Making the agreed-upon edits, from before I had to go AFK for three hours.
First, approval voting all plans with conversion carriers.
[X] Plan By Apollo and Poseidon
did it
first hours before I joined the discussion, but after subsequent discussion a number of other plans adopted the merchantman conversion.
These include
[X] Plan: Starting our Strategic Area Defence Networks and giving the Navy Hulls
[X] Plan Second Vanguard, delaying Karchi, balsa flattops
[X] Plan No Develop, Only Deploy
and others later after still
further very energetic discussion, which are being supported in:
[X] Plan We Need More Ships
by
@doruma1920 (shout-out to Doruma for strong support of the conversion carriers!)
There is also
[X] Plan One Step Forward
Now, I must note that
@Derpmind 's version of the plan gives the conversion carriers only a 23% chance to complete as a project this turn, but I promised her (and everyone) that I would approval vote
EVERY plan with merchant conversion carriers, and it's clear that Derpmind did this as a good faith attempt to compromise on an issue I care a lot about, so I'm not going to disrespect that. My plan has
more conversion carrier, but hers does legit have conversion carriers.
This plan differs from my
old version as follows:
1) Due to errors on my part, I misread the cost of Nuuk (because the QM changed his mind about something I'd been told by third parties would be true, and I didn't notice it had changed) and made some other arithmetic errors. Once all these errors were tallied...
2) I had to delete the Services development of hallucinogens, something I only added because I had free Service dice left over and
thought I had budget for.
3) I had two unallocated dice in the Military category and 20 R to do something with them. After some discussion, i decided to:
3a) Develop the Mastodon assault walker prototype for the Steel Talons, and
3b) Spend one die developing plasma missiles for the Air Force.
Notably, I have a bit of a problem in that I don't consider the 64% chance associated with
four dice on the Melbourne yard to be sufficient, owing to the urgent need for more hulls which will only grow more urgent over time.
Regardless of whether we build Karachi Planned City, we will take losses to our surface combatant force and the supply of available surface combatants will become pretty fucking dire over the course of the war, as it already
was dire before the war. Thus, there is considerable urgency in getting at least a
trickle of reinforcements into the water. I plan to be somewhat less profligate in my dice spending on shipyards after this one, settling for more like a50-60% chance of completion and then slow-walking, after we have at least done
something to address the relevant problem. I had originally used an AA die to 'round out' the chance of the yard completing to about 83%, but I now find myself feeling like it would be better to use that AA die for the Mastodon (likely to complete anyway) and swap it out for a Military die.
...
Ahem, anyway.
965/965 R
7/7 Free dice
VERY CONSERVATIVE ENERGY BUDGET
+9 (Existing Surplus) + 16 (Fusion Phase 5)
-1 (Medical Supplies) -1 (Freeze Drying) -2 (Dandong) -2 (Porto) -4 (Apollo backup dancer bots) - 6 (Angry Australian Frigates) -1 (Plasma Missiles)
End Result: +8 surplus, well positioned to slam out
another phase of fusion plants plus Reykjavik for +18 more in Q3
CONSERVATIVE CAPITAL GOODS BUDGET
+17 (Existing Surplus) +2 (Enterprise) -2 (Operating Theaters) -1 (Apollo backup dancer bots) -2 (Angry Australian frigates)
End Result: +14 Surplus, well positioned to slam out Nuuk Phase 3 and Reykjavik for +18 more Goods in Q3
[X] Plan I Refuse To Give Up On Karachi Yet
Infrastructure 6/6 Dice 105 R
-[X] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 4+5) 232/550 (2 Dice, 40 R) (Phase 4, 2/3.5 median on Phase 5)
-[X] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 3) 159/300 (3 Dice, 45 R) (99% chance; 3/5.5 median to Phase 4)
-[X] Tick Rapid Digger System Development 0/40 (1 Die, 20 R) (100% chance)
Heavy Industry 5/5 Dice + 3 Free Dice 180 R
-[X] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 5+6) 232/600 (4 Dice, 80 R) (~100% chance Phase 5, 28% chance of Phase 6)
-[X] Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry (Phase 3) 118/600 (3 Dice, 60 R) (3/6 median)
-[X] Isolinear Chip Development (1 Die, 40 R) (90% chance)
Light and Chemical Industry 5/5 Dice 100 R
-[X] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 4) 378/640 (2 Dice, 40 R) (17% chance)
-[X] Medical Supplies Factories 0/225 (3 Dice, 60 R) (60% chance)
Agriculture 4/4 Dice 50 R
-[X] Freeze Dried Food Plants 73/200 (1 Die, 20 R) (13% chance)
-[X] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 2+3) 3/280 (3 Dice, 30 R) (98% chance of Phase 2, 23% chance of Phase 3)
Tiberium 7/7 Dice 115 R
-[X] Yellow Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Phase 7) 183/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (97% chance)
-[X] Chicago Planned City 3/600 (2 Dice, 40 R) (2/6.5 median)
-[X] Railgun Harvester Factory (Dandong) 45/70 (1 Die, 10 R) (~100% chance)
-[X] Railgun Harvester Factory (Porto) 0/70 (1 Die, 10 R) (85% chance)
-[X] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 5+6) 63/200 (1 Die, 15 R) (Stage 5, 18% chance of Stage 6)
Orbital 6/6 Dice 110 R
-[X] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 4) 456/765 (5 Dice, 100 R) (96.5% chance, median outcome 114/1535 to Phase 5)
-[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 9) 41/85 (1 Die, 10 R) (98% chance, 13% chance of Stage 10)
Services 3/5 Dice 40 R
-[X] Neural Interfaced Operating Theaters 0/160 (2 Dice, 40 R) (60% chance)
Military 8/8 Dice + 4 Free Dice + 2 AA Dice 265 R
-[X] Apollo Wingmen Drones 0/210 (3 Dice, 60 R) (75% chance)
-[X] Plasma Warhead Factory (Phase 1) 0/90 (1 Die, 10 R) (52% chance)
-[X] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Melbourne) (5 Dice, 100 R) (93% chance)
-[X] Merchantman Carrier Conversions (High Commitment) 0/200 (3 Dice, 60 R) (81% chance)
-[X] Neural Interface System Refits (Talons) 83/105 (AA Die, 25 R) (94% chance)
-[X] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Development 0/30 (AA Die, 10 R) (86% chance)
Bureaucracy 4/4 Dice
-[X] Administrative Assistance x2 (4 Dice)
