Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
That's not how Mindhole works.
Ah, whoops. I thought I remembered it being time-limited but looking back that appears to have been from a discussion surrounding specifically a Mindhole enchantment which would affect only the period during which the enchanted item was worn. My bad.

In that case, yeah, just someone Mathilde didn't know at the time of the recording is probably the safe bet.
 
Ignoring the demon is a "valid" strategy as in we can "try it and find out", but I would very much not "find out" what would happen in such a circumstance.

You seem to be under the assumption that if we do "nothing", then "nothing" will happen to us at all, which I think is a very dangerous assumption to make.

If we do nothing, nothing will have changed compared to if the daemon never spoke to us at all.

Yes, bad things can happen if we do nothing, but they're the same bad things that could have happened if the daemon had chosen not to speak in the first place and do those bad things instead.

We are 'trying and finding out' the consequences of sharing the information the daemon gave us, and I'm very much more not looking forward to that, and I expect the daemon is. It probably can't believe its luck that we're doing so.

The way it looks to me is that it tempted Mathilde by making her believe that it was telling her something so useful because she was so special that she needed to reveal it despite the collateral damage to potentially more important work and she fell for it.
 
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Ignoring the demon is a "valid" strategy as in we can "try it and find out", but I would very much not "find out" what would happen in such a circumstance.

You seem to be under the assumption that if we do "nothing", then "nothing" will happen to us at all, which I think is a very dangerous assumption to make.

I mean things will happen to us, that is kind of a given, this is a quest, but that is not really and argument for or against any course of action IMO. The idea is that we are dealing with a non- temporal hyper-inteligent insane spirit who has exploited a flaw in our protections against the realm in which it dwells to transmit some words. We can either:
  • Use those words, in the hopes that we can somehow extract a better situation that the default out of them
  • Not use them and do our likely to still be imperfect best in mitigating its influence
 
If we do nothing, nothing will have changed compared to if the daemon never spoke to us at all.

Yes, bad things can happen if we do nothing, but they're the same bad things that could have happened if the daemon had chosen not to speak in the first place and do those bad things instead.

We are 'trying and finding out' the consequences of sharing the information the daemon gave us, and I'm very much more not looking forward to that, and I expect the daemon is. It probably can't believe its luck that we're doing so.

It is a daemon of Tzeench, it can absolutely believe its luck no matter how bad this goes for us. If Mathilde had killed herself on the spot the daemon would have believed it as nothing more than the normal expression of its brilliance
 
It is a daemon of Tzeench, it can absolutely believe its luck no matter how bad this goes for us. If Mathilde had killed herself on the spot the daemon would have believed it as nothing more than the normal expression of its brilliance

The problem with a known precognitive enemy is that they really can set up things so you believe you're close to a Hobson's choice scenario, where you're just picking between bad options.

Worse, they can do this even when it's not one, by essentially bluffing.

When a daemon can see a range of possible futures leading from its intervention, it can tailor its words to make the set of outcomes it wants more likely, even if many of th use different desirable outcomes are mutually exclusive.

The daemon would probably have been overjoyed if Mathilde had killed herself, but would also have been overjoyed if she's tempted to become Everchosen, or if she reveals herself and she and her works are discredited and she's isolated and disillusioned in the Empire and the dwarves.

It probably wouldn't be overjoyed if she shrugged, rolled her eyes and completely disregarded the daemon as irrelevant babbling and just got on with her life as if it didn't matter. It presumably invested some effort to talk to her, which probably wasn't without some cost, and acting as if it never happened means that Investment produced no results.

The daemon has literally gained only as much power over us or anyone else from this as we give it. If we do nothing, we give it no more power, if we do a lot, we give it a lot of power.
 
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The problem with the whole "the demon loses if we ignore it" argument is that this isn't a vote to determine whether or not we acknowledge it in any way, it's a vote about whether we inform others.

Our choices are:
-Keep it a secret and tell no one
-approach one or two trusted authority figures and inform them this happened.

At no point are we voting to ignore it's words and actions, and claiming that the "keep it a secret" vote is also the "ignore it" vote is just false reasoning.

In fact, in the last update Mathilde laid out her response to it, which was, and I quote, "nuts to that".
 
Either Tzeentch's daemons can be defeated and therefore their precognitive abilities are limited and we should not assume every possible action we can take is predetermined to fail or somehow furthers the daemons plot.
Or they can't be defeated and there's no point worrying about it.
 
Even the "do nothing" can potentially be a planned for winning scenario for a Daemon, if for example the information was information it had reason to believe Mathilde would come across anyway. I'm not saying it is in this case, just that "deliberately turn information into Fruit of the Poison Tree" is in fact extremely easy to think of.
 
Either Tzeentch's daemons can be defeated and therefore their precognitive abilities are limited and we should not assume every possible action we can take is predetermined to fail or somehow furthers the daemons plot.
Or they can't be defeated and there's no point worrying about it.

See this is what I think is the false dichotomy at the heart of the argument, it does not mean you should never do anything to mitigate a demon's influence. Just because its precognitive are limited does not mean they are nonexistent. To give another example the number of Chaos Cultists at any given time is also limited, it does not mean we should not try to kill them when we come across them
 
Even the "do nothing" can potentially be a planned for winning scenario for a Daemon, if for example the information was information it had reason to believe Mathilde would come across anyway. I'm not saying it is in this case, just that "deliberately turn information into Fruit of the Poison Tree" is in fact extremely easy to think of.
I have also previously suggested a scenario where a "do nothing" just leads to further contacts with the daemon, and every "do nothing" just makes it harder to do something without looking very sus for not having done something previously.

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See this is what I think is the false dichotomy at the heart of the argument, it does not mean you should never do anything to mitigate a demon's influence. Just because its precognitive are limited does not mean they are nonexistent. To give another example the number of Chaos Cultists at any given time is also limited, it does not mean we should not try to kill them when we come across them
I have no idea how this relates to me post or what false dichotomy you are reading?
I am not suggesting we should not do anything. Or that the daemon can't do some predictions about our actions (though it would be fairly hard considering we can't predict our actions and those actions are somewhat dice based).
What i am pointing out is that doom saying is pointless, and that just going "but they can see the future" is a shit argument against specific courses of action.
 
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The thing is, it's an awful lot harder for do nothing to help the daemon that do something.

There are no certainties. It's theoretically possible that the daemon wants Mathilde to ignore it and move on. It's just much harder to see how that possibly advances the daemon's agenda. It also takes the daemon succeeding at investing significant additional effort to do so, while if talking is what it wants it requires the daemon doing nothing but sitting back and laughing.

They can see the future is a strong argument against courses of action that involve more action, as it gives them more points against which to leverage their precognition of possible futures. Basically, the more Mathilde acts as a result of its words the more changes to the world its words have caused, and so there are more chances for some of those changes to be the ones it wanted.

As no evidence exists of this contact; nothing about this encounter can make her future actions more suspicious. If Mathilde doesn't mention it, as far as anyone else is concerned it never happened.

And no one is arguing that precog means that the daemon auto-wins. If so it wouldn't be worth contesting the vote. Precog means that certain kinds of action are more dangerous than they otherwise would be. For example, it's very hard to pull for want of a nail style shenanigans if Mathilde does nothing.
 
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I have no idea how this relates to me post or what false dichotomy you are reading?
I am not suggesting we should not do anything. Or that the daemon can't do some predictions about our actions (though it would be fairly hard considering we can't predict our actions and those actions are somewhat dice based).
What i am pointing out is that doom saying is pointless, and that just going "but they can see the future" is a shit argument against specific courses of action.

Er... as a GM myself I have to say that the mechanical argument about dice is not relevant. What the demon can do IC is behind the curtain ex post facto 'he knew you were going to do that so here is what he has planned'. That is the only way you can have precognition in a quest to begin with since us mere mortals do not actually see the future.

That being the case we should keep in mind it has some precognitive capacity and consider how to mitigate its capacity to do so. The side of the argument I am on has been accused of 'burying our heads in the sand', but I feel that just ignoring that the daemon can see the future is much the same issue. It can in fact see the future and we can impact how far it can leverage that, both those things can be true at the same time.
 
As no evidence exists of this contact; nothing about this encounter can make her future actions more suspicious. If Mathilde doesn't mention it, as far as anyone else is concerned it never happened.
If she does not mention it, every time in the future when something similar comes up, or a question like it (IE: have you ever hidden something that I should know re: College and Belegar) Mat will have to lie about it. That's the first part.

The second is that the enemy gets a turn too. So if a bunch of cultists start singing to the stars that Lady Magister Weber has been talking to demon lords, people might not take that accusation as truth, but there are plenty of paranoid people who'll check "just in case". And Mat will have to lie to all of them too and pass those dice rolls to deceive. Lying to Starke and Algard, likely. For now, Mat's been getting away with shit because no one is asking and they trust her. They've been asking entirely different questions and taking her as a Ranaldite, for her mistakes. Not Chaos. That changes, so do the questions. And once forbidden lore questions are asked, Mat gets to play "let's lie to the best Witch Hunters and Grey Wizards in the Empire" game, as for investigating a Lady Magister, they will send their best.

So Mat has a choice between admitting contact now, on her own terms, or the accusation coming from an unreliable source at the time her enemies find most convenient. The first means that Mat can't lie about the contact anymore, and that looks suspicious. Her game then switches to "yes we talked, but seriously, Chaos? Not even once."

Which isn't even a lie. It's a technical truth that hides all the hidden necromancy lore she has under her hat by pointing to her obvious Randald piety. Re: see pronouncement from the fucking High King on a Grudge against Ranald.

Or we let the demons choose their chosen ground and deny, deny, deny. That one means it is much harder to catch us in our first lie, but once they do, all the other ones are likely to come falling out as well.

That's why it's a devils choice and lose-lose. You can either tarnish Mat's perfect image (a little, with obvious Piety shield ready and willing to back us up vs Chaos), or put another secret under the same umbrella hiding the Liber Mortis. Where a demon already knows this secret and will tell others about it, who are our enemies.

To me, the choice is obvious. No one in the Empire will accept Mat with the Liber Mortis. That book is just too much bad juju reputation wise. So I'll rather risk looking a bit more iffy with Ranald at our backs to counter the "you met a demon" thing, then let the demon choose when its servants can attack our credibility and endanger all our secrets.

It's better to take the hit now and lean on our Piety to weather the suspicion, then allow Tzeenchina demons to choose when they want to inflict that same suspicion on us, anyway. Sure, without Mat's word the weight and push behind that suspicion will be lesser. But it's nature will be different too. It's one thing to investigate a Lady Magister that came forward and said "I met with a demon through miscast". You're looking for signs of supernatural corruption there. It's quite another thing to investigate a Lady Magister you suspect to be a hidden Black Magister, who betrayed the laws by choice.
 
I'm very doubtful the daemon can predict Mathilde very well at all.

In terms of magic, Mathilde wears a serious antimagic (and particularly anti-chaos) artifact around...pretty much all the time. I doubt that stops prophecies from including her entirely, but it can't help with their accuracy. I'd also be very surprised if Ranald wasn't generally making her hard to predict by concealing her from prophecy and other detection magics of similar scope. Unlike straight up fighting other Gods, making her hard to notice, find, or pin down is exactly his idiom and I'm pretty sure he's looking out for her on that score as well as he can, particularly since it makes her a better tool to serve his various schemes. And she's also a Grey Wizard which can't help either given how Ulgu works conceptually. Which is all imperfect, of course, but I'm pretty sure predicting her with Chaos-magic is way harder than predicting almost any other Grey Wizard other than maybe Melkoth (whose time-fuckery might provide some similar benefits).

As for mundane prediction with its massive planning brain, I highly doubt that it's able to do that very well because it had the perfect opportunity to bring up the Liber Mortis in a way that would aid its cause significantly, and it didn't...which seemingly means it doesn't know about that. And if it doesn't know about that, it doesn't know Mathilde's secrets, it's just operating based on publicly available info, which I don't think is very predictive.

Technically it could know about the Liber Mortis and just have failed to mention it...but I struggle to think of any coherent reason for that. Tzeentch might well know and not be telling for less than coherent reasons (Tzeentch's plans are not always coherent, taken as a whole), but an individual Greater Daemon is usually more rational than that.

Now, none of that means that this is harmless or that a Greater Daemon of Tzeentch can't predict Mathiilde at all or anything like that (it's probably the enemy she's dealt with that can best predict her, that's just not saying a lot), but does, I think, mean that assuming it's predicting her perfectly and whatever she does will 'all be part of the plan' is a dangerous overestimation of its abilities in that regard and likely to lead to an unwarranted degree of catastrophizing and paranoia.
 
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It's probably worth noting that in spite of magical powers, precognition, plotting capability et al, Tzeentch doesn't actually rule over the Chaos Gods, or reality in general.
 
It's probably worth noting that in spite of magical powers, precognition, plotting capability et al, Tzeentch doesn't actually rule over the Chaos Gods, or reality in general.
If we go by how it's normally portraited then that's because Tzeentch also plots against himself. He makes plans over plans over plans and has no "main" plan. So every plan gets as much attention as any other and they contradict and even openly work against each other. Iirc it's accepted that Tzeentch is the most powerful of the 4 but also the one most self-sabotaging.
 
Good to see people have circled back around to, "Let's go become a vampire to protect our soul from Chaos!!!" Once again. Aaaand we've also got another argument about whether a tzeentch demon can get any benefit out of mathilde ignoring its existence. Fun. That argument does rather ignore whether it's *possible* for Mathilde to be unaffected by this. Sure, we the players might be able to shrug and move on, (though the panic in the thread points to otherwise), but can Mathilde? Sure, we vote for the big decisions, but what she actually does in those is always shaded by her character. As Codex pointed out, this is a rather traumatic experience, having a terrifying entity violate one of the places she feels safest. Maybe the next time she does an experiment she's going to be slightly more hesitant and pile on more precautions and her delaying 5 minutes to do so will mean she misses some event she could have intervened in 6 months down the road and that was Tzeentch's plan along. I don't know, but precognitive evil demons might. *shrugs*
 
Er... as a GM myself I have to say that the mechanical argument about dice is not relevant. What the demon can do IC is behind the curtain ex post facto 'he knew you were going to do that so here is what he has planned'. That is the only way you can have precognition in a quest to begin with since us mere mortals do not actually see the future.

That being the case we should keep in mind it has some precognitive capacity and consider how to mitigate its capacity to do so. The side of the argument I am on has been accused of 'burying our heads in the sand', but I feel that just ignoring that the daemon can see the future is much the same issue. It can in fact see the future and we can impact how far it can leverage that, both those things can be true at the same time.
Daemon has some precognitive ability.
Cool, so what? Just knowing it has some precognitive ability tells us nothing about how to actually take steps to mitigate it.
We don't know the type of precognition it has, we don't know the accuracy, the length it can see into the future, what type of information it can have, how wide an area it can see in...
If we actually knew how its precognitive ability worked, we could work around it.
But we don't, so we can't make any informed decisions about it, and any actions we take can be anywhere from extremely useful, ot actively harmful.
 
In terms of magic, Mathilde wears a serious antimagic (and particularly anti-chaos) artifact around...pretty much all the time. I doubt that stops prophecies from including her entirely, but it can't help with their accuracy.
The belt protects against spells targeted at Mathilde specifically. In the Celestial spell books, none of the divination spells are described as directly targeting someone. I don't think the belt changes anything where divination is concerned.
 
Daemons lie about everything! Except the part where they say that everything that ever happens is actually totally a part of their super elaborate plan, even as you chop up their cultists, burn their tomes, and topple their shrines. That part is always totally true.



If Chaos was so omnicompetent that a single monologue by a single Greater Daemon was enough to make even the most guarded and highly-trained of listeners their unwitting slave forever unless they immediately start cauterizing parts of their brain, we wouldn't be into the double digits of Everchosen. By all means, be cautious and skeptical of your actions around this kind of thing, but a Lord of Change making an appearance doesn't instantly transform literally every option into a trap option.

@Boney Are you moving the AV amount tracker (X gallons) to the char sheet (maybe next to personal wealth) after we finish the research chain? It seems a bit awkward for it to still be in turn starts if there's no longer an AV research actions section to attach it to.

I might, I'll see what that part of the turn vote looks like next time it rolls around.

Hmmmm... I was thinking of how we could counter this demon's bullshit about 'talking in the past' and I figure: What are words spoken to you in the past? A memory. And we are a Grey Wizard, in a college of Grey Wizards.

All I figure we need to do to fix this stupid mess is ask our buddy Ranald to perform some open soul surgery on us to get rid of the soul parasite that is the Fated trait, then go to the Grey College, tell them what we heard and just ask them to remove our memory of what it said to us so we can just go about our business as normal without compromised judgement/second guessing ourself.

@Boney Would this work?

As others have pointed out, Grey Wizards cannot edit memories. They can remove all memories of themselves from a target with Mindhole, or conceal specially-prepared memories to be revealed on a specific trigger with whatever they used for the memory packets.
 
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