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Why would this hypothetical framer use warpstone infused gunpowder at all, though? If they were human they'd just use regular gunpowder, which would work fine (if it's slightly less effective just use more of it) unless they were trying to frame the Skaven. But your theory of the framejob is that they're trying to frame Marienburg. So why go to all the trouble of getting illegal warpstone infused gunpowder? It doesn't fit.
Regular gunpowder would not necessarily work fine. Remember what Max said:
"It's a matter of conditions," he says, leafing through his notes. "You know the Colleges, 'assume a perfectly spherical ball of Chamon in a magically inert plain' and all that. Skaven engineering doesn't work that way, at least not the stuff that ends up widely used. They assume that their equipment is going to be poorly maintained and stored in the damp by incompetents before it's dragged onto a battlefield, and often intersperse their notes with extended rants on the subject. That's what the warpstone is for. When used with a warplock trigger mechanism it makes for a much more reliable means of ignition than a snaphance or a flintlock, and even with mundane mechanisms, finely-ground warpstone is ignitable, and detonates hard. So if the blackpowder is damp it still works as long as any of it is dry enough to ignite, because that sets off the warpstone which forces even wet powder to ignite, and makes it go off all at once instead of in a wave. So for a relatively small amount of warpstone, you get a more reliable ignition and a more efficient explosion than blackpowder on its own."
This was an explosive aimed below the waterline. Dry conditions could not be assumed. Normal gunpowder might not work at all, but warpstone ensures that it definitely goes up in a boom.

The barrel, firearms, and bandits (when they're found) are bits of evidence that might be assumed to be found. The fact that the explosion involved Dhar is not something they could have assumed to have been found.
Lurking inside the wood pulp is the very faintest touch of Dhar.
"The very faintest touch of Dhar," visible only after the water drained out of the ship, is not the sort of thing you use to frame people with. You leave your clues in obvious places.
 
I think it was the skaven. They are one of the few people capable of knowing the week points of a monitor. The barrel of skaven powder hit in the right spot to cause the most damage. On top of that the ships was locked upped. During normal times the doors would be open to allow air and dawi to move about freely but they were locked lined someone was trying to kill the most dawi they could.
 
because it has a bigger oomph, and it's already being sold, once you have decided to take on a dwarf monitor it makes sense that you are going all out, or vice versa, you are hired to disrupt dwarfs and are offered this cool super powder on your way there and think "oh this is so powerful it could blow right through the plating of a monitor, wait there's an idea..."
Bigger oomph per pound isn't really a factor; you can just use more regular, far cheaper, and legally available blackpowder instead.

Going to the trouble of going to the black market and paying way more so you can slightly decrease the size of the bomb doesn't make a lot of sense. People don't do that. The only reason I can think of to go to all that trouble is to cast suspicion on the Skaven.
 
In a pinch, if we're facing an urgent need to flee we can probably use it for a shorter period (1 hour) to help us speed away or get across a significant obstacles.
No, it only works during those specific hours.

If it were just a limited duration, it wouldn't be bad. But it's a limited duration during a specific timeframe.

If we are in a pinch during lunchtime, then the spell doesn't matter at all.

We have one and a half to two hours during dawn, and the same during dusk. That's it. 6-7 AM and 6-7 PM, maybe a few more minutes depending on latitude and time of year.

That's barely working, much less good enough. Outside those very narrow timeframes, the spell might as well not exist.
 
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The thing about this being an attempt to frame the Skaven is that pointing to them deliberately would require knowing a) Mathilde has windsight good enough to notice the traces of Dhar in the hole blasted open and b) Mathilde would definitely be there to use that windsight to pick up the Clue. There are many parties who could deduce the likelihood of b), but the only parties who could realistically know about a) are either K8P wizards or Dawi, or high up in Imperial Intelligence or the Gray College and therefor not willing to hurt Dawi like this in defiance of holy writ, no siree, and it's definitely not Mathilde's divided loyalties informing that conclusion...
 
This was an explosive aimed below the waterline. Dry conditions could not be assumed. Normal gunpowder might not work at all, but warpstone ensures that it definitely goes up in a boom.
The powder was in a barrel. They're waterproof. Water contamination of the powder wasn't an issue.

The thing about this being an attempt to frame the Skaven is that pointing to them deliberately would require knowing a) Mathilde has windsight good enough to notice the traces of Dhar in the hole blasted open and b) Mathilde would definitely be there to use that windsight to pick up the Clue. There are many parties who could deduce the likelihood of b), but the only parties who could realistically know about a) are either K8P wizards or Dawi, or high up in Imperial Intelligence or the Gray College and therefor not willing to hurt Dawi like this in defiance of holy writ, no siree, and it's definitely not Mathilde's divided loyalties informing that conclusion...
They might not have known how difficult it would be to tell that warpstone was involved. They might have just assumed the Dwarves would have a way to know.
 
I'd rather not do the overwork, and I'm leaning towards inconclusive. Mathilde should at least advise that they delay any response until after the investigation into Ubersreik's black powder black market is done. The original source of the barrel and bullet don't mean too much given the nature of commerce. Whether or not the "special" Ubersreik black powder has certain proscribed additives will determine whether it was plausibly not the Skaven at all.

Revenge is a dish best served cold. Better to wait a while than to declare a Grudge on the wrong group.
 
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I think we can safely rule out framejob; the whole point of a framejob is to create a clear culprit. Using warpstone infused gunpowder in a situation that points to Marienburg is too ambiguous. The hypothetical framer wouldn't know which way the Dwarves would jump, Marienburg or Skaven.
By word of QM, Marienburg will automatically be assumed to be the culprit, because they have the best motive. So in this case leaving incrimatory evidence is unnecessary.
Current events and tensions have made it so that anything targeting shipping on the Skull River is automatically attributable to Marienburg unless proven otherwise, because that's one of the two supply pipelines for the canal construction
 
Yeah, Occam's Razor- dwarf ship goes KABOOM, dwarves mad, blame Marienburg, WAR. There, cunning master plan.
It sounds logical on the face of it... Except that knowing that Marienburg is starting trouble in the area isn't actually a given. We believe the Marienburgers are funding banditry in the region because they're upset about the canal, but we've never actually gotten any concrete proof of it except for significant statistical upticks in activity, and the dwarves didn't even notice the potential for foul play in the canal working humans getting sick.

Hypothetically, the entire thing could have been Skaven from the start, if you're not too read up on Marienburger politics. What's obvious for us isn't necessarily nearly so obvious for others.

To put that another way, Marienburg is trying the 'no, honest, it's just bandits' thing because they think it's believable. The actual situation is that it's not, but they're not dropping the pretense for a reason. I postulate that this is an extension of that.
 
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For the record, while I am leaning towards Marienburg, the evidence isn't enough to go to war on. I'd advise Belegar that Dwarven shipping should be on the lookout for future attempted attacks, but not act yet.
 
I don't think you understand what a barrel in this sort of setting looks like.
Coopers in the middle ages did amazing work. They were truly and genuinely waterproof. They had to be to contain liquids, after all, which was what they were frequently used for. A barrel that leaked would be useless for storing something for any length of time.

There were several methods used in parallel that added up to make barrels watertight. One of the cleverest is that the wood itself would swell in the presence of water (or wine, or beer) to seal tight any tiny imperfections in the fitting of the staves.
 
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[ ] The evidence is inconclusive

Yeah, lookibg at the evidence again, it really could be anyone here. Best to err on the side of caution. We don't want a wrong Grudge happening. It could stir up a lot of shit storm, like seriously, the last time it happened, it kicked up the War of Vengeance.
 
Thinking in terms of "the spell works from 6 to 7:30 and from 17:30 to 19, and only then", which is the reality of it, paints a really rather different picture than "a few hours a day".

Need it during business hours? Tough luck.
 
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Quick question. As always I'm behind the chat, but I assume that the Okral's departure was fairly common knowledge. Marienburg would have had to fail their gossip roll pretty severely in order to mistake this for a supply convoy?
 
Barrels have to be reasonably waterproof, because they are used to store liquids.
There's "reasonably waterproof" and there's "doesn't have any liquid soak through the wood while in a raging river". Most barrels will be made for the former, the latter is extremely difficult to achieve.

Getting the special gunpowder that works when wet is certainly reasonable when you're planning to use it in said raging river.
 
Bigger oomph per pound isn't really a factor; you can just use more regular, far cheaper, and legally available blackpowder instead.

Going to the trouble of going to the black market and paying way more so you can slightly decrease the size of the bomb doesn't make a lot of sense. People don't do that. The only reason I can think of to go to all that trouble is to cast suspicion on the Skaven.
I have already explained my logic, the monitor is a big target and the kind of thing you would only go for if you think you have a good shot, like for example after getting a new more powerful powder that works underwater.

The Skaven are unlikely for others reasons already explained, Including the use of musket fire.

for it to be Skaven they would need to :

Want to frame someone else, yet use their own gunpowder despite stealing the rest of the components, use musket fire that could expose them and then leave potential witnesses behind, go out of their way to acquire materials in an area that recently got outside their influence and in which Skaven powder is still accesible. the only way it could be Skaven is if it actually was a Skaven clan doing a shoddy job of framing another Skaven clan for doing a frame job.
 
The thing I don't like about "The evidence is inconclusive" is that if the rest of the investigation returns some Big Dumb Obvious Clues that Marienburg did it, the logical result of "we have some big obvious clues that Marienburg did it" and "anyone might have done it" is "Marienburg did it." And I just don't think that's as likely as a framejob.
There's "reasonably waterproof" and there's "doesn't have any liquid soak through the wood while in a raging river". Most barrels will be made for the former, the latter is extremely difficult to achieve.

Getting the special gunpowder that works when wet is certainly reasonable when you're planning to use it in said raging river.
Precisely.
No, it only works during those specific hours.

If it were just a limited duration, it wouldn't be bad. But it's a limited duration during a specific timeframe.

If we are in a pinch during lunchtime, then the spell doesn't matter at all.

We have one and a half to two hours during dawn, and the same during dusk. That's it. 6-7 AM and 6-7 PM, maybe a few more minutes depending on latitude and time of year.
@BoneyM, is this correct? I think so, but it's a bit ambiguous in the text.
 
Thinking about it, there's a very strong chance of "got the powder that'll work underwater - we'll blow it up under the dwarven ship, and then take potshots while the crew are confused - they'll have to go to the bank to check on the damage" rather than any expectation of the ship actually sinking.
 
I think it was the skaven. They are one of the few people capable of knowing the week points of a monitor. The barrel of skaven powder hit in the right spot to cause the most damage. On top of that the ships was locked upped. During normal times the doors would be open to allow air and dawi to move about freely but they were locked lined someone was trying to kill the most dawi they could.
It wasn't a weak spot for the monitor, it was a weak spot for ships in general.
 
There's "reasonably waterproof" and there's "doesn't have any liquid soak through the wood while in a raging river". Most barrels will be made for the former, the latter is extremely difficult to achieve.
You're assuming that medieval craftsmanship was shoddy. It wasn't. Barrels intended for wet storage could be immersed in water for years without leakage. Eventually the iron bands would rust and the wood would rot, but they'd be okay until then.
 
Caught up. Re: Fog Path - I believe a -10 to rolls when we're back is a great price to pay for another chance to roll the dice on improving Fog Path, and will be campaigning to get people to spend the overwork.

Re: The culprit, here's what the enemy expected us to know and what we actually know:

The Explosive
-Expected: The Barrel was of human make. // Actual: The hogshead barrel was made in Morlenfurt, Reikland.
-Expected: The Barrel was suspended by a rope held by someone and a tree, and exploded on impact. // Actual: Same, plus the Barrel contained Warpstone Powder.

The Ambush:
-Expected: The ship was shot at by human-make muskets by hired patsys. // Actual: The musket shots came from Kreutzhofen, Wissenland.

With just the evidence available to the dwarfs, the immediate assumption would be Marienburg, with no evidence against. So if it was Marienburg, it was very poorly done with no attempts to obfuscate, which seems very uncharacteristic of Marienburg since they don't actually want a massive Dwarf Army knocking their city over.

It's probably not Skaven, since while they have the Warpstone Powder, they likely wouldn't source the barrel and shot from the places we know they're from, since their presence in Reikland and Wissenland got hit hard.

If it's a frame-job on Marienburg not executed by the Skaven, then the most likely suspects are either the Druchii (who would love to embroil the Karaz Ankor and Ulthuan into another war and have the Skaven contacts to get the powder) or the Empire (where revanchist elements might want to goad the Dwarves into softening Marienburg for them.)

So that's my initial conclusion: It's either a frame-job on Marienburg done by the Dark Elves or Empire, or Marienburg being extra incompetent in their attacks.
 
Even assuming the spell is limited to those hours of day it's a heck of a boost to the expeditions mobility over rough terrain and means instead of being incredibly slow for multiple days at a time they have to wait until a specific time of day to regain full strategic mobility and reaching non-rough terrain in the next two hours. Given that's somewhere in the region of 5-6 miles I think that's pretty reasonable.
 
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