Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

[Blackshard]

I'd rather not do the overwork, and I'm leaning towards inconclusive. Mathilde should at least advise that they delay any response until after the investigation into Ubersreik's black powder black market is done. The original source of the barrel and bullet don't mean too much given the nature of commerce. Whether or not the "special" Ubersreik black powder has certain proscribed additives will determine whether it was plausibly not the Skaven at all.

Revenge is a dish best served cold. Better to wait a while than to declare a Grudge on the wrong group.

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I don't buy it. It doesn't seem plausible that a human dabbler could get a warpstone trigger to work so effectively. That means that the weapon was Skaven-sourced, even if someone else used it. Other Chaos factions could've also done this, true, but we don't have any evidence that they were involved.

So either this was a Skaven plan through-and-through... or Marienburg hired someone who bought weapons from the Skaven. Either way, the Skaven have a paw in this. Frame-job is also possible, on the assumption that the Skaven think we don't know enough about them to suspect their involvement, but I don't see any plausible sequence of events that doesn't boil down to the Skaven having some blame for this.

 

[kingreaper]

You're assuming that medieval craftsmanship was shoddy. It wasn't. Barrels intended for wet storage could be immersed in water for years without leakage.

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Raging river. There's a very big difference between constant all-around pressure and being knocked about by the water.

Take your standard waterproof barrel. Now punch it half a dozen times. Not so perfectly waterproof anymore!

 

[BeepSmile]

Thinking in terms of "the spell works from 6 to 7 and from 18 to 19, and only then", which is the reality of it, paints a really rather different picture than "a few hours a day".

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I'm fallen strongly in favor of overwork on this choice, but that is not quite my read:

It's... not bad. Not great, but not bad. If you stuck to the few hours around dawn and dusk, you could probably maintain the spell for three or four hours a day without pushing yourself, as many as six if the weather cooperates. That's certainly a lot better than nothing, but is it enough?

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My takeaway from this is that the spell could be cast around noon/midnight and have it last for

Basically, I take this to mean that the spell will work at noon and midnight, but only for around twenty minutes (up to a max of an hour.) So I think you are incorrect in your reading, but in practical terms , in the context of the expedition; the conclusion ("spell is no good outside of dawn/dusk") is correct

Especially since it can be assumed that we will have already cast the spell around dawn each day for "half that day's maximum cast time", so if shit happens, the noon/midnight times can be considered to be half the theoretical maximum.

 

[SpaceSloth]

"The Frurndar have weapons that strike below the waterline. We've begun armouring against it, but..." He shrugs. "You can only put so much weight on a ship. More steel below the waterline means less above it. The Slotchokri were thought to never need to protect against more than an errant boulder."

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Dead wood retains these properties to an extent, so prolonged exposure can leave a mark. You wouldn't be surprised to see Ghyran from the river or Shyish from the dead Dwarves in the pulp, but you're not seeing that. Lurking inside the wood pulp is the very faintest touch of Dhar.

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I don't think it was Marienburg.

1) The culprit needed to know about specific weak point of dwarven river ships.
2) The gunpowder being made out warpstone would be unnoticable to basically anyone but Mathilde, so it should not be used as someone trying to blame skaven.
3) If Marienburg for some reasone decided to make bomb out of warpstone gunpowder that they got from Ubersreik it would be likely much worse quality.
4) If they have contacts among skaven, why not just buy some skaven made bomb, or better yet why not hire Clan Eshin ?

 

[Humbaba]

No, it only works during those specific hours.

If it were just a limited duration, it wouldn't be bad. But it's a limited duration during a specific timeframe.

If we are in a pinch during lunchtime, then the spell doesn't matter at all.

We have one and a half to two hours during dawn, and the same during dusk. That's it. 6-7 AM and 6-7 PM, maybe a few more minutes depending on latitude and time of year.

That's barely working, much less good enough. Outside those very narrow timeframes, the spell might as well not exist.

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That is not what the update says.

It's... not bad. Not great, but not bad. If you stuck to the few hours around dawn and dusk, you could probably maintain the spell for three or four hours a day without pushing yourself, as many as six if the weather cooperates. That's certainly a lot better than nothing, but is it enough? You know you're capable of better, but as you eye the calendar, you're not certain if you can do better before it's time to leave. And it would mean a lot of late nights and early mornings to even try.

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This says it is much easier to maintain at dusk and dawn, and that for the best results Mathilde will restrict her casting to those times to get the best strategic speed rather than strain herself with other times. But there is nothing implying that she cannot cast it outside those times. It will just strain her more and she won't be able to maintain it for too long.

Edit It can still be used for emergencies at other times.

 

[das_slash]

With just the evidence available to the dwarfs, the immediate assumption would be Marienburg, with no evidence against. So if it was Marienburg, it was very poorly done with no attempts to obfuscate, which seems very uncharacteristic of Marienburg since they don't actually want a massive Dwarf Army knocking their city over.

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Counterpoint: Marienburg is already invested in a trade war against the dwarfs and the empire regarding the river trade, but they don't have the ability to directly project power, they just have large coffers and mercenary armies to execute their will.

it benefits Marienburg and it a shoddy job really screams human mercenaries to me.
they probably didn't expect mercenaries to go after a monitor like that, which they likely wouldn't do, unless they had access to a cool new bomb.

 

[Angelform]

It does not go well.

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Succinct.

While technically functional it could be so much better. We can eat one turn of -10, particularly as it is likely to be something of a breather turn after the expedition.

Johann and Max

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Fascinating info. Also amusing that they both complain about their conventionally/previously impossible task not being convenient and easy.

the Hochlander

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Here we see the power of delegating a task not to a single hero unit but to an organisation. The Hochlander, our EIC network, his Witch Hunter contacts and allies from friendly networks all working together to do what no Lord Magister could hope to accomplish in the same time.

Ultimately our evidence is inconclusive. We would need another turn to follow the leads we have uncovered. And I suspect the Dwarf investigations, along with the Imperial one(s) will be chasing down those leads.
I say turn our findings over to the other investigators without prejudicing them.

 

[TaliesinSkye]

Raging river. There's a very big difference between constant all-around pressure and being knocked about by the water.

Take your standard waterproof barrel. Now punch it half a dozen times. Not so perfectly waterproof anymore!

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Barrels are very strong, especially one as large as a hogshead. The staves, which are /thick/, all reinforce one another to resist impact thanks to the way they're fitted together. Each one is shaped like the keystone of an arch to prevent it from pressing inwards. You'd have trouble breaking the seal with a hammer and a lot of time. Water doesn't have a chance. A raging current would just push the whole barrel around.

Please, unless you've handled a traditionally made wooden barrel stop assuming they're crap. They're far from it. They're impressive pieces of engineering.

 

[Varano]

[X] Push on and try to improve the spell

[X] The evidence points to a framejob

 

[LightLan]

While we could argue about specifics a lot, the truth of the matter is: We don't know.
Time to tell him that and tell him what we know, so he can combine that information with the other investigations.
[ ] The evidence is inconclusive

a -10 is worth the attempt to improve what we got.
[ ] Push on and try to improve the spell

 

[TotallyNotEvil]

If you used it outside those windows you could manage perhaps an hour, and would exhaust yourself in the process.

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Supposing we used it for two hours during dawn and it's now lunch time. Would we have, say twenty minutes~half an hour of Fog Path before being tuckered out then?

 

[das_slash]

I don't think it was Marienburg.

1) The culprit needed to know about specific weak point of dwarven river ships.
2) The gunpowder being made out warpstone would be unnoticable to basically anyone but Mathilde, so it should not be used as someone trying to blame skaven.
3) If Marienburg for some reasone decided to make bomb out of warpstone gunpowder that they got from Ubersreik it would be likely much worse quality.
4) If they have contacts among skaven, why not just buy some skaven made bomb, or better yet why not hire Clan Eshin ?

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1) weak point for ships in general, not just monitors.
2)yeah, but how does this affect the Marienburg theory?
3)why? it was literally just gunpowder in a barrel.
4)no contacts needed if the powder is being sold in the black market.

 

[Boney]

Supposing we used it for two hours during dawn and it's now lunch time. Would we have, say twenty minutes~half an hour of Fog Path before being tuckered out then?

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About that.

 

[The Phoenixian]

If you used it outside those windows you could manage perhaps an hour, and would exhaust yourself in the process.

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So, in other words I think the big question then is in "Okay, can we get an expedition over today's obstacles in an hour or less at any time or four hours in the evening and morning?"

 

[Redshirt Army]

Thinking about it some more... would the Druchii really use Warpstone Powder, in the hypothetical scenario where they were the ones doing the frame job? In this scenario they've already gone out of their way to get Empire-sourced equipment to sell the effect, so wouldn't using two barrels of normal empire Black Powder be the natural approach?

...I think it's the Empire, guys. Stares at the title.

 

[das_slash]

Thinking about it some more... would the Druchii really use Warpstone Powder, in the hypothetical scenario where they were the ones doing the frame job? In this scenario they've already gone out of their way to get Empire-sourced equipment to sell the effect, so wouldn't using two barrels of normal empire Black Powder be the natural approach?

...I think it's the Empire, guys. Stares at the title.

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In case this is not a only a joke, the likely answer is human mercenaries working near the empire, pointing to Marienburg.

 

[Jyn Ryvia]

The more I think about it, the more I think we should vote it a frame job over inconclusive.

the reason is the other investigations.

if we think it might not be Marienburg, we need to say that in case one of the other investigators points at them and say 'they did it.'

If we think there is reasonable doubt, we need to say so or not be surprised if they get pegged as guilty anyways becuse someone else says they did.

 

[BeepSmile]

Thinking about it some more... would the Druchii really use Warpstone Powder, in the hypothetical scenario where they were the ones doing the frame job? In this scenario they've already gone out of their way to get Empire-sourced equipment to sell the effect, so wouldn't using two barrels of normal empire Black Powder be the natural approach?

...I think it's the Empire, guys. Stares at the title.

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Warpstone Powder is more reliable as a trigger, and more explosive (easier to move and carry and hide a smaller mine than a big one) and they can just make some slave grind the stuff up.
(I'm also seriously considering parts of the Empire. Articles of Magic demand that we protecc the Empire's relationship with the dwarves tho (Empire is fucked if the Dwarves cut ties), so if it is a part of the Empire we grab 'em and hurl the ones responsible under the bus)

The more I think about it, the more I think we should vote it a frame job over inconclusive.

the reason is the other investigations.

if we think it might not be Marienburg, we need to say that in case one of the other investigators points at them and say 'they did it.'

If we think there is reasonable doubt, we need to say so or not be surprised if they get pegged as guilty anyways because someone else says they did.

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I'm assuming the Mathilde will do the sensible thing like write down the facts she has on this matter and give those to Belegar when giving her analysis and conclusion so he can pass those on to the other investigators in case the combined information sets allows a more confident conclusion to be reached. As such, I think we should vote for what we believe to be the case and assume that the people that are being brought in are competent and value accuracy.

 

[B_omega]

Why are people not seeing that this is obviously a Dark Elven job trying to frame either Skaven or elven human allies and drag the continent into a world war?

But to be serious, we need more data and more time to investigate.. unless we found irrefutable fact, all of these evidence are circumstansial.


I think we need to use eic spies. Or see the report from the footsteps found in the ambush site.


Lets assume whomever did this hired some disposable mercs, then those mercs must have gone somewhere to spend their money after getting paid.

 

[Gingganz]

Raging river. There's a very big difference between constant all-around pressure and being knocked about by the water.

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From where do you get raging river? It is fast-flowing, sure, but it is also calm enough for ship traffic, otherwise the whole canal project wouldn't work.

 

[TotallyNotEvil]

Yeah, a massive caravan ride to hell being almost the platonic ideal scenario for a hard-terrain ignoring spell makes the opportunity cost for the overwork a no-brainer for me.

Tuckered out Mathilde is a Mathilde that isn't throwing Mystifying Miasma at foes.

More than that, a Mathilde that threw MMM at people might not have the juice to run the currently massively innefficient Fog Path during business hours, which we might easily need her to.

Pursued/Ambushed -> MMMs to slow them down -> Corralled into hard terrain -> Cast BM while exhausted or stand and fight as your opponent dictates.

Its inneficiency makes not only the hours which we can do what it's meant to do highly inconvenient, but it means we need to always keep in mind we have to keep this much in the tank in order to have the possibility of pulling it out.

...I think it's the Empire, guys. Stares at the title.

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Yep, I'm kind of coming towards that conclusion myself.

Framejob trying to get the dorfs to stomp Marienburg.

 

[Redshirt Army]

Warpstone Powder is more reliable as a trigger, and more explosive (easier to move and carry and hide a smaller mine) and they can just make some slave grind the stuff up.

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That is a fair point, and they wouldn't have expected the discrepancy to be caught.

 

[WorldSlayer]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems unlikely Skaven would hire human bandits for an attack, they'd just do it themselves. They wouldn't use warpstone if they were using bandits to try to frame someone else for the attack. So probably not Skaven.

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Skaven are as likely to make someone else do their dirty work as anyone else. Perhaps more likely even. Also they have access to human slaves they can force to do stuff for them.

I actually think the real things that indicate it's not Marienburg thugs is the complex impact trigger mechanism, the location of the attack (quite far out of the way comparatively in dangerous territory), and the successful strike at the most impactful place. It certainly doesn't rule them out, but it does indicate quite a bit of luck went their way or they have some very impressive expertise I wouldn't expect for a bunch of thugs failing to make a profit with their piracy.

I don't like the idea of Framejob though since it may very well have been Marienburg thugs getting tricky and lucky. They could have sourced the materials (the trigger mechanism and powder are things we're still tracking down) and gone to a place that people wouldn't expect Marienburg thugs to attack. Although from what I understand this was a well equipped ship and it was part of an entire convoy so it seems unlikely standard pirates would go for it.

If it was Marienburg (or someone operating from there) though I suspect we'll get the evidence soon enough (from the supplier of powder and mechanism + Skull River testimony). If we don't get that evidence then it's likely Skaven.

 

[das_slash]

The more I think about it, the more I think we should vote it a frame job over inconclusive.

the reason is the other investigations.

if we think it might not be Marienburg, we need to say that in case one of the other investigators points at them and say 'they did it.'

If we think there is reasonable doubt, we need to say so or not be surprised if they get pegged as guilty anyways becuse someone else says they did.

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But.. isn't that what inconclusive means? why vote for framework because you think it's inconclusive?

 

[kingreaper]

Barrels are very strong, especially one as large as a hogshead. You'd have trouble breaking the seal with a hammer and an hour. Water doesn't have a chance.

Please, unless you've handled a traditionally made wooden barrel stop assuming they're crap. They're far from it. They're impressive pieces of engineering.

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I'm not assuming they're crap, I'm surmising they're imperfect from knowing that they sometimes develop slow leaks.

The problem with even a slow leak is that early gunpowder soaks up water astonishingly well.

I'm sure you could get an overengineered barrel that could take a hammer and an hour and come out fine to be let sit in a lake for ten years without a drop of water getting in. But I'm also sure that those weren't what you'd see used every time, because I have seen wooden barrels and I have seen them leak.