Forge of Destiny(Xianxia Quest)

A future shrouded in Fog
A future shrouded in fog

The morning bell wakes me. The mayor has decreed that we must be ready for inspection at any moment until his exalted guest leaves, and so I've spent the last few nights in the barracks. It's not so bad, the barracks are decent enough and I can get by on three hours of sleep. Perks of being a Cultivator, even if the upper ranks consider us Reds barely better than mortal.

I make my way to the cantina, past the punishment detail. The poor bastards got lost on patrol. Rumor says the guest noticed, and made some comment. They'll be mucking out latrines till the Sage Emperor returns. Can't blame 'em for gettin lost, the fog's been so thick these past few days that you can't see the face of the man walking next to you. I count myself lucky I know these streets better than the back of my hand. The guy having a breakdown over figures in the fog is just sad.

I sit down with my squad. We're new, the sergeant made Yellow just a few months ago, and so she got her own squad. Most of them have been a group for a while, but her breakthrough made it official. I got moved in to bring up the numbers, and because I keep my mouth shut. That's something you learn on the streets, just like overhearing your boss.

I eat in silence, while the boss holds her little pretend court. It's the same pale imitation of nobility performed by crime bosses and their thugs, or rich merchants and their stooges. The language changes, but the dance is always the same. It's silly, and I have no idea how she never grows tired of the same old insincere flattery. Maybe she's got hemorrhoids and they need a lot of kissing to get better.

She makes a joke at that moment, and so I laugh along with the rest of the table. I get a look for that, maybe cause it was too genuine. There's a tense moment before she shrugs it off.

"Right boys, we have the eastside patrol today. Good luck for you, new guy."

There's something in her tone, in her grin. The rest of the squad all grin back in anticipation. At a guess, she's out to collect some bribe. I've noticed she's been carrying nicer gear recently. Well, not gonna complain if she wants to cut me in, just wish she'd waited until after the guest left. A surprise visit from the capital can mean a lot of things, but they're pretty much all bad. The Cai have a reputation.

We march through the streets. Things have been quiet, but that's no surprise when you're in constant danger of walking into a wall, or a guard walking into you. Everybody's been keeping inside, except the poor bastards like me that have to be out patrolling.

We come to a stop before a decent looking house. Nothing too fancy, certainly less than I expected given the sergeant's new swag. Maybe they just like a humble facade. Music is drifting out. Might be nice, if one of the players wasn't a rank amateur. The sergeant marches up the stairs, and shoves the door open. No lock, maybe she's expected. Or maybe they just gave up on locking, the door is just a bit newer than the rest of the house. Might have been replaced as recently as a months back.

"Ey, Ling Qingge, you old whore, I'm here for my payout."

The music stops. There's steps on the stairs, and Ling Qingge walks into the room, back straight despite the signs of a hard life on her face. You can tell she probably made a decent living in her time. She's followed by a young woman, good looking if she'd put some effort into it and yet couldn't be bothered to. She's wearing the gear of a bruiser, but the quality is not too bad.

"Oh, so this is your mighty Cultivator daughter. Mid Gold. Hah, figures with mortals. Some minor noble decides to play crime boss, and grabs a whore to get some deniable muscle. With what he's paying, he must be fucking her on the side. Or maybe that's cause he's the father too? Now pay up Qingge, before I beat the shit out of you. Might do that anyway for pulling this shit."

Something isn't right here. The daughter shows the perfect mix of fear, anger and humiliation, but the mother? It looks right, but something is setting off your alarm bells. Telling the difference between genuine fear and imitation can make the difference between getting shanked for a loaf of bread in a back alley, or running to live another day. This? This isn't right.

The daughter makes a perfect show of gathering up her courage and wrapping her tattered pride around herself. It's perfect. She's perfect. I'm good at this, wouldn't be here otherwise, but she's better. She's making me doubt my guts. Maybe I've just lost it. But if not? It means she can't be just Mid Gold. It means we're all in trouble. And now she's speaking.

"I was a thief, not a whore. And I do admit my noble patron has given me some tasks that are better not talked about. But I have my pride, I won't allow you to just walk over me and steal from my family. That gown you're wearing should be protecting my little sister, as it protected me."

I get a glimpse of the mothers face, before my face hits the ground and I kowtow. If I'm wrong, the sergeant will give me hell. But if I'm right, she's insulted the Mayor's guest, who rumor has as anything from the ducal court musician, to trouble shooter, spy mistress, head diplomat, personal assassin or childhood friend of the heir. Because the city has been sitting in unnatural fog for days. Because somebody's been fucking with the guards.

Because it wasn't fear or even concern in the mother's eyes. It was anticipation, and satisfaction.

"What the fuck are you do"- and then the sergeant is interrupted. Silence. I don't look up. Only a fool would look up. I'm not sure what to feel in this moment. I was right. But really, that might be worse.

The Cai have a reputation, and their servants strive to uphold it.

I try to keep from shaking. The silence grows. I've never been closer to death, not even after three weeks without food in the winter, not even with a knife in my guts and the Sweet Scent gang after me.

"You've rather spoiled the game. Who are you?"

Well shit. Her tone is cold with disdain now, like she's discussing a turd with funny shape. Grinning moon, preserve me now.

"I apologize, Lady Ling. I am Meng Dai."

There's a contemplative silence, and the rustle of cloth, but nothing more. I'm trying to take joy in living, but it's not working well.

"Meng Dai. I believe you once stole an apple from me. And three coppers. "

Ok, what? How would that happen? Except, she's a whore's daughter. Admitted thief. Surname Ling. Don't fail me now, memory. I really wish the flashing before your eyes thing was actually true, I could really use it right now. Oh, there was the Sumaki job way back. Though that was more than just three copper. Which I will definitely not mention right now, or ever.

"Ah, Ling Qi? I apologize for any offense I caused you."

"Do you regret those actions? Stealing from me?"

"Yes, Lady Ling. Deeply."

"Did you regret them thirty minutes ago?"

Shit. I really want to say yes. But I didn't. I wasn't proud, but I survived the way any street rat did. Lying to her would be a fools errant, and my last mistake.

"No."

I try to enjoy my last few heartbeats. It doesn't work, because a quick death is honestly one of the more appealing options.

"Very well. Get up, and go gather your things. Report to the palace tomorrow morning. You talent is lacking, but I can make use of someone with a quick mind and the ability to speak uncomfortable truth to his betters."

I hurry to my feet, though I keep my eyes low, even if her tone warmed up to glacial. I walk to door, past the other members of my short-lived squat. The sergeant is nailed to the door frame with a knife, but she seems frozen by terror more than anything else. I hesitate. I have to ask, or it's going to eat me alive.

"What's going to happen to them?"

What would have happened to me?

"The sergeant will have a meeting with my patron. Lady Cai disapproves of corruption, and doesn't enjoy personal insults either. I'm sure they'll have much to discuss. The rest have a meeting with the Ministry of Integrity. Now go."

I leave, running from her unrestrained glory. It's as grand and terrible as they all are.

Then pure terror chills my spine as the door is flung open. A demon steps in. It wants to kill. It wants to devour. It -

"I have bought groceries."

It wants to deliver groceries?

"That's great Meizhen! See, I told you emptying the streets would help to ease you in. How many babies cried?"

There's a uncomfortable silence as the demon puts down the bags.

"... Two. But I believe they were unrelated."

"Uh huh. We'll discuss when the rest are back."

The window shatters, and a red blur resolves into a figure. Also carrying a bag, celery sticking out the top.

"Welcome back Liling. I see you got it. How many people did you sacrifice to the sunflowers?"

"Not a single one! I didn't even bleed anyone."

"And what did you sacrifice?"

"... just a few stray dogs. Nobody was eating them anyway."

The demon speaks up again.

"So we are now waiting on Zhengui and Xiulan?"

"Nah. Zhengui finished ages ago, and then went out to again to extinguish the shop Xiulan set on fire. She's pouting in the basement."
Why do all my writing things end up way longer than expected? Also, writing first person after so long with second person is hard.
 
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I'd rather save those until cyan personally, since that's an even bigger boost to go from 45 to 50, though the argument can be made we'd be able to find something similar by then. Still, better to have what you have now rather than plan around getting something similar in the future.....
Cyan's a long way off and lot of things can happen between now and then.
 
+1 on using the super pills on us.

Let's just make sure we make everything posible to get the best results on the breakthrough,
let's not taunt murphy by selling those pills saying we don't need them.
I can already see half our rolls ending up being from 56 to 60 if we don't use those pills.

At Green, I think it was calculated that we would have to be very unlucky to lose another week of concentrated breaking through, though. Using them now doesn't maximize our resourcs, unless some circunstance makes us VERY pressed for time.
For the Cyan breakthrough, they would be much more cost effective, but then we are stuck keeping them on us for years, and we might find something better but not compatible with them. (or, OOC, the quest might just die out and we never get to use them)
The other alternative is to sell them. We have an idea that they are quite valuable, but not exactly how much. I suspect that they are the kind of thing that you do not buy or sell for money, but instead trade them for other stuff that you cannot get for just money. Like rare pills, semisecret arts, or special artifacts. We should dedicate some action (minor or major) to discretely find out about the market for such things (with the excuse of our own coming breakthrough, it will nicely train subterfuge) and evaluate our options. After green we will likely need some new equipment and fliyng swords (or flutes) do not come cheap. Maybe some of our less talented but more connected friends would be willing to trade some superior quality gear for these drugs.
 
At Green, I think it was calculated that we would have to be very unlucky to lose another week of concentrated breaking through, though. Using them now doesn't maximize our resourcs, unless some circunstance makes us VERY pressed for time.
For the Cyan breakthrough, they would be much more cost effective, but then we are stuck keeping them on us for years, and we might find something better but not compatible with them. (or, OOC, the quest might just die out and we never get to use them)
The other alternative is to sell them. We have an idea that they are quite valuable, but not exactly how much. I suspect that they are the kind of thing that you do not buy or sell for money, but instead trade them for other stuff that you cannot get for just money. Like rare pills, semisecret arts, or special artifacts. We should dedicate some action (minor or major) to discretely find out about the market for such things (with the excuse of our own coming breakthrough, it will nicely train subterfuge) and evaluate our options. After green we will likely need some new equipment and fliyng swords (or flutes) do not come cheap. Maybe some of our less talented but more connected friends would be willing to trade some superior quality gear for these drugs.
Wasn't there there a difference in the pills? Like, the +5 pill gets more useful with time, but the reroll pill stays pretty similar. I'm for using that one at least.

Great read, but this name seems a bit out of place.
Huh, thinking about it, that's a Japanese name. I just thought 'Let's find something Asiatic'. Good point, changed it.
 
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Wasn't there there a difference in the pills? Like, the +5 pill gets more useful with time, but the reroll pill stays pretty similar. I'm for using that one at least.
We get more because we need one more successful breakthrough, at an extra -5 difficulty. So both pills are more useful, one disminishes the difficulty (more useful at higher difficulties) and the other reduces the penalties of failing a roll (more useful if there are more rolls)
 
Erebeal did the math, and if we use both pills and do a 6 action week, we have a 70-something percent chance of finishing Green in that week. I think is was 76 or 79...
The previous average number of actions to break through was 9 for just Green. Using the pills gives us a good chance of it taking 6 or less.
 
Again. Cyan is literally years away. And we will be under much less time pressure then.
I agree that keeping them for Cyan would be the worst choice - It is taking way too much of a long view.
The question is what is going to be more valuable: one week of actions, or whatever we can trade for them after we become Green. That is going to depend both on our near future circunstances, and what their value actually is. Unfortunately right now we ignore both of this things.
 
Pretty much, yeah.

Like, we need to hit green as soon as we're reasonably confident our foundation is solid, but by that point, we're effectively already 'Great'. Xiulan's sister getting Cyan by 21 is already considered exceptional, so it means that we're going to have a lot more time to git gud, and we can lean more on our talent and patience to get us through that.
 
Xiulan's sister getting Cyan by 21 is already considered exceptional, so it means that we're going to have a lot more time to git gud, and we can lean more on our talent and patience to get us through that.

Not to mention that reaching Cyan fast is not the same as reaching Cyan good.
We could already have made Green if we wanted, but we would be losing on bonuses from optimizing our foundation. Cyan will probably be even worse, satisfying all our requirements will likely take a lot more time than succeeding on our breakthroughs.
 
Pretty much, yeah.

Like, we need to hit green as soon as we're reasonably confident our foundation is solid, but by that point, we're effectively already 'Great'. Xiulan's sister getting Cyan by 21 is already considered exceptional, so it means that we're going to have a lot more time to git gud, and we can lean more on our talent and patience to get us through that.
Along with hopefully monthly turns and time skips.
 
Alright, so our shiny new breakthrough pills definitely encourage us to go all in for 1 week there. I've run up some simulations of how this could go, and what we can expect, assuming we have 6 actions to spend.

Basically, I've examined two strategies here. In strategy 1, we roll Green until we fail, using our reroll if needed. Once we've failed, we switch to Bronze, and roll that until failure. After that, we basically look at things, check which of them is closer to completion (probably green), and try to recover and try again.

In strategy 2 we go all in on Green. We start the same as in strategy one, rolling green and using our reroll. The difference here is that when we fail the first time (after using the reroll), instead of switching to bronze we recover and try again - and keep trying until we fail a second time. Then we switch to Bronze and continue as before.

The tables shown below are contingency tables showing the joint and marginal probabilities for how many successes we might get on each of Green and Bronze. For example, in strategy 1 we have a 15% chance of getting 3 successes in Green and 0 in Bronze. Reading across the rows, we have a 59% chance of getting Green, but only a 23% chance of getting Bronze.

In strategy 2 we essentially shift some of our bronze chances to green, improving our odds there. Now we have a 76% chance of getting Green, but lower odds of getting successes in Bronze. This is the strategy I would recommend we go with, since it gives us the best odds of completing 1 of our breakthroughs. We don't actually get anything for being halfway after-all.



Edit: if anyone's wondering how we somehow increase our odds of getting full successes in both green and bronze in strategy 2, I think that's just noise in the simulation. I only ran this 1000 times (prob should have done more), so there's a bit of error there.
Here ya go @PrimalShadow
 
Erebeal did the math, and if we use both pills and do a 6 action week, we have a 70-something percent chance of finishing Green in that week. I think is was 76 or 79...
The previous average number of actions to break through was 9 for just Green. Using the pills gives us a good chance of it taking 6 or less.
While this is true, note that the total number of expected successes between green and bronze is 3.7 (add up the marginal expectancy), and this likely leaves us in a position where we have to bring at least one of our cultivations back to peak.

Normally, it should take us 1/0.55 ~ 1.8 tries to succeed once, which means we can expect to fail about 0.8 times and need to spend that time recovering; that is an expected cost of 2.6 actions per success. 3.7 successes should require ~9.6 actions. This means that we save 3.6 actions by using the pills, minus whatever expected effort we need to recover if we need to terrified back to peak.

I previously did the math and claimed that the reroll pill was worth 2.5 actions, and the other one was worth less then 1 action. Looks like @Erebeal's simulation bears out my result.
 
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