So we can carry (and currently have) a maximum of two weeks food.
If we carry on: one week sees us to Karak Dum. That gives us one week of food left and a four week journey home. If we're lucky, we can resupply at Dum, so we have two weeks of food again. That leaves us two weeks away from Kislev with no food, so we'll probably have to hunt or trade with the locals—but we don't know if that's possible because, you know, the locals are likely to be hostile. Still, we have a rapport with the Dolgan, so we could pay them to keep the other tribes of our back and ease our food worries (although we'll only be able to buy what we can carry).
If we're unlucky, we hang around Dum for a week, and have to leave in haste with no food and a horde of refugees, forcing us to scavenge on the run for at least an entire month in hostile territory whilst travelling at a snails pace.
If we turn back: mission failed, moral drops, Borek's mental health dives off the same cliff that killed Gotrek, and we owe a debt to the ice witches because we never found their fancy murder cup. Two weeks of food carries us two thirds of the way to Kislev, leaving us to hunt for food in relatively safe terrain. Possible resupply at Uzkulak and Vlag, but that shouldn't be counted upon (and means having to reopen the Uzkulak can of worms again).
Turning back feels like the safe and sensible option—our logistics capacity to carry on has been crippled. But it feels really, really unsatisfying. We put all this effort and energy into the success of this expedition, and boom, all down the drain due to a natural disaster.
And honestly, there are some options—trade, hunting, Dum having a full larder we can pillage. The biggest issue is carrying capacity. If we press on, we need to successfully resupply at least two times (once at Dum, once in Kurgan territory), but maybe three or four times depending on how fast we travel and the number of refugees we have. If we head back, we only need to resupply once.
Ughhh, I really want to carry on, but it feels like sunk cost fallacy to do so. Like, yeah, we can hunt and trade—but we have to roll the dice to see if we can successfully resupply each time, and making one roll home instead of an unknown number of rolls there and back again feels safer. But there's also the psychological effects of turning back.
Damn it, damn it, damn it. I'm letting my emotional side over take my logical side. It's a risk, but it's a risk we signed up for. There are options and opportunities to resupply—risky ones, but they are there. And I'm confident that Mathilde can get back on her own—although she likely won't attempt that until everyone else is dead. Two successful resupply rolls, once at Dum, once in Kurgan territory. That's the minimum we need to succeed.
[X] Press on
If we carry on: one week sees us to Karak Dum. That gives us one week of food left and a four week journey home. If we're lucky, we can resupply at Dum, so we have two weeks of food again. That leaves us two weeks away from Kislev with no food, so we'll probably have to hunt or trade with the locals—but we don't know if that's possible because, you know, the locals are likely to be hostile. Still, we have a rapport with the Dolgan, so we could pay them to keep the other tribes of our back and ease our food worries (although we'll only be able to buy what we can carry).
If we're unlucky, we hang around Dum for a week, and have to leave in haste with no food and a horde of refugees, forcing us to scavenge on the run for at least an entire month in hostile territory whilst travelling at a snails pace.
If we turn back: mission failed, moral drops, Borek's mental health dives off the same cliff that killed Gotrek, and we owe a debt to the ice witches because we never found their fancy murder cup. Two weeks of food carries us two thirds of the way to Kislev, leaving us to hunt for food in relatively safe terrain. Possible resupply at Uzkulak and Vlag, but that shouldn't be counted upon (and means having to reopen the Uzkulak can of worms again).
Turning back feels like the safe and sensible option—our logistics capacity to carry on has been crippled. But it feels really, really unsatisfying. We put all this effort and energy into the success of this expedition, and boom, all down the drain due to a natural disaster.
And honestly, there are some options—trade, hunting, Dum having a full larder we can pillage. The biggest issue is carrying capacity. If we press on, we need to successfully resupply at least two times (once at Dum, once in Kurgan territory), but maybe three or four times depending on how fast we travel and the number of refugees we have. If we head back, we only need to resupply once.
Ughhh, I really want to carry on, but it feels like sunk cost fallacy to do so. Like, yeah, we can hunt and trade—but we have to roll the dice to see if we can successfully resupply each time, and making one roll home instead of an unknown number of rolls there and back again feels safer. But there's also the psychological effects of turning back.
Damn it, damn it, damn it. I'm letting my emotional side over take my logical side. It's a risk, but it's a risk we signed up for. There are options and opportunities to resupply—risky ones, but they are there. And I'm confident that Mathilde can get back on her own—although she likely won't attempt that until everyone else is dead. Two successful resupply rolls, once at Dum, once in Kurgan territory. That's the minimum we need to succeed.
[X] Press on
