We do need new pills, gss and white room exact values to make a precise estimation, but even guesstimating (the last time we leveled FVM, SCS, TRF we gained ~60 suxx per action, TRF need 300 for green 1 and 600 seems likely for green 2) 16 Major cultivation actions should be enough to cap out any Art at Green 2.
Sure, but we've got NINE arts. Sure, FSA and FZ are capped, but that still leaves seven arts that require additional work. On top of that, we still need to break through to Bronze, and still need to train up EPC and Spiritual, and probably need to learn one or two new arts as well.
Lets sit down and actually do the math.
We are finishing up week 37 soon, which means we will have weeks 38 through 52 to prepare, or 15 weeks. In each week, we have 5 actions, which means we have a total of
75 actions available.
Each breakthrough costs us on average 1 + 2 * .45 / .55 = 2.6. We need three breakthrough actions, for roughly
8 actions total.
Cultivating to Green Appraisal currently requires 500 successes. We are going to get a bunch of those from other sources, but that still leaves 300 successes for us to strive for - and at 60 successes an action, this comes out to
5 actions.
EPC requires 200 successes. As of last time we trained it, we got about 30 successes with a good roll, and incidentally that is about how fast we can cultivate it via our Grinning Moon bonus. Either way, this should take a little over 6 actions, but we will be done one this weeks so that leaves
5 actions.
If our arts average 60 successes per action, then 4 actions gets us 240 successes. Looking over green arts we've seen (FVM, AM, TRF) that is roughly the order of magnitude we need to deal with. Thus, just the early 3rd-realm version of AC, AM, FVM, TRF, SCS, and AE would require 4*6 =
24 actions.
Of course, before cultivating AE and AC to Green, we would need to actually finish up what they are doing in Yellow. That should take about
3 actions between them.
To cultivate FVM, TRF, and AE to Green Foundation, I expect we would need on the order of ~420 successes on average, or 7 actions. If we do this for each of these arts, that is
21 actions total.
SCS6, FVM7, AM5, TRF6, AE3, AE5, AC3, and AC5 will all require meridians. We currently have 3 meridians open - that leaves
5 more actions to take care of the other meridians.
In addition to our current arts, I expect us to get some sort of buff art to help us stick our FVM dice. If we assume it takes 120 successes to hit the yellow cap and 240 successes to train to Green Appraisal, that is another 6 actions. Plus it probably requires at least three meridians, so that totals up at
9 actions overall.
So far, I've described a total of 80 actions worth of stuff that we are going to want to do
before hitting Green Foundation, and we have 75 actions available. It is true that this is based on our current cultivation speed, which can be sped up in any number of ways. However, it is also the case that I didn't cover a number of other things that I expect we will be doing with our time. For instance, I haven't accounted for learning Flying Swords, which is liable to be a major undertaking. Overall, I'd say that our time before the tournoument is roughly the time we need to upgrade our art suite properly to Green Appraisal + Early Bronze, though that does mean that worries of stalling out just before we finish are also reasonable.
