BoSPaladin
The Paladin
Not having enough military can lead to nod hurting our harvesting/industry and deny us critical resources causing the world to end too.
Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition
Not having enough military can lead to nod hurting our harvesting/industry and deny us critical resources causing the world to end too.
Were the heck did I say that we should defund the gdi military at all.
BoSPaladin
The Paladin
Where did I say you said we should defund the gdi military at all?
You said to make more military stuff instead of the important stop mutations satellite in your post? Like we expanded are able to stay on the earth timer for a pretty big amount by what has been said.
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- Location
- his hidden lair
What BoSPaladin is arguing, is that while a mutation roll might hurt our mitigation, NOD getting a decent sucker punch in will also hurt mitigation, in addition to just hurting us in general. I don't know the math, and I don't know if it was even possible and it's not worth angsting over it either way- but something like getting the sensor sucker punch off probably would have been worth another uninhibited mutation roll in the long run.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Hmm.
Ok. I'm getting weirdly low figures for probable payout.
One scenario:
2 dice on Offshore: 0.22 odds of median 25RpT payout.
2 dice on Vein Mines:0.32 odds of median payout 25RpT.
There are four possibilities, of which three produce a payout: Offshore only for 25RpT, Vein Mines only for 25RpT, and both for 50RpT.
As far as I understand the payout should be
((0.22*(1-.32))*25 + (0.32*(1-.22))*25 + (0.32 * 0.22)*50)/4
Which my phone calculator says +3.375RpT.
If I simplify and assume that all winning combinations give 25RpT, then the payout is
((1-(.22*.32))*25)/2 = 11.62RpT
I'm clearly doing my math wrong, but how?
BoSPaladin
The Paladin
Yes. I argued that loads of the free dice pumped into the stabilizer sats could instead have gone into our military. Because I believed nod would be hitting us in 2057.
In point of fact Nod has basically never stopped hitting us, but they at least haven't launched large scale simultaneous attacks across the world which is the main thing.
Either way. I'm expecting some major assault from nod any day now, have been for a while. And argued a while back that one or two extra turns taken to get the stabilizer, in the long run wouldn't have been so bad. Especially because we're so far ahead of canon GDI in abatement.
That is not me claiming you want to 'defund the military'. That is me saying I wish we'd simply funded the military more. Nothing about defunding and nothing about what you may or may not want.
You said
Which is, by the way. Entirely true. One extra mutation could cause a bit extra tiberium growth which takens down some industry which etc etc. Critical block on the way to the world ending.
But by that same token. Nod taking out a factory could lead to slightly less gdi tanks leading to further nod victory's down the road, etc etc. critical block on the way to the world ending.
Same principle. Small actions cause a knock on effect.
All of which is nothing to do with you. There was a comment from simon jester saying a bunch of people were expecting a warlord dogpile around mid 2059. Lightwhispers pointed out that estimate is disputed. And I pointed out I'd expected Nod to have already started a 'warlord dogpile' or something similar to it before now, or failing that to start any moment.
Instead of talking about warlords you mentioned mutation could be one of the critical blocks. Which I'm not disputing, but has little to do with when we expect the warlords to try major attacks. I pointed out not having enough military can be dangerous similarly to not having enough abatement. You apparently took offence and here we are.
edit: also, by the way. Minor correction. It's not a "Stop mutation satellite." It's a delay mutation satellite.
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Lurking_Badger
Cheese Enjoyer
- Location
- Wisconsin
In the first calculation, you don't divide by four. Look at the probability of each of the four 'paths' that could play out.
The probability of Offshore succeeding and Vein failing is (0.22*(1-.32) = 0.1496
The probability of Vein succeeding and Offshore failing is (0.32*(1-.22) = 0.2496
The probability of Both succeeding is (0.32 * 0.22) = 0.0704
The probability of Both failing is (1-0.22)(1-0.32) = 0.5304
Adding the probability of each 'path' up should give 1 (aka 100%), which it does. By dividing by 4, you are saying that there is a one in four chance of even rolling any dice at all. The real value, after correction, should be 13.5
For the second equation is really messed up. The probability that you use, (1-(.22*.32), is for neither succeeding or only one succeeding. It should be the success rate for any success which would be (1-(.78*.68)). Then you multiply it by 25 to get 11.74
Source: I have taken several classes on probability.
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I just Don't know why you are so hostile to it like we needed it to make more time and everyone and there dog in gdi and other people as well was glad we made. and it was the last guys big project before he retired.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Thank you.
So probable payout of multiple outcomes is just the sum of the probable payout for each outcome, that being in turn the multipicative of the probability of that outcome and the payout? I couldn't be sure, and my online source was apparently bad.
That second one is my bad--just a brain fart.
Lurking_Badger
Cheese Enjoyer
- Location
- Wisconsin
Your Welcome!
Yep, that is the gist of it.
Don't feel down about making a mistake. Online sources can be notoriously bad, especially if you don't know enough to weed out the worst. I only caught the mistake because I was checking to see that all probabilities added up to 100%. It was the one rule that was ground into me in Elementary Statistics.
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trooperist
Cinnamon Roll AI
Didn't really see anything about politics for last turn so I'll do a post.
Free Market Party: No Change
Market Socialist Party: -20 Strong Support, +20 Weak Opposition
Militarist: -10 Weak Support, +10 Weak Opposition
Initiative First: -30 Weak Opposition, +30 Strong Opposition
United Yellow List: -10 Strong Support, +10 Weak Support
Starbound Party: -15 Strong Support, +10 Weak Support, +5 Weak Opposition
Socialist Party: -10 Strong Support, +10 Weak Support
Developmentalists: -60 Strong Support, +40 Weak Support, +20 Weak Opposition
Independents: No Change
Most movement was probably from the disaster with the Tidal power plants. Though some movement may have been from deciding maybe Yellow Zoners deserve an education and maybe we can negotiate with some elements of NOD. But chunks of Tiberium washing up on Blue Zone shores because of us is a very bad look.
In all, the situation last turn was a bad blow. This is probably the largest amount of representative approval we've lost in the whole game.
Our overall approval rating dropped 3.06% from 75.22% to 72.16%. And a bit more devastating since that number isn't taking into account losing 115 Strong Supporters.
Our support last turn was made up of 55.98% Strong Support and 44.02% Weak Support.
It changed by 6.48% to 49.50% Strong Support and 50.5% Weak Support.
Makeup of opposition didn't really change much despite an increase in numbers.
Our opposition last turn was made up of 42.38% Weak Opposition and 57.62% Strong Opposition.
It changed this turn to 42.71% Weak Opposition and 57.29% Strong Opposition.
Free Market Party: No Change
Market Socialist Party: -20 Strong Support, +20 Weak Opposition
Militarist: -10 Weak Support, +10 Weak Opposition
Initiative First: -30 Weak Opposition, +30 Strong Opposition
United Yellow List: -10 Strong Support, +10 Weak Support
Starbound Party: -15 Strong Support, +10 Weak Support, +5 Weak Opposition
Socialist Party: -10 Strong Support, +10 Weak Support
Developmentalists: -60 Strong Support, +40 Weak Support, +20 Weak Opposition
Independents: No Change
Most movement was probably from the disaster with the Tidal power plants. Though some movement may have been from deciding maybe Yellow Zoners deserve an education and maybe we can negotiate with some elements of NOD. But chunks of Tiberium washing up on Blue Zone shores because of us is a very bad look.
In all, the situation last turn was a bad blow. This is probably the largest amount of representative approval we've lost in the whole game.
Our overall approval rating dropped 3.06% from 75.22% to 72.16%. And a bit more devastating since that number isn't taking into account losing 115 Strong Supporters.
Our support last turn was made up of 55.98% Strong Support and 44.02% Weak Support.
It changed by 6.48% to 49.50% Strong Support and 50.5% Weak Support.
Makeup of opposition didn't really change much despite an increase in numbers.
Our opposition last turn was made up of 42.38% Weak Opposition and 57.62% Strong Opposition.
It changed this turn to 42.71% Weak Opposition and 57.29% Strong Opposition.
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Not much we can do on that specific incident then take the punches and continue.
We might be able to commit to building three MARV fleets. We already want to build two for Mecca and Karachi, and we have one with some setup in South America to make Stahl's life harder.
- Location
- Mobile, Alabama
I think a Nod civil war is like the worst thing that could happen right now. If Kane was operating openly it'd be different but a divided Nod could quickly be brought in line by him showing up.
- Location
- canada
A quick check shows they hasn't logged on for more than a day. If the roll is needed sooner, could someone else be picked to do it? Not that I'm volunteering though.
BoSPaladin
The Paladin
I'm not hostile to it. I think the stabiliser is a great idea. i too am glad it was made. And it made a very pretty final project for Doctor Granger a wonderful note to end his career on.
If you want to know my arguments here, here's the plan I made around the time and my arguments.
Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition
[X]Plan Space infrastructure 620 R total --[X]Orbital 3 dice + 5 free dice 120 r --[X] GDSS Columbia (Phase 1) 2 dice 40R+ 93% --[X] GDSS Shala (Phase 1) 0/85 2 dice 40R+ 93% --[X] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 5+6) 42/180 2 dice 20R+ 58% --[X] Expand Orbital Communications Network (Phase 3) 13/135 2...
forums.sufficientvelocity.com
But summarised? The stabiliser satellites were majorly expensive and we have a lot of other projects to do. A military that hasn't stopped complaining all game. I wanted to start on colombia and shala to give food production and habitation in space. Also I wasn't ignoring tiberium either since I wanted to put dice into tiberium containment options. And towards creating a tiberium inhibitor, which, we still haven't made a single one. People wanted to jump straight onto the massive mega project when we had smaller cheaper options we'd researched and not started using yet.
Because tiberium is a major problem but it isn't our only problem. And as I've stated. I expected Nod to seriously start hitting us in 2057. 2000 points of space based anti-tiberium satellites. At a time when I was and am expecting Nod to strike targets all over the globe with stealth tanks, avatars, scorpion tanks and generally whatever they can get their hands on. At a time when Gideon had attacked chicago, a major tiberium harvesting centre.
Why do I want to fund the military more? Because since the 'end' of tib war 3 Nod has been a constant presence. Oh sure the intensity has dialed down to constant skirmishes and occasional larger attacks when Kane or one of the major warlords wants something.
But currently most if not all the major Nod warlords see GDI as something they can poke to get street cred with their buddies. We 'won' the war but Nod still had and has deep yellow zone regions untouched by GDI. Nod, as a matter of fact is still launching assassination attempts against any GDI figure they can reach along with openly launching major offensives all around the globe. North america. South america. Middle east. Eastern europe. Asia.
For all intents and purposes the war is still ongoing.
the 2000 progress on the stabliser? That could have been mining ops on the moon. Habitats in space. Every single services option we currently have available adds up to less progress than that. Or it could have been multiple finished military projects or multiple any projects.
Again. Stabiliser is great. It's going to buy us years, possibly even decades of extra time. but guess what? We've got far more immediate problems. As I've stated multiple times by now. I worry nod could launch a major attack at any moment, I fully expected them to have launched major attacks before now. Hell. The attack from krukov recently was major in my view. Particularly since he's able to paint it as a successful attack that breached GDI defences. But apparently nothing less than multiple warlords attacking all at once is considered major enough.
tldr: Really simply. We're consistently pushing back tiberium due to a variety of factors. some is luck, some is very high abatement. (well done) Meanwhile nod is still eking out occasional wins. Even at 'only' individual warlords launching their own attacks and not all of them attacking all at once. I don't just want Nod to lose when they attack. I want them to be too scared to dare attack at all.
- Location
- Outside the Box
- Pronouns
- She/Her
The Stabilizer is why we can focus on military so hard. Because our current mitigation will last at least twice as long, we can mainly use the Tiberium sector for resource gain instead of having to push for expensive mitigation options like the Inhibitors or MARVs. Which in turn lets us put most of our free dice this Plan into the military and into space.
2,000 progress is a megaproject. But split that into 10 normal mitigation projects, and that would be worth about +10 mitigation. The Inhibitors are worth a massively disproportionate amount more than that.
2,000 progress is a megaproject. But split that into 10 normal mitigation projects, and that would be worth about +10 mitigation. The Inhibitors are worth a massively disproportionate amount more than that.
If no one else wants to, I'll volunteer.
I'm stealing Simon's formula to do something unorothodx-not giving the military free dice.
[] Draft Plan The Military Is Fine
Infrastructure 5/5+1 free Dice 85 R
-[] Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 3) 302/650 (5 Dice, 75 R) (77% chance)
-[] Communal Housing Experiments 72/140 (1 Die, 10 R, -5 PS) (74% chance)
Heavy Industry 4/4+2 Free Dice 135 R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 3) 125/300 (3 Dice, 60 R) (86% chance)
-[] Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors 0/500 (3 Die, 75 R) (3/7.5 median)
Light and Chemical Industry 4/4 Dice 80 R
-[] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 3) 4/320 (4 Dice, 80 R) (28% chance)
Agriculture 3/3 Dice+1 free die 30 R
-[] Perennial Aquaponics Bays (Stage 2+3?) 291/350 (3 Dice, 30 R) (100%+ 3/6 median)
-[] Wadmalaw Kudzu Development 0/40 1 die 20R 93%
Tiberium 6/6 Dice 135 R
-[] Improved Tiberium Containment Facilities Development 0/40 (1 Die, 25 R) (96% chance)
-[] Red Zone Containment Lines (Stage 5) 74/180 (2 Dice, 50 R) (92% chance)
-[] Offshore Tiberium Harvester Stations 0/200 (2 Dice, 40 R, -10 PS) (22% chance)
-[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2) 5/200 (1 Die, 20 R) (1/2.25 median)
Orbital 5/5 Dice + 3 Free Dice 160 R
-[] GDSS Philadelphia II (Phase 5) 32/1425 (8 dice, 160 R) (8/20 median)
Services 3/4 Dice 45 R
-[] Green Zone Teacher Colleges 149/200 (1 Die, 5 R) (86% chance)
-[] Tissue Replacement Therapy Development 0/60 (1 Die, 20 R) (78% chance)
-[] Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Development 0/60 (1 Die, 20 R) (78% chance)
Military 6/6 Dice 70R
-[] Naval Defense Laser Refits 270/330 (1 Die, 15 R) (74% chance)
-[] Tube Artillery Deployment 184/200 (1 Dice, 15 R) (100% chance)
-[] Pacifier MAV Deployment 90/120 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[] Shell Plants (Phase 4) 3/300 (3 Dice, 30 R) (3/5 median)
Bureaucracy 3/3 Dice
-[] Unclear bureaucratic projects and plans.
[] Draft Plan The Military Is Fine
Infrastructure 5/5+1 free Dice 85 R
-[] Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 3) 302/650 (5 Dice, 75 R) (77% chance)
-[] Communal Housing Experiments 72/140 (1 Die, 10 R, -5 PS) (74% chance)
Heavy Industry 4/4+2 Free Dice 135 R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 3) 125/300 (3 Dice, 60 R) (86% chance)
-[] Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors 0/500 (3 Die, 75 R) (3/7.5 median)
Light and Chemical Industry 4/4 Dice 80 R
-[] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 3) 4/320 (4 Dice, 80 R) (28% chance)
Agriculture 3/3 Dice+1 free die 30 R
-[] Perennial Aquaponics Bays (Stage 2+3?) 291/350 (3 Dice, 30 R) (100%+ 3/6 median)
-[] Wadmalaw Kudzu Development 0/40 1 die 20R 93%
Tiberium 6/6 Dice 135 R
-[] Improved Tiberium Containment Facilities Development 0/40 (1 Die, 25 R) (96% chance)
-[] Red Zone Containment Lines (Stage 5) 74/180 (2 Dice, 50 R) (92% chance)
-[] Offshore Tiberium Harvester Stations 0/200 (2 Dice, 40 R, -10 PS) (22% chance)
-[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2) 5/200 (1 Die, 20 R) (1/2.25 median)
Orbital 5/5 Dice + 3 Free Dice 160 R
-[] GDSS Philadelphia II (Phase 5) 32/1425 (8 dice, 160 R) (8/20 median)
Services 3/4 Dice 45 R
-[] Green Zone Teacher Colleges 149/200 (1 Die, 5 R) (86% chance)
-[] Tissue Replacement Therapy Development 0/60 (1 Die, 20 R) (78% chance)
-[] Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Development 0/60 (1 Die, 20 R) (78% chance)
Military 6/6 Dice 70R
-[] Naval Defense Laser Refits 270/330 (1 Die, 15 R) (74% chance)
-[] Tube Artillery Deployment 184/200 (1 Dice, 15 R) (100% chance)
-[] Pacifier MAV Deployment 90/120 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[] Shell Plants (Phase 4) 3/300 (3 Dice, 30 R) (3/5 median)
Bureaucracy 3/3 Dice
-[] Unclear bureaucratic projects and plans.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Yeah, I can understand the idea.
Personally I want to hold off on cutting Free dice for the military until we actually see what the "warlord dogpile" may look like. In battle, there is a measure of truth- theories about what will and won't work run into the realities. If it turns out we overprepared, then the warlords being weary from strategic overextension will make it easier for us to do a round or two of territorial expansion at their expense. If it turns out we needed the current preparations, well... Good thing we have them. Either way we can relax a bit... then.
Or such is my feeling.
Personally I want to hold off on cutting Free dice for the military until we actually see what the "warlord dogpile" may look like. In battle, there is a measure of truth- theories about what will and won't work run into the realities. If it turns out we overprepared, then the warlords being weary from strategic overextension will make it easier for us to do a round or two of territorial expansion at their expense. If it turns out we needed the current preparations, well... Good thing we have them. Either way we can relax a bit... then.
Or such is my feeling.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Further refinements on my preliminary plan.
Spent that extra die and 25R on more HIS--because if we're going for it, we should be going for it fast.
Re: no free dice on Military, this is just about the worst time to be doing it, and Nod would rightly smack us with a clue-by-four if we tried it.
[]Plan Steel and Shot
-[]Infrastructure 5/5 70R
--[] Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 3) 302/650 1 dice 15R (median 1/5)
--[] Communal Housing Experiments 72/140 1 die 10R 74%
--[] Integrated Cargo System 0/800 3 dice 45R (median 3/11)
-[]Heavy Industry 4/4 + 2 135R
--[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 3) 125/300 3 dice 60R 86%
--[] Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors 0/500 3 dice 75R (median 3/8)
-[]Light & Chemical Industry 4/4 80R
--[] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 3) 4 dice 80R 28%
-[]Agriculture 3/3 30R
--[] Perennial Aquaponics Bays (Stage 2) 291/350 1 die 10R 73%
--[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 1) 0/150 2 dice 20R 41%
-[]Tiberium 6/6 115R
--[]Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2) 5/200 4 dice 80R 100% (median progress 200/200 + 105/200)
--[]Improved Tiberium Containment Facilities Development 0/40 1 die 25R 100%
--[]Railgun Harvester Factories
---[]Vladivostok 0/70 1 die 10R 71%
-[]Orbital Industry 5/5 100R
--[]GDSS Philadelphia II (Phase 5) 32/1425 5 dice 100R (median 5/20)
-[]Services 4/4 70R
--[] Green Zone Teacher Colleges 149/200 1 die 5R 86%
--[] Tissue Replacement Therapy Development 0/60 1 die 20R 82%
--[] Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Development 0/60 1 die 20R 78%
--[] Human Genetic Engineering Programs (New) 0/120 1 die 25R 18%
-[]Military 6/6 + 5 140R
--[] Long Range Sensor System Deployment (Phase 2) 26/300 2 dice 50R (median 2/4)
--[] Pacifier Mobile Artillery Vehicle Deployment 90/120 1 die 10R 100%
--[] Tube Artillery Deployment 184/200 1 die 15R 100%
--[] Shell Plants (Phase 4) 3/300 5 dice 50R 73%
--[] Naval Defense Laser Refits 270/330 1 die 15R 74%
--[] Security Review 1 die auto
-[]Bureaucracy 3/3
--[] Security Reviews
---[]Military 3 dice auto
740/740R, 7/7 Free Dice
-[]Infrastructure 5/5 70R
--[] Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 3) 302/650 1 dice 15R (median 1/5)
--[] Communal Housing Experiments 72/140 1 die 10R 74%
--[] Integrated Cargo System 0/800 3 dice 45R (median 3/11)
-[]Heavy Industry 4/4 + 2 135R
--[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 3) 125/300 3 dice 60R 86%
--[] Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors 0/500 3 dice 75R (median 3/8)
-[]Light & Chemical Industry 4/4 80R
--[] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 3) 4 dice 80R 28%
-[]Agriculture 3/3 30R
--[] Perennial Aquaponics Bays (Stage 2) 291/350 1 die 10R 73%
--[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 1) 0/150 2 dice 20R 41%
-[]Tiberium 6/6 115R
--[]Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2) 5/200 4 dice 80R 100% (median progress 200/200 + 105/200)
--[]Improved Tiberium Containment Facilities Development 0/40 1 die 25R 100%
--[]Railgun Harvester Factories
---[]Vladivostok 0/70 1 die 10R 71%
-[]Orbital Industry 5/5 100R
--[]GDSS Philadelphia II (Phase 5) 32/1425 5 dice 100R (median 5/20)
-[]Services 4/4 70R
--[] Green Zone Teacher Colleges 149/200 1 die 5R 86%
--[] Tissue Replacement Therapy Development 0/60 1 die 20R 82%
--[] Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Development 0/60 1 die 20R 78%
--[] Human Genetic Engineering Programs (New) 0/120 1 die 25R 18%
-[]Military 6/6 + 5 140R
--[] Long Range Sensor System Deployment (Phase 2) 26/300 2 dice 50R (median 2/4)
--[] Pacifier Mobile Artillery Vehicle Deployment 90/120 1 die 10R 100%
--[] Tube Artillery Deployment 184/200 1 die 15R 100%
--[] Shell Plants (Phase 4) 3/300 5 dice 50R 73%
--[] Naval Defense Laser Refits 270/330 1 die 15R 74%
--[] Security Review 1 die auto
-[]Bureaucracy 3/3
--[] Security Reviews
---[]Military 3 dice auto
740/740R, 7/7 Free Dice
Re: no free dice on Military, this is just about the worst time to be doing it, and Nod would rightly smack us with a clue-by-four if we tried it.
I mean, we have a truckload of consumables we could be rolling out. There is no possible future in which the military won't want more shells, missiles, and Ablat.
Ace of Scarabs
Mechanoid Pilot
- Location
- Singapore
They'll happily stockpile the surplus and trickle it down to secondline units. Just need to make sure NOD infiltrators don't steal any of the surplus.