To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)
- Thread starter OneirosTheWriter
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It very clearly means that conditional on a guarantee still being issued anyway the chance of a war is extremely high, but otherwise the chances of avoiding a war with the Cardassians breaking out at this particular point are increased. Since a Cardassian guarantee is far from a certainty (I don't expect Celos to be under Syndicate control long enough), the probability of it happening is apparently further reduced by the option (wording is a bit ambiguous on that) and would very likely lead to war no matter what it probably increases the overall chance of peace.
It's probably more like:
No SoE: 40% chance of guarantee, IF guarantee 90% chance of war, if no guarantee 10% chance of war.
Conditional SoE: 30% chance of guarantee, IF guarantee 99% chance of war, if no guarantee 5% chance of war.
I don't consider peace after a Cardassian guarantee particularly desirable because it almost certainly implies the Federation backing down and losing the trust of most affiliates.
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Night
Widow Null
- Location
- Hoff
You're not even disputing the actual point anymore. Yes, it has a martial edge; so did the Biophage. However, that's far from the only thing it's going to be doing. As has been said before, one of the first things we would do with State of Emergency due to a war with or possible war with Cardassia would be to mobilize an external diplomatic team and try to secure the Dawiar's neutrality. In this case, we might also manage to secure the neutrality of the Syndraxi if we're quick about it.
- Location
- Patriarchova
Nah. Open, upside-down V shape.
I gave the Kadeshi mothership the vulcan-esque ring nacelle, but in retrospect that doesn't make much sense. If they bought their warp engines from the sotaw as per my omake, they should look similar.
And you're right; the Qloathi ships WOULD look nice with the ring design.
I will switch them.
- Location
- Infraspace
I meant, considering the reactions of the Cardassians isn't necessary. If we're subtle with it, no-one who doesn't need to know finds out until we actually mobilise them.
You could very well be correct about the STOP/GO. That was long before I joined!
Might have to try my hand at a few of your designs, if you don't object. Got any front views?
Edit: strikethrough due to above post.
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- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
I'm pretty sure Federation politics won't work that way, if nothing else because not all the Councillors are going to be on board with our secretly assuming dictatorial powers.
At which point, whether the conditional state of emergency is a good deal depends entirely on the exact probability estimates we plug into our equations.
I see your point, but personally, I'm trying to buy insurance against military disaster here.
I'd rather take the short-term consequences of the diplomatic leaders in Paris being distracted* than the risk of the consequences if the Cardassians decide to attack and our fleet is divided in that sector.
NOT concentrating our forces near Indorion space strikes me as a very dangerous gamble, because I'm sure the Cardassians have noticed our vulnerability to defeat in detail. If they have the power to appear out of nowhere and hit one of our fleets with zero warning time, they'll want to do it to a portion of our fleet, rather than the whole thing. Conversely, we want to concentrate our forces before the hammer falls, so that we have the best chance of stopping it.
Meanwhile, if the Indorion fleet is so weak that it is likely to get steamrolled even when united with our own CBZ fleet under the protection of a modern starbase, then there is literally nothing we can do to prevent Indorion space from being overrun by the Cardassians. I get that their technology is behind the curve, but if the Dawiar were able to put up a fight against a modern opponent, the Indorions should be able to make a decent accounting of themselves too.
________________________________
*(it can't even be the same diplomats working Sydraxia who'd be talking to the Indorions, because they'd have to physically cross all of Federation space in a matter of a week or two to do it).
- Location
- USA
My thoughts on voting options in general:
I believe it is important we decide who we want to be as our actions now will impact how others view us as. Options need to be weighed on several factors
1. How will they help with the current issue/crisis at hand? Do they make it easier, allow different paths to success
2. How will the general public view our actions? This needs to be considered for Federation members, affiliates, neutrals, other great powers and their clients. Most importantly is that we as the head of Starfleet will have information and an understanding of the situation beyond what normal people have. To expand on this more, the average member of the public blames the Syndicate for the attempt on the Councilors at the Amarkia ratification, only select members of Federation and Member Governments know that the Cardassians helped organize and execute the attack. So we have to consider things like that which can alter the viewpoint people have.
3. What are our long term and short term objectives? This ties into the first point, but what do we want to happen long term and what do we want to happen short term and how will our decisions impact this. One thing is depending on our ROE for the SBZ that will impact future opportunities and diplomacy with the Sydraxians. Another example back in Grey October we chose not to engage though we could have viewed it as an invasion and done so, by refusing to fire the first shot we gave the Cardassians strategic imitative but in the end managed to come out ahead by sticking to our ideals and causing them to have egg on their face.
4. Related to 3, what are the objectives of the other races? Kind of Sun Tzu here, but know your enemy, know what they want and what they are willing to do to get there. A big part here is trying to see how that impacts their time table and where they draw the line.
5. Steps are not binary! Often times plans should have numerous cutouts, allowing you to de-escalate if the situation changes as opposed to getting locked into one path. This is important for both us and other parties. Going back to Grey October, both us and the Cardassians had cutouts in our plan that would allow us to back out of committing to a full scale war. If you notice they made sure to stick to neutral space, avoiding passing through areas claimed by us or by our affiliates, they could have chosen otherwise and it would have increased their chance of catching the Kadak-Tor due to needing to travel through less space but also would have racheted things up. Likewise we responded but allowed ways to keep from being forced into a conflict. In the end neither side was looking for a conflict and by use of cutouts and avoiding too many provocations we both were able to pull back with only minor repercussions on there side and that was mainly in neutral opinion along with the opinion of their clients.
Some thoughts on this case in particular:
A. The Cardassians operate on a view of strength, and appearance of strength, because of that they will also feel the need to respond to threat displays as not to be seen as backing down both by their people and other members of their government and neutrals and their clients. That needs to be considered before taking potentially provocative actions. This does not mean we should not but we need to consider if it is worth the response the Cardassians will feel compelled to make or if another form of warning needs to be applied to them.
B. Related to the general points above, upper level knowledge vs general knowledge. We know a lot of things the common person does not. We know the Cardassians attempted to assassinate our Councilors at the Amarkia ratification but the average person only thinks the Syndies tried to. We know the Cardassians have made overtures to guarantee the Celos Syndicate government, the average person does not. We know the Cardassians had dealings with the Syndicate including getting that cloaking device for the Kadak-Tor, the average person does not.
C. In terms of raw numbers the Federation is stronger than Cardassia and its clients unless they have a lot we do not know about, but we can't marshall that strength in full without leaving areas vulnerable. And there are other potential fronts that need to be watched, pirates in general and the Syndicate internally. Basically even in a full scale war we have commitments that tie down parts of our fleet and member fleets that cannot be ignored.
I believe it is important we decide who we want to be as our actions now will impact how others view us as. Options need to be weighed on several factors
1. How will they help with the current issue/crisis at hand? Do they make it easier, allow different paths to success
2. How will the general public view our actions? This needs to be considered for Federation members, affiliates, neutrals, other great powers and their clients. Most importantly is that we as the head of Starfleet will have information and an understanding of the situation beyond what normal people have. To expand on this more, the average member of the public blames the Syndicate for the attempt on the Councilors at the Amarkia ratification, only select members of Federation and Member Governments know that the Cardassians helped organize and execute the attack. So we have to consider things like that which can alter the viewpoint people have.
3. What are our long term and short term objectives? This ties into the first point, but what do we want to happen long term and what do we want to happen short term and how will our decisions impact this. One thing is depending on our ROE for the SBZ that will impact future opportunities and diplomacy with the Sydraxians. Another example back in Grey October we chose not to engage though we could have viewed it as an invasion and done so, by refusing to fire the first shot we gave the Cardassians strategic imitative but in the end managed to come out ahead by sticking to our ideals and causing them to have egg on their face.
4. Related to 3, what are the objectives of the other races? Kind of Sun Tzu here, but know your enemy, know what they want and what they are willing to do to get there. A big part here is trying to see how that impacts their time table and where they draw the line.
5. Steps are not binary! Often times plans should have numerous cutouts, allowing you to de-escalate if the situation changes as opposed to getting locked into one path. This is important for both us and other parties. Going back to Grey October, both us and the Cardassians had cutouts in our plan that would allow us to back out of committing to a full scale war. If you notice they made sure to stick to neutral space, avoiding passing through areas claimed by us or by our affiliates, they could have chosen otherwise and it would have increased their chance of catching the Kadak-Tor due to needing to travel through less space but also would have racheted things up. Likewise we responded but allowed ways to keep from being forced into a conflict. In the end neither side was looking for a conflict and by use of cutouts and avoiding too many provocations we both were able to pull back with only minor repercussions on there side and that was mainly in neutral opinion along with the opinion of their clients.
Some thoughts on this case in particular:
A. The Cardassians operate on a view of strength, and appearance of strength, because of that they will also feel the need to respond to threat displays as not to be seen as backing down both by their people and other members of their government and neutrals and their clients. That needs to be considered before taking potentially provocative actions. This does not mean we should not but we need to consider if it is worth the response the Cardassians will feel compelled to make or if another form of warning needs to be applied to them.
B. Related to the general points above, upper level knowledge vs general knowledge. We know a lot of things the common person does not. We know the Cardassians attempted to assassinate our Councilors at the Amarkia ratification but the average person only thinks the Syndies tried to. We know the Cardassians have made overtures to guarantee the Celos Syndicate government, the average person does not. We know the Cardassians had dealings with the Syndicate including getting that cloaking device for the Kadak-Tor, the average person does not.
C. In terms of raw numbers the Federation is stronger than Cardassia and its clients unless they have a lot we do not know about, but we can't marshall that strength in full without leaving areas vulnerable. And there are other potential fronts that need to be watched, pirates in general and the Syndicate internally. Basically even in a full scale war we have commitments that tie down parts of our fleet and member fleets that cannot be ignored.
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- Infraspace
That's... a very good point actually. Hmm. Perhaps with some Council oversight?
Okay, I haven't really thought this through. Let me consider it further.
Edit: actually, any further and it'll probably get too complicated. Nevermind...
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- Location
- Central Standard Time
And that's part of the issue.
Some of the people voting for the Dovak option want to declare a SOE because it'll intimidate them.
The SOE by itself will not intimidate them. However, us maneuvering forces in will. We can maneuver forces now, under High Alert. And because Bandwagon, the vote is unstoppable.
Not all middle options are the best of both worlds.
This.
We cannot afford to lose the Indorion fleet. As long as they survive, we can equip them with modern Photorp warheads and have them support us in battle. But if they are defeated separately, which is likely considering how combat works, our fleet will fall too.
I'm tempted to request a temporary threadban at this point, since this argument cannot be won. The lurkers have bandwagon'd.
A state of emergency will not affect Cardassian planning because they have little way to find out, and they do not care. Sure, the Romulans might, but we're fighting the Cardassians.
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- Infraspace
That was the point I was trying to make. One of the objections was that the Cardassians would see SoE as a provocation, and I was saying that it really wasn't.
At this point, though, I think we* probably need further clarification on the middle option, as we* seem to have divergent interpretations.
* as a whole
Edit: spelling
Actually, I believe the fact that the Celos Syndicate government is calling for Cardassian intervention is now common knowledge.
Details of communications are still secret, but it would be a public guarantee so Celos-Syndicate has to be publicly calling for Cardassian assistance.
There's 44 voters according to the latest tally, and 23 people were browsing the forum when I checked a minute ago. That's a lot! I don't think it's a case of a bandwagon effect. I think both sides got their arguments out quickly, the arguments were pretty clear, and after consideration people made their decision. I like to think most of them put at least a few minutes thought into it and read posts from both sides.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
All I know is, this is my predicted worst case scenario based on the votes we're seeing:
1) The anti-Syndicate campaign on Celos goes rather well, because we've got a strong consensus favoring a well-coordinated naval strategy there.
2) BUT the Celosians don't fold immediately. Seriously, knocking out all Syndicate forces on Celos would have taken us several months anyway, it won't be easier now.
3a) Cardassians decide, as per the reasoning given by several people who are voting for the conditional guarantee, that they should fight us now rather than waiting for us to become even stronger while neutralizing some of their allies.
3b) Cardassians decide, as per the reasoning given by several people who are voting for the conditional guarantee, that their best bet is a surprise attack, which they can readily carry out, as per the reasoning given by at least some of the people supporting the conditional guarantee.
4a) Cardassians decide, sensibly, that if they are going to launch a surprise attack, they should not alert us in advance of their intent to do so.
4b) Cardassians decide, not being complete fools, that they will issue their broadcasts proclaiming "solidarity with the Celos Republic" simultaneously with their surprise offensive, exactly as they did when supporting revolutionaries on Bajor.
4c) Having settled on this strategy, the Cardassians note a region of our space where overall Federation forces are divided, the local forces are relatively less strong, and where a quick coup de main could secure them valuable forward bases from which to defend a new, recently obtained sector of their space...
5a) The Cardassians, striking from the vicinity of Bajor, attack Lapycorias with minimal warning, in overwhelming strength (say, Combat 50).
5b) At the same time, the Cardassians guarantee the independence of the Celes Republic.
5c) We derive no tactical benefit from state of emergency preparations, because the orders to make the preparations didn't even reach Lapycorias until shortly before the Cardassian attack- or even afterwards.
5d) Our CBZ squadron (Combat 20) is forced to either beat a hasty retreat (abandoning the starbase to be captured by the Cardassians) or to make a heroic and doomed last stand.
6a) The Cardassians now have the option of holding a secure position around the captured starbase... OR
6b) If they feel they have enough force (and they well might), they can continue into Indorion space, inflicting heavy losses on the Indorion fleet, especially if the CBZ squadron was badly hammered a battle at Lapycorias.
7a) Either they win altogether (and our front line against the Cardassians has a gaping hole in it), permitting Cardassian raiders a much safer line of approach deeper into our space)...
7b) Or they at the very least manage to inflict severe losses, forcing us to commit 'penny packet' reinforcements if and when they can make it to the scene from bases on the far side of Federation space, potentially opening us up to even more losses.
_____________________________
I am really, really hoping this sequence of events does not unfold. However, if it doesn't unfold, it means one of three things:
One, a significant number of people who disagree with me made a mistake about some important factor in the situation...
Two, I am completely missing some obvious reason why the Cardassians should not do as I describe even given their warlike, hostile, and generally underhanded behavior...
Or three, the Cardassians get handed an idiot ball.
I would appreciate reassurance on this issue, if anyone can explain why my fears are misguided.
1) The anti-Syndicate campaign on Celos goes rather well, because we've got a strong consensus favoring a well-coordinated naval strategy there.
2) BUT the Celosians don't fold immediately. Seriously, knocking out all Syndicate forces on Celos would have taken us several months anyway, it won't be easier now.
3a) Cardassians decide, as per the reasoning given by several people who are voting for the conditional guarantee, that they should fight us now rather than waiting for us to become even stronger while neutralizing some of their allies.
3b) Cardassians decide, as per the reasoning given by several people who are voting for the conditional guarantee, that their best bet is a surprise attack, which they can readily carry out, as per the reasoning given by at least some of the people supporting the conditional guarantee.
4a) Cardassians decide, sensibly, that if they are going to launch a surprise attack, they should not alert us in advance of their intent to do so.
4b) Cardassians decide, not being complete fools, that they will issue their broadcasts proclaiming "solidarity with the Celos Republic" simultaneously with their surprise offensive, exactly as they did when supporting revolutionaries on Bajor.
4c) Having settled on this strategy, the Cardassians note a region of our space where overall Federation forces are divided, the local forces are relatively less strong, and where a quick coup de main could secure them valuable forward bases from which to defend a new, recently obtained sector of their space...
5a) The Cardassians, striking from the vicinity of Bajor, attack Lapycorias with minimal warning, in overwhelming strength (say, Combat 50).
5b) At the same time, the Cardassians guarantee the independence of the Celes Republic.
5c) We derive no tactical benefit from state of emergency preparations, because the orders to make the preparations didn't even reach Lapycorias until shortly before the Cardassian attack- or even afterwards.
5d) Our CBZ squadron (Combat 20) is forced to either beat a hasty retreat (abandoning the starbase to be captured by the Cardassians) or to make a heroic and doomed last stand.
6a) The Cardassians now have the option of holding a secure position around the captured starbase... OR
6b) If they feel they have enough force (and they well might), they can continue into Indorion space, inflicting heavy losses on the Indorion fleet, especially if the CBZ squadron was badly hammered a battle at Lapycorias.
7a) Either they win altogether (and our front line against the Cardassians has a gaping hole in it), permitting Cardassian raiders a much safer line of approach deeper into our space)...
7b) Or they at the very least manage to inflict severe losses, forcing us to commit 'penny packet' reinforcements if and when they can make it to the scene from bases on the far side of Federation space, potentially opening us up to even more losses.
_____________________________
I am really, really hoping this sequence of events does not unfold. However, if it doesn't unfold, it means one of three things:
One, a significant number of people who disagree with me made a mistake about some important factor in the situation...
Two, I am completely missing some obvious reason why the Cardassians should not do as I describe even given their warlike, hostile, and generally underhanded behavior...
Or three, the Cardassians get handed an idiot ball.
I would appreciate reassurance on this issue, if anyone can explain why my fears are misguided.
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AKuz
Been Better
- Location
- A Rising Tide of Horrors
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I was thinking about this from a Cardassian perspective and I think I've identified the chink in their armour that might buy us breathing room: Bajor.
Bajor is the launch pad for their invasion, yes. But it is an usturdy one. They've dispensed with all pretenses of partnership by now, but they have not yet fully integrated Bajor and are likely to still rely on Bajoran auxiliaries... and Bajoran spirit has not been crushed, resistance from the clerical and radical factions of society has not bee fully tapped out.
If they attack us from a staging ground in Bajor, there is no guarantee that the Bajorans will not take the opportunity to revolt. The Bajorans know that from here on out they will only grow weaker compared to an increasingly oppressive Cardassian Union. They may take the opportunity and a government as paranoid as the Cardassian one may become paralyzed by the fear of it.
It may even be a bargaining chip for us: we let them know that if they recognize Celosian independence we will make a blanket statement of support for any Bajoran insurrection. and potentially trigger a crisis in their backyard. And they will have to be worried about the possibility of the government in Exile in Seyek returning at the head of a Seyek/Starfleet armada and flipping Bajor into a dagger pointed directly at the heart of Cardassian space.
If we play our cards right, we might be able to achieve a situation of Mutually Assured Destruction involving our less reliable associates/clients. The Cardassians will have to be worried about trading a vital part of their empire for a burned out world that will fall before they relieve it.
Bajor is the launch pad for their invasion, yes. But it is an usturdy one. They've dispensed with all pretenses of partnership by now, but they have not yet fully integrated Bajor and are likely to still rely on Bajoran auxiliaries... and Bajoran spirit has not been crushed, resistance from the clerical and radical factions of society has not bee fully tapped out.
If they attack us from a staging ground in Bajor, there is no guarantee that the Bajorans will not take the opportunity to revolt. The Bajorans know that from here on out they will only grow weaker compared to an increasingly oppressive Cardassian Union. They may take the opportunity and a government as paranoid as the Cardassian one may become paralyzed by the fear of it.
It may even be a bargaining chip for us: we let them know that if they recognize Celosian independence we will make a blanket statement of support for any Bajoran insurrection. and potentially trigger a crisis in their backyard. And they will have to be worried about the possibility of the government in Exile in Seyek returning at the head of a Seyek/Starfleet armada and flipping Bajor into a dagger pointed directly at the heart of Cardassian space.
If we play our cards right, we might be able to achieve a situation of Mutually Assured Destruction involving our less reliable associates/clients. The Cardassians will have to be worried about trading a vital part of their empire for a burned out world that will fall before they relieve it.
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- Central Standard Time
A state of emergency will help by allowing us to mobilize civilian assets. No more, no less.
A state of emergency will be initially supported, as they are reserved for the most dire of situations. However, once it is over, and if the pundits deem it unnecessary, there will be hell to pay.
Short term objectives? Retaking Celos and preventing a war
Long term objectives? Peace in the quadrant, defeat of the Syndicate, defeat or pacification of the Cardassians and allied states.
Long Term:
The Cardassians (and allied states) want to expand.
The Romulans/Klingons want to defeat each other
The Syndicate want to survive.
Short Term:
The Cardassians want us to be kept off balance and slowly defeat us in detail.
The Romulans/Klingons want to avoid joining another war.
The Syndicate want to hold Celos.
A full state of emergency, if it fails, will result in a purge of Starfleet's High Command. Sousa, and possibly Chen and Sulu will be fired.
A conditional emergency will have a similar result, but will less spillover.
A Keep Calm and Carry On plan (High Alert) will leave us with the flexibility to declare a State of Emergency later.
If we mobilize in concentrated force, the Cardassians will be forced to bypass our fleets and risk getting cut off, or concentrate in turn and fight our fleets. Thus, the justification behind linking up with Indorian fleets at the SBZ Starbase.
- Location
- Central Standard Time
The one problem is that we cannot contact them.
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- Patriarchova
AKuz
Been Better
- Location
- A Rising Tide of Horrors
- Pronouns
- She/Her
We don't really need to knock the Syndicate right out on Celos. Just show up, arrest the government, turn of the comms units and make it clear the situation is hopeless. Difficult, yes, but not impossible. Especially if we get civil support. Mass demonstrations against the new government would really help; us right about now > : V
AKuz
Been Better
- Location
- A Rising Tide of Horrors
- Pronouns
- She/Her
We don't need to have a dialogue with them, we simply need to let them know that might do it. Talking with the Government in exile might do that just as well as broadcasting to the Cardassian fleet.
Though part of my analysis is that this is something the Cardassians will have too keep all of this in mind anyway.
It would be amusing if we avoid war because both sides are looking over our shoulders and going "THIS IS NOT A GOOD TIME"
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Well, I'm doubting myself now... Not sure what to do about that. I don't feel comfortable changing my vote to anything except @AKuz's write-in though, and there's no guarantee that that's going to be permitted. Maybe I'll just withdraw it entirely! Doubt it'll make a difference, though.
Edit: as someone said earlier, this really is a pretty good simulation of what Starfleet Command must be feeling right now!
Edit: as someone said earlier, this really is a pretty good simulation of what Starfleet Command must be feeling right now!
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- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
I like this strategy, I think it's a good one, it MAY prevent the Cardassians from simply rolling up all our forces in the area piecemeal.
If we had a "hotline" to Cardassia Prime, I would advocate calling them up and making the threat to do this right here and now.
Unfortunately, there is no such hotline, which complicates matters. [sighs]
Agreed. The challenge is going to be successfully arresting the government and making it clear to outsiders who've never been to Celos that the situation really IS hopeless for the Syndicate on Celos, faster than the Cardassians can decide to use this as a pretext for a war we suspect they wanted to fight anyway.
Because even if they have no hope of gaining anything from control of, or influence over, the planet Celos... We are really, really distracted right now.
Among other things... yaknow Nash's Task Force Two? That Combat 30+ force of Amarki ships? Yeah, that was supposed to be our operational reserve force to go play "Riders of Rohan" in case the Cardassians started winning in Indorion or Apiata space.
Right now, it's kind of, uh... stuck. Can't come to the phone right now. So sorry, too busy kicking Syndicate butt, buzz again later.
Awkward, if the Cardassians are able to start rolling us up somewhere in Apinae Sector.
Vote for whatever you think makes the most sense. Let the consequences fall where they may.
The odds are no better if the CBZ squadron is joined by a weak Indorian fleet. All you do is make the coup-de-main worse. Forcing the Cardassians to fight two battles buys us a week or two. It's the equivalent of having the carrier fleet and the battleship fleet both in Pearl Harbor when the Japanese attack.
I would almost say the better move is to issue a "preserve forces" order to the CBZ.
3c) The Cardassians decide, as per the reasoning given in the update, not to provide a conditional guarantee to the losing team.
4d) The Cardassians decide to issue a declaration and if we strike Celos anyway, treat that as casus belli in a move to splinter our affiliates, get neutrals on side, or shore up their own client support.
If they surprise attack then no matter what we lose the CBZ fleet, reinforcements or no. In the case that you think this chain of events are probable, you should be voting for an immediate State of Emergency to allow us to reinforce the CBZ. However, in the case where we are able to declare a prepared State of Emergency, we have a better response to the loss of the CBZ fleet, and a better diplomatic response to bring affiliates in or keep neutrals/Cardie clients out.
I am operating on the assumption that no matter what, IF the Cardassians protect Celos, the CBZ and Indoria are both toast. Presuming we don't declare an immediate SOE, which I have seen no support for.
We have a better chance of winning the long war by delaying that as long as possible (not opening vulnerability to surprise attack), and by ensuring our SOE declaration timing and diplomatic efforts are tailored to both the possibility that they do not support Celos and the possibility that we can show the Cardassians as both unreasonable and the aggressor.
- Location
- USA
There are some constraints, first the Apiata fleet is about 2/3 the strength of the Cardassian fleet and over 1/2 the strength of the combined Cardassian-Sydraxian fleet. In addition we have several EC Excelsiors around Apiata currently increasing that fleet strength.
Second the starbase should be able to spot a massing Cardassian fleet and if it is too much for our CBZ force to hold against they should fall back on Indoria to link up with the Indorian fleet. That will be a tough nut to crack, in addition the Cardassians have to be able to deliver that knock out blow quickly, otherwise the Seyek may mobilize and attack from one direction while Starfleet reinforces and pushes back on them. Then they have the Apiata pushing as well. Combine this with a join Rigellian-Tellarite-Earth task force with some of Starfleet moving to box in the Sydraxians to neutralize a threat from that direction.
The main thing is Cardassia knows that the Apiata are a force to be reckoned with. In addition they have lost ships in combat to Starfleet so have to consider that we have strength and have a rough idea of our strength. The problem for them becomes if they go for an invasion and attack our Starbase that is an overt act which from their view we need to either back down or respond. If we respond do they think they can take us if they cannot knock out parts of our fleet early.
Also how likely are their clients to come to their aid, and how many of what they see as our clients will come to ours. They may view the Dawiar as sitting it out which only has the Lecarre to distract us to the south and we have both the Qolathi and Caitians to deal with them then.
I do not doubt they have war plans drawn up, but I also imagine that they will try to get Celos and Orion without starting a war if possible since that would strengthen their position, at the same time by not starting a war off the bat they can avoid one if we prove stronger than expected.
Allow me to make all your fears worse. You can do everything right, and bad things can still happen! In fact, we could all vote for every choice you want, and your nightmare scenario could still go down! However....
Please note that a Starbase can see warp signatures from quite far off. That's one of the big reasons we build them. So the Cardassians can launch a "surprise" attack in that they can come roaring out of Bajor with all the forces they can scrape together in the immediate vicinity as fast as they can... which I doubt amounts to 50C. That's a full dozen Jalduns, or about 1/3 their total combat strength. But we still can see them coming for days away. It's a "surprise" in that we need to scramble our response from scratch while they are already underway. From there on all sorts of strategic options open up. Maybe we order the CBZ fleet to destroy the starbase and retreat to Indoria while we bring in forces to reinforce them. Maybe we judge they can hold on, supported by a Starbase (which I think has about Combat 10 or something on its own.)
But then we're into wartime planning.
- Location
- Infraspace
I'm going to put this here so I can switch quickly if I decide to. Going to have to go to bed now, though. Might try to wake up in a few hours to check what's happening: I've gotten really invested in this!
[][SOE] Maintain High Alert and consider a SOE when Cardassian intentions become clear but do not be beholden to a "Red line".
Maybe add a 'lay all possible groundwork for SoE, including informing the Council to prepare for the possibility'?
[][SOE] Maintain High Alert and consider a SOE when Cardassian intentions become clear but do not be beholden to a "Red line".
Maybe add a 'lay all possible groundwork for SoE, including informing the Council to prepare for the possibility'?