The problem with your plan is that two Constitution-Bs make a big dent in our crew and special resource pool if we do that and start a Centaur-A this year. I honestly think we shouldn't start MORE THAN TWO one-megaton ships, especially since we can profitably use all the one-megaton berths on cheap Miranda refits.
I'm not worried about SR - we're past our SR crunch, and any sort of emergencies that require SR costs (ship repairs) can be handled in a variety of ways. Worst case scenario (and it would have to be pretty bad), we have to spend 25pp for more resources. Also remember that the spreadsheet is conservative on resource income.
It's more crew that I'm worried about. We do have an officer and enlisted crunch starting around 2318 or so (more realistically, in 2320), and two more Connie-Bs instead of refits do cost more crew, but I do think that's sufficiently far away that we can do something about it. Worst case scenario, we sell off a Constellation to free up crew.
Another option is to get another EC recruitment drive or two - this snakepit option is actually really great for crew, since for the cost of 25pp (and probably 30pp later) it nets us +2/2/2 crew, and speeds up EC ship crewing, which tends to be more valuable than standard ship crewing. An Academy expansion, in contrast, costs 40pp and requires 4 years after construction just to get us the same +2/2/2 years later, though it does provide continuing value.
Also no plan that I'm aware of involves building more than two 1mt ships. Centaurs are 800kt and Oberths are 150kt. Only Connie-Bs and Renaissances are 1mt.
Right now, I'm seeing all the following being viable 2312 build plans:
1) 2 Excelsiors, 5 Miranda-A refit, 1 Centaur-A or Oberth (plan currently in spreadsheet)
2) 2 Excelsiors, 4 Miranda-A refit, 2 Centaur-A or Oberth, slightly delay Constellation-A refit
3) 2 Excelsiors, 3 Miranda-A refit, 3 Centaur-A or Oberth, delay Constellation-A refit by at least a year
4) 2 Excelsiors, 1 Connie-B, 5 Miranda-A refit (plan variation you seem to favor)
5) 2 Excelsiors, 1 Connie-B, 4 Miranda-A refit, 1 Centaur-A or Oberth, slightly delay Constellation-A refit (another plan variation you seem to favor)
6) 2 Excelsiors, 1 Connie-B, 3 Miranda-A refit, 2 Centaur-A or Oberth, delay Constellation-A refit by at least a year
7) 2 Excelsiors, 2 Connie-B, 4 Miranda-A refit, delay Constellation-A refit
8) 2 Excelsiors, 2 Connie-B, 3 Miranda-A refit, 1 Centaur-A or Oberth, delay Constellation-A refit by at least a year (my plan)
And more variations...
(On a side note, the shipbuild plan spreadsheet gets really unwieldy when modelling so many alternate plans...)
Suffice to say that if we want to have a lot of escorts, we should have adopted a doctrine tree that promotes the construction of escorts. Or we should be prepared to consider adopting one. That doesn't seem to be on the table.
It's more that I don't want us to be so extremely optimized for Lone Ranger that it becomes just as extremely difficult to switch doctrines when it would become advantageous to do so, even with doctrine switch costs. I don't anticipate us switching doctrines this decade, and likely not next decade either, but it's still worrisome.
Well, we'll likely end up defaulting to escort builds if we're having trouble crewing and we don't have further refits to fill up berth time.
That is true. On the other hand, we'll get our next Academy event eventually, some of the new members are likely to provide enlisted (e.g. the Apiata). Our biggest problem may be officers, and that may in turn wind up being our main argument for the Centaur-A, because while it's merely 'good' in terms of crew efficiency overall, it is great in terms of officer efficiency.
With the bulk of our crew going into 3/5/3 Renaissances (up to 8 simultaneous 3-year builds) and 6/5/5 Excelsiors (up to 7 simultaneous 4-year builds), I expect both our officer and enlisted crew to be about equal bottlenecks in the foreseeable future. The spreadsheet is already assuming a generous amount of enlisted income from the Apiata.
So another alternative that's even better for crew efficiency is more Oberths
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