Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
@BoneyM
Would it be possible to go for "inconclusive, but there is reason to believe it is a possible framejob", and then layout the evidence we have, including the druchii found with the skaven?

Giving two answers would lead Belegar to ask which one you think is more likely and then you're right back to the vote.

Since I forgot about the Liber Mortis knowledge does Mathilde think she could do it without the Liber Mortis stuff or her nearly uniquely potent Windsight?

Yes.
 
And you don't need to be a superspy to pick up a shady barrel of the good black powder, just lucky. Remember, it's entirely possible this wasn't meant to sink the boat at all, which drastically opens up the potential acceptability of an attempt's effectiveness.
... That's a very good point. If they didn't know just how effective the "really good" powder was, and why, then it could be both accidental escalation and accidental framing of the Skaven.
 
Skaven do not have access to the barrel? How hard to you imagine stealing a barrel would be?
the ubersreik undercity doesn't exist anymore. So stealing a barrel requires sneaking across land for miles, when they could get a barrel from any other city instead. So the location is a huge argument against Skaven. If they were trying to pin the blame on marienburg and were willing to walk overland to do so, just steal the barrel from marienburg instead.
 
I, being a genius and therefor not needing to spend time thinking about what I am reading... failed to understand that :oops:

Would you mind adding in a "you have not used overwork this turn" bit to the chapter please, the difference between a -10 on all actions and a -20 is very significant and my choice has changed from "lol, nope" to "hmmmm" since learning this.
 
I, being a genius and therefor not needing to spend time thinking about what I am reading... failed to understand that :oops:

Would you mind adding in a "you have not used overwork this turn" bit to the chapter please, the difference between a -10 on all actions and a -20 is very significant and my choice has changed from "lol, nope" to "hmmmm" since learning this.

Done.
 
Calling it a frame job doesn't mean it was necessarily the skaven who did the framing, but on reflection I feel pretty sure it was one.

What it comes back to for me is that this was way too carefully planned to be a random attack. They had one shot and they took it at this specific ship. The thing is, Marienburg has absolutely no motive to be targeting this specific ship.
 
the ubersreik undercity doesn't exist anymore. So stealing a barrel requires sneaking across land for miles, when they could get a barrel from any other city instead. So the location is a huge argument against Skaven. If they were trying to pin the blame on marienburg and were willing to walk overland to do so, just steal the barrel from marienburg instead.

Unless they were expecting us to presume competence on the part of Marienburg and thus not use any glaring red flags. Johan and Max are not exactly hiding. I would expect Skaven and anyone else doing this to know how Gold magic works.
 
Well we still have more evidence we can collect.

The Ubersreik gunpowder source still needs to be found and interrogated.
We also haven't received a report from the questioning of Skull River, so that may yield some more answers.

Still it looks like this is going to be quite the tricky investigation. I actually suspect our best leads will be found when checking out the disease outbreak.

Here's my counter argument for why it's not Skaven, or at least not directly: there's literally no point in sourcing all the materials from Imperial foundries, because the only people who can tell are the Gold college, and the only reason they'd include that detail in a dwarven hit requires way too much double think and additional explanation for something happening half the Karaz Ankor away from the only golden wizards they let live within ten miles of them.

In addition, those materials are sourced in a line straight from Marienburg to the location. No identifying materials mean that Marienburg is the default suspect, but they've been sourced exactly how I'd expect an actual operative from Marienburg to source them anyways.

And you don't need to be a superspy to pick up a shady barrel of the good black powder, just lucky. Remember, it's entirely possible this wasn't meant to sink the boat at all, which drastically opens up the potential acceptability of an attempt's effectiveness.
If you know the capabilities of Gold Wizards then you would want to source your materials from Imperial Sources (or at least not your own sources). Also Skaven take stuff from humans all the time. K8P has two Gold Wizards staffed and a Lord Magister is on the Dwarf Council. If you're knowledgeable about current affairs (as a high rank Skaven could be) then you would know these things.

It could also be Chaos causing trouble, possibly even Chaos agents located in Marienburg.

The main thing that makes me thing it wasn't actually Marienburg Elites who did this is that there doesn't really seem to be much benefit. If they're caught out (and they're a leading suspect so will be heavily investigated) then it means Dwarfs attack their city. That's really going to hurt their profits.
 
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I would like to combine elements of the frame-job and the inconclusive into:
[ ] The evidence points to a framejob
-[ ] But we have no idea who. It could be Marienburg trying to hurt the dwarfs. It could Skaven trying to force Order factions into conflict. It could be any random vampire or necromancer. It could even be the Dark Elves trying to provoke a war between Marienburg and the Karaz Ankor so Marienburg will call in Ulthuan to trigger a second War Of The Beard.
--[ ] The only recommendation that can be given is to remain wary and follow every possible lead in every possible way.
 
the ubersreik undercity doesn't exist anymore. So stealing a barrel requires sneaking across land for miles, when they could get a barrel from any other city instead. So the location is a huge argument against Skaven. If they were trying to pin the blame on marienburg and were willing to walk overland to do so, just steal the barrel from marienburg instead.
It could have been manufactured and exported for use elsewhere before the purge. The barrel might not even have been stolen, just sourced via intermediaries.
 
I mean, at the end of the day, it would be better to avoid the War and simply make Marienburg irrelevant or at least weaken it considerably through completely mundane, absolutely not glorious trade.

We are not getting nearly enough of the whole affair to compensate for the harm it would cause to the Karaz Ankor or The Empire.
 
... Yeah, at this point I'll just trust in Ranald:

1. Tzeentch, JUST AS PLANNED!
2. Stupid Sexy Lahmians
3. To Everyone's Surprise, Mork
4. RANAAAAAAALD
5. Clan Eshin, yes-yes!
6. The Slann, somehow

Huh. Sneaky git, I'll give him that.
Were the leaves of the wood that made the barrel perhaps... purple-ish in color?!
PurposefulZephyr threw 1 6-faced dice. Reason: WHO DID IT?! Total: 3
3 3
 
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... Yeah, at this point I'll just trust in Ranald:

1. Tzeentch, JUST AS PLANNED!
2. Stupid Sexy Lahmians
3. To Everyone's Surprise, Mork
4. RANAAAAAAALD
5. Clan Eshin, yes-yes!
6. The Slann, somehow
Well the Dice have spoken. And wouldn't you know it, the right group of Night Goblins with stolen Skaven blackpowder and stolen Imperial components could pull it off.

EDIT: Also can I just say that I personally adore how we've embraced literal divination as part of the culture of this quest?
 
There is also that Jade wizard the Dwarves hired to interrogate the forest for any clues on who the bandits were. So there is that potential deciding factor to consider too.
 
I would like to combine elements of the frame-job and the inconclusive into:
[ ] The evidence points to a framejob
-[ ] But we have no idea who. It could be Marienburg trying to hurt the dwarfs. It could Skaven trying to force Order factions into conflict. It could be any random vampire or necromancer. It could even be the Dark Elves trying to provoke a war between Marienburg and the Karaz Ankor so Marienburg will call in Ulthuan to trigger a second War Of The Beard.
--[ ] The only recommendation that can be given is to remain wary and follow every possible lead in every possible way.

That would be no different than voting Inconclusive.
 
The barrel and shot were sourced from the empire, powder was probably of skaven make but in imperial barrel, possibly sold by human looters.
Wish we had some of those bandits to interrogate, i think we made the right choices, but damn i wish we had someone to interrogate, the tools used are even more low tech than i expected.

Giving two answers would lead Belegar to ask which one you think is more likely and then you're right back to the vote.
Right, how likely would Mathilde think people would escalate to naming grudge targets during the expedition?
And how likely would they be to suspect a framejob if we do not bring it up?
I'm certain the dwarves will do everything they can to investigate, but just a bit worried we will come back to a world in fire if we don't bring up the possibility of a framejob, even while the evidence simple are not conclusive.
 
So with the point that ubersreik is right between Marienburg and the incident, here what I think happened.

Marienburg hired a bunch of people to harass shipping, especially dwarven. One of them, when picking up supplies, in Ubersreik, found out about this really good gunpowder that even works when wet. He then decided to get clever, and we know the rest.

Marienburg wouldn't want this, but the problem of using catspaws is you don't have direct control, and this shit happens.
 
Unless they were expecting us to presume competence on the part of Marienburg and thus not use any glaring red flags. Johan and Max are not exactly hiding. I would expect Skaven and anyone else doing this to know how Gold magic works.
If you know the capabilities of Gold Wizards then you would want to source your materials from Imperial Sources (or at least not your own sources). Also Skaven take stuff from humans all the time. K8P has two Gold Wizards staffed and a Lord Magister is on the Dwarf Council. If you're knowledgeable about current affairs (as a high rank Skaven could be) then you would know these things.
Except if Dwarves knew about those capabilities they'd throw a fit, and the Gold College has been trying and failing their entire existence to get an in with the Dwarves in that manner. Literally the only two gold wizards who've ever worked with the Dwarves are in our employ, and Karak Eight Peaks is very far away from the scene of this crime indeed.

It'd require the Skaven to know the secrets of the gold college well enough to be trying to avoid magical forensics, in a scenario with only dwarven victims in an area entirely outside the empire, just because they heard that two of them were living in a single karak, and so go out of their way to acquire all of their goods in a direct line of travel to the city they're trying to frame.
 
feels like a frameup whoever is behind this could not have banked on Mathilde being on scene or her windsight being able to detect the skaven blackpowder leaving the Dwarves to only be able to discover Marienburg or close to Marienburg sourced materials thus jumping to the obvious conclusion
 
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Right, how likely would Mathilde think people would escalate to naming grudge targets during the expedition?
And how likely would they be to suspect a framejob if we do not bring it up?
I'm certain the dwarves will do everything they can to investigate, but just a bit worried we will come back to a world in fire if we don't bring up the possibility of a framejob, even while the evidence simple are not conclusive.

Depends what answers the conventional and Jade investigations turn up, which won't be produced until after Mathilde's already left.
 
Except if Dwarves knew about those capabilities they'd throw a fit, and the Gold College has been trying and failing their entire existence to get an in with the Dwarves in that manner. Literally the only two gold wizards who've ever worked with the Dwarves are in our employ, and Karak Eight Peaks is very far away from the scene of this crime indeed.

It'd require the Skaven to know the secrets of the gold college well enough to be trying to avoid magical forensics, in a scenario with only dwarven victims in an area entirely outside the empire, just because they heard that two of them were living in a single karak, and so go out of their way to acquire all of their goods in a direct line of travel to the city they're trying to frame.
So what you're saying is that this is entirely in character for the twisty schemes of Skaven?
 
I would like to remind people that Mathilde is competent and sensible and will say things beyond the literal text of the vote option. Voting for [The evidence is inconclusive] doesn't mean Mathilde merely tells Belegar "The evidence is inconclusive" and skips off to read books. It means Mathilde has a conversation with Belegar where she lays out the suspects she has, the evidence she's found, and why it points in different directions.
 
Here's my counter argument for why it's not Skaven, or at least not directly: there's literally no point in sourcing all the materials from Imperial foundries, because the only people who can tell are the Gold college, and the only reason they'd include that detail in a dwarven hit requires way too much double think and additional explanation for something happening half the Karaz Ankor away from the only golden wizards they let live within ten miles of them.

In addition, those materials are sourced in a line straight from Marienburg to the location. No identifying materials mean that Marienburg is the default suspect, but they've been sourced exactly how I'd expect an actual operative from Marienburg to source them anyways.

And you don't need to be a superspy to pick up a shady barrel of the good black powder, just lucky. Remember, it's entirely possible this wasn't meant to sink the boat at all, which drastically opens up the potential acceptability of an attempt's effectiveness.
179 years the colleges have been around for, so that is a large window of opportunity for a skaven to bibe/torture the information about the capabilities and limits of the spells the Gold college has access to (personalised masteries excluded, of course).

My point is that it is not unreasonable to assume that for operations of this nature, against those that can be assume to have the capacity to reach out to the Gold colleges, it may well be Skaven intelligence policy[1] to carefully construct any parts that can be Tale of Metal'd with the assumption that they will be Tale of Metal'd.

(The Dwarves do not need to know how the Golds find out things, they just need to believe that tapping the colleges for their unique resources is worth trying)

They are Skaven. I feel this is well within their bounds of paranoia.

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[1] It is not impossible that the closer relationship between the dwarves and the colleges (I.e. Belegar and his Loremaster) has been noticed, and the "assume that Golds might have access to the remains of any weapons/tools" policy was applied to this operation because of that.
 
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