For the sake of of idly wasting time, here's an analysis-speculation-thingy about what my gut feelings say regarding potential The Gambler usage on various actions for the currently winning plan. To be clear, this is largely unserious and more of a thought exercise than anything else. I could easily be wrong on many or most of these.
[] Plan Bring Running Shoes with Seviroscope
-[] JOHANN: Hunt an apparition (Rider in Red)
--[] The Gambler
Risk Mitigation:
Low. Apparitions mainly hunt apprentice mages. Mathilde is not an apprentice. She's a fully-equipped Lord Magister and Master Swordswoman. I'm confident she can both find and outfight a Rider in Red, and that's before taking punch-buddy Johann along for backup.
Success Enhancement:
Medium. Why stop at finding and capturing only one? It should be possible to capture multiple Riders, and the Coin seems ideal for increasing the chances of that. However, past that, it's hard to see much else a crit success could give here.
-[] EGRIMM: Attempt a Windherder enchantment with Egrimm (Seviroscope)
Risk Mitigation:
High. Magical experimentation is
always dangerous, and we've used the Coin's +20 (and the earlier +10 from Ranald's Blessing) to blunt or prevent bad rolls from causing a disaster multiple times.
Success Enhancement:
Medium. We've sometimes used the Coin's +20 to succeed at spell learning and magical experimentation where we otherwise would have failed. But combing through
DragonParadox's analysis post, it's hard to say that this
enhanced the outcome so much as prevented a failure. (Though perhaps not needing to spend an AP redoing an action is its own reward.)
-[] MAX: Study an artefact (Books and rubbings from an Asur explorer of Lustria and the Southlands)
Risk Mitigation+Success Enhancement:
Low. These are books and rubbings. Unless there's a hidden code or invisible ink here, there's little at risk here, and not much extraordinary (beyond what's already written down) to gain either.
-[] Attempt to create a liminal realm
Risk Mitigation:
High? Unfortunately, the dangers of this action are a bit of an unknown unknown.
Last time, it was only rolling a natural 1 that caused the disaster of a demon showing up and whispering in
the thread's Mathilde's ear. If we roll another natural 1, Ranald's personal intervention would be the ideal way to defend Mathilde from Chaos. Warhammer deities are the best direct counter to Chaos, after all, and we've seen that Ranald has the ability and gumption to throw down against evil gods and Chaos directly before.
But... is that small 1/100 chance really worth worrying about? Here's where we run into our lack of information: Will there be subsequent rolls for this action? How dangerous is this past the initial creation of the Liminal Realm? Does Mathilde have Chaos's direct attention and/or how much does this action attract their direct intervention? While I think it's unlikely, it could be that this action is 99/100 times perfectly safe. We just don't know.
Success Enhancement:
Medium. This is once again magical experimentation, and a choice +20 somewhere could give us a success at experimenting and/or learning something we otherwise wouldn't.
-[] Waystone: Foundation (Thorek, Hatalath, Sarvoi, Egrimm, Elrisse, Niedzwenka, Zlata)
Risk Mitigation:
Low. Our Waystone actions so far can be arbitrarily divided into two parts. For the first half, our researchers compare notes and figure out what everyone knows or can figure out through examination. There's not much randomness here, and we already did the prep work of recruiting a wide and varied set of magical experts.
Success Enhancement:
High. The other half is figuring out what to do with that all that collated information. This is where attempts at constructing and/or testing prototypes happens, and we even saw an un-hidden +20 for successfully casting the 4th and final version of the Liminal Germination tributary ritual. Thus, there are multiple avenues for an exceptional result due to good rolls.
-[] Tributary: International (Kislev) (Zlata, Niedzwenka, Aksel, Tochter, Cadaeth)
Risk Mitigation:
High. Now this isn't a dangerous action. But it is a risky one, since Kislev's leader doesn't care much for magic (among other things) and has a mercurial mood besides. A bit of good luck could see us approach him on a good day and get the rubber stamp approval needed for official support and resources.
Success Enhancement:
Medium. As we saw in Stirland last turn, who ends up being hired to build tributaries is up in the air. The Coin could tip the balance and get people who'll be faster and/or more through with making tributaries. But it doesn't seem like there's much room for spectacular results here.
-[] EIC: Negotiate and plan a magical route through the Schadensumpf to allow for easier trade with the Eonir without compromising their defenses
Risk Mitigation:
Low. Either the Eonir are open to this idea, or they aren't. I don't see luck ultimately making or breaking success here.
Success Enhancement:
High. We've seen from similar negotiation actions that the Coin can give us favorable circumstances and, seemingly, better outcomes from those negotiations. It's hard to judge how impactful this has been in the past, (did Parnoth turning up personally mean he gave us a better deal, or was the benefit for Panoramia?) but it seems likely we could end up with some kind of better outcome here than we'd otherwise get.
-[] KAU: Begin copying the full corpus of a Partner Library (Grand University of Nuln)
Risk Mitigation:
None. I don't think there's anything mechanically that could go wrong here. Maybe last turn we wouldn't have ticked off the Cult of Verena, but it's too late for that now.
Success Enhancement:
Low. Does the Grand University have some hidden chambers? Otherwise, the most the Coin is likely to turn up here might be a few Romance novels.
-[] SERENITY: Observations on the Windfall north of the Dark Lands (Egrimm as primary author)
Risk Mitigation:
None. As we saw just this turn, sitting down at a desk and writing something is so not-random that there's hardly anything for Ranald to do.
Success Enhancement:
Medium. Egrimm might get more Favor from this. The paper might also have some narrative effect. Maybe this data will be exactly what some Celesitial magister needs for an important project or similar.
-[] Eike Actions: Lustrian books and rubbings study, Windfall paper, Windherder enchanting, EIC negotiation
N/A: I don't think we could put the Coin here specifically, as this is multiple actions.
-[] Eike Study: Enchanting class at the Grey College (1 CF)
Risk Mitigation:
Medium. If we really wanted to be sure Eike successfully learned something from a college class, this would be a good way to stack the deck for her. Though it wouldn't be as effective as having Mathilde teach her directly.
Success Enhancement:
High. As an Apprentice, it's much easier for Eike to learn things and aquire new skills and traits than it is for Mathilde. And new skills and traits can be very beneficial in the long term.
In conclusion, from this
objectively correct data we can see that optimal Coin usage is to help Eike learn enchanting. I expect everyone to adjust their votes immediately.