhile, on the escort issue, you're operating off "well maybe he'll intercept enemies before they get there" despite the fact the position seems tailor made for a low or medium aggressiveness commander.

In fact, I'm not even totally sure they know who the captain of the Miracht was during the sacred grove incident. Probably they do since the Miracht was there to do some diplomacy, but the Sydraxians have never sent any messages asking about Thuir by name. This notion of personal enmity towards Thuir is something at, as far as I can see, comes up solely whenever Thuir is proposed for a position near the Sydraxians and has never been backed up by even an omake, much less any canon game post.

[...]

The Captain's Log says that Thuir was asleep in his cabin when the incident went down.
I'm pretty sure they do know who he is -- after waking up Thuir beamed down and was specifically noted as almost being killed by a phaser blast.
First Officer's Log, USS Miracht, Stardate 22340.0

Captain Thuir has been gravely injured. A phaser blast very nearly killed him. If we'd gotten him to sickbay even a minute later...


That all being said since the thread seems to be going at least for Ainsworth, I think the AUX choice becomes more clear.

[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral John Harriman
[X][TF1] Commodore Jessica Rivers
[X][TF2] Commodore Revak
[X][AUX] Commodore Alejandro Suarez - Expanded Field Repair capacity
 
Okay what are the votes like?

I'm going for Rachel, but I think Thuir is just.. excessive, given the Syndraxian thing. That's prob worth, like, negative points to his diplomacy score. He can do work elsewhere.
 
All of their known affiliates at the time were clearly listed. Both the Bajorans and the Yrillians were listed as suspected affiliates. Given the fact that we know the Yrillians are not full affiliates, it is reasonable to say the Bajorans were not as well. If you find the Captain's log in which we met them (2309Q1) the Bajorans even acknowledge that what the Cardassians said about us was lies, and were willing to receive our diplomats. Ergo, I would still like to see stronger evidence from you or a statement from Oneiros that will indicate that us applying pushes to the Yrillians will have an effect while we have 139/100 relations. Hell, I'd be concerned that overt diplomatic work like that is going to risk war more strongly than letting the FDS do its work.

Well, we know that Yrillians don't count for purposes of us not being able to talk to Cardassian clients and is not a pretext for war.

Given that our diplomatic push on the Bajorans resulted in the Cardassians panicking and invading, that seems evidence that diplomatic pushes do have an effect even if affiliate membership is blocked. For one thing, I notice that we've been getting a "continuing push" on the Yrillians despite their affiliate status being blocked (but not impossible).
 
Vote Tally : Sci-Fi - To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest) | Page 1208 | Sufficient Velocity
##### NetTally 1.7.6

Task: AUX

[X][AUX] Commodore Alejandro Suarez - Expanded Field Repair capacity
No. of Votes: 16
lbmaian
aeqnai
Alastor Mobius Toth
Briefvoice
Gingganz
Iron Wolf
Joshrand1982
Jrin
Night
Nix
NullVoid
Questara
Random Member
Simon_Jester
SuperSonicSound
UberJJK

[X][AUX] Commodore Charlotte O'Dea - 1 Free GBZ Intel Report
No. of Votes: 8
Happerry
Aeondrac
aledeth
Erandil
Mr Tebbs
pheonix89
SynchronizedWritersBlock
Void Stalker

[X][AUX] Commodore Alejandro Suarez
No. of Votes: 7
Kaze
Ato
Blackshard
Chaos Blade
Derek58
JesseJ
Muer'ci

[X][AUX] Captain Maeth th'Irnyar - 10% Discount off required Logistics level
No. of Votes: 5
Artemis1992
MS-21H 'Hawke'
Narutosramen
Nervos Belli
Night_stalker

[X][AUX] Captain Maeth th'Irnyar
No. of Votes: 2
NHO
Japanime

[X][AUX] Captain Maeth th'Irnya
No. of Votes: 1
Vehrec

[X][AUX] Commodore Suarez
No. of Votes: 1
AlphaDelta


——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: FLEET

[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral Rachel Ainsworth
No. of Votes: 25
lbmaian
aeqnai
Alastor Mobius Toth
Artemis1992
Ato
Blackshard
Briefvoice
Chaos Blade
Derek58
JesseJ
Joshrand1982
Jrin
Mr Tebbs
MS-21H 'Hawke'
Narutosramen
Nervos Belli
Night_stalker
NullVoid
pheonix89
Questara
Random Member
remulian
Simon_Jester
SuperSonicSound
UberJJK

[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral John Harriman
No. of Votes: 11
NHO
Erandil
Gingganz
Iron Wolf
Japanime
Kaze
Muer'ci
Night
SynchronizedWritersBlock
Vehrec
Void Stalker

[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral Waafrinch Iorin Skef
No. of Votes: 3
Happerry
Aeondrac
aledeth

[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral Rachael Ainsworth
No. of Votes: 1
AlphaDelta


——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: TF1

[X][TF1] Commodore Jessica Rivers
No. of Votes: 30
Happerry
Aeondrac
aeqnai
Alastor Mobius Toth
aledeth
AlphaDelta
Artemis1992
Ato
Briefvoice
Chaos Blade
Derek58
Gingganz
Iron Wolf
Japanime
JesseJ
Joshrand1982
Jrin
Mr Tebbs
MS-21H 'Hawke'
Muer'ci
Nervos Belli
NHO
Night
Night_stalker
Questara
Random Member
Simon_Jester
SuperSonicSound
UberJJK
Void Stalker

[X][TF1] Commodore Thraan th'Marlaas
No. of Votes: 6
lbmaian
Blackshard
Erandil
Narutosramen
NullVoid
Vehrec

[X][TF1] Commodore Michel Thuir
No. of Votes: 2
Kaze
pheonix89


——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: TF2

[X][TF2] Commodore Revak
No. of Votes: 16
Happerry
Aeondrac
aledeth
AlphaDelta
Ato
Gingganz
Iron Wolf
JesseJ
Joshrand1982
Jrin
lbmaian
Narutosramen
NHO
pheonix89
Vehrec
Void Stalker

[X][TF2] Commodore Michel Thuir
No. of Votes: 14
Artemis1992
aeqnai
Blackshard
Briefvoice
Chaos Blade
Derek58
Japanime
MS-21H 'Hawke'
Nervos Belli
Night_stalker
Questara
Random Member
SuperSonicSound
UberJJK

[X][TF2] Commodore Constance Lecras
No. of Votes: 6
Simon_Jester
Alastor Mobius Toth
Erandil
Night
Nix
NullVoid

[X][TF2] Commodore Jessica Rivers
No. of Votes: 1
Kaze

[X][TF2] Commodore Commodore Revak
No. of Votes: 1
Muer'ci

Total No. of Voters: 41
 
Reasonable* extrapolation from the facts is pretty much the definition of speculating. :p

*At least in the viewpoint of the person doing the speculating!
I mean, I'm drawing directly from the stats and the current political situation to underpin my opinion, so.

Ultimately Thiur or not to Thiur is about risk. It's entirely possible the Sydraxians don't hate him and he'll be fine. However, given how the other commanders are more than adequate for the role, I am not sure why we'd take this risk aside from the fact Thiur is a pretty cool guy, which seems to be basically your argument plus some speculation about how his high aggressiveness may or may not be better than Revak's.
 
Well, we know that Yrillians don't count for purposes of us not being able to talk to Cardassian clients and is not a pretext for war.

Given that our diplomatic push on the Bajorans resulted in the Cardassians panicking and invading, that seems evidence that diplomatic pushes do have an effect even if affiliate membership is blocked. For one thing, I notice that we've been getting a "continuing push" on the Yrillians despite their affiliate status being blocked (but not impossible).

I would expect that diplomatic pushes have an effect on the Cardassians in that they see us wooing someone. Thus I would expect that possibility that a push might get the Cardassians to step up opposition (or start coups). That said, my previous post is a quote from Oneiros that says that deeper relations with the Bajorans are a narrative issue, not a push issue. My main contention here is that we have a mechanic for diplomacy that allows us to push relationships, but contentious affiliates require other organs of the state (the Council or the FDS) to resolve them, since this isn't an Empire quest. Now, if Oneiros wants to do what happened with the Apiata and the Sydraxians and give us the opportunity to pay X PP in the Snakepit to convene a special session to get done what we want done, that's one thing. But the push mechanic isn't it.

As for the treaty, while that's what's on paper, I would expect the Cardassians to not give a shit about the treaty and that they will come after us if they believe doing so will prevent us from gaining the upper hand. Given that the Yrillians apparently have a lot of C to go around, it wouldn't surprise me that us managing to start a process that would end in the Yrillians either becoming neutrals in a potential war or even supporting us would result in the Cardassians trying to start a civil war. They'd love a proxy war so we would have to fight the Syndicate and part of the Yrillians at the same time.
 
Combined some votes in the tally to make it more clear who's winning.
Vote Tally : Sci-Fi - To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest) | Page 1208 | Sufficient Velocity
##### NetTally 1.7.3.2

Task: AUX

[X][AUX] Commodore Alejandro Suarez
No. of Votes: 24

[X][AUX] Commodore Charlotte O'Dea - 1 Free GBZ Intel Report
No. of Votes: 8

[X][AUX] Captain Maeth th'Irnyar
No. of Votes: 8


——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: FLEET

[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral Rachel Ainsworth
No. of Votes: 27

[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral John Harriman
No. of Votes: 11

[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral Waafrinch Iorin Skef
No. of Votes: 3


——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: TF1

[X][TF1] Commodore Jessica Rivers
No. of Votes: 30

[X][TF1] Commodore Thraan th'Marlaas
No. of Votes: 6

[X][TF1] Commodore Michel Thuir
No. of Votes: 2


——————————————————————————————————————————————
Task: TF2

[X][TF2] Commodore Revak
No. of Votes: 17

[X][TF2] Commodore Michel Thuir
No. of Votes: 14

[X][TF2] Commodore Constance Lecras
No. of Votes: 6

[X][TF2] Commodore Jessica Rivers
No. of Votes: 1

Total No. of Voters: 42
 
If the Lecras-voter did some strategic changes they could turn it either way.
Christ, this thread is one step away from running phone campaigns to get out the vote.

"Hello, my name is Iron Wolf and I'm calling on behalf of Commodore Revak. He's the TF2 Candidate and in such a close race every vote counts, so I am calling today to encourage you to get to the thread and post as soon as possible. If you need help posting your vote to the thread, or have any further questions about Commodore Revak, please call us back at 1-800-BIG-VULKN."
 
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Christ, this thread is one step away from running phone campaigns to get out the vote.

"Hello, my name is Iron Wolf and I'm calling on behalf of Commodore Revak. He's the TF2 Candidate and in such a close race every vote counts, so I am calling today to encourage you to get to the thread and post as soon as possible. If you need help posting your vote to the thread, or have any further questions about Commodore Revak, please call us back at 1-800-BIG-VULKN."

Revak would be the one running a campaign, wouldn't he.
 
Now I'm imagining Revak appearing in cheesy recruitment videos for Starfleet. Then he branches out into advertising.

"I'm Commodore Revak, and this is my favorite store on Starbase 1."
 
[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral Rachel Ainsworth
[X][TF1] Commodore Jessica Rivers
[X][TF2] Commodore Revak
[X][AUX] Commodore Alejandro Suarez - Expanded Field Repair capacity

Can someone remind me who Revak even is?

He's the political Vulcan we keep passing up on for assigning him positions who somehow keeps managing to get promoted in spite of that. Honestly now that he's no longer an Explorer Corps candidate on the strength of his political connections I'm fine with him, we're playing Sousa after all.
 
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Christ, this thread is one step away from running phone campaigns to get out the vote.

"Hello, my name is Iron Wolf and I'm calling on behalf of Commodore Revak. He's the TF2 Candidate and in such a close race every vote counts, so I am calling today to encourage you to get to the thread and post as soon as possible. If you need help posting your vote to the thread, or have any further questions about Commodore Revak, please call us back at 1-800-BIG-VULKN."

Well, you got my vote.
 
[X][FLEET] Rear Admiral Rachel Ainsworth
[X][TF1] Commodore Jessica Rivers
[X][TF2] Commodore Michel Thuir
[X][AUX] Commodore Alejandro Suarez - Expanded Field Repair capacity
 
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