That reminds me. @OneirosTheWriter, I think you send Excelsior to join Third Fleet at Ord Grind Duk. If so, does that put Harriman in command like I suggested? Or did he have to stay behind at Indi Beta and watch his flagship leave without him?

Yes, he will be in charge of Third Fleet.

I do guess that selecting sector commanders should come up more often now. Given you have three fleets all on the Indoria-to-Ferasa border I'm tempted to have a vote for a Rear Admiral to lead the theatre, though.
 
What the hell is T'Lorel even thinking? The Cardassians look more and more like this is all a ruse they are using as cover for an invasion, bringing more and more forces close to our borders even though they couldn't contribute anything to hunting the Kadak-Tor. If she is leaving unclaimed space it should be towards federation territory, not towards the FAR side of the unclaimed space where she would be unable to intercept them. I'm half considering dismissing her for gross incompetence and putting ka'Sharren in charge of that fleet.
 
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[X][FIFTH] Order Third Fleet from Ord Grind Duk to 15 Themis, while Fourth Fleet stops at Ferasa.

[X][WARN] Accept

[X][FLEET] Captain Straak appears to have a lead. He has (until canceled or the lead is lost) authority to direct local traffic so long as he does not delay fleets by more than a week to reroute traffic for auxiliary sensor readings or ships to support special operations. He is also encouraged to make all redirected ship movements in the area appear to be withdrawing and positioning to guard and support the border. To assist in this effort, specific personal from Tactical and Intelligence services will be designated as priority on call to support this.
 
What the hell is T'Lorel even thinking? The Cardassians look more and more like this is all a ruse they are using as cover for an invasion. If she is leaving unclaimed space it should be towards federation territory, not towards the FAR side of the unclaimed territory. I'm half considering dismissing her for gross incompetence and putting ka'Sharren in charge of that fleet.

If it's an invaision it's one of the worst planned in history and we'll destroy half their ships for no return in the middle of nowhere for them to kick it off.

It would be like Japan trying to kick of WWII with an invasion of New York
 
ust to clarify my opinion, with probability having a huge factor, I don't think full details of the combat system would detract away from the narrative. I know that when I play 4X games, I still internalize a narrative from given probabilities and numbers for anything from close battles to fluke victories to surprising defeats.

Now, while it would be nice to have hard formulas, just sample evasion % and battle avoidance % and examples of escape would really help inform:

a) how decisive fleet engagements are based on our current ROE (retreat when shields fail), and thus how risky it would be send smaller forces, or just determine the overall pace of the conflict so that we even bother trying to get ships more than month away to reinforce front lines (like USS Miracht)

b) how highly we should prioritize the defense stat (and to lesser extent, lower ship weight) in ship designs

c) what fleet doctrines or other relevant research to choose that influences these mechanics

There are two major checks that are run for when a fleet retreats. A %age of overall fleet hull strength lost, a %age of total ships lost. There is also a third check, run on ships when they individually try to retreat at a given amount of hull damage (or if they lose shields).

Enterprise against the Lorgot and Karnack got a 10% Evasion chance for crew rating.

The current mechanic for evasion is that there is a base percentage for evasion that is reduced for each point of scale on the ship, rounded up. At the moment, regular escorts have a 20% evasion chance.


What the hell is T'Lorel even thinking? The Cardassians look more and more like this is all a ruse they are using as cover for an invasion, bringing more and more forces close to our borders even though they couldn't contribute anything to hunting the Kadak-Tor. If she is leaving unclaimed space it should be towards federation territory, not towards the FAR side of the unclaimed territory where she would be unable to intercept them. I'm half considering dismissing her for gross incompetence and putting ka'Sharren in charge of that fleet.

Her reasoning is: orders are to not spark a confrontation. The Cardassian fleet is already in her sector, and more notably, because of where the different starting points were, they're now between her and 21 Themis. If she cuts back to Federation space she could end up running straight into an ambush. Seyek space is the safer bet, and then she can cut back up to the Themis outposts after the Cardassian fleet goes by, or turn to pursue if they cross the border and potentially catch them alongside third fleet.
 
The Kadak-Tor seems to be well inside Federation space now, perhaps we should have Fifth Fleet U-turn around and start hunting for them in Federation space, with Second and Third Fleets work on filling space with high power sensor sweeps to try and beat her back towards Enterprise.

Because in either a Red October or Strangelove scenario, dangling Enterprise as bait is most likely to draw them out. And better to risk Enterprise being destroyed by cloak attack than Andor or Earth being attacked and severely damaged.

The Fifth Fleet making a U-turn will almost certainly put the Cardassians on the Kadak-Tor's tail. And well, maybe they are already, but maybe not. It would have to be more convincing than a straight turn and pursue.
 
Starfleet Command

You frown as an urgent message crosses your plate. Fifth Fleet and your explorers have linked up together successfully, narrowly ahead of the Cardassian lead force. However the USS Challorn has discovered a Cardassian listening post near their path that would have detected them. As a result you know that the Cardassians have the exact position of your fleet.

Commodore T'Lorel has informed you that she is withdrawing from unclaimed space towards our Seyek affiliates, red-lining warp drives to avoid confrontation outside of Federation-affiliated space.

[ ][FIFTH] Countermand Commodore T'Lorel's orders, remain in unclaimed space searching for the Kadak-Tor.
[ ][FIFTH] Order Third Fleet from Ord Grind Duk to 15 Themis, while Fourth Fleet stops at Ferasa.
[ ][FIFTH] Allow Fleets to continue.

I guess this is where we pay for not using the Kumari to slow them down.

What I'm not liking about this at all is that T'Lorel is withdrawing towards the Seyek. If the Kadak-Tor is headed to the Federation, the the Fifth Fleet is going to be on the wrong side of things to stop them.

EDIT: Withdrawn.

A key point in proceedings was a demand by the Cardassians that Starfleet return to Federation borders in subsectors -4f through to -4c, so as not to interfere with their operation.

[ ][WARN] Accept
[ ][WARN] Reject

[X][WARN] Accept


[ ][FLEET] Issue Orders to Fleets
[ ][FLEET] Leave Fleets as they are

Possible orders include:
Move to a system
Spread out and patrol a subsector or system
Patrol in force in a subsector or system
Attack a target
Escort shipping in the area

[X][FLEET] Order Fifth Fleet (if successfully withdrawn to Federation borders) and Fourth Fleet to spread out and patrol Federation space in -4C and -4D, using superior sensors to intercept attempts by the Kadak-Tor to sneak into Federation Space. Third Fleet is to form patrol in force in -3C and -3B, attempting to intercept any attempt by Kadak-Tor to sneak into those sub-sectors.[
 
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Oh thanks! Wasn't expecting an actual github repo. Haskell...now that's not something I've touched in a very long time. Would you mind pushing your combat probability calculator too?

edit: curious to see if you're doing a monte carlo simulation or probability tree
I uploaded the file into the same repository, but I don't expect it to be at all easy to get to work since it requires a lot of libraries to be installed, unlike the tech script. I'll look at adding proper helper files for library management later so all of that can be left to the haskell-stack tool.
 
-3d and -3c, the area we suspect the Kadak-Tor to be in, is a serious gap in our defensive line. No outposts or starbases to stage fleets or to listen out for signs. I remain unsure if this is a deliberate exploitation for malicious purposes or not.
 
MOST IMPORTANT THING:

Her reasoning is: orders are to not spark a confrontation. The Cardassian fleet is already in her sector, and more notably, because of where the different starting points were, they're now between her and 21 Themis. If she cuts back to Federation space she could end up running straight into an ambush. Seyek space is the safer bet, and then she can cut back up to the Themis outposts after the Cardassian fleet goes by, or turn to pursue if they cross the border and potentially catch them alongside third fleet.
Whoa whoa whoa.

She was not ordered to avoid confrontation with the Cardassians, that was edited out of an earlier version of a plan that did not, ultimately, win the vote.

Her orders were "Fifth Fleet should link up with S'harien and Enterprise to try and locate the Kadak-Tor, with all ships taking guidance from Sarek when it reports in."

You have her doing the first part of that, then totally giving up on the second and third part, because of an "avoid confrontation" order that I don't think we ever actually gave her. Furthermore, her combined fleet is now stronger than the Cardassian force she was maneuvering around; why is she still evading it so radically that it imperils her ability to participate in the search for the stealth cruiser?

EDIT: Even Ibmaian's plan, which was a lot more cautious than mine, was only cautious about T'Lorel or the Explorer Corps confronting the Cardassians before the fleets linked up.
 
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Briefvoice successfully orated the thread against it, on the basis that it was too risky.

OTOH in a straight up war the Federation has a massive advantage, at least without a substantial first-strike attempt. We basically can USA the Cardassians into defeat.
 
MOST IMPORTANT THING:

Whoa whoa whoa.

She was not ordered to avoid confrontation with the Cardassians, that was edited out of an earlier version of a plan that did not, ultimately, win the vote.

Her orders were "Fifth Fleet should link up with S'harien and Enterprise to try and locate the Kadak-Tor, with all ships taking guidance from Sarek when it reports in."

You have her doing the first part of that, then totally giving up on the second and third part, because of an "avoid confrontation" order that I don't think we ever actually gave her. Furthermore, her combined fleet is now stronger than the Cardassian force she was maneuvering around; why is she still evading it so radically that it imperils her ability to participate in the search for the stealth cruiser?

Not sparking a confrontation is part of our standard ROE though? I think she made the right call personally. It's not like she can help search for the Kadak-Tor if she's fighting off a bunch of Jaldun or escorting damaged ships to base.
 
I have to admit, without recourse to whether it was the right call or not, I was surprised people didn't approve the mission that was basically the T'Lorel Manoeuvre Rides Again :D

I think we're kind of hoping that the Cardassian fleet catches the Kadak-Tor and takes the whole mess off our hands, which obviously wouldn't happen if we deliberately slowed them down.

Seems like that's not going to happen, though.

Briefvoice successfully orated the thread against it, on the basis that it was too risky.

OTOH in a straight up war the Federation has a massive advantage, at least without a substantial first-strike attempt. We basically can USA the Cardassians into defeat.

I voted for Simon-Jester's "no orders" plan! Check the tally.

Well, if people want T'Lorel to go back to Federation space, I have have a write-in that does it.
 
I am now concerned that the situation will be the Kadak-Tor glassing something important (Say some unshielded shipyards or a Metropolis), crippling us and also letting the Cardassians wash their hands off it.
 
Uh yes, Shard. Many of us have been worrying about this for days, we've even been half-jokingly calling it the "Doctor Strangelove" scenario, named after a movie whose plot reminds us all of the scenario you describe.

I think we're kind of hoping that the Cardassian fleet catches the Kadak-Tor and takes the whole mess off our hands, which obviously wouldn't happen if we deliberately slowed them down.

Seems like that's not going to happen, though.
I for one do not want it to happen. If the Kadak-Tor is defecting, that is a massive boost for us. If the Kadak-Tor's captain has gone rogue, this is an opportunity for us to deprive Cardassia of a potential superweapon (albeit one that is perhaps less dangerous than they'd hoped).

Whereas if the Cardassians catch the Kadak-Tor and "take the mess off our hands," they probably get their combat cloak back, and may be in a position to murder Gul Miran and other would-be defectors. Neither of those things is good.

I voted for Simon-Jester's "no orders" plan! Check the tally.

Well, if people want T'Lorel to go back to Federation space, I have have a write-in that does it.
Shard was talking about when we voted on whether or not to use Kumari to create a warp-denial-cloud-thing to slow the Cardassians down. He thinks you talked us out of doing that.

Also, as a nitpick, my plan gave T'Lorel orders. It just didn't give her specific rules of engagement, on the grounds that the standing ROE were good enough. What I didn't realize is that apparently Oneiros believes (correctly or incorrectly) that T'Lorel has been ordered to evade confrontation with the Cardassians, even if that means taking her command out of the action and leaving Straak to track the Kadak-Tor alone.
________________________________________

Now, unless @OneirosTheWriter goes back and retcons T'Lorel actually following the orders we voted to give her, we're going to need something like @Briefvoice's idea to make things work out.

Among other things, it is to our advantage for us to comply with a Cardassian demand to withdraw our ships into our space, because the real prize here is catching the Kadak-Tor. If the Cardassians have free rein to look for Gul Miran outside our space, while we have free rein to look for her inside our space where she actually is... The Cardassian diplomats may have just scored a major own-goal. No wonder they often prefer shooting to talking; they're better at it. :D

[EDIT: X's removed for conservation]

[][WARN] Accept

[][FIFTH] Write-In: T'Lorel is to withdraw coreward towards Federation Space rather than Seyek space, broadcasting that withdrawal is "as per the Federation's agreement with the Cardassion Union this task force will return to Federation borders" if Cardassian ships ships seem set to challenge. Fear of contradicting their own diplomatic agreements should buy her the breathing space needed.

[][FLEET] Order Fifth Fleet (if successfully withdrawn to Federation borders) and Fourth Fleet to spread out and patrol Federation space in -4c and -4d, using superior sensors to intercept attempts by the Kadak-Tor to sneak into Federation Space. Third Fleet is to form patrol in force in -3c and -3b, attempting to intercept any attempt by Kadak-Tor to sneak into those sub-sectors.[

Vote @Briefvoice's write-ins! Take a screwed up situation, and screw it back down!
 
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[X] Briefvoice

Looks good to me. Cardassians can't protest us withdrawing to our own space without losing face. And since an invasion probably isn't on the cards, they don't have any reason to escalate things besides their usual arrogance.
 
The startling revelation by Starfleet that the Cardassian Union's defence forces have lost an experimental cloakship somewhere on the rimward border of the Federation has sent shockwaves through the political establishment. As a result, the governments in Ferasa and Risa have both moved their militaries to High Alert.

That's a bonus I should have realized - that public announcement would give an excuse for the Caitians to go to high alert even with Dawiar tensions.

Risan citizens discover to their surprise that their military has a High Alert status on the books

:lol

Straite nods rapidly. "The warp signature changes subtly from this point. Look, see? Same technology base, but I don't think this warp signature is being made by a full-sized coil pair like the previous one. And the cloaking isn't quite as complete."

Wait, so even though they should only have single prototype cloaking device, they managed to send a cloaked probe, albeit less hidden? That can have disturbing implications on Cardassian reverse engineering of cloaking tech.

[USS Sarek on a course from -4d to -3d]

Potential Kadak-Tor is now in Federation space. Right when we (somehow) sent 5th fleet actually further away.

You frown as an urgent message crosses your plate. Fifth Fleet and your explorers have linked up together successfully, narrowly ahead of the Cardassian lead force. However the USS Challorn has discovered a Cardassian listening post near their path that would have detected them. As a result you know that the Cardassians have the exact position of your fleet.

Commodore T'Lorel has informed you that she is withdrawing from unclaimed space towards our Seyek affiliates, red-lining warp drives to avoid confrontation outside of Federation-affiliated space.

This is a surprising result. Given their proximity, shouldn't Enterprise and S'harien link up with Sarek first, then try to link up with 5th fleet? Shouldn't they all be following the Sarek?

I'm having regrets about this course of action - our now largest and most powerful fleet is in the wrong position. Heading to Seyek territory is problematic with all Cardassian forces coreward of them, unless this is some really elaborate ruse to be able to attack Seyek.

"Definitely Cardassian, two ships, a Jaldun and an escort most likely."

That's a really small force coreward. Not sure if it's something we need worry about at this stage.

We have made initial contact with the Cardassians, through the assistance of our Seyek and Qloath friends. The initial talks with the Cardassians have not been especially fruitful, but we are endeavouring to deepen the relationship.

Promising. Hoping they're not simply buying time though.

A key point in proceedings was a demand by the Cardassians that Starfleet return to Federation borders in subsectors -4f through to -4c, so as not to interfere with their operation.

If it wasn't for 5th fleet now being an awkward position, I'd be inclined to say no and emphasize the neutrality of the space.

We could even argue that we would not be interfering if we simply shadowed Cardassian fleets. That would obviously increase tensions though.

"Yes! Stray neutrino traces is what our latest research into the Syndicate data suggests could be the sign of the cloak."

+5 research into anti-experimental-cloak tech? :D

[ ][FLEET] Issue Orders to Fleets
[ ][FLEET] Leave Fleets as they are

Possible orders include:
Move to a system
Spread out and patrol a subsector or system
Patrol in force in a subsector or system
Attack a target
Escort shipping in the area

Thanks for elaborating the possible orders we can send.
 
It is also of course possible that this is really a massive military exercise in how the Federation responds to stealth ships.

And at the same time doing military recoinnanasance.
 
There are two major checks that are run for when a fleet retreats. A %age of overall fleet hull strength lost, a %age of total ships lost. There is also a third check, run on ships when they individually try to retreat at a given amount of hull damage (or if they lose shields).

Thanks for the info. I take it the lower those percentages, the less escape chance? Hmm, if it's not strictly based off stat sums, then recon groups may be more viable.

This should also allow longer protracted conflicts, where it requires multiple battles to actually eliminate a fleet if both sides are trying to avoid attrition. Which means we should have the viable option of sending further reinforcements from farther sectors if this turns out into a large-scale conflict.

Enterprise against the Lorgot and Karnack got a 10% Evasion chance for crew rating.

The current mechanic for evasion is that there is a base percentage for evasion that is reduced for each point of scale on the ship, rounded up. At the moment, regular escorts have a 20% evasion chance.

Okay, that does improve the value of escorts. Does defense stat have the opposite effect, where each point of defense increase evasion by x%?
 
[X][FLEET] Order Fifth Fleet (if successfully withdrawn to Federation borders) and Fourth Fleet to spread out and patrol Federation space in -4C and -4D, using superior sensors to intercept attempts by the Kadak-Tor to sneak into Federation Space. Third Fleet is to form patrol in force in -3C and -3B, attempting to intercept any attempt by Kadak-Tor to sneak into those sub-sectors.

These orders are too slow. We need our patrol groups in place well in advance of the Kadak-Tor. I don't have our fleet compositions handy so this suggestion is suboptimal, but here is what I suggest as the cordon:

[][FLEET]
-[] Order Fifth Fleet (if successfully withdrawn to Federation borders) to patrol in force along the border, acting as a deterrent to Cardassian forces along the border.
-[] Fourth Fleet to patrol Federation space in -4c in force until Fifth Fleet returns to the border, then spread out and patrol the same space.
-[] Third Fleet spread out and patrol -2c and -3c.
-[] Second Fleet spread out and patrol -2d but retain a core battlegroup sized for potential engagement with a Kaldar-class.
-[] Request member fleets in Orion space to spread out and patrol -3c.

This provides us coverage in all zones the Kadak-Tor could reach with the exception of -3d, which none of our fleets can reach right now anyway. However, I feel that the most vulnerable current targets are in Amarki space (-2d), so second fleet (with their Amarki reinforcements) also serves as the current last line of defence.
 
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Just some random observations from carefully rereading the update post.

OneirosTheWriter said:
[Caitians, Risans move to High Alert, Indoria moves to State of Emergency, Risan citizens discover to their surprise that their military has a High Alert status on the books]
On reflection, I am sincerely wondering what it looks like when the Risans go to high alert. Do their military officers stop wearing sunglasses indoors to go with the rest of their beachwear? Is partying restricted to levels unlikely to cause impaired function from hangovers the night after?

"They've fired a probe as a decoy and turned core-wards, up into Federation territory."

The words haven't even left the Lieutenant's mouth when Captain Straak turns to point to his conn officer. "Helm, new course."

[USS Sarek on a course from -4d to -3d]
IMPORTANT NOTE:

The Cardassians have cloaked probes now. Cardassian cloaked probes are a thing. Cardassian cloaked ships will also probably remain a thing, even if they don't get to keep this stealth cruiser.

"The Telzziadriz light queenship and her escorts have established an analysis of the anomalous warp signatures," reports one of the ozzira warrant officers to one of the Admirals.

"What have they discovered?"

"Definitely Cardassian, two ships, a Jaldun and an escort most likely."
Two ships are not a problem. Their presence may not even be related to the incident on the coreward front- they could be the equivalent of the Miracht, an exploratory or survey mission that wasn't recalled because they couldn't possibly reach the Kadak-Tor's location in time to matter.
 
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