Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
:l
what the hell are we even arguing at this point, it feels like the conversations drifting as we disagree with the latest point on the principle that we disagreed with the earlier one. So this all started from here:

So now we agree that the Asarai are managing international marble shipping via Praag, so with the river and RoW-ed (RoWad? RWoad?) whats the actual problem? Because we should agree that that would fix the remaining side of the equation as well as they can be until the invention of the train or widespread canals.

That the elves don't have sufficient manpower to act as a middle man?
That you think relying on a foreign port is worse than no trade or relying on a foreign port that we have been at war with historically and that we should stop the Barak Varr canal before its too late?
That even if they don't engage in the trade themselves the elves wouldn't be interested in extracting a toll off of cargo passing through?
That this city doesn't have sufficient demand to purchase literally everything the empire produces so its not worth doing?
That yes, there are no trade goods the elves are interested in importing despite the fact that either they or the dwarves reached out to arrange the runic good trade?
That luxury good trade doesn't have the same bulk amounts as charcoal therefore??? something? As for how much charcoal, approximately 20 times as much as they import in ores or ingots? Rough guess, this isn't my speciality subject. Expedition Magazine - Penn Museum
Are you arguing that we shouldn't do the RWoad(I think I like that the most) or that we should do it or you're agnostic towards it, but there'll be no trade on it?
That shipping marble for a currently planned one time expansion doesn't make a trading hub. Or a willingness to be a trading hub for others. Hell erengrad is the easiest to reach city for the eonir aside from salkalten.
 
Good point.
I don't see Bretonnia having much that empire does not, but it is one more place to buy/sell stuff.

Bretonnia has a lot more arable land than the Empire, so may be a better place to buy grain from.

It's also a diversification issue. It was mentioned that the Eonir wouldn't want to be dependent on the Empire. Trading with Bretonnia as well mitigates this risk.

That shipping marble for a currently planned one time expansion doesn't make a trading hub. Or a willingness to be a trading hub for others. Hell erengrad is the easiest to reach city for the eonir aside from salkalten.

Couronne is about the same, and Marienberg is much easier. And once you have an established shipping route people are going to use it to trade other goods in both directions, because it's such an obvious way to make a profit.
 
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As we've seen this last social turn, Tor Lithanel is about to expand, and a bunch of Major Houses are using trade to make up for the influence lost from that shattering of the status quo. They're not just interested in a few one-off trades, they are intending to import metals and stones and luxury runes at scale, and they'll keep importing them because the political power of the Major Houses that made those trade deals rely on it.

I wish you'd present evidence instead of assertions.

The expansion of the walls is a one-off. This is the first time in thousands of years, and the next time will also probably be thousands of years away. And that means that the amount of stone is capped at what they can use for this expansion- it's a project, not a market.

Metals are recyclable, and there's artisan mining- it's how they've met their own needs for centuries. Needing a bunch of new metal is predicted on making a bunch of new metal things- and we don't have any ideas what those things might be, so we don't know what the demand is going to be either. Research needed.

And luxury runes at scale? At scale is maybe a wagonload every few years, given the size/value difference.

We've got three houses out of 25 who are dabbling in trade. The ones doing spices because we basically forced them into it- the demand didn't exist before we went and created it.

So again, if we want long-term trade here, we are going to have to sell it to them and create the demand ourselves.
Much of it will involve throwing a bunch of things at the wall as novelties ("leather made from cows, how exotic!") and seeing what ends up finding a sustainable niche within their society.

We'll need to negotiate a market somewhere and get elves to start their own trade caravans, or we'll need to negotiate for dozens of human traders to have access to Laurelorn.

(If cityborn elves have to sleep a few nights under their wagons, do they give up their rights as city born? How strict is that rule enforced for rivers who aren't nobles?)

Besides that the Eonir have a lot of unfulfilled need for raw materials and a lot of superhumanly skilled labour whilst the Empire has a lot of raw materials and very few craftsmen that are anywhere near the level of the Eonir.

For the Dawi there's less need for trade: they're really good at crafting and can also get stuff from the Empire.

I think 'non-renewable raw materials' is a better label; they don't need grain or meat the way the dwarves do, and the charcoal only beats magical flames in some areas of crafting that require magically neutral heat. (Plus trees may or may not be seen as a renewable resource to be harvested? Idk how elves do that sort of forestry, but there's not a lot of wood used inside the city walls, and it should be one of their most abundant resources.)

So I'm not even sure of what the upper level on charcoal demand is, but I'm guessing much, much lower than an equivalent human city.
 
That the elves don't have sufficient manpower to act as a middle man?

Sufficient incentive, not manpower. The debate is whether there's anything they want enough to make it with their while to do transhipment.

If it exists, my position is that we haven't found it yet, so trade speculation is counting chickens before we have eggs.
 
The Empire would certainly want to curb that tendency though.

I don't see how they could.

I wish you'd present evidence instead of assertions.

The expansion of the walls is a one-off. This is the first time in thousands of years, and the next time will also probably be thousands of years away. And that means that the amount of stone is capped at what they can use for this expansion- it's a project, not a market.

Metals are recyclable, and there's artisan mining- it's how they've met their own needs for centuries. Needing a bunch of new metal is predicted on making a bunch of new metal things- and we don't have any ideas what those things might be, so we don't know what the demand is going to be either. Research needed.

And luxury runes at scale? At scale is maybe a wagonload every few years, given the size/value difference.

We've got three houses out of 25 who are dabbling in trade. The ones doing spices because we basically forced them into it- the demand didn't exist before we went and created it.

So again, if we want long-term trade here, we are going to have to sell it to them and create the demand ourselves.

The thing is, once you've built and trained a merchant navy and all the infrastructure associated with that, there's going to be a very strong incentive to maximise the value you get out of that navy. They're not going to burn the boats after importing the marble, and the elves who're sailing the boats aren't going to want to lose their jobs. They're going to want to keep trading, so they will. If they don't, another House is likely to jump on the opportunity.
 
The thing is, once you've built and trained a merchant navy and all the infrastructure associated with that, there's going to be a very strong incentive to maximise the value you get out of that navy.

Sure. But they did completely stop building boats before and let their docks decay. They can do it again. The incentives aren't all visible to us.
 
Sure. But they did completely stop building boats before and let their docks decay. They can do it again. The incentives aren't all visible to us.

They presumably stopped because there was literally no one to trade with. They were at odds with Ulthuan and Naggaroth and the Karaz Ankor, Araby hated elves, and Nehekhara imploded, so for a long time there were no friendly ports to visit.
 
If cityborn elves have to sleep a few nights under their wagons, do they give up their rights as city born? How strict is that rule enforced for rivers who aren't nobles?)
My understanding is that the issue comes up if they have an actual home outside of the city, which is why House Fanpatar can't fix up their tower.
 
That may be something which we'd have an active interest in curbing... or we may want to extract more personal concessions for the RoW road (such as personal training from the Grey Lords).
Why?
Based on what?
Apart from "make them reliant on Empire" or "empower EIC", i don't see the point.
And i honestly find both of those bad ideas in general.
 
That may be something which we'd have an active interest in curbing... or we may want to extract more personal concessions for the RoW road (such as personal training from the Grey Lords).

Quite the opposite, I'd say. We want Laurelorn to be an alternative to Marienberg in the long term. We'd want Eonir merchants visiting foreign ports and buying and selling goods there, so they can in turn trade those things with the Empire's merchants.
 
Sure. But they did completely stop building boats before and let their docks decay. They can do it again. The incentives aren't all visible to us.
The incentives are spelled out in the update:
The answer: Yes, which means that any Great House that hasn't found a novel means of shoring up their influence is going to find themselves outflanked by those that have. Novel means, like House Teleri shipping marble from Karak Vlag via Praag, or House Filuan erecting the new city blocks, or House Mardil importing Runic luxury goods, or House Yavanna bringing in novel new spices by the saddlebagful. From a neutral point of view they could be seen as only breaking even, but in the zero-sum internal politics of Tor Lithanel, others losing is just as good as you winning. In a stroke it will turn isolationism into a handicap, and it will do so in a way that it will be difficult to argue against without undermining the isolationists even further.

It's somehow pragmatic and idealistic at the same time, a ruthlessly populist move by the Queen and her supporters. It might entrench the most dedicated of the isolationists and intensify their rhetoric and tactics, but you'd be surprised if it didn't also peel away at least Miriel and Yavanna, which would secure the currently razor-thin margins in the High Council. It does, however, rely on the queen's loyalists among the Great Houses actually having novel means of shoring up their support, and though it's entirely possible, verging on likely, that there's elements of the political situation that you're currently unaware of, it does seem as if at least three of those in favour of contact with humans have yet to secure those means - Orodreth, Maeglin, and Nienna. While that's not your problem to solve, you do make a mental note to keep an eye out for opportunities to work them into future dealings.

The point is less about the direct trade that building the walls makes, or about any individual project, and more about the idea is that the balance of power is changing from the expansion, and that trade provides an avenue to political influence, so the Houses themselves will find themselves incentivized to find their own sources of trade.
 
If we do get a College/Empire Great Deed out of the Orbs next turn, which does not seem that unreasonable for the first set (with any followup sets getting CF), what are the current thoughts on how it could be spent? Our one for Alkharad stuck around for a long while before we put it to use.

Seviroscope is maybe one option.
A tamed and trained Griffon for Eike! A Wolfship for Eike! A knighthood for Eike! A fantastical beast with familiar capacity for Eike!...maybe not.
Anything we'd particularly want for WEB-MAT or KAU? "More Book" seems a little prosaic, but probably an option that doesn't necessitate us using our own scribes for immediate benefit as we get the libraries to do it for us.
Maybe we just hold it in reserve to use on the Eonir/Nordland crisis if it flares up.
 
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If we do get a College/Empire Great Deed out of the Orbs next turn, which does not seem that unreasonable for the first set (with any followup sets getting CF), what are the current thoughts on how it could be spent? Our one for Alkharad stuck around for a long while before we put it to use.

Seviroscope is maybe one option.
A tamed and trained Griffon for Eike! A Wolfship for Eike! A knighthood for Eike! A fantastical beast with familiar capacity for Eike!...maybe not.
Anything we'd particularly want for WEB-MAT or KAU? "More Book" seems a little prosaic, but probably an option that doesn't necessitate us using our own scribes for immediate benefit as we get the libraries to do it for us.
I'm pretty sure we still have the one from Queekish.
 
While there's a strong possibility that many elven goods are superior in many respects, first, there's only so much functional improvement you can reasonably get with very simple items, and second, Laurelorn does have significant class divides. Not everyone is going to have access to the work of master smiths and carpenters, and in the absence of someone paying them at least as much - if not more on acccount of them finding the work boring, demeaning, or both - as their other work would command, they're probably not making spoons and bowls. Certainly, they're not making spoons and bowls en masse.

Furthermore, smithing is pretty much exclusively a Cityborn trade (the Forestborn seem unlikely to have access to spaces where they can reasonably do anything but cold working, and the Priests of Vaul are going to get first pick of limited metal reserves), and seems to be at least somewhat restricted even amongst the Cityborn (see: Priests of Vaul).

Given those factors, I wouldn't be surprised to find that there's a significant market amongst the Forestborn for goods like well-made copper cups, utensils, and cookware. Obviously, they currently have some solution for that, but it seems entirely plausible that such a solution could be supplemented or supplanted by outside sources.
 
Something to note is that House Filuan Teleri renovated one of their dorms back into the dry dock it originally was. Those dorms are one of the major ways the great houses maintain their influence, and I doubt House Filuan Teleri went to all the effort of pulling down thousand year old walls just to make a single ship to carry a one-off shipment of marble.

They could have just hired a kislevian merchant to ferry that stone to them for far, far less than they've spent so far, but they actually went to the effort of building their own dry dock and constructing a ship. They are settling in on the expectation of long term shipping needs, and if it doesn't pan out, then they'll lose a lot of wealth and influence from the failed investment.

Edit: wrong house
 
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I wish you'd present evidence instead of assertions.

The expansion of the walls is a one-off. This is the first time in thousands of years, and the next time will also probably be thousands of years away. And that means that the amount of stone is capped at what they can use for this expansion- it's a project, not a market.

Metals are recyclable, and there's artisan mining- it's how they've met their own needs for centuries. Needing a bunch of new metal is predicted on making a bunch of new metal things- and we don't have any ideas what those things might be, so we don't know what the demand is going to be either. Research needed.

And luxury runes at scale? At scale is maybe a wagonload every few years, given the size/value difference.

We've got three houses out of 25 who are dabbling in trade. The ones doing spices because we basically forced them into it- the demand didn't exist before we went and created it.

So again, if we want long-term trade here, we are going to have to sell it to them and create the demand ourselves.
I'm not sure what you're arguing at this point. As @ReImagined pointed out, it's spelled out in the update. The Major Houses are going to want new sources of influence, and trade provides those sources for some of them.

You're making all those arguments on why the Eonir wouldn't want to trade when we already know about stuff they want to trade. You're trying to figure out if the Eonir would want to buy metal when we already know that they do, because they are currently cutting deals to buy ingots from the dwarves at great expense. We already spent an EIC action to find out what goods Tor Lithanel would want to import long-term, and we've already found three things that they'll want to buy long-term (spices, charcoal, and ore) and set up trade routes for two of those. We know that the Eonir are interested in trade with Middenland because we spoke with the Graf's son and he said they're interested in trade with Middenland. What is the claim? That all of this demand is temporary and will dry up in a few years?
Something to note is that House Filuan renovated one of their dorms back into the dry dock it originally was. Those dorms are one of the major ways the great houses maintain their influence, and I doubt House Filuan went to all the effort of pulling down thousand year old walls just to make a single ship to carry a one-off shipment of marble.

They could have just hired a kislevian merchant to ferry that stone to them for far, far less than they've spent so far, but they actually went to the effort of building their own dry dock and constructing a ship. They are settling in on the expectation of long term shipping needs, and if it doesn't pan out, then they'll lose a lot of wealth and influence from the failed investment.
It's House Teleri that's turning dorms into docks - they used to be boatwrights, now they're picking it up again. House Filuan will gain influence from setting up the buildings themselves (and presumabely owning and renting them?).
 
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