Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
I really liked that bit. It simultaneously showed how an otherwise fairly knowledgeable person just had no idea how impressive wizards are from the outside, and let us see Mathilde's view of things, i.e. "I'm flattered, but hell no."

I'm still of the opinion that if we buckled down on it we could totally take him for a ride on the pain train in another decade.
 
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On the subject of a second War Of The Beard

People seem to be under the impression that the War of the Beard/War of Vengeance was fought between Ulthuan and the Karaz Ankor. While this is true in the legal sense it is false in the military sense. Pre-Sundering the Asur had a vast empire. Most of the Old World is covered by 'elven ruins' that were once Asur cities. It was these colonies that bore the brunt of Dwarf vengeance while the elves on Ulthuan were stabbing each other over whether Malekith was an arsehole or a Royal Arsehole.

While the War of Vengence officially ended when the Dwarfs kicked the last loyal elf colonies off the continent the fighting didn't actually stop. While Ulthuan and the Karaz Ankor are not at war various groups of elves have been fighting various groups of Dwarfs on and off ever since.

A conflict in Marienburg cannot trigger a second major war. Even ignoring that minor conflicts happen all the time and that neither side wants it, they simply aren't capable of it.
The Dwarfs do not have the naval capacity to transport their armies to Ulthuan, any more than they could assault Skavenblight. The Asur on the other hand cannot gather spare enough forces from their many other commitments to threaten a major Hold. Both sides are massivly stronger on the defensive and they both know this.

The worse case scenario is a rise in tension and thus a delay in reconciliation. Which while bad isn't remotely the cataclysm people seem to fear.
 
Marienburg can't sink Dreadnoughts without magic, period. All their practice against wooden ships does not apply, and if they think it does then they are dangerously wrong.

Far as I know, WHFB has tabletop profiles for ships, and the fleets are roughly balanced, albeit with their strengths and weaknesses.
Dreadnoughts have bigass wheels as a target to boot.

Generally, it's a bit hard to judge because paddle steamers were outdated the moment screws appeared, but ironclad with wheel should be quite vulnerable to old-fashioned artillery fire.


A conflict in Marienburg cannot trigger a second major war. Even ignoring that minor conflicts happen all the time and that neither side wants it, they simply aren't capable of it.
If only nations were always capable of deescalating away from wars which they cannot afford.
 
I love how many people are doing 'I cant look at this thread at the moment' or 'I need a break, this is to contentious' or just 'I hate politics.'

while I'm just here going: 🍿 🍿 🍿 🍿 :drevil:

this is the shit I joined the thread for, I live off of it, old school Divided Loyalties politics are back bitchs.
 
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I don't want Mathilde to give advise based on wistful thinking. So, hypothetically, why would Mathilde believe that the King of Barak Varr would choose compensation over blockade breaking? We are looking at this from the wrong way I feel - this is less of what Mathilde advises what ought to be done, but more what Mathilde thinks is more likely to happen if the Dawi parties involved are presented a set of policy options. Maybe an Umgi might agree to making up a loss in trade, but why should Mathilde believe a Dawi would, as opposed to simply breaking the blockade? I feel the arguments so far presume Mathilde is the one choosing the policy options - rather than engaging with what is Mathilde more likely to believe would happen when the Dawi are presented with a set of policy options, so that the Imperial Chamberlain can better formulate his strategy with information on hand.

We need to divorce what Mathilde wish could be done in an ideal world without internal Dawi politics to consider, versus what Mathilde believes Dawi internal politics and psychology would permit for. The case for compensation should be made on the grounds that on the balance of probability, the Dawi are more likely to go for it rather than blockade breaking based on Mathilde's understanding of Dawi internal politics and cultural/psychological sensibilities.
 
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I'd prefer if the Dwarfs just covered the cost in trade, but I don't think that would be their response and so it might not be accurate advice to give.
Far as I know, WHFB has tabletop profiles for ships, and the fleets are roughly balanced, albeit with their strengths and weaknesses.
Dreadnoughts have bigass wheels as a target to boot.

Generally, it's a bit hard to judge because paddle steamers were outdated the moment screws appeared, but ironclad with wheel should be quite vulnerable to old-fashioned artillery fire.
I'd hesitate to use tabletop stats for things in either direction, simply because they are meant to present a balanced experience where any faction can win, while in lore that isn't necessarily true.
 
I love how many people are doing 'I cant look at this thread at the moment' or 'I need a break, this is to contentious' or just 'I hate politics.'

while I'm just here going: 🍿 🍿 🍿 🍿 :drevil:

this is the shit I joined the thread for, I live off of it, old school Divided Loyalties politics are back bitchs.

[B I G picture]
I agree - I've also found this vote very enjoyable, with all of the nuances and long-term political and economic ramifications, the clear, legitimate cases to be made for each side, the potential for selfish benefits that are only kinda at the expense of our allies, the genuinely irreconcilable philosophies involved in choices that are nonetheless not wrong... Major props to @BoneyM on this.

...But could you maybe toss a spoiler on that picture? It's a bit... excessively sizable.
 
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We are looking at this from the wrong way I feel - this is less of what Mathilde advices, but more what Mathilde thinks is more likely to happen if the Dawi parties involved are presented a set of policy options. Maybe an Umgi might agree to making up a loss in trade, but why should Mathilde believe a Dawi would, as opposed to simply breaking the blockade? I feel the arguments so far presume Mathilde is the one choosing the policy options - rather than engaging with what is Mathilde more likely to believe would happen when the Dawi are presented with a set of policy options.
For your consideration:
@BoneyM, there still seems to be some confusion about what the vote is actually about.

Is Mathilde just trying to give a prediction about what the dwarfs are most likely to do, or is she advising the Chamberlain on what course of action he could take to resolve the situation?
The latter under the guise of the former.
We are giving the Chamberlain advice, under the guise of telling him what the dwarves are likely to do.
 
I agree - I've also have also found this vote very enjoyable, with all of the nuances and long-term political and economic ramifications, the clear, legitimate cases to be made for each side, the potential for selfish benefits that are only kinda at the expense of our allies, the genuinely irreconcilable philosophies involved in choices that are nonetheless not wrong... Major props to @BoneyM on this.

...But could you maybe toss a spoiler on that picture? It's a bit... excessively sizable.
The retaking of k8ps arc was a nice break from politics and intrigue, but to many new players came in forgetting what this quest is about.

they shall learn, oh they will learn hahahahahaha!
 
Can anyone remind me what the benefits are to the Empire of the k8p now being an open trade route?

I'm pretty sure its all good things, but I cant visualize how good it is exactly in regards to trade and goods.
 
Why is most people is so anti Marienburg? Is it pro Empire bias?
I find it quite off-putting.
Marienburg is the worst parts of rent seeking exploitative capitalism. They're an oligarchy run by rich merchant families that puppets a sham democracy and maintains the absurd wealth of their capitalists via exploitative, monopolistic practices that weakens and hurts everyone else.
 
We are giving the Chamberlain advice, under the guise of telling him what the dwarves are likely to do.

Right, but Mathilde has to believe the Dawi are likely to do this. And I haven't seen people actually arguing that the Dawis are likely to go for it , if presented with the choice of blockade breaking or compensating the Empire. I've seen people asserting that the compensation scheme is politically possible, and I've seen people arguing the Blockade is likely to happen, but no-one has actually weighed the two and asked why one would be preferred over the other by the Dawi. And yes, maybe we fear escalation, but will the Dawis make the same calculus of escalation risks?

Now, if Mathilde believes Barak Varr will not go for a blockade because Barak Varr itself will take into account Ulthuan's potential response, then the considerations of escalation makes sense. If Mathilde on the other hand believes Barak Varr is likely to escalate to Blockade Breaking, then advising the Chamberlain that the Dawis are open to compensation is advice not based on whether Mathilde thinks it's realistically possible, but what Mathilde hopes can happen.
 
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[X] They can make up for the loss in trade

An easy choice for me.

People should remember that the canals aren't an Empire instigated project, but a dwarven one so the morality of helping the Empire out for a brief period due to something Dwarves iniated fits into their way of life. Realistically the benefits/loss of this project, even accounting for this interference, are still astounding particularly for Barak Varr.

There's also the matter of information that Mathilde is privy to that those in this meeting aren't, and that's K8P is sitting on effectively infinite liquidity with nothing much to do with it. King Belegar also notably owes a great deal of favours to Empire citizens and institutions. It is astoundingly simple to see how you can square this circle and have Belegar and K8Ps come out ahead, the Karaz Ankor come out ahead, as well as the Empire; all without potentially starting a war.

It should also be noted that even should Msrienburg close trade, given the nature of how sparsely populated the Empire is in general with frequent internal opposition local self sufficiency is kind of needed to survive. So realistically, and considering historical trade, it should mainly be luxury goods that are affected. Plus just if they do close off trade, doing so as a threat and doing so for five years are very different stories once your bluff has been called and long term trade supply chains start moving, as well as relationships being damaged.
 
Is anyone else having trouble with the tally? I can't seem to get it to work.
Why is most people is so anti Marienburg? Is it pro Empire bias?
I find it quite off-putting.
Canonically, they are portrayed as being really quite unpleasant, I believe? The classic "incredibly rich and yet pursuing more wealth at the cost of being massive jerks" faction. IC of course we're just loyal to the Empire, who don't like Marienburg for, well, exactly the sort of thing shown here.
 
Can anyone remind me what the benefits are to the Empire of the k8p now being an open trade route?

I'm pretty sure its all good things, but I cant visualize how good it is exactly in regards to trade and goods.
If you go into the Collection of Important Information threadmark and look at the Silk Road trade map, you'll notice a big green bit stretching from Barak Varr most of the way through Death Pass. That's because of us and the Undumgi. Previously, Death Pass was a lot scarier, as you might expect from the name.
Right, but Mathilde has to believe the Dawi are likely to do this. And I haven't seen people actually arguing that the Dawis are likely to go for it , if presented with the choice of blockade breaking or compensating the Empire.

Now, if Mathilde believes Barak Varr will not go for a blockade because Barak Varr itself will take into account Ulthuan's potential response, then the considerations of escalation makes sense. If Mathilde on the other hand believes Barak Varr is likely to escalate to Blockade Breaking, then advising the Chamberlain that the Dawis are open to compensation is advised not based on whether Mathilde thinks it's realistically possible, but what Mathilde hopes can happen.
My opinion, as *checks tally* one-133rd of Mathilde's mind, is that Barak Varr would go for either of these options if the Empire came to them with the problem and the proposed solution. I have posted extensively about why winning this via economic warfare would be totally fine by Barak Varr. Therefore, which I vote for is a question of which I'm recommending, since I think both are realistic possibilities.
 
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Why is most people is so anti Marienburg? Is it pro Empire bias?
I find it quite off-putting.
anyone that's read the rpg supplements have a hard time... thinking positively... about the city. (it really isn't good for anyone but themselves and maybe the elfs but even the elfs are not sure they got a good deal in hindsight having to deal with the 10.)

its infected the rest of the thread.
 
Can anyone remind me what the benefits are to the Empire of the k8p now being an open trade route?

I'm pretty sure its all good things, but I cant visualize how good it is exactly in regards to trade and goods.
K8P (Undumgi) are buying a lot of Imperial goods and luxuries, exclusively sourced and shipped by the EIC and sold in EIC company stores.
Wilhelmina and ourselves will get even more wealthy as more trade opens up, and we are imperial citizens?
'Imperial' is right in the company name, it must benefit the Empire. ;)

And the Black Water-Aver canal only came about because we had the clout to set up the meeting for Wilhelmina to propose it.
(But also what Pickle said about safer trade routes east, on the principle that safer trade routes and flow enriches everyone.)
 
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