Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

[doruma1920]

Well, there you go, then. Finishing Reykjavik a turn sooner means we have +8 more Capital Goods in the reserve than we otherwise would. That's not nothing, on top of other considerations.

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There is a reason why I think both strategies have valid points. As Lightwispers mentioned there is the chance of getting Bergen 4 in Q4, and an increased chance in Bergen 5 sooner. Let me run some numbers of my own real quick:

Spoiler: Math

Reykjavik 883/1100 Progress
The two dice strategy presupposes rolling 2 dice this turn then 1 die a turn after until completion. The three dice strategy presupposes rolling 3 dice this turn then 1 die a turn after until completion.
For 2 dice
2 dice: 17% Q3
For the 2 dice option to succeed we'd need a minimum roll of 144 (1100 - 883 - 15 - 29 * 2 = 144). That means on average, if we failed, we rolled a 72 (144/2) with 2 dice or a total progress of 130. Therefore on average our progress if we failed would be 883 + 130 = 1013/1100: 1 die 58% chance.
Combined with the chance of failure on the roll in Q3 that means we'd have a .83 * .58 = 48% chance of completing it in Q4 with this strategy.
Similar logic for Q1 2064: 1100 - 1013 - 15 - 29 = 43. Which means on average we roll a 21 in Q4 for a progress of 50. Therefore we are at 1063/1100. Which has a 100% chance of succeeding with 1 die. And therefore a .83 * .42 * 1 = 35% chance of occuring
Therefore the chance breakdown of when Reykjavik finishes for the 2 dice strategy is 17% Q3, 48% Q4, and 35% Q1 2064

For 3 dice
-3 dice: 76% Q3
For the 3 dice option to succeed we'd need a minimum roll of 115 (1100 - 883 - 15 - 29 * 3 = 115). That means on average, if we failed, we rolled a 57 with 3 dice or a total progress of 144. Therefore on average our progress, if we failed, would be 883 + 144 = 1027/1100: 1 die 72% chance.
Combined with the chance failure on the roll in Q3 that means we'd have a .24 * .72 = 17% chance of completing it in Q4 with this strategy.
Similar logic for Q1 2064: 1100 - 1027 - 15 - 29 = 29. Which means on average we roll a 14 in Q4 for a progress of 1070/1100. Which has a 100% chance of succeeding with 1 die. And therefore a .24 * .28 * 1 = 7% chance of occurring.
Therefore the chance breakdown of when Reykjavik finishes for the 3 dice strategy is 76% Q3, 17% Q4, 7% Q1 2064

This however doesn't factor in Bergen.

Applying the same logic discussed above to Bergen 4 with the caveat that it will either roll 1 die this turn and then the maximum number of dice until completion. If a die is needed for Reyjavik Bergen will roll 3 dice, if not it will roll 4.

Bergen 4: 235/640
For the 2 dice on Reykjavik strategy:
Bergen gets an average progress of 79 and therefore now has 314/640 Progress going into Q4.
If Reykjavik completed (17% chance) Bergen rolls 4 dice for 55% chance
In this case Bergen 4 needs a roll of 640 - 314 - 15 - 29 * 4 = 195, therefore the average failure roll is 97 for an average progress of 213. Therefore 527/640 Progress in Q1 2064 and a 100% chance of completing with 4 dice
If Reykjavik did not complete (83% chance) Bergen rolls 3 dice for 8% chance
In this case Bergen 4 needs a roll of 640 - 314 - 15 - 29 * 3 = 224, therefore the average failure roll is 112 for an average progress of 199. Therefore 523/640 Progress in Q1 2064 and a 100% chance of completing with 3 or 4 dice

Therefore we have a .17 * .55 + .83 * .08 = 16% chance of completing Bergen 4 in Q4 and a .17 * .45 * 1 + .83 * .92 * 1 = 84% chance of completing Bergen in Q1 2064

For the 3 dice on Reykjavik strategy:
Begen doesn't get any progress in Q3 and starts with 235/640 in Q4.
If Reykjavik completed (76% chance) Bergen rolls 4 dice for 11% chance
In this case Bergen 4 needs a roll of 640 - 235 - 15 - 29 * 4 = 274, therefore the average failure roll is 137 for an average progress of 253. Therefore 488/640 in Q4 and a 100% chance of completing with 4 dice.
If Reykjavik did not complete (24% chance) Bergen rolls 3 dice fo 0% chance and an average progress of 237. Therefore 472/640 Progress in Q4.
If Reykjavik completed in Q4 Bergen 4 has a 100% chance of completion with 4 dice in Q1
If Reykjavik did not complete in Q4 Bergen 4 has a 96% chance of completion in Q1 with 3 dice and a 100% chance of completion in Q2
Therefore we have an .76 * .11 + .24 * 0 = 8% chance of completing Bergen 4 in Q4, a .76 * .89 * 1 + .24 * 1 * .96 = 91% chance of completing Bergen 4 in Q1 2064 and a .24 *1 * .04 = 1% chance of completing Bergen 4 in Q2 2064.

I'd caveat the above numbers acknowledging that I'm playing fast and loose with probabilities and the 'average failed progress' is likely not accurate, but given I didn't want to run the full numbers and this still took me a hot minute to do it, they should be close enough.

Therefore our table breakdown is:
-Where Average Capital Goods equals the chance of completion that quarter times the amount of Capital Goods produced
-Where Total Average Capital Goods equals the sum of the Average Capital Goods of each quarter times the number of quarters to the end of Q2 2064. For Example: the Total Average for 2 dice Reykjavik is 1.36 * 4 turns + 3.84 * 3 turns + 2.8 * 2 turns = 22.56 Capital Goods
-Where Reykjavik's Capital Goods are 8 and Bergen 4's are 4.

	Chance of Completing Q3	Average Q3 Capital Goods	Chance of Completing Q4	Average Q4 Capital Goods	Chance of Completing Q1 2064	Average Q1 2064 Capital Goods	Chance of Completing Q2	Average Q2 0264 Capital Goods	Total Average Capital goods
2 dice (Reykjavik)	17%	.17 * 8 = 1.36	48%	.48 * 8 = 3.84	35%	.35 * 8 = 2.8	Done	-	22.56
2 dice (Bergen 4)	0	0 * 4 = 0	16%	.16 * 4 = 0.64	84%	.84 * 4 = 3.36	Done	-	8.64
Total 2 dice Capital Goods									31.2
3 dice (Reykjavik)	76%	.76 * 8 = 6.08	17%	.17 * 8 = 1.36	7%	.07 * 8 = .56	Done	-	29.52
3 dice (Bergen 4)	0	0 * 4 = 0	8%	.08 * 4 = .32	91%	.91 * 4 = 3.64	1%	.01 * 4 = .04	8.28
Total 3 dice Capital Goods									37.8

This implies we should expect ~6.6 additional Capital Goods in the reserve with 3 dice on Reykjavik

This is personally convincing for the 3 dice strategy getting us more Capital Goods sooner on average. I realise my methodology is not something I'd submit for a paper or an assignment, but it is close enough.

Could you expand on your reasoning here?

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Sure. The QM said:
'It is going to be producing mfcs, it is going to be making a difference. The issue is that it is not producing enough to be obviously visible indicator wise, or on immediately visible projects.'
From this we can state that:
-It is producing Micro Fusion Cells and it is going to make a difference. Therefore it is having an effect.
-It is not producing enough to be visible on our economic indicators. The effect is not visible at our current level of economic abstraction
-It is not producing enough to be visible on immediately visible projects. The effect is not visible on the currently available projects. This implies that it would be visible on a project that is not yet present. Such as a platform development project, where the progress cost for the design is still the same, but the cost of production would change.

From Microfusion Cell Laboratories project description:
'there are many jobs where the sheer energy density of an MFC would be useful both to the military and more civil administrations.'
From MF
From Microfusion Cell Development project description:
'advent of ever more power hungry personal systems, ranging from energy weapons, to personal tools for space construction.'
From Microfusion Cell Development project results:
'The first generation microfusion cell is about two meters long, making it only 'micro' in comparison to the full-scale generators. While the fuel and fusion cells are only about fifty centimeters long between them, the vast majority of the unit is the direct energy conversion system, using a series of electrostatic converters. Although the unit is an inconvenient size and shape for many things, it can provide a substantial amount of power pretty much anywhere in the Solar system, in a package significantly smaller than a standard issue fission or large scale fusion reactor.'

We can therefore assume that the Laboratories are creating either 1st Generation Cells (2 meters), or 2nd Generation Cells (estimated 50% reduction in size from 1st Gen by Researcher Kota). The hypothesized second generation design is still a meter long, that is way too big for even space use, as that would be a 1 meter long probably not rail thin fusion generator on your back, we would then need to add radiation protection, both for cosmic activity and for the generator as 'it does tend to spit out high-energy particulates at times' (from Microfusion Cell Development project results), add cooling/radiating systems for the amount of heat that thing is generating, other life support equipment, hook ups for the various tools the astronaut would use. Using the MFC on a spacesuit in its 1st or 2nd Gen iterations would result in less a spacesuit and more a 3-4 meter mecha. And at that point you might as well a vehicle then a spacesuit. The generators as currently described aren't small enough to act as a Fallout microfusion cell. That is where the tech is going to lead I'm sure, but it is not there yet.

Personally, I'd like to wait on Alloys Phase 6 for that. That's the phase where we start turning out alloy blades in large quantities, and the most immediately obvious application for that is "hard-rock tiberium-resistant mining equipment." It may make vein mines specifically easier by giving us a superior alternative to the known Nod-style harvesting claws we were already using.

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I've no objections, the timeline will likely work out for that in any event.

 

[Simon_Jester]

As I said earlier, if the plan is to use Reykjavik's +8 CG to immediately afterwards give the remaining 10 CGs to the Market, or to implement the Predictive Modeling Management, then as those both give greater benefits the sooner we finish them, I can support putting 3 dice on Reykjavik for that reason.

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I mean, I hadn't made firm specific plans for what to do with the Capital Goods because I try not to treat my hopes for what we do THIS turn as 100% binding on what we do next turn. But putting the capital goods in the market is something I'm comfortable with. I'm iffy on predictive modeling because I think people overestimate its value somewhat, but that's an objection to the project more so than to the price tag with Reykjavik coming up to offset the costs.

I just haven't been trying to wheel-and-deal by saying "look, let me do this and I promise to do that."

 

[bigking321]

Is it really sprinting a project when the debate is 2 dice and a 17% chance or 3 dice and a 76% chance? Even with three that's a 24% chance of not completing. That seems like a perfectly reasonable place for a dice.

Now all four would be crazy. But boosting a 17% to 76%? Yeah. Absolutely. That's not overkill or anything.

 

[HousePet]

(For the other stuff: The main obstacle to the market getting more Capital Goods is that our excess CGs each turn are going into the CG reserve. Once the reserve reaches a healthy level, then we'll be able to switch our excess CGs back over to the market. And I heavily doubt we're going to be giving Nod CGs anytime soon because a point of CG is way more limited for us than +5 RpT, and also CGs are often used for producing military hardware.)

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Thankfully we have that button for giving out the Capital Goods.
I would be nice if we knew how big a stockpile they wanted. -_-

Overall it isn't a huge deal, but I think this is one of those situations where trying to squeeze the dice down to the absolute minimum isn't even worth the brainpower we spend on it.

It is going to be producing mfcs, it is going to be making a difference. The issue is that it is not producing enough to be obviously visible indicator wise, or on immediately visible projects.

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Thanks. I found the description a little big vague.


Hrm. MFC would certainly fit on a Governor...

 

[bigking321]

So it looks like the only stuff we have that burns ps are...

1. Emergency Caloric Reclamation Processor Installations (Phase 2)
With a first wave of Caloric Reclamation Processors built and deployed, a second wave will not be too difficult. However, it is likely to result in political pushback, especially without further expansions to strategic food stockpiles.
(Progress 31/75: 10 resources per die) (+5 Food in reserve) (-5 Political Support)

2. Caloric Reclamation Processor (Phase 1)
While incredibly politically unpopular, Caloric Reclamation systems can make existing food production go much further, taking otherwise wasted foods and turning them into shelf stable noodles and bricks for later consumption.
(Progress 0/70: 10 resources per die) (+6 Food, +2 Food in reserve) (-10 Political Support)
(Progress 0/70: 10 resources per die) (+6 Food, +2 Food in reserve) (-15 Political Support)

3. Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 3)
For many in the Initiative, liquid Tiberium is nearly existentially terrifying. Between the destruction of Central Australia, the consequences of the detonation of Temple Prime, and the ongoing devastation caused by Red Zones around the world, continuing to push liquid Tiberium energy is likely to be a bridge too far for many in the Initiative, even with the cover of the Director on your side.
(Progress 4/120: 20 resources per die) (-10 Political Support) (+10 Energy)

4. Enhanced Harvest Tiberium Spikes (Platform)
Developing a model of Tiberium Spike that not only harvests Tiberium but also marginally speeds its growth is a quite radical idea. Based on GDI's work with the Tiberium Inhibitor and experience with the Scrin's Growth Accelerators, it would substantially increase the throughput, but at the risk of spreading Tiberium more quickly.
(Progress 0/180: 20 resources per die) (-5 Political Support per die) (MS)

5. Forgotten Experimentation
While active human experiments are a step too far for the Initiative, the Forgotten are themselves an interesting case, and specifically the causes of their mutations. Initiative scientists believe that they can find a common root cause of their changes, and more broadly examine commonalities in genetic, chemical, and other makeup, with the long term goal of finding means of reliably offering a means other than tiberian infusion to survive exposure to the crystal.
(Progress 0/260: 30 resources per die) (MS) (-5 Political Support)

6. Trade Programs
While gray and black market trade with the Brotherhood of Nod and its various fronts around the world have never really closed, there have been few times when an active trade can be carried out in a legitimate manner. While GDI is near completely unwilling to make significant concessions, there is some trade that can be conducted, especially through channels opened by recent talks.
(-5 PS per option taken)(Options can be taken multiple times)
-[ ] Sell Consumer Goods: +5 Resources per Turn, -10 Consumer Goods
-[ ] Sell Energy: +5 Resources per Turn, -2 Energy
-[ ] Sell Capital Goods: +5 Resources per Turn, -1 Capital Goods
-[ ] Purchase STUs : -80 Resources per Turn, +1 STU per Turn.

And... that's all we had last plan.

I think some of these are broadly unpopular and even if we did all of them that would put us in the 60-80 ps range after we finish the stations and such.

So... what do we do? Any ps over a hundred degrades so I would rather use it than lose it. But I don't really want to do tib power or harvest spikes. And most everyone else doesn't want to touch CRP. I'm quite nervous about trading with Nod and not sure it's worth it. So that only leaves forgotten experiments and it's -5 ps.

Is there anything else we can do with ps?

 

[HousePet]

The whole point of Seo and things that cost PS, is that they are crazy and unpopular.

I think the Tib options are very in character for Seo, and Harvesting Spikes should be interesting. We don't have to deploy them if we don't like what they come up with.

If we just don't want to do anything risky, let the PS burn. Its only use is for unpopular things. We lose nothing by not using the excess PS if we aren't going to use it anyway.

 

[bigking321]

If we just don't want to do anything risky, let the PS burn. Its only use is for unpopular things. We lose nothing by not using the excess PS if we aren't going to use it anyway.

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It just rubs me the wrong way.

Ps is a resource. We earn it and can spend it like anything else.

Just letting it go to waste... feels bad.

 

[Nottheunmaker]

It is bad. It's playing against what Seo is supposed to be good at. I favor the Tiberium Spikes for testing if nothing else, and I have hopes Inferno Gel will return and we can spend it there. Forgotten Experimentation is something we should do.

There's also upcoming projects. We've finished the first round of Human Genetic Augmentation. That one was no muss, no fuss. But we have access to Nod's Genetic Augmentation, so more unpopular ones will become become available, probably soon. We seem to roll well when we start playing with himan DNA. We've also got some stuff for Nod Cybernetics in the pipes, but those might not be available in time to spend excess PS on.

 

[Hazard]

Also, there is this thing where Seo must indulge in his love for mad science at least once per year.

 

[Phht]

Something I realized recently - we have the Dept of Munitions now. Which means if we develop Inferno Gel... it WILL get deployed whatever our feelings on it. We're going to need to be careful with -PS munitions programs, or we might eat more -PS than we meant to.

--

On MS choice... I'd accept either Forgotten Experiments or Enhanced Harvest Tib Spike development. And if we need to burn PS, E-CRP is definitely a choice I'd accept.

 

[doruma1920]

Something I realized recently - we have the Dept of Munitions now. Which means if we develop Inferno Gel... it WILL get deployed whatever our feelings on it. We're going to need to be careful with -PS munitions programs, or we might eat more -PS than we meant to.

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Inferno Gel will be good against the knock-off buzzers I seem to recall NOD deploying. Plus against the actual buzzers of the Visitors if the ever return.

 

[Hazard]

Inferno Gel is, like many things, merely a tool we can put in the box, and there are certainly places to deploy it.

It's pretty good against swarms of gana and other lightly armoured targets, for example.

 

[Vehrec]

I dunno.

If it can help mechs and zone suits then it's probably worth the three dice to try and finish it this turn.

If whatever improvements can kick in before Karachi so much the better.

I remember our giant mech was having a difficult time walking with all the tech on it. Improved myomers would probably help.

Plus whatever civilian or industrial uses. It seems like a major benefit to cybernetics. The eye one called them out specifically.

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but are we doing any mech or Zone Suit projects in two turns? If not, it doesn't seem to be urgent.

 

[bigking321]

but are we doing any mech or Zone Suit projects in two turns? If not, it doesn't seem to be urgent.

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Any improvements that come from it wouldn't just affect new projects. We just did a whole bunch of power armor and have a couple mech lines. Any improvements would go to them as well.

 

[HousePet]

^ This.
Myomers aren't for building the factories. They are for feeding the factories. Repairs and replacements are ongoing.

 

[Mazeka]

There was a discussion on Discord and SB regarding the GDI Commander from Tiberium Wars concerning the aftermath of the Ion Cannon strike on Temple Prime and the subsequent 2-gigaton Liquid-T explosion.

The commander in all likelihood lost the entirety of their task force, with the only survivors being a handful of wounded and their command staff. Subsequently, the commander would have possibly suffered extreme guilt for the death of their troops, the possibly-irreversible contamination of Southern Europe, and the estimated millions of civilian casualties resulting from the 2-gigaton explosion and the chain reaction Tiberium field detonations. And this is all before the Scrin start making planetfall and cause further wartime casualties, mind you.

When Granger orders us to turn the tide against the Scrin, he specifically notes: "You seem to want that responsibility." The GDI Commander was chomping at the bit to make things right.

We probably haven't heard from the TW3 GDI Commander because they are either keeping a low profile, formally retired from active duty, or both.

 

[TheFourthman]

There was a discussion on Discord and SB regarding the GDI Commander from Tiberium Wars concerning the aftermath of the Ion Cannon strike on Temple Prime and the subsequent 2-gigaton Liquid-T explosion.

The commander in all likelihood lost the entirety of their task force, with the only survivors

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Where on SB was this discussion?

 

[Mazeka]

Where on SB was this discussion?

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Fanfics in the name of Kane! C&C idea thread

When Boyle ordered the Ion Cannon deployment on Sarajevo in Tiberium Wars, how many friendly troops did the GDI Commander lose in the Liquid-T blast? Giraud had estimated an initial 2 gigaton explosion followed by "self-sustaining exothermic reactions" (i.e. widespread Tiberium deposit detonations).

forums.spacebattles.com

 

[Vehrec]

Any improvements that come from it wouldn't just affect new projects. We just did a whole bunch of power armor and have a couple mech lines. Any improvements would go to them as well.

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would delaying these moderate improvements by one quarter be catastrophic?

 

[Lightwhispers]

We probably haven't heard from the TW3 GDI Commander because they are either keeping a low profile, formally retired from active duty, or both.

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As of a couple years ago, the GDI TW3 commander was in the list of possible assassination targets, so I am presuming they are working as part of the GDI Joint Chiefs of the Armed Forces, probably as head or understudy of one of the branches.

Mostly they suffer from "not relevant to the Treasury-itis".

would delaying these moderate improvements by one quarter be catastrophic?

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I presume not, but there is also the consideration that the probability of completion with only 2 dice is legitimately low enough to make 3 arguably worthwhile. Hence the argument over it. (I am currently slightly in favor of 2 dice, but not by enough to make it anything close to a deciding factor.)

 

[bigking321]

would delaying these moderate improvements by one quarter be catastrophic?

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Maybe. Maybe not.

Keep in mind even with 3 dice there is a 24% chance of not finishing the project.

No one is trying to guarantee finishing it next turn. Just have a decent chance of finishing.

With two dice there is only a 17% chance of not needing to put another dice or two into it. With 3 there is a 76% chance of that.

Shrug. We might over shoot it a bit but the odds are pretty good that 3 dice is fine.

 

[Phht]

The commander in all likelihood lost the entirety of their task force, with the only survivors being a handful of wounded and their command staff. Subsequently, the commander would have possibly suffered extreme guilt for the death of their troops, the possibly-irreversible contamination of Southern Europe, and the estimated millions of civilian casualties resulting from the 2-gigaton explosion and the chain reaction Tiberium field detonations. And this is all before the Scrin start making planetfall and cause further wartime casualties, mind you.

When Granger orders us to turn the tide against the Scrin, he specifically notes: "You seem to want that responsibility." The GDI Commander was chomping at the bit to make things right.

We probably haven't heard from the TW3 GDI Commander because they are either keeping a low profile, formally retired from active duty, or both.

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Alternately - and more depressing - it's entirely possible they're dead. I'd point to the commanding officer of the Lost Battalion. After acting as pallbearer for the interring of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington in 1921, he committed suicide by jumping overboard off a ship bound for Cuba.

There's also the "died in combat" some time in the last decade instead.

As of a couple years ago, the GDI TW3 commander was in the list of possible assassination targets, so I am presuming they are working as part of the GDI Joint Chiefs of the Armed Forces, probably as head or understudy of one of the branches.

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Well, thank god for that at least.

 

[Ithillid]

They mostly suffer from not relevant to the Treasury, and I don't feel like I have a good story to tell with them. Currently right below the jcos.

 

[Mazeka]

They mostly suffer from not relevant to the Treasury, and I don't feel like I have a good story to tell with them. Currently right below the jcos.

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Honestly, I think they'd prefer it that way.

They no longer have to shoulder major responsibilities of commanding combat troops, and instead have a nice quiet desk job at a relatively high rank with sufficiently-garnered respect and honors. Plus, the pay's probably good enough for them to choose their therapist.

 

[Simon_Jester]

would delaying these moderate improvements by one quarter be catastrophic?

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No, but then, the odds are that the consequences of not having one extra Light Industry die to play with next quarter won't be catastrophic either. We might get a Bergen phase a quarter sooner, maybe, that way. Or it might not. Depends on how things play out. Some other project might happen a quarter sooner. Hard to say.

This is kind of a tempest-in-teapot issue; it's not a disaster if Reykjavik finishes in 2063Q4 (or worst case, 2064Q1) because we slow-walked it, but it's also not a disaster if it turns out we wasted one of the three Light Industry dice we spent on the last project we're actually required to complete in that entire category, which gets done before Election Day, let alone before the end of the Plan.

Bergen's nice and all, but we're building it because it's nice, not because it's a hair-on-fire mega-necessity that we have to do everything in our power to spend on as heavily as possible.