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Forge of Destiny(Xianxia Quest)

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fictionfan said:
So what are the chances of Bai Meizhen eliminating Sun before we have to fight her?

Bai and Sun are not going to be fighting the final round. That runs the risk of one of them losing to Cai first which no one wants. So they are either going to fight in the first round or the semi finals.

If they fight in the semi finals then Ling is fighting Cai which seems lame for anyone arranging the matches.
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Well let's parse it out. Next comes the Round of 16, which is up in the air. There's a thought that we might fight Kang or Ji Rong there, but all the monsters are getting in due to reasons already hashed out so they'll get fed fights they can pass.

Round of 8, I could see the Meizhen vs Sun fight coming in. But I think it would take political leverage and expenditure of a pretty high level because either of them losing at that point is pretty embarrassing for them, though somewhat offset by the awesome fight. (As an aside it might be the easiest time for us to watch accept for the Round of 2)

Round of 4, our stop is one of the Monsters if they have not already been eliminated. The Meizhen vs Sun fight is really likely, in which case we fight Cai Renxiang. She'll likely beat us, but in that case it's basically a show match where we exchange face between each other and grow face.

Then whoever is left fights Ren. A Ren and Mei fight would be fun to watch. We've yet to see Meizhen fly and I'm curious if she can.
 
Erebeal said:
Eh, Sun beating us is such a great setup for Meizhen v Sun though.
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They won't have Sun face us in the first round if they think that there is even a 10% chance of us beating her. Given the show we put in the preliminaries I think that we have established that 10% even against someone a stage above us.
 
fictionfan said:
So what are the chances of Bai Meizhen eliminating Sun before we have to fight her?

Bai and Sun are not going to be fighting the final round. That runs the risk of one of them losing to Cai first which no one wants. So they are either going to fight in the first round or the semi finals.

If they fight in the semi finals then Ling is fighting Cai which seems lame for anyone arranging the matches.
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I don't follow that logic. Sun v Bai final would be a great closer. If Cai manages to get in instead, then that's unexpected but still pretty great. It's classic sports tournament structure, and even with political shenanigans, I still expect them to set up the final that way.

But even they end up in the same side of the bracket, there's no way Ling Qi faces the winner of the two. They'd face each other in the semis at the latest, and that would entail Ling Qi somehow making it to the final.
 
AbeoLogos said:
Because there are 16 competitors, there's 4 rounds. First round is 8 matches, second round is 4 matches, third round is 2 matches, and last round is 1 match, obviously. If you win your first match, you win a spot in the Inner Sect; lose your first match, and you don't get into the Inner Sect. Therefore, they will definitely not be fighting in the first round, because it would mean one of them doesn't get into the Inner Sect and a) both have too much political backing for that and b) even though their families really want the kids to fight it out, they don't want it enough to risk the loss of face of not getting into the Inner Sect at all. Basically, neither side wants the stakes to be that high.

Most likely the matches will be arranged so the only way we can fight Liling is if she beats Meizhen... and we beat Renxiang, and it's the two of us in the final match.
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Greatly overselling our ability. As the spar with Meizhen showed, we can give a fight at all, which is impressive, but thinking we'd win is not going to be in anyone's plans.


Look at the matchups for Sun:
-G16 - Scrub. Anyone with backing would autolose anyway.
-G8 - Preferentially Cai ally to regain her loss of face, but no Monster because the timing is off. So that'd be Ling Qi, Han Jian, Xiulan or possibly Wen Ai. For drama purposes, Ling Qi gives the best Meizhen fight afterwards.
-G4 - Depending on how Cai string pulling worked, she could well face Cai Renxiang. And based on what we know of both of them she's doing to body CRX all over the place. If not this will be when she fights Meizhen.
-G2 - Meizhen or Cai Renxiang. More likely to be Meizhen because it makes an epic fight and we already know Caimom gives zero shits
 
fictionfan said:
They won't have Sun face us in the first round if they think that there is even a 10% chance of us beating her. Given the show we put in the preliminaries I think that we have established that 10% even against someone a stage above us.
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Of course yrsillar won't unless he wants to end the quest there without us getting into Inner. That's why I think it's likely we face her in the second or third round.
 
I don't think Ling Qi will face Ji Rong in the next match (or Sun Liling or Kang Zihao for that matter). G16 is the cutoff for getting inside the inner sect, and the sect has nor real motive to fix the matches so that the likes of Han Fang or Wen Ai would get in instead of Ji Rong or Ling Qi.

Part of the reason for the tournament in the first place is to show off all the talent in the sect, and forcing Ling Qi and Ji Rong to fight at G16 means that one of them isn't getting into the inner sect and basically means that the sect has harmed their own future prospects because of outside pressure (this is also a massive loss of face).

Realistically, the three monsters, the two super commoner, Shen Hu the elder's favourite (possibly belongs in the previous category?) and Kang Zihao are people the sect wants to promote. Possibly Chu Song is also there, but she hangs at the edges alongside Gu Xiulan and Heijin Han Jian. The four randos plus Han Fang don't really deserve to advance in this year, and Wen Ai is a second year that has only broken recently so she isn't very likely to advance.

My guess is that Ling Qi will face either Chu Song (if the sect pushes the Han\Gu fight) or Wen Ai (which would possibly have a trick to counter Ling Qi, given Kang Zihao privately conferred with Wen Ai at the second party). G8 would be against Ji Rong and G4 would be against Sun Liling.
 
archangis said:
She is the only one beside the monsters and king zihao to have had a preliminary filled with scrubs. Either her familly has a lot of influence over the sect or she is hiding her power.

Also because it would be one hell of a dark horse, and completely upset everyone prediction. :p
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Wen Ai seemed to mirror Han Jian in their preliminaries, rather than mirror the monsters.

Basically, while she might be a dark horse, everything points to them having an easy preliminary in order to give the Han and the Wen family face before they lose.
 
archangis said:
She is the only one beside the monsters and king zihao to have had a preliminary filled with scrubs. Either her familly has a lot of influence over the sect or she is hiding her power.

Also because it would be one hell of a dark horse, and completely upset everyone prediction. :p
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I think it's due to Sun's meddling in a roundabout way.

Sun Liling and Kang Zihao were in the same fight which meant that neither one had to show their hand, by contrast Bai Meizhen and Cai Renxiang were by their lonesome, Ling Qi too in a way. Wen Ai got an easy match because it was all seeded to give Cai affiliates a bad time.
 
Imo Ling Qi made a good enough showing in the prelims, essensially beating a higher level cultivator without taking a hit, that she should be considered the "fourth monster". So she should face:
R16 aka Inner Sect selection: a scrub (nameless Yellow?) for an easy win
R8 aka quarters: a "peer" (Ji Rong/Kong) for a reasonable chance at wining
R4 aka semi-finals: a monster(Sun Liling) ... most probably a loss, though it'd be hilarious to pull out a win somehow.
R2 (finals): Meizhen
 
If Ling Qi acquits herself well enough to get to the semi-finals, I wonder if she'd be matched against CRX as a test to see what both of them do in that scenario. Ling Qi's progression is fast enough that there must be a realistic fear that she'd leave CRX in the dust in Cultivation terms over the next couple of centuries, as Shenhua probably hasn't been interested enough to find out quite how lucky Ling Qi was, so it might look plausible that she's Talent 7 (+?), for a previously undefeated commoner to advance so quickly). Shenhua probably doesn't want a situation where Ling Qi becomes the real power behind a puppet CRX, so may be looking for leading indicators of what will happen if they clash.
 
veekie said:
Greatly overselling our ability. As the spar with Meizhen showed, we can give a fight at all, which is impressive, but thinking we'd win is not going to be in anyone's plans.


Look at the matchups for Sun:
-G16 - Scrub. Anyone with backing would autolose anyway.
-G8 - Preferentially Cai ally to regain her loss of face, but no Monster because the timing is off. So that'd be Ling Qi, Han Jian, Xiulan or possibly Wen Ai. For drama purposes, Ling Qi gives the best Meizhen fight afterwards.
-G4 - Depending on how Cai string pulling worked, she could well face Cai Renxiang. And based on what we know of both of them she's doing to body CRX all over the place. If not this will be when she fights Meizhen.
-G2 - Meizhen or Cai Renxiang. More likely to be Meizhen because it makes an epic fight and we already know Caimom gives zero shits
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I didn't say we'd actually beat Renxiang, it's just the only way I can see us facing off against Liling after Meizhen has had a chance to fight her, which was the context I was responding to. I could have been more clear.
 
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Imagine the chaos if we DO manage to win this thing. Unlikely (impossible?), sure. But just imagine.

Ling Qi, facing and defeating the latest crop of Monsters. And doing so while only cultivating for a year. With a rare(?) spirit like Zengui.

I can already hear the Logic Crash happening to multiple people, Sect Elders included.
 
TimEd said:
Imagine the chaos if we DO manage to win this thing. Unlikely (impossible?), sure. But just imagine.

Ling Qi, facing and defeating the latest crop of Monsters. And doing so while only cultivating for a year. With a rare(?) spirit like Zengui.

I can already hear the Logic Crash happening to multiple people, Sect Elders included.
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Elder Jiao would enjoy the chaos.:V
 
Arkeus said:
Wen Ai seemed to mirror Han Jian in their preliminaries, rather than mirror the monsters.

Basically, while she might be a dark horse, everything points to them having an easy preliminary in order to give the Han and the Wen family face before they lose.
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Han Jian is also the son of the heir. Ling Qi isn't exactly the most observent, but I believe she would have noticed Wen Ai being a high noble related to the heir of the Wen familly.

I guess we will know which it is in the next few updates.

Anyway, onto the fights, I can only predict a CRX Sun fight. CRX won the wargame and thus Sun need to show that she is better than CRX at least somewhere. So that people can't say that the Sun are weaker than the Cais.
 
archangis said:
Han Jian is also the son of the heir. Ling Qi isn't exactly the most observent, but I believe she would have noticed Wen Ai being a high noble related to the heir of the Wen familly.

I guess we will know which it is in the next few updates.

Anyway, onto the fights, I can only predict a CRX Sun fight. CRX won the wargame and thus Sun need to show that she is better than CRX at least somewhere. So that people can't say that the Sun are weaker than the Cais.
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only after qualifying though. Someone pointed out that the finals will probably be Sun vs Bai.

So we might get matched with Meizhen durinf the semifinals if we last as long.
 
TimEd said:
only after qualifying though. Someone pointed out that the finals will probably be Sun vs Bai.

So we might get matched with Meizhen durinf the semifinals if we last as long.
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Finals can't be Sun vs Bai, as it assumes that CRX will lose against either Sun or Bai.

Both Sun Shao and Bai Suzhen really, really wants the Bai Meizhen vs Sun Liling fight, and you can't not have it. However, you also can't set up the fights in a way that means either Sun Liling or Bai Meizhen are certain to win against CRX, as then it's basically saying Shenhua's heir sucks. So, you can't have either CRX vs Liling or CRX vs Meizhen before there is Meizhen vs Liling.

The most likely semi-finals are CRX vs ???/ Meizhen vs Liling, with CRX fighting the winner in the finals.
 
Arkeus said:
The most likely semi-finals are CRX vs ???/ Meizhen vs Liling, with CRX fighting the winner in the finals.
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CRX should be fighting either us, or whoever our opponent is in Best of 8. So that's definitely something to consider. We'll obviously fight our hardest against our Best of 8 opponent, not just to secure our rank, but also to help reveal all the opponent's tricks to Cai before she has to fight them, but if we go up against Cai... Do we actually try our hardest to defeat her, or do we try to turn it into an exhibition match where we both give each other opportunity to strut our stuff? I'm thinking something like the Shikako/Gaara fight in Dreaming of Sunshine.
 
The risk of sandbagging in a match with CRX is that it could be seen as both disrespectful to the Sect and the audience as well as being a sign of weakness for CRX that she can't legitimately defeat her own vassal.
 
Alratan said:
The risk of sandbagging in a match with CRX is that it could be seen as both disrespectful to the Sect and the audience as well as being a sign of weakness for CRX that she can't legitimately defeat her own vassal.
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...No?

The issue would require that Ling Qi sandbag for CRX as a show of deference and chance for Renxiang to display her strength for the wider audience.

It'd be a farce of a fight, sure, but it'd be one that's expected and encouraged of us.
 
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