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Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

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What is the chance that Ulthuan is willing to fight War of Vengeance 2.0 over something that does not directly annex their territory in Marienburg vs the chance that a major threat to the empire occurs in the next 5 years (which is what, 10 turns?)? I see the latter as much more likely.
 
something something this will be over by christmas (tm)

or even better, something something nothing can go wrong with archduke travelling to serbia, everyone would not want it all to escalate merely to honour their defensive agreements

Conflicts and defensive networks do not handle escalation that well. Or, rather, they handle it too well. :V
 
Sir Bidoof said:
I think people are seriously underestimating how serious a threat to the empire the lack of trade is.
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How important was trade IRL actually in this type of era (renaissance I think)? I thought that especially large nations were relatively self-sufficient back then, with trade having a more supplemental role and providing luxury goods. But I'm no historian.
 
ctulhuslp said:
Yall making a fundamental flawed assumption there: that Dwarfs will win.
They can, but there is no guarantee there. There is no such thing as certainty in war.

And generally, what y'all doing is engaging in borderline memetic degree of "short victorious war". Those are very rarely either of those two adjectives, and great continent-spanning wars that decimated Empires started over less more than once. Tensions and conflicts have this annoying tendency to escalate wildly beyond control of any of the actors once they've started.
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Counterpoint: The Chamberlain just finished emphasizing exactly how many wars the Empire is currently embroiled in.
Significantly weakening the Empire, as well as the Karaz Ankor, could turn all of those into stalemates or outright losses for the next five years. 10 failed wars, to avoid committing to 1. The only solution to which would still be to break Marienburg's blockade, after having already hamstrung the economy.
 
MooseHowl said:
Counterpoint: The Chamberlain just finished emphasizing exactly how many wars the Empire is currently embroiled in.
Significantly weakening the Empire, as well as the Karaz Ankor, could turn all of those into stalemates or outright losses for the next five years. 10 failed wars, to avoid committing to 1. The only solution to which would still be to break Marienburg's blockade, after having already hamstrung the economy.
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This, yet again (thanks for illustrating my point about just up and assuming quick victory, very self-demonstrating of you) assumes that dwarfs win the war, do it very quickly and with relatively small losses in manpower and other resources for Empire.
Otherwise you just add 11th war to the list, one with the major trade power which may or may not (we have no idea, which is !!FUN!!) have defensive alliance with Ulthuan.
 
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Erandil said:
Pretty sure that for quite some time Marienburg will still hold the advantage simply because a lot of the actual oceangoing traders are Marienburgers and the whole system is set up with Marienburg as the key centre of trade, a canal isn't going to shift that overnight (and the other big ocean trade party, the High Elves, are also unlikely to going to favour Barak var over it). And even with the canal it is not like Marienburg position/location loses that much of its attractiveness, the city is still perfectly located to dominate the trade of most of the Empire it is just that some of the eastern (which were somewhat disconnected from the network) and southern regions have an alternative route open to them. I doubt though that many traders of for example Altdorf are going to ship their goods via the channel instead of Marienburg even with the new fancy channel.
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I'm not sure I understand your position. You can't be considered a center of trade with the Empire if you aren't trading with the Empire, and that's what the blockade accomplishes. Five years of zero trade flowing from the Empire through Marienburg, until the canal begins and they start to switch tactics and try to compete. If you are the Empire and decide to smooth ruffled feathers and set a policy of reconciliation, sure, you can get the trade to flow at pre-war levels in a relatively quick timeframe. Marienburg has excellent natural advantages. But five years of 0 trade is enough time for new supply chains and links to form, and then there are political considerations in dealing with people who were waging an economic war on you a short time ago.
 
Is the vote tally borked for anybody else or is it just me? The last tally was an hour ago and whenever I press the button to get a new one either nothing happens or it gets stuck on "Processing Tally . . ."

Edit: Just posted bug report.
 
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chocolote12 said:
Marienburg can saber rattle all it wants; the danger is Ulthuan, with which it has a defensive treaty. If we start things with Marienburg, Ulthuan gets involved. If they start things with us, Ulthuan doesn't.
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ctulhuslp said:
This, yet again (thanks for illustrating my point about just up and assuming quick victory, very self-demonstrating of you) assumes that dwarfs win the war, do it very quickly and with relatively small losses in manpower and other resources for Empire.
Otherwise you just add 11th war to the list, one with the major trade power which may or may not (we have no idea, which is !!FUN!!) have defensive alliance with Ulthuan.
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Breaking the blockade is a risk. However, the people who favor the dwarves covering the lost trade need to acknowledge that that decision is a risk, as well, and it is debatable which risk is more likely to screw us.
 
MooseHowl said:
Counterpoint: The Chamberlain just finished emphasizing exactly how many wars the Empire is currently embroiled in.
Significantly weakening the Empire, as well as the Karaz Ankor, could turn all of those into stalemates or outright losses for the next five years. 10 failed wars, to avoid committing to 1. The only solution to which would still be to break Marienburg's blockade, after having already hamstrung the economy.
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Which they will have even more trouble with if they have a weapon shortage on their hands rather than if they let a naval battle with primarily dwarven ships happen.
 
Mopman43 said:
They've known from the start that Barak Varr is the main actor behind the canal. Are you telling me that they haven't considered the possibility?
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Previous understanding of the KA was that the individual Karaks were like individual provinces of the Empire only without any possibility of schisms or rebellion. In that view, putting pressure on the entire Empire to talk to the High King and get their underlings to knock things off would work - because it'd be going over the heads of the Karaks responsible for the canals.

Rafin said:
I don't know how Dwarven tarrifs work. Barak Varr is bound to know about free market economy and how to profit from it, but I also get the feeling that standardized and fixed prices at some fair (in the eyes of dwarves) point is a thing and that they are less flexible than human capitalists when it comes to either price gouging or dropping prices with the market.
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BoneyM said:
If those were not wonders enough, the markets of Barak Varr rival the harbour in grandeur and are greater even than those of Altdorf or Marienburg. You see barrels and mounds of spices that you've previously seen only in measures of pinches and pouches, entire bolts of precious silk stacked as haphazardly as if they were the most inferior wool, and under the careful watch of guards of a dozen nationalities or more, handfuls of precious stones glimmering brilliantly in the torchlight. Everywhere you look there are wonders, drawn in from every corner of the world, whether from long, gruelling oversea voyages that round entire continents, or from overland trips through territory held by greenskin and undead and other, even fouler threats. Hawkers not only sell their wares but actively recruit for the next voyage, and the crowds are made up as much of mercenaries looking for their fortunes as they are merchants looking to spend theirs. Dwarven moneychangers operate gadgets of intricate clockwork as they exchange one currency for another. Vast notice boards display the prices of goods in distant centers of trade, as well as how current the prices are; judging by how recent most of them are, they must have arrived by gyrocopter or some other, even more outlandish means.
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Barak Varr is familiar with the concept of changing prices and price differentials between different locations, and has put a fair bit of effort into accounting for that.

deathofrats0808 said:
You're making a couple assumptions here that could prove disastrously wrong. There's no guarantee the Dwarfs and Elves are matched in magical prowess. There's no guarantee you'll get Runesmiths willing to go on boats. There's no guarantee an Ironclad or Dreadnought is straight up better than a Dragonblade or Eagleship. There's no guarantee runed ships exist at all.
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It's not Asur Navy vs Dawi Navy, it's Marienburg Navy plus local elves along for the ride vs the Dawi Navy. Even low level support of elven mages such as what Ulthuan did for Marienburg before will probably not tip the balance between Ironclads/Dreadnoughts and Wolfships away from its foregone conclusion.

picklepikkl said:
They're Dwarf New York City. I agree that they'd be willing to fight. But what makes you think they'd be unwilling to win through force of coin rather than force of arms? Just because they're dwarves?
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The most likely reason is the relative availability of coin vs arms. Barak Varr shelled out a fair bit of money supporting K8P specifically because the increased trade to and from Cathay would pay off in the long run - but it's only been around 5 years since the original Expedition and 2 years since K8P was fully retaken and didn't need as much support.

There's a very real possibility that it hasn't been long enough for their coffers to have fully replenished themselves, which would make pulling the exact same sort of short term expense for long term profit deal less affordable.
 
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Yep, I should probably just look away from the thread for a while. The exact dynamics of this vote make it a lot more contentious than is usual, as the consequences are massive but obscured because they depend on predicting the actions of a wide variety of independent actors on a sliding scale of reasonability. The inherent dangers of brinkmanship collide with the realpolitiks consequences of allowing the guys who hold the keys to your economic well-being to dictate your ally's actions just by shouting about revoking them because that ally is making an additional key for you. Empire is caught in the middle, being punished for allowing it to happen at all, while the Dwarves are the ones bankrolling the project that will benefit both nations.

One note that I haven't been seeing is that we shouldn't forget that the Empire is willing to throw armies at this blockade even at risk of greater conflict, because fuck the idea of letting you economically cripple us for allowing the construction of a competing route, it just literally cannot do so in a way where they'd actually win the fight, so they have to run around trying to find something to appease the guys holding a gun to their heads. Gunboat Diplomacy just gives them the weight they need to make the move they'd prefer. Avoiding the conflict and just starving themselves for a few years while they rely on the generosity of the ally who is making this possible to begin with leaves a sour taste in my mouth, but it is a rejection of the power that Marienburg holds.

I'm feeling like Gunboat Diplomacy is starting to crystallize as my personal vote, but this is ugh enough that I'm hesitating.

(Side note, Heidi can go jump into a lake, ain't no way we are taking Dragomas' job, we just wanna fucking research and murder the unambiguous enemies of all Order races)
 
me.me.here said:
Previous understanding of the KA was that the individual Karaks were like individual provinces of the Empire only without any possibility of schisms or rebellion. In that view, putting pressure on the entire Empire to talk to the High King and get their underlings to knock things off would work - because it'd be going over the heads of the Karaks responsible for the canals.
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This is a very good point and does a lot to assuage my worries about "break the blockade" winning, which it is currently a heavy favorite to do, so thank you. "Why wouldn't Marienburg have taken Barak Varr into account and therefore be prepared for escalation" was a big thorny question I did not feel had been adequately answered up until now.
 
Sir Bidoof said:
Breaking the blockade is a risk. However, the people who favor the dwarves covering the lost trade need to acknowledge that that decision is a risk, as well, and it is debatable which risk is more likely to screw us.
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Both are risky, yes; and covering losses is more than just money, so you have a point.
Issue with blockade boils down to 2 things:
1. Marienburg is no slouch in naval warfare. They had lots of practice and Barak Varr will have to go pretty much balls deep to defeat Marienburg in their own home waters. Dwarfs still are somewhat more likely to win, I think, but it will cost, time and blood. And time dwarf fleet is not at home is time local Orc and Skaven fleets will be free to do whatever they want, which, whatever that may be, is worse than Marienburg throwing a fit.
2. Wildcard: Ulthuan. If they do, in fact, have defensive alliance, bet's on Ulthuan. They...rule the waves, that's it; they are fantasy British Empire to dwarf Venice, their only peer power is Nagarroth on the seas. It will cost them, so they won't invest their full fleet (being infinitely busy projecting power across entire globe because that's High Elves for you), but they'll be an absolute nightmare. Of course, maybe they won't intervene, who even knows?

I don't think risk is worth that much; point 1 alone sort of is enough to offset at least part of the costs of "dwarfs will cover it", because dwarf fleet being tied up in Marienburg is likely to not be free, in form of heightened activity of their enemies on the sea.
(2) is just an icing on the cake, in form of "oh yes and this long ass commitment of forces away from trade and home protection may or may not also provoke local high British Empire expy into protecting their client state, good luck".
 
ctulhuslp said:
1. Marienburg is no slouch in naval warfare. They had lots of practice and Barak Varr will have to go pretty much balls deep to defeat Marienburg in their own home waters. Dwarfs still are somewhat more likely to win, I think, but it will cost, time and blood. And time dwarf fleet is not at home is time local Orc and Skaven fleets will be free to do whatever they want, which, whatever that may be, is worse than Marienburg throwing a fit.
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Marienburg can't sink Dreadnoughts without magic, period. All their practice against wooden ships does not apply, and if they think it does then they are dangerously wrong.

And even with magic, they'll be hardpressed for the simple reason that Dwarves do build ships to defend against magical attacks.
 
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[X] No, but they could help break the blockade

Marienburg isn't going to sit down and take things unless we give in, and it's harder to bribe or shiv an ironclad than it is to target overland supply lines, political support bases, and corruptible merchants and nobles.

The trade option relies on neither the threats the Empire is facing nor Marienburg's intrigue apparatus driving the ECs to capitulate within the 5-10 years the canal will take to finish. Given how thinly pressed the Empire is, and how little Dwarfpower the Karaz Ankor will be able to contribute, I am far from confident in such an assumption.

The blockade option either requires Marienburg to not go "do it, you won't" to the threat of dreadnaughts, or for them to do so, get bopped, and then for the Dwarves to obey orders not to start a land war and for the Elves not to kick things off as a polity themselves. There is also risk here, but the Ulthuani ambassador's vagueness does not speak of enthusiasm for war to me and Marienburg is probably fairly reluctant to have all of their naval infrastructure destroyed, and I'm willing to bet that we won't face the multiple critfails I imagine it'll take to drive things to open war when the alternative is guaranteed to bleed us of material, power, and lives.
 
ChronOblivion said:
(Side note, Heidi can go jump into a lake, ain't no way we are taking Dragomas' job, we just wanna fucking research and murder the unambiguous enemies of all Order races)
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I really liked that bit. It simultaneously showed how an otherwise fairly knowledgeable person just had no idea how impressive wizards relatively are from the outside, and let us see Mathilde's view of things, i.e. "I'm flattered, but hell no."
 
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ctulhuslp said:
Both are risky, yes; and covering losses is more than just money, so you have a point.
Issue with blockade boils down to 2 things:
1. Marienburg is no slouch in naval warfare. They had lots of practice and Barak Varr will have to go pretty much balls deep to defeat Marienburg in their own home waters. Dwarfs still are somewhat more likely to win, I think, but it will cost, time and blood. And time dwarf fleet is not at home is time local Orc and Skaven fleets will be free to do whatever they want, which, whatever that may be, is worse than Marienburg throwing a fit.
2. Wildcard: Ulthuan. If they do, in fact, have defensive alliance, bet's on Ulthuan. They...rule the waves, that's it; they are fantasy British Empire to dwarf Venice, their only peer power is Nagarroth on the seas. It will cost them, so they won't invest their full fleet (being infinitely busy projecting power across entire globe because that's High Elves for you), but they'll be an absolute nightmare. Of course, maybe they won't intervene, who even knows?

I don't think risk is worth that much; point 1 alone sort of is enough to offset at least part of the costs of "dwarfs will cover it", because dwarf fleet being tied up in Marienburg is likely to not be free, in form of heightened activity of their enemies on the sea.
(2) is just an icing on the cake, in form of "oh yes and this long ass commitment of forces away from trade and home protection may or may not also provoke local high British Empire expy into protecting their client state, good luck".
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Problem is, if the Empire gets a weapon shortage and chaos or greenskin smell that, then bye bye empire. Bye bye empire is a huge trouble for the Dawi. So the other scenario can also escalate beyond reason, and is actually a lot easier for the forces of chaos to exploit than tying down a small fleet is.
 
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