They should be stronger than CRX, but they shouldn't be stronger than CRX by such a margin that they can reliably beat her. And if they are, it's something the sect can never, ever, ever imply. They can't afford to insult Shenhua that way.
Either Sun Liling or Bai Meizhen losing to CRX before their matches against each other is also something that is unacceptable given it's almost certain the main reason people are coming to the tournament is to see that match.
So, CRX can't fight either Meizhen or Sun Liling before their own matches.
I disagree. They should both be capable of reliably beating Renxiang. Both are personal combat focused and have been devoting significantly more time to cultivation. Wheras we've seen some of what Renxiang has been doing in the past few weeks, which includes a significant focus on support arts.
The only real question is Liming. We know that it was powerful enough back in late second realm to allow CRX to significantly contest a newly green Liling. If it has improved consumately she might stand a chance. On the other hand Cui was occupying Liling's spirit at that point so I'm not so confident.
I agree with you that Renxiang will probably be the final opponent, unless Shenhua has something else in mind.
On a seperate matter I've been thinking about face in this tournament.
One thing I do wonder about, who would it be worse for CRX to lose to, in terms of loss of face?
Sun obviously has the issue of her well documented feud, and the Gan Ganguli thing. On the other hand she is a princess, acknowledged heir to the Sun dukedom and has recieved tutoring and much favour and resources from Sun Shao himself. The Sun's exertion of their power and resources, both in the year and in this tournament, has been extremly obvious and vastly out of proportion to what is usual, even for one of such exalted position. It is also obvous that Cai has not enjoyed the same level of unlimited favour and credit from Shenhua. A loss to the Sun would be a loss of face certainly, especially in light of their rivalry, but it would be loss to an acknowleged peer, who has had to vastly overspend on resources and capital to achieve a (fairly slim) victory.
By contrast Meizhen is an ally, and a defeat would sting less from that perspective, but as others have noted she is merely a member of a ducal house. In contrast to Sun Meizhen has had much lesser resources over the years than Cai, although still much greater than anyone not from a ducal house could expect. Indeed she is the daughter of someone who was, rightly or wrongly, executed for treason against the throne. So Meizehn beating Cai, who is from a family of strong throne supporters could send a powerful message, especially if she also beats Sun.
Another part of the issue is that Cai is somewhat support focused compared to the other two. This is a fine and expected style for a high noble, and might somewhat mitigate the loss of face from being beaten by them*, except thanks to Shenhua's prescence and (lack of) meddling, Renxiang hasn't had a chance to show that off, instead putting on a show with indomitable tyrant art in the only stage she could have shown off her group combat skills, which could make her look weaker than she really is come the finals.
Politically the best result for everyone is probably Meizhen beating Sun but narrowly losing (or at least appearing to) to Cai in a clearly friendly match. But that depends on behind the scenes politics as well I suspect.
*I expect Han Jian not to suffer too badly in fae terms should he lose due to this, although he does have Heijin, so less excuse than Cai.