Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

Derpmind · Jan 10, 2022

As much as I've not been a fan of it in the past, we can do one die security reviews. They're at a 90% chance of success now with all our bonuses lined up, and Ithillid has told us a failure by itself won't result in something awful happening. That means we can do a Bureaucracy security review with only two dice instead of three dice, as long as we're willing to accept a 10% chance of needing to run it again. (And doing so leaves room for an AA die or one/two other security reviews.)

Lightwhispers · Jan 10, 2022

Simon_Jester said:
Since we're not likely to want a North Boston beeline, we have enough wiggle room in Heavy Industry to be confident of building fusion plants fast enough that we don't really need Administrative Assistance and can carry forward.

My current plans have Bureaucracy doing a self-review. Those take three Bureaucracy dice and thus cannot be done alongside of anything else big in Bureaucracy (including security reviews).

We'll want to do a HI review shortly, because my tentative plans have us doing 2-3 phases of Vein Mining per quarter starting Q3, and that will mean we want *tons* of CapGoods. On the other hand, that's 20-30 RpT per phase, which means 📈

Taliys · Jan 10, 2022

IMHO better to do Boston5 in this plan. It will take a 1.5 year, and for this time we should have enough goods from Nuuk-3, light industry, enterprise, and current stocks.

But if we reach Boston until the end of the plan, its creation will take 3.5-4 years, after the reallocation of resources then. And in any case, we need his bonuses and AI help, even taking into account isolinear calculations

Simon_Jester · Jan 10, 2022

Derpmind said:
As much as I've not been a fan of it in the past, we can do one die security reviews. They're at a 90% chance of success now with all our bonuses lined up, and Ithillid has told us a failure by itself won't result in something awful happening. That means we can do a Bureaucracy security review with only two dice instead of three dice, as long as we're willing to accept a 10% chance of needing to run it again. (And doing so leaves room for an AA die or one/two other security reviews.)

Let's just say that I'm uncomfortable gambling on the specific security review responsible for checking the department that does the security reviews.

Lightwhispers said:
We'll want to do a HI review shortly, because my tentative plans have us doing 2-3 phases of Vein Mining per quarter starting Q3, and that will mean we want *tons* of CapGoods. On the other hand, that's 20-30 RpT per phase, which means 📈

I mean.

Yes, although...

We're getting to the part of the Plan where our RpT income is rapidly converging on our Plan targets, where we have little or no trouble funding all our dice... I think it's time to pivot from focusing on income generation to focusing on mitigation, and vein mining isn't a very efficient way to do mitigation.

The point where we really want to aggressively crank out vein mines from a massive Capital Goods surplus is 2062, because that means we won't have to do a huge aggressive (Logistics-expensive, ZOCOM-straining) jump forward into the Red Zones to recover a reasonable-sized budget after reapportionment.

So I'd rather leave the Cap Goods surplus in place and use it that way later, though that doesn't mean I'm against doing, say, 4-5 initial phases of vein mining before that point in 2060-61.

Taliys said:
IMHO better to do Boston5 in this plan. It will take a 1.5 year, and for this time we should have enough goods from Nuuk-3, light industry, enterprise, and current stocks.

If we're serious about doing North Boston Phase 5, we're serious enough to get it done in about four turns with investment of Free dice.

Or to at least get it close to done in 2060-61 and then wrap it up in early 2062. We don't have literally zero budget for Heavy Industry in a low-income environment, after all.

Derpmind · Jan 10, 2022

Simon_Jester said:
Let's just say that I'm uncomfortable gambling on the specific security review responsible for checking the department that does the security reviews.

Ithillid clarified that failed security reviews don't do anything bad on their own. It only leads to worse outcomes if we happen to roll a natural 1 in the security review or the department undergoing the review. (And using one die for a review instead of two actually half our chances of a review rolling a natural 1. Which has happened to us before.) If we fail a security review normally, we can simply do the same review the turn after with no awful consequences.

At a 90% success chance, I think doing one-die security reviews will save us more dice than it costs us.

Mre · Jan 10, 2022

Simon_Jester said:
The point where we really want to aggressively crank out vein mines from a massive Capital Goods surplus is 2062, because that means we won't have to do a huge aggressive (Logistics-expensive, ZOCOM-straining) jump forward into the Red Zones to recover a reasonable-sized budget after reapportionment.

So I'd rather leave the Cap Goods surplus in place and use it that way later, though that doesn't mean I'm against doing, say, 4-5 initial phases of vein mining before that point in 2060-61.

Another benefit to doing it this way is that the QM has stated that maintaining a large surplus of capitol goods instead of spending as soon as we get them unlocks new projects, so it's a good way to at least get visibility on those projects.

bigking321 · Jan 10, 2022

I feel the urgency of Boston 5 has dropped dramatically since we know we have several years and isolinear chips to deal with.

I'm more concerned with the upcoming information on the war. We're going to find out what we are dealing with and what we need to do to fight it.

Depending on what we learn or the damages from attacks we might need to blow through our capital goods deploying countermeasures to whatever or fixing things.

A lot depends on the war situation.

Simon_Jester · Jan 10, 2022

Derpmind said:
Ithillid clarified that failed security reviews don't do anything bad on their own. It only leads to worse outcomes if we happen to roll a natural 1 in the security review or the department undergoing the review. (And using one die for a review instead of two actually half our chances of a review rolling a natural 1. Which has happened to us before.) If we fail a security review normally, we can simply do the same review the turn after with no awful consequences.

At a 90% success chance, I think doing one-die security reviews will save us more dice than it costs us.

Eh, maybe.

I'm not really feeling the urgency of doing Administrative Assistance this turn, though. Most of our projects either have acceptable/good chances of success this turn, or don't NEED to succeed this turn, or we don't actually know their stats and so it's infeasible to predict the impact of Administrative Assistance and whether it's really worth bothering with.

Crazycryodude · Jan 10, 2022

Administrative assistance is a really wasteful way to spend both dice and money, it's a desperation move not something we should be using every turn. I think the Bureau actions for an economic census/population census are both being slept on too long at this point. We should at minimum actually get the economic coordinating body for all of GDI a decent picture of what the economy looks like, right now the non-state sector is a big ol' ??? and there's honestly probably even nominal parts of the state sector that just got lost in the chaos and we're flying blind on.

Lightwhispers · Jan 10, 2022

Taliys said:
IMHO better to do Boston5 in this plan. It will take a 1.5 year, and for this time we should have enough goods from Nuuk-3, light industry, enterprise, and current stocks.

But if we reach Boston until the end of the plan, its creation will take 3.5-4 years, after the reallocation of resources then. And in any case, we need his bonuses and AI help, even taking into account isolinear calculations

I'm confused about why you think it will take that long to do a less-than-30 die, 15R/die project, unless you are referring to a lack of Resources. Unless you mean 3.5-4 years from now.

Simon_Jester said:
Yes, although...

We're getting to the part of the Plan where our RpT income is rapidly converging on our Plan targets, where we have little or no trouble funding all our dice... I think it's time to pivot from focusing on income generation to focusing on mitigation, and vein mining isn't a very efficient way to do mitigation.

The point where we really want to aggressively crank out vein mines from a massive Capital Goods surplus is 2062, because that means we won't have to do a huge aggressive (Logistics-expensive, ZOCOM-straining) jump forward into the Red Zones to recover a reasonable-sized budget after reapportionment.

So I'd rather leave the Cap Goods surplus in place and use it that way later, though that doesn't mean I'm against doing, say, 4-5 initial phases of vein mining before that point in 2060-61.

The thing is, we're rapidly approaching the point where we can generate Capital Goods faster than we can use them on Vein Mining. Nuuk 3 is +16 CapGoods, and will finish Q2 or Q3 depending on luck and how many dice we allocate. Nuuk 4 will take an average of 16 dice, so I presume 3 turns, for +32 Capital Goods. Even if it takes 4 turns due to having to divert dice to produce Energy, that's completed before reallocation - we'll need to do so to complete our plan goals.
I'm really not concerned about how we will be doing the "rapid income growth" phase after reallocation. While doing mitigation is a good idea, keeping pushing +Income is also quite worthwhile. Our plan goals mean we're likely to be starting the next plan with 500+ Resources per turn at 25%, 600+ at 30%, which means we wouldn't have to push nearly as hard on that initial phase, and if we can get even more, that will help even things out more. (I fully expect that Q4 2061 we'll do maximum RZ Harvesting to prep for a Max Glacier Rush Q1 2062, but that's expected from the Treasury now.)

Oleg-14191 · Jan 10, 2022

Nuuk 4 will require 2 more stages of fusion, unless we we are willing to cut back on Energy consumption or invest in Tib Power.

Derpmind · Jan 10, 2022

If we have enough Capital Goods buildup, in Q1 2062 we'll have the option to do mass Vein Mining. With 14 dice, we could do an average of 6-7 Vein Mines a turn, especially as each time we do one, the progress needed goes down by 5 points. (To some limit, I'm sure.) Unlike Glaciers, Vein Mines don't require completing RZ Harvesting or any military commitment. The only overhead is Capital Goods, and it's possible we could gain quite the excess amount of those by the end of this Plan.

Also, doing a bunch of Vein Mines will open up YZ Boreholes. No idea how good those will be, but they sound fun.

Oleg-14191 · Jan 10, 2022

Lightwhispers said:
Income: 935 + 20 Reserve

Shouldn't it be 940?
925+10 from 2 stages of YZ Harvesting and another +5 from Maputo?

Lightwhispers · Jan 10, 2022

Oleg-14191 said:
Shouldn't it be 940?
925+10 from 2 stages of YZ Harvesting and another +5 from Maputo?

We only completed 1 phase of YZ Harvesting. (We completed phase 6. We have 183/300 on Phase 7.)

Edit: and Nuuk 3+4 takes the energy from 1 phase of Fusion plants, since each requires 8 Energy. I don't see how you are getting that Nuuk 4 would require the output of 2 phases.

Taliys · Jan 10, 2022

Lightwhispers said:
I'm confused about why you think it will take that long to do a less-than-30 die, 15R/die project, unless you are referring to a lack of Resources. Unless you mean 3.5-4 years from now.

Ignoring Boston until the end of the plan (1.75 years) - half a year to restore income, 1.5 year to build.

As a result, 3.5-4 and we get.

BOTcommander · Jan 10, 2022

SCEDQuest vote closed
[X] Plan Heist + Lunar Base Go!
-[X] Facilities
--[X] New Johnson Training Center (Stage 5) 3 dice 75C 92%
--[X] Tartarus Satellite - free E-IP 10C 10LC
--[X] Advanced Lunar Base Stage 2 10/10 Facilities 50C 50LC 50 E-IP
-[X] Assembly
--[X] Tiberium Heist Transfer Drone 10 E-IP
--[X] Tiberium Heist Extractor probe 10 E-IP
-[X] Development
--[X] Grav Plate Rover Integration 0/250 1 die 8C 8 E-IP (1/3.5 median)
--[X] Radiation Shimmer Shield Development 0/100 2 dice 16C 16 E-IP 83%
--[X] Mark II Fusion Engine 188/300 2 dice 10C 16 E-IP 75%
--[X] He3-extraction Experiments 44/100 1 die 2C 1 E-IP 65%
-[X] Mission Planning
--[X] Craterscope 254/300 2 dice 94%
--[X] Mission: Orbital Scan Saturn 1 die
--[X] Mission: Orbital Scan Saturn's rings + minor moons 1 die
-[X] Missions
--[X] Tiberium Heist 12 P-Days
--[X] Rover Delivery-Mars x2 13 P-Days 8 E-IP 4C 2LC
--[X] Belt Probing x9 16+45 P-Days
--[X] Test Asteroid Collection

181C/125C (-56C from reserves), 62/80 Launch Capacity, 119/120 Earth-Industry Points, 86/90 Pathfinder Days

Lightwhispers · Jan 10, 2022

Taliys said:
Ignoring Boston until the end of the plan (1.75 years) - half a year to restore income, 1.5 year to build.

As a result, 3.5-4 and we get.

So, time from now, not time from starting work on it. Check. (The way you initially phrased it read like you meant time from starting building it.)
Although given North Boston is one of the cheaper HI projects at 15R/die, and that we're likely to start the plan at ~600 Resources of income, I don't agree that we'd have to wait half a year.

Voidseer · Jan 10, 2022

BOTcommander said:
threw 100-faced dice Reason: He3-extraction Experiments Total: 66

Finally a break and exactly the amount we need. :tongue:

Nottheunmaker · Jan 10, 2022

Oleg-14191 said:
Nuuk 4 will require 2 more stages of fusion, unless we we are willing to cut back on Energy consumption or invest in Tib Power.

I'm always willing to invest in Tib power. Indeed, I say the sooner the better, after they've sat for a while with nothing going wrong the political cost is likely to drop off, while also being faster and cheaper to build.

Lightwhispers · Jan 10, 2022

SCED Mathpost:
New Johnson Training Center (Stage 5) 438/400
Grav Plate Rover Integration 38/250
Radiation Shimmer Shield Development 188/100
Mark II Fusion Engine 343/300
He3-extraction Experiments 120/100
Craterscope 420/300
Orbital Scan Saturn Autosuccess
Orbital Scan Saturn's rings + minor moons Autosuccess

Everything that was expected to completed, hover-rovers didn't make much progress but that's okay. Looks like the Tib Heist went well, but disappointing rolls for Mars prospecting.

Results:
+Space Cadets
+L2 Tib Containment (With included Tiberium Venera sample)
+Moonbase Facilities
+Radiation Shielding
+Fusion Advances
+Craterscope plans
+Asteroid, gift-wrapped, 1 (Contents: 5 Resources)

Simon_Jester · Jan 10, 2022

Lightwhispers said:
I'm confused about why you think it will take that long to do a less-than-30 die, 15R/die project, unless you are referring to a lack of Resources. Unless you mean 3.5-4 years from now.

The thing is, we're rapidly approaching the point where we can generate Capital Goods faster than we can use them on Vein Mining. Nuuk 3 is +16 CapGoods, and will finish Q2 or Q3 depending on luck and how many dice we allocate. Nuuk 4 will take an average of 16 dice, so I presume 3 turns, for +32 Capital Goods. Even if it takes 4 turns due to having to divert dice to produce Energy, that's completed before reallocation - we'll need to do so to complete our plan goals.

I mean yeah, I'm anticipating huge Capital Goods boosts in 2060-61.

It's just that it's kind of a waste of time to do a vein mine in, say, 2061Q2 when we're only gonna get the +20 RpT income for like two turns, after which reallocation hits and we only get +7 RpT from it. When we could instead do something that provides more mitigation and is enduring.

Which do you want more, to spend -1 Capital Goods on a vein mine and get full benefit for 2-3 turns, or to spend the same -1 Capital Goods on a vein mine and get the full benefit for 14-15 turns?

I'm really not concerned about how we will be doing the "rapid income growth" phase after reallocation. While doing mitigation is a good idea, keeping pushing +Income is also quite worthwhile. Our plan goals mean we're likely to be starting the next plan with 500+ Resources per turn at 25%, 600+ at 30%, which means we wouldn't have to push nearly as hard on that initial phase...

At this point, 600 RpT falls a long way short of letting us activate all our dice on reasonably appealing projects.

BOTcommander · Jan 10, 2022

So time to reveal what you got this turn.
5 Bonus Resources from the Asteroid Test, but only this once. Don't expect the SCED to use Pathfinder to carry Asteroids the whole time.
Fusion Engine MK II unlocks Leopard MK II Development and Union Fabricator Development. The Leo will get sub-projects for a passenger and a VIP variant.
Rad shields unlocks Atmospheric Containment Shields Development and Micrometeorite Shield Development.
1 Tiberium Venera sample for the Treasury.

trooperist · Jan 10, 2022

The Tib Heist rolls look promising. Only one dice below a 50. And we completed most of our research, at least the stuff that had a chance of completing. Third times the charm for He3 experiments. We're going to need a whole new set of research projects, especially since we just got another dice for Development.

EDIT: BOTcommander NOD shadowed me.

Lightwhispers · Jan 10, 2022

Simon_Jester said:
I mean yeah, I'm anticipating huge Capital Goods boosts in 2060-61.

It's just that it's kind of a waste of time to do a vein mine in, say, 2061Q2 when we're only gonna get the +20 RpT income for like two turns, after which reallocation hits and we only get +7 RpT from it. When we could instead do something that provides more mitigation and is enduring.

Which do you want more, to spend -1 Capital Goods on a vein mine and get full benefit for 2-3 turns, or to spend the same -1 Capital Goods on a vein mine and get the full benefit for 14-15 turns?

At this point, 600 RpT falls a long way short of letting us activate all our dice on reasonably appealing projects.

At that point, I don't see it as an either-or, but that we will have enough Capital Goods that it's "get some Resources or do something else."
And yeah, it's not enough for what we want to do, but it's enough to fill out most of our dice with things that are useful.

Edit due to BOT interrupt: editing resultsposts, because it turns out inside that gift-wrapping was MONEY!

KlavoHunter · Jan 10, 2022

BOTcommander said:
1 Tiberium Venera sample for the Treasury.

Congrats on the Venusian tib heist! Can't wait to study it

Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

Altman be praised

Cinnamon Roll AI

THOU SHALT WORSHIP NO GODS ABOVE ENTERPRISE!