Wildcard option here, but...

What if we intervened on the side of the Ashalla pact? Its not like they could turn around and say, "um, actually we can handle this" considering they've accused the Chrystovians of things the Federation takes a dim view on, while putting us in a position to subvert Cardassia subsuming the Chrystovians. We get our fleet in place, resolve the issues that caused the declaration of war and then give the Ashalla pact a nice big smile and a "That was a good job. Now that the situation has been resolved. Best we all go home now, don't you think?"

We literally cannot get the ships for an invasion force to the Chrystovians before the Pact is finished conquering them. They'd just go "Sure, we'll do it for you, thanks for the moral support, no need to get up."
 
Wildcard option here, but...

What if we intervened on the side of the Ashalla pact? Its not like they could turn around and say, "um, actually we can handle this" considering they've accused the Chrystovians of things the Federation takes a dim view on, while putting us in a position to subvert Cardassia subsuming the Chrystovians. We get our fleet in place, resolve the issues that caused the declaration of war and then give the Ashalla pact a nice big smile and a "That was a good job. Now that the situation has been resolved. Best we all go home now, don't you think?"

If we were better friends with the Chrystovians, they might trust us enough to play their parts in a stunt like that. Be we aren't and I don't think they would.
 
[X] We should intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

The Caardassian pretext for war is precisely that, a fabricated excuse to gain themselves another client race.
 
Do we have an option of responding with a fleet in being and then saying 'show us these atrocities withing 2 weeks or we defend them'? because that's what i want

Yes we do. But if they say "nuts" then it's a general war, and that fleet we sent in probably gets cut off and most of them die before we can reinforce.

Make no mistake, if we vote to intervene and the intervention falls into a general war, the ships we sent in to intervene are probably dead and it will be a matter of avenging them.
 
What an absolute mess. We're in an absolutely terrible position to go to war in terms of new ships, and I expect the Cardassians know that. They have their own intel reports, after all. Frankly, we've got a real issue with the member worlds also. Without the STO and the Apiata, we lose both a good chunk of Task Force Beyond and two of our key border forces. We're completely out of time to do anything other than a direct intervention, and a direct intervention is likely to end in disaster.

Can we replicate the willingness of both the HoH and the ISC to intervene in the future? I'm not at all certain that we can.

I'm going to have to think about this.
 
We literally cannot get the ships for an invasion force to the Chrystovians before the Pact is finished conquering them. They'd just go "Sure, we'll do it for you, thanks for the moral support, no need to get up."
It's not about entirely stopping them.

Its about inserting forces they can't reasonably object to to politically and socially attack the justification for their invasion at its base and leave them no justification to stay there.

Remove the fig leaf and you expose them as rabid Imperialists, which goes against their PR.
 
Can we replicate the willingness of both the HoH and the ISC to intervene in the future? I'm not at all certain that we can.

I suspect on the ISC's part they're always gonna be down to bash the fash and the only reason they're not already is they know they need our help if they want to win, while I feel like an unstated portion of the Harmony's motivation is that they could certainly secure their border with us and the minor races there while we're busy punching fascist lizards together, so if we decisively win that border conflict it's unlikely they'll be willing to help in the future.

It's not about entirely stopping them.

Its about inserting forces they can't reasonably object to to politically and socially attack the justification for their invasion at its base and leave them no justification to stay there.

Remove the fig leaf and you expose them as rabid Imperialists, which goes against their PR.

They're already publicly imperialists. They'll just take over anyway. I mean it's what they did to Bajor. I think the casus belli is mostly just them trolling us.
 
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...We could do it. With the Harmony of Horizon and the Interstellar Commonwealth onboard, we could take the Ashalla Pact. It wouldn't be pretty, and we would burn whole fleets of Federation starships in the process, but in 18 months we could launch truly stupid numbers of cheap Mirandas and bury Cardassia.

But the Cardassians will call any bluff, as they know their ships are ready to handle today's Starfleet and they can't afford to appear weak in the eyes of their populace and clients, not after making such lofty moral declarations.

[ ] We should not intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.
 
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Winged Grace

Amarkia

City of Rialen [pop:50,000]

Time: ???


Small.

That was, perhaps, the first word that might define the human. Short, the slightest person on the street. His nose sort of arced, almost like the beak of some great bird of prey. His clothes were simple, a worker's outfit, with a worked chain of iron and a cross on it, a man worked into the shape. Religious iconography, he supposed, a rarity now among the humans. His hair was long, though, and black as darkest, darkest pitch; his skin was weather worn and tan. Despite a slight chill he was without jacket or coat.

It was a small street he walked down, with buildings running up and down it.

He walked calmly, confidently, but ungracefully. In an Amarki city, among the blue skinned people, he stood out like a bolt crackling among the skies. Finally he stood before the door he looked for, and with unhesitating move opened it. Inside, he saw the elves speaking, roaring among themselves. The news was transmitted in a dozen different ways-- the spoon-heads were invading Chrystovan. Millions of souls, threatened by the aggression and power-hunger of the fascists come again.

It was scarcely a dive, certainly. The floors were bright carpet, the floors a sort of soothing blue; and yet the same energy abounded. No smoke filled the air, but it still seemed the same.

He cut through the crowd, that man made his way to a small table. A number of the Amarki were there, many clad in warlike garb, and they spoke harsh and dark, and their voices were deep as the rumbling of the Black Sea; but they stopped when they heard him.

"You going to fight the Cardassians?"

The bar's heart yet thumped around the. "Aye."

"You got space for an extra set of hands?"

"Aye, if they've a name."

"Jakub Nowak." He thrust his hand towards the Amarki, and the two shook.

"We've one last night before we go. Eat, drink, and pray if you will." The human nodded, seemingly oddly more relaxed than when he had come. "A question. Why?"

"Long memory." The human shrugged. "Short temper."
-
Fuck, I dunno just a thought I had. It's not very good, I know.

[X] We should intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

Fuck nazis. Especially Space Nazis.
 
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FYI, for people wondering at the reasons why it is so difficult to get ships there in time:

Chrystovia is 60 LY from Rethelia, the nearest member homeworld, but you have only a handful of ships there, and you'd be under observation the whole way.
Chrystovia is 130 LY from Earth - if you are willing to barge clear through Imelak and Cardassian space.
It is 180 LY to where the majority of your task forces are currently based in the HBZ

Warp Factor 9 is 729c - at this speed it is 90 days to get from the HBZ to Chrystovia, so anyone you send won't arrive until 2324.Q2.M1. The ships in the Rethelia sector could be there in a month ... but that's all.
 
There's also the problem of what to do after the war is over. With the ISC/Harmony dogpiling we'd bury them in ships but we might have to occupy them for years afterward. The ISC would probably stay and help with their overkill and make sure the threat is super dead philosophy but it's still going to tie up dozens of ships and there's still the corewards/rimwards clusterfucks to deal with.
 
Okay, so I'm looking at the numbers, and here's what needs to happen in order to make an intervention viable:

1. The HoH has to agree to a stop on the coreward border. Because they badly want to intervene, they should understand that intervention while keeping our our little diplomatic slapfight going represents a serious split focus and indeed, a lack of true commitment on their part.

2. The Council factions in favor of intervention need to be united in favor of intervention and in favor of punishing Cardassian action. In other words, the Pacifists, Hawk, and Expansionist parties need to close ranks. Between them, they have 36 out of 62 seats, a substantial majority. Out of the highlighted factions that might break along species lines, Tellar has 4 Development and 1 Pacifist, Vulcan has 4 Pacifist, 1 Development, and 1 Hawk, United Earth has 2 Development, 2 Hawk, 2 Expansionist, and 1 Pacifist, the STO has 2 Development, 3 Expansionist, 1 Hawk, and 1 Mercantile. Net, that means -7 votes if they all break along member lines, so 29 out of 62 seats. That means those United Earth and STO Councilors, and the Tellarite Pacifist hold the deciding votes, even with the Vulcans against.

3. We need to be able to take dettering action against Cardassia that isn't an invasion. Fortunately, we have a perfect place to do so: Bajor. If the Cardassians conquer Chrystovia and we respond by liberating Bajor, they've lost overall. Put that idea in their heads and that's our best chance of getting them to back down. Take action on that idea and at least we've made something good out of a shit situation (and triggered a horrific war, but principle, principles!). It's also viable because we can sell it to the public not as an invasion but as a liberation. We need to immediately get in with our affiliates the Bajoran Diaspora and get them more active in Council and especially in public lobbying, and to make it very public what we plan to do if the Cardassians continue their aggressive policies.


PRESUMING THOSE CONDITIONS, and also presuming that the Amarki relax the 25% rule, here's what I think we can muster:
4 Excelsior-A (3B)
2 Riala-A
1 Basillica of Lakhept
1 Constitution-B (B)
7 Renaissance
6 Centaur-B (2B)
2 Kepler
8 Anacail

Keep in mind this is all napkin work, not some idealized force composition, in an ideal world we'd be doing a shuffle through the sector fleets to ensure that ships arrive in time. I basically send the Apiata and STO ships home, broke up a few task forces, and filled in for the ships going home with unfederalized Rennies from the O4, and other ships from Rigel and Amarkia. The total force would be C154 H118 L167. This force would require the following portion of the Cardassian Union Navy:
1 Tolkor C9 H5 L9
8 Kaldar-II 7 5 6
8 Jaldun-II 556
8 Takaaki-Combat 433
4 Kapit-Courier 334
2 Kapit-Science 213
C153 H123 L151 - again, napkin work, okay? Don't pick nits here plz.

According to our latest reports, this leaves them with 30 Jaldun of both types, 4 Kaldar-II, 2 Lorgot, 11 Takaaki of all types, and 4 Kapit of all types. The big problem is the massive Jaldun fleet remaining, however this is their garrison fleet, so I suspect they may only be able to bring <12 Jaldun-class to bear on the Chrystovians, likely backed by the remaining Lorgot and Kaldar as those ships comprise the Cardassian mobile reserve. When we add in an ISC group and a HoH group, we have them.

The Task Forces that are maintained are:
8 ships on Beyond - again presumes significant drawdown is possible due to an agreement with the HoH
8 ships on Dreaming
9-10 ships on Royal
7-8 ships on Goodfoot - securing Ur'razzi cooperating is even more necessary with a possible war in the Bajoran corridor
This drops the Ittick-Ka task force and maintains the exact same sector garrison.

If we can pseudo-SOE it with appropriate Council legislation, we can commit a lot more force.
 
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Keep in mind this is all napkin work, not some idealized force composition, in an ideal world we'd be doing a shuffle through the sector fleets to ensure that ships arrive in time. I basically send the Apiata and STO ships home, broke up a few task forces, and filled in for the ships going home with unfederalized Rennies from the O4, and other ships from Rigel and Amarkia. The total force would be C154 H118 L167. This force would require the following portion of the Cardassian Union Navy:
1 Tolkor C9 H5 L9
8 Kaldar-II 7 5 6
8 Jaldun-II 556
8 Takaaki-Combat 433
4 Kapit-Courier 334
2 Kapit-Science 213
C153 H123 L151

According to our latest reports, this leaves them with 30 Jaldun of both types, 4 Kaldar-II, 2 Lorgot, 11 Takaaki of all types, and 4 Kapit of all types. The big problem is the massive Jaldun fleet remaining, however this is their garrison fleet, so I suspect they may only be able to bring <12 Jaldun-class to bear on the Chrystovians, likely backed by the remaining Lorgot and Kaldar as those ships comprise the Cardassian mobile reserve. When we add in an ISC group and a HoH group, we have them.
.

Point of order, that's the Cardassian Navy, not the Ashalla Pact Navy.

If they call in the Konen and the Goshwanar and the Imelek, shit gets real. And the Imelek are real close by!
 
And we'll also be looking at matching those forces from the ISC and HoH, plus that is nowhere near the total we can draw if given authorization. I also do not think that marshaling Ashalla Pact forces is "free" for the CU, it has a cost similar to ours, just not in paid in the same way. If the point is to show the potential cost to their conquest, then bringing in Pact forces is a net positive.

Sending a force to the Chrystovians isn't viable anyway, so I wouldn't call the Imelak "nearby" in a sense that matters more than any other Pact member.
 
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Point of order, that's the Cardassian Navy, not the Ashalla Pact Navy.

If they call in the Konen and the Goshwanar and the Imelek, shit gets real. And the Imelek are real close by!
Do we have any idea how large the wider Ashalla Pact navy even is? Our last real contacts with most of them were back in the Gabriel. If both the ISC and HoH can be brought in, or even just the HoH alone, that's at least 100 additional C, a lot of it in vanguard swarm ships, where we're weakest.

I've got to say though, looking at the map, I'm not at all sure we can pull this off. If a general war succeeds, we're likely to liberate the Chrystovians, but it won't change the fact that they're far closer to the Cardassians than they are to us. We'll end up with a massively exposed salient, running past the Imelak and Lecarre.

On a different note, I also find the Cardassian casus belli incredibly dubious. Simply, where the hell are the Chrystovians finding all these pre-warps to oppress? It's possible that there are about 10 pre-warps in every sector, but that's not the impression we've been given, and the Chrystovians are not exactly a large polity. It's also possible the Chrystovians have been ranging far and wide in their quest to catastrophically mess up pre-warp civilizations, but, in that case, how did the Cardassians hear about it? Pre-warp civilizations don't have subspace radio. Not like casus belli matters if the Chrystovians are conquered before we can even get a fleet together though.
 
Do we have any idea how large the wider Ashalla Pact navy even is? Our last real contacts with most of them were back in the Gabriel. If both the ISC and HoH can be brought in, or even just the HoH alone, that's at least 100 additional C, a lot of it in vanguard swarm ships, where we're weakest.

I've got to say though, looking at the map, I'm not at all sure we can pull this off. If a general war succeeds, we're likely to liberate the Chrystovians, but it won't change the fact that they're far closer to the Cardassians than they are to us. We'll end up with a massively exposed salient, running past the Imelak and Lecarre.

On a different note, I also find the Cardassian casus belli incredibly dubious. Simply, where the hell are the Chrystovians finding all these pre-warps to oppress? It's possible that there are about 10 pre-warps in every sector, but that's not the impression we've been given, and the Chrystovians are not exactly a large polity. It's also possible the Chrystovians have been ranging far and wide in their quest to catastrophically mess up pre-warp civilizations, but, in that case, how did the Cardassians hear about it? Pre-warp civilizations don't have subspace radio. Not like casus belli matters if the Chrystovians are conquered before we can even get a fleet together though.

I imagine, being scientists, that the Chrystovians keep detailed notes of their horrible research projects.
 
Also, this entire plan involves a lot of "presuming".

Presuming the HoH agrees to stop coreward diplomacy... and why should they? What are we going to do if they say that's ridiculous and they recognize no diplomatic "war".

Presuming the Council goes for this crazy "go for Bajor" plan, which is not at all what the pro-intervention forces want to hear. They are in for saving the Chrystovians, not "let the Chrystovians be conquered while we muster the forces to put the squeeze on Bajor". How the heck are we supposed to get the Basillica of Lakhept down to Bajor before the Cardassians have already overthrown Chrystovia and it's too late to put the yolk back in the broken egg no matter what we do Bajor-wise?


On a different note, I also find the Cardassian casus belli incredibly dubious. Simply, where the hell are the Chrystovians finding all these pre-warps to oppress? It's possible that there are about 10 pre-warps in every sector, but that's not the impression we've been given, and the Chrystovians are not exactly a large polity. It's also possible the Chrystovians have been ranging far and wide in their quest to catastrophically mess up pre-warp civilizations, but, in that case, how did the Cardassians hear about it? Pre-warp civilizations don't have subspace radio. Not like casus belli matters if the Chrystovians are conquered before we can even get a fleet together though.

I'm not going to get into defending the Cardassian casus belli, but I will say that there are lots of pre-warps in Federation sectors that we never hear about until something goes wrong and they become a Starfleet problem. It would not surprise me at all that there are indeed a dozen pre-warp civilizations within easy Crystovian reach.

Also, who says they on'y do one experiment per planet? In pre-industrial Earth you could do one sick social science in China and a different sick social science experiment in Europe and not much risk of interfering with each other.
 
Also, who says they on'y do one experiment per planet? In pre-industrial Earth you could do one sick social science in China and a different sick social science experiment in Europe and not much risk of interfering with each other.
You know it occurs to me it's very good that the Gaeni and Chrystovians are so far apart, because if they teamed up they'd absolutely do things like travel to Earth's past and change things so Industrialization happens in China. Then do it again and see if it can happen in India, etc.
 
*sigh*

Can't put out all fires.

[X] We should not intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.
 
Also, this entire plan involves a lot of "presuming".

Presuming the HoH agrees to stop coreward diplomacy... and why should they? What are we going to do if they say that's ridiculous and they recognize no diplomatic "war".

Presuming the Council goes for this crazy "go for Bajor" plan, which is not at all what the pro-intervention forces want to hear. They are in for saving the Chrystovians, not "let the Chrystovians be conquered while we muster the forces to put the squeeze on Bajor".
They recognize that we're both attempting to woo polities on the border through a significant contribution of both our fleets. To say otherwise would be to deny reality on their part. Since they are going to be operating in close concert with us, we can afford to be friendlier, can't we? De-escalating things with the HoH is a clear silver lining to any possible action on our part, and a clear prerequisite if they actually want their fleet donation to matter, which I believe they do. Also, I don't use the word "war" to describe the coreward situation, so don't scarequotes it please. As for the Council, as Okaar has made clear, we are constrained by realistic options, and the primary realistic option is the fleet in being strategy that the Admiral literally suggests:
You nod, "But we can assemble a sizable force, with support from some member fleets, along the border with Cardassia. If we can't shield Chrystovia, we could certainly threaten to hit back," you say. "It might make the Cardassians back down, and is easier to support."
Along with Council action if to turn the "bluff" into not a bluff after all, again, as the Admiral literally suggests. What I described was literally what we suggested IC to a clearly pro-intervention President.


How the heck are we supposed to get the Basillica of Lakhept down to Bajor before the Cardassians have already overthrown Chrystovia and it's too late to put the yolk back in the broken egg no matter what we do Bajor-wise?
No nitpicking. Draw another Riala instead or two cruisers. As I said already, this is a napkin math plan, to approximate the fleet we can send. A real deployment of a significant force would be a shuffle to get ships to the front in time.
 
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[X] We should not intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

We specifically made a choice that we couldn't afford to lay the groundwork, explicitly to avoid getting drawn into a war. We made our choice a long while ago.
 
[X] We should not intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

My heart says do it, but the practicalities are not there. So I'm going to put on my Vulcan ears an say it is not logical.
 
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