The Stinger having the majority of the fire was due to testing doctrine settings. Apiatan Queenships hang back and leave it to the Stingers.
There are two stages: side firing is based on the number of ships. Ship firing and ship targeted are weighted according to doctrine.
Okay.
But the main cause for concern wasn't just that the Stinger did most of the shooting, it's that the heavy ships didn't contribute to the battle at all until the escort on their own side has already died. The
Centaur-A took
ALL the fire first, while the
Excelsior did not contribute anything noticeable (aside, apparently, from changing the odds of the
Centaur-A even getting to fire from 33% to 50%).
Did you hand the Federation and Apiata identical "explorer hangs back, escorts do the fighting" doctrines to see what would happen? That would explain what we saw.
_________________
On the other hand, that raises some issues.
I begin with the assumption that the base probability of scoring a hit was 67% for the Stinger, on account of being part of the side with two ships. Which is consistent with the
Excelsior getting a shot off about 25 times in the 80 combat rounds. However, the result is that the
Excelsior averaged less than one hit point of damage per round against the Stinger even on the turns it got to attack the Stinger at all. This helps to explain why the Stinger was able to inflict roughly 65 HP of damage (50 to shields, 15 to hull) to the
Excelsior while taking only 25 damage in return.
The problem this raises is that the result in the combat engine is extremely unfair compared to the reality it's modeling. The Stinger benefits from the Queenship's "presence" in terms of increasing its hit probability greatly, and decreasing the hit probability of the two ships opposing it. But the Queenship is not at risk until the Stinger is destroyed, and the Stinger gets to inflict roughly twice as much damage upon the enemy as it receives, due to the Queenship's presence. Despite the fact that in theory the Queenship is 'hanging back' and not even participating in the battle, which is why it is immune to being targeted.
This creates a balance problem where any doctrine that lets you tell one or more of your ships to "hang back" out of the fight becomes extremely powerful. It increases your fleet's hit probability (and thus greatly extends their lifespan)... but it cannot be targeted. Thus, one explorer and one escort with total Combat 8 and 140 HP become easily capable of defeating one explorer and one escort with total Combat 9 and 140 HP, almost
deterministically so, with the Apiata explorer barely even taking any damage. And this result is achieved, counterintuitively, by NOT having the Apiata explorer participate in combat directly, until such time as the Stinger has been destroyed.
So now I have to ask a few questions.
_________________________
Can we expect realistic doctrines to result in certain types of ships being
deterministically targeted first, every single time? Or to make certain types of ships
immune to enemy action? Because either of these results would result in doctrines becoming extremely overpowered. And in the interaction of two fleets with different doctrines becoming extremely unpredictable.
Hopefully, that isn't an issue. What I'm hoping is that the "100% effective" doctrines we see in the recent combat log were something you set up just for this one test, purely as a test of whether doctrine-based target weighting was working. Whereas realistic doctrines available in gameplay merely weight an otherwise random distribution of hits. Is that closer to the truth?
Because again, while I fully recognize this was a test run, it's a test run that suggests there are some serious underlying balance problems
unless those balance problems were the result of deliberately tweaking the parameters of the battle to give an unusual and excessive advantage to the Apiata. Since it resulted in a Combat 4, 50 HP escort being able to duel and blow up a Combat 3, 50 HP escort, then inflict 65 HP of damage to a Combat 6, 90 HP explorer, before itself being destroyed.