The primary reason I didn't vote for that Intelligence option is a question I still haven't seen answered. How is it actionable? What would we do with the answer?

If we were told it took 150 impact or if we were told it took 300 impact, how does that alter our behavior?
Because it would give us information that would inform how we think about this conflict. We do not, formally speaking, have any real idea how resilient the Syndicate is. We think we know, but we could be wrong. Is this going to take two or three more years? More like five to seven? Or will it take ten or fifteen?

In the former case, we may want to crank up our impact but we probably don't need to, for example, create entire new organizations and systems specifically dedicated to ending the conflict.

In the latter cases, we may need to take drastic steps in order to stop this conflict from breaking our backs due to cumulative political damage.

Because you don't approach a war that will be over in 2313 the same way you approach a conflict that will still be on in 2323.

...

Ultimately, intelligence reports aren't about giving us mechanical advantages. They're about a resource that is incredibly valuable and not something you can really 'price' in terms of in-game resources: information that tells us what is going on.

Our intelligence reports reflect what we think it is important for us to know about what is going on in the galaxy. By voting to spend two on Cardassia, two on the Klingon-Romulan War, and two on the Sydraxians, we effectively voted to have zero in-character knowledge about the Syndicate and how it is faring in our war with it.

I am pretty sure that we would have been better off peeling loose one of our Klingon-Romulan reports (mechanically, it'd have to be the Klingon POV one) for that purpose. Because knowing why a bunch of Klingons are thinking of attacking the Romulans is unlikely to do nearly as much to inform our decision-making next year, as knowing how much more of a pounding the Syndicate can take before anything vital cracks.
 
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...No way. Losing the Dawiar hurts their ability to hurt us.

Losing Bajor helps our ability to hurt them.

Which bothers you more, having the knife you had at their throat knocked out of your hand? Or having a knife suddenly placed at your throat? Which is more likely to motivate you to desperate action?

The Cardassians have much more to lose from ceding us influence over Bajor than over Dawiar.

I don't think the Cardassians see a functional difference between attacking others and defending their people. They're both means to an end, that's all.

There's also a question of degree, which you neatly sidestepped. Bajor shifting from neutral to Federation aligned doesn't help us as much as you seem to think, whereas the Dawiar shifting from Cardassian to Federation costs them one of their few allies and gains us a decent sized military, if not the most advanced.

Can you explain to me why having a planet ten light years closer to Cardassian borders than our current affiliates represents such a massive threat to the Cardassians? I think you're overestimating Bajor's importance because of how close it was to Cardassia Prime in canon. Here it's much further away, and as such less critical.
 
Proposed New Fleet Distribution (Now that we know Ferasa sector defense requirement.)

Sol (D15)
Currently: 1 Excelsior [Endurance] (6), 1 Centaur-A (3) [Bull], 3 Miranda [Lion, Bon Vivant, Fidelity] (6), Starbase 1* (5)
Proposed: Leave as is.
Rationale: Already demonstrated repeated Sydraxian attacks; Vega starbase will not be in service until Q4

Betazed (D3)
Currently: 1 Constellation [Selaya] (3)
Proposed: Leave as is.

Vulcan (D12)
Currently: 1 Constellation [Sappho] (3), 1 Centaur-A (3) [Lightning], 1 Miranda (2) [T'Kumbra], Starbase I (5)
Proposed: 1 Constellation [Sappho] (3), 2 Mirandas (4) [T'Kumbra, Thunderhead], Starbase I (5) = Add Thunderhead, remove Lightning for duty in Andoria.
Rationale: Vulcan is in a core sector with no open borders. Minimum fleet is fine.

Andoria (D9)
Currently: 1 Excelsior (6) [Avandar], 1 Constellation (3) [Docana], 1 Miranda (2) [Eketha], 1 Oberth [Suvek] (1), Starbase I (5)
Proposed: 1 Constellation (3) [Docana], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Lightning], 1 Miranda (2) [Eketha], 1 Oberth [Suvek] (1), Starbase I (5) = Add Lightning, pull the Avandar off for duties in Caitian Sector.
Rationale: Andoria is now a core sector with no open borders. A constellation, a Centaur-A, a Miranda, plus the sensors of an Oberth and a Starbase ought to be plenty for anti-Syndicate operations as the Avandar is more urgently needed in Caitian sector.

Tellar Prime (D9)
Currently: 1 Constellation (3) [Stalwart], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Gale], 1 Miranda (2) [Calypso], Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5)
Proposed: Leave as it.
Rationale: With potential Sydraxian/Yrillian attacks, going below three ships not recommended.

Amarkia (D9)
Currently: 1 Excelsior (6) [Salnas], 1 Constellation (3) [Vigour], 1 Miranda [Dryad] (2), Oberth [Hawking] (1), Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5)
Proposed: 1 Excelsior (6) [Salnas], 1 Constellation (3) [Vigour], 1 Miranda [Dryad] (2), Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5) = Send off Hawking to help patrol RBZ.
Rationale: Represents open front in ongoing Sydraxian war, as well as key anti-Syndicate operations.

Ferasa (D12)
Currently: Ferasa Station [Starbase I]
Proposed: 1 Excelsior (6) [Avandar], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Blizzard], Starbase I (5)
Rationale: Being a border Sector and highest priority for anti-Syndicate activities needs an Excelsior and back-up ship.

Romulan Border Zone (Currently D12)
Currently: 1 Excelsior (6) [Excelsior], 2 Miranda (4) [Svai, Thunderhead], Starbase I (5)
Proposed: 1 Excelsior (6) [Excelsior], 1 Miranda (2) [Svai], Oberth [Hawking] (1), Starbase I (5) = Pull off 1 Miranda [Thunderhead] for duties in Vulcan; add Hawking for extra monitoring
Rationale: Needs high Science to spot cloaked ships more than high firepower.

Klingon Border Zone (Currently D6)
Currently: 1 Constellation (3) [Kearsage], 2 Miranda (4) [Intrepid, Shield], 1 Oberth (1) [Inspire]
Proposed: Leave as is.
Rationale: Will reshuffle to send an Excelsior their way next year.

Cardassian Border Zone (Currently D10)
Currently: 1 Constitution (5) [Cheron], 1 Excelsior (6) [Kumari), 1 Constellation (3) [Challorn], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Winterwind]
Proposed: Keep as is.
Rationale: Starbase will not be up until 2312. After that we can consider drawing down a ship.
 
I don't think the Cardassians see a functional difference between attacking others and defending their people. They're both means to an end, that's all.
Are you kidding? The Cardassians have a massive fixation in their ideology on hearth, home, family, and protecting their own people. They justify all their acts of aggression in those terms.

Presenting an offensive threat to Cardassia itself is going to be taken far more seriously than removing Cardassia's ability to mildly inconvenience the Federation from a particular direction.

There's also a question of degree, which you neatly sidestepped. Bajor shifting from neutral to Federation aligned doesn't help us as much as you seem to think, whereas the Dawiar shifting from Cardassian to Federation costs them one of their few allies and gains us a decent sized military, if not the most advanced.[/quote]The Dawiar are a month or so's travel from Cardassia, and their military is only a small addition to the forces arrayed against Cardassia. The Dawiar are useful as an ally... but ultimately, if there was a major war between us and Cardassia, the Dawiar would be little more than a minor distraction to us.

The positional advantage we gain from holding Bajor is potentially critical, in that it gives us a jumping-off point that halves the distance between our space and theirs, and removes the last layer of strategic buffer territory between us and them.

Can you explain to me why having a planet ten light years closer to Cardassian borders than our current affiliates represents such a massive threat to the Cardassians? I think you're overestimating Bajor's importance because of how close it was to Cardassia Prime in canon. Here it's much further away, and as such less critical.
Because there is a major difference between us being able to position a fleet one week's travel time from their frontier worlds, and two weeks' travel time.

This is like asking why the US was upset when the Russians put missiles in Cuba given that there were already missiles in Russia.
 
Proposed New Fleet Distribution (Now that we know Ferasa sector defense requirement.)

Sol (D15)
Currently: 1 Excelsior [Endurance] (6), 1 Centaur-A (3) [Bull], 3 Miranda [Lion, Bon Vivant, Fidelity] (6), Starbase 1* (5)
Proposed: Leave as is.
Rationale: Already demonstrated repeated Sydraxian attacks; Vega starbase will not be in service until Q4

Betazed (D3)
Currently: 1 Constellation [Selaya] (3)
Proposed: Leave as is.

Vulcan (D12)
Currently: 1 Constellation [Sappho] (3), 1 Centaur-A (3) [Lightning], 1 Miranda (2) [T'Kumbra], Starbase I (5)
Proposed: 1 Constellation [Sappho] (3), 2 Mirandas (4) [T'Kumbra, Thunderhead], Starbase I (5) = Add Thunderhead, remove Lightning for duty in Andoria.
Rationale: Vulcan is in a core sector with no open borders. Minimum fleet is fine.

Andoria (D9)
Currently: 1 Excelsior (6) [Avandar], 1 Constellation (3) [Docana], 1 Miranda (2) [Eketha], 1 Oberth [Suvek] (1), Starbase I (5)
Proposed: 1 Constellation (3) [Docana], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Lightning], 1 Miranda (2) [Eketha], 1 Oberth [Suvek] (1), Starbase I (5) = Add Lightning, pull the Avandar off for duties in Caitian Sector.
Rationale: Andoria is now a core sector with no open borders. A constellation, a Centaur-A, a Miranda, plus the sensors of an Oberth and a Starbase ought to be plenty for anti-Syndicate operations as the Avandar is more urgently needed in Caitian sector.

Tellar Prime (D9)
Currently: 1 Constellation (3) [Stalwart], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Gale], 1 Miranda (2) [Calypso], Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5)
Proposed: Leave as it.
Rationale: With potential Sydraxian/Yrillian attacks, going below three ships not recommended.

Amarkia (D9)
Currently: 1 Excelsior (6) [Salnas], 1 Constellation (3) [Vigour], 1 Miranda [Dryad] (2), Oberth [Hawking] (1), Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5)
Proposed: 1 Excelsior (6) [Salnas], 1 Constellation (3) [Vigour], 1 Miranda [Dryad] (2), Starbase I (5), Extra Outposts (5) = Send off Hawking to help patrol RBZ.
Rationale: Represents open front in ongoing Sydraxian war, as well as key anti-Syndicate operations.

Ferasa (D12)
Currently: Ferasa Station [Starbase I]
Proposed: 1 Excelsior (6) [Avandar], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Blizzard], Starbase I (5)
Rationale: Being a border Sector and highest priority for anti-Syndicate activities needs an Excelsior and back-up ship.

Romulan Border Zone (Currently D12)
Currently: 1 Excelsior (6) [Excelsior], 2 Miranda (4) [Svai, Thunderhead], Starbase I (5)
Proposed: 1 Excelsior (6) [Excelsior], 1 Miranda (2) [Svai], Oberth [Hawking] (1), Starbase I (5) = Pull off 1 Miranda [Thunderhead] for duties in Vulcan; add Hawking for extra monitoring
Rationale: Needs high Science to spot cloaked ships more than high firepower.

Klingon Border Zone (Currently D6)
Currently: 1 Constellation (3) [Kearsage], 2 Miranda (4) [Intrepid, Shield], 1 Oberth (1) [Inspire]
Proposed: Leave as is.
Rationale: Will reshuffle to send an Excelsior their way next year.

Cardassian Border Zone (Currently D10)
Currently: 1 Constitution (5) [Cheron], 1 Excelsior (6) [Kumari), 1 Constellation (3) [Challorn], 1 Centaur-A (3) [Winterwind]
Proposed: Keep as is.
Rationale: Starbase will not be up until 2312. After that we can consider drawing down a ship.
I would move Dryad to Ferasa since the Amarki are better able to patrol and defend their sector.
 
I wonder where the blame for this particular incident is going to fall. It was a Caitian captain, Federation security, Starfleet for orbital cover... thankfully Starfleet is mostly not in the line of responsibility but some blame will fall on us naturally.

Pity that Linderley will likely not have to resign over this :V. It's not his fault, obviously, but having a councilor assassinated due to infiltration could land on his head as much as hitting a mine during a intel op landed on zh'Rhashaan's. I don't think it will, but eventually Syndicate pushback failures will get Starfleet into political hot water, and someone will end up getting the axe.
 
Are you kidding? The Cardassians have a massive fixation in their ideology on hearth, home, family, and protecting their own people. They justify all their acts of aggression in those terms.

Presenting an offensive threat to Cardassia itself is going to be taken far more seriously than removing Cardassia's ability to mildly inconvenience the Federation from a particular direction.

The Dawiar are a month or so's travel from Cardassia, and their military is only a small addition to the forces arrayed against Cardassia. The Dawiar are useful as an ally... but ultimately, if there was a major war between us and Cardassia, the Dawiar would be little more than a minor distraction to us.

The positional advantage we gain from holding Bajor is potentially critical, in that it gives us a jumping-off point that halves the distance between our space and theirs, and removes the last layer of strategic buffer territory between us and them.

Because there is a major difference between us being able to position a fleet one week's travel time from their frontier worlds, and two weeks' travel time.

This is like asking why the US was upset when the Russians put missiles in Cuba given that there were already missiles in Russia.

The Cuban missile crisis comparison is dumb, because the technical details don't line up. The difference between one weeks notice and two means that some of your ships won't be in position, but you still have time to get everyone to high alert and consolidate your border patrols. Whereas in the Cuba case, it was the difference between missiles that took several hours between launch and impact, during which a retaliatory strike could easily be made, and the possibility of a five minute strike that couldn't be reacted to.

So unless you're arguing the Cardassians can get their ships together in two weeks, but would be completely unable to respond in a week, your comparison doesn't make any sense.
 
Hm.

Ratification events normally give us a generous amount of PP, and the Syndicate wiped out those gains as well as about.. 30 or so PP from that Cost (Counting next year)?

All in all, I think spending 50 or more PP to end the conflict in our favor would be well worth it.
 
They're probably buying into the whole "The Federation is weak! All we have to do is scare them a little and they'll back off! Ha ha!" thing that seems to permeate the Alpha and Beta quadrants.

They'll make a great example of what happens when you piss the Fed off.

It seems like that but it just seems so stupid to me... It may make some sense when somebody like the Cardassians or Klingongs go that route but the balance of power between us and the Syndicate is vastly different and even if we were weak we would still far more powerful than the syndicate.

The Syndicate is used to operating with displays of terror to cause opponents to rethink their strategies and back off.Make an example of one person to cause a hundred to keep their heads down.

Except the Federation has a belief in their principals that sometimes borders on fanatical. And the Federation has waaayyyyyyy more people, infrastructure, and talent. This is going to be bloody.

The thing is that this tactic of scaring a state into retreating doesn't work and pretty much everybody knows it, especially not when the balance of power is as much in our favour as it is here. Hell, even in a country like Columbia the reaction to Pablo Escobar resulting to large scale violence was a call for harder prosecution and not less (and the same can be seen in Mexico where the best promise to get votes is to move against the Cartels) or the general reaction to terror attacks.

The Syndicate is half criminal and half cult. On a really fundamental level I don't think they actually care about profit so much as they care about maintaining the mythology and function of the Orion Syndicate. And since the Federation itself is pretty hard to corrupt on account of being post scarcity, they're hitting the ceremonies to mess with us on a symbolic level, to demonstrate on some animal level that they're not to be fucked with. In a way, I suspect the Federation's expansion was already viewed as an existential threat by many in the Syndicate. We've just given that faction proof.

I disagree here actually, I think that the Syndicate could have benefited immensely from Orion joining the Federation. It would have opened up an immense market (because there will always be a desire for the forbidden) they could have easily dominated if they had stayed on the radar.

The Syndicate is like the Mafia. Actually, like the mythologized version of the Mafia, the one that supposedly dates back to the Middle Ages and originated as a guerilla force resisting foreign occupation of Sicily.

Threaten them enough and they apparently stop thinking of themselves as criminals, and start thinking of themselves as guerillas again.

The Mafia knows that its best chance of survival is in staying hidden and generally avoids openly challenging the state (be it in the US or in Italy) because they know they will lose such a conflict.
 
It's worth noting that Orion recently went through a civil war in which a lot of high-end corporate power structures were overthrown, and as I understand it, the Syndicate was involved. They may be modeling this as a logical extension of the kind of "victory by decapitating the enemy oligarchy" tactics that brought about revolutionary change in Orion space itself.
.

If @Iron Wolf and I are operating on a similar narrative wavelength the easiest shorthand for the political situation (By no means the cultural or military one though) would be France in 1792. The old structures are still in place, they still have wealth and power, but everything is unbalanced. Think of the Hypercorps and the Syndicate as factions of the traditional aristocracy... And we've apparently decided that there is no room for middle ground or slow evolution. It's us or the Syndicate.
 
It seems like that but it just seems so stupid to me... It may make some sense when somebody like the Cardassians or Klingongs go that route but the balance of power between us and the Syndicate is vastly different and even if we were weak we would still far more powerful than the syndicate.



The thing is that this tactic of scaring a state into retreating doesn't work and pretty much everybody knows it, especially not when the balance of power is as much in our favour as it is here. Hell, even in a country like Columbia the reaction to Pablo Escobar resulting to large scale violence was a call for harder prosecution and not less (and the same can be seen in Mexico where the best promise to get votes is to move against the Cartels) or the general reaction to terror attacks.



I disagree here actually, I think that the Syndicate could have benefited immensely from Orion joining the Federation. It would have opened up an immense market (because there will always be a desire for the forbidden) they could have easily dominated if they had stayed on the radar.



The Mafia knows that its best chance of survival is in staying hidden and generally avoids openly challenging the state (be it in the US or in Italy) because they know they will lose such a conflict.

You don't scare a state into retreat, you exhaust it. You make them pay for every inch, and take every opportunity to hit back for minimal cost, even if most of your plans fail. People get tired of fighting a long war against a hidden enemy with few visible results, and they complain to their politicians. Some politicians then try to ride the backlash into office and call for ending the conflict.

The Federation is more idealistic than most societies, but there's only so much discomfort they are willing to put up with in the name of justice, especially if the efforts are seen to be ineffective.
 
Agreed. We still don't know if the Syndicate is capable of 'tanking' more like 300 impact... or more like 3000.
I doubt the Syndicate can take that much Impact if only because it would mean victory is impossible. After all what do you think happens if our Cost gets high enough to reduce our PP Income by over 100%? Even if we assume income only refers to our fixed income and not our total I doubt going over 100% will be good. Odds are that would see Admiral Kahurangi forced out of office.

If we assume that past year's costs remain at half and don't decay, which I hope it does, then we'd cross that threshold by Cost 201 at the latest.

Given how heavily the Syndicate is hitting us I think it's reasonable to assume we've dealt some serious damage. If we assume Impact hits them anywhere close to as hard as it does us then I'd guess their maximum would be somewhere between 100 Impact and 150 Impact. I like 150 Impact since our Anti-Syndicate bill needed a minimum of 15 Impact which would, assuming no extra events, put the Syndicate down in 10 years.

Does it decrease our total pp or does it decrease pp income? That is, does Cost also decrease pp gotten from Events?
We don't know. People asked @OneirosTheWriter but he never answered.

Oh god.

We must stop for a couple years to tear down this insane culture which is vulnerable to "hit by bus syndrome".
...wow. I didn't even notice that when I was reading the update. That is terrible security design. You never put everyone in one ship! Since they were already sending three shuttles down the three groups should have been split evenly not concentrated.
 
I would move Dryad to Ferasa since the Amarki are better able to patrol and defend their sector.

The main reason I left Amarkia and Sol buffed so heavily is the Sydraxians. Those sectors are likely to be hit if that war suddenly turns hotter. Also, by the same token Ferasa also has a pretty great navy and is well able to patrol and defend their sector.

All in all, I think spending 50 or more PP to end the conflict in our favor would be well worth it.

It would, but I'm not sure that's really on offer. Our current attack plan gives us a baseline 18 impact per year using 9/10 influence and costing 10 pp per year. If we took the maximal options on offer, we couldn't get to more than 21 Impact per year or so. There doesn't seem to be a lot further to go.
 
The positional advantage we gain from holding Bajor is potentially critical, in that it gives us a jumping-off point that halves the distance between our space and theirs, and removes the last layer of strategic buffer territory between us and them.
Less critical then you think actually, considering the Seyek are already associates to the federation. It's only going to decress the jumping off distance like 5-10%, not 50%. nor is it much of a strategic buffer given that Indoria is nearly as close to Cardassia as it is. though there are two colonies that are closer to it. It's not really much of a buffer zone. now if it was a sector further away from federation space...
 
On the Bajorans, why doesn't the argument apply in reverse? Why aren't we worried about the Cardassian Union getting more involved in Bajor and doing something like striking a deal to build a fleet base there? Wouldn't that be Cuban Missile Crisis enough? Sure, they have to go sectors and sectors to get to Earth or Tellar, but the Indorians and Appinae are right there. And about to become full members to boot. We could lose billions of citizens from a no-reaction strike from Bajoran space.

You think that just because we are the peaceful Federation and that Sol is half the quadrant away that we can ignore threats like the Cardassians pushing Bajor farther into their sphere? It is a knife to our throat as much as it could potentially be to theirs. I would rather have the Bajorans on our side than have the Cardassians looking greedily at the Appinae sector from client or occupied Bajor.
 
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It would, but I'm not sure that's really on offer. Our current attack plan gives us a baseline 18 impact per year using 9/10 influence and costing 10 pp per year. If we took the maximal options on offer, we couldn't get to more than 21 Impact per year or so. There doesn't seem to be a lot further to go.
The end of this latest update said that the Council's preparing for broader conflict against the Syndicate, so we're sure to have far more options against them shortly.
 
On the Bajorans, why doesn't the argument apply in reverse? Why aren't we worried about the Cardassian Union getting more involved in Bajor and doing something like striking a deal to build a fleet base there? Wouldn't that be Cuban Missile Crisis enough? Sure, they have to go sectors and sectors to get to Earth or Tellar, but the Indorians and Appinae are right there. And about to become full members to boot. We could lose billions of citizens from a no-reaction strike from Bajoran space.

You think that just because we are the peaceful Federation and that Sol is half the quadrant away that we can ignore threats like the Cardassians pushing Bajor farther into their sphere? It is a knife to our throat as much as it could potentially be to theirs. I would rather have the Bajorans on our side than have the Cardassians looking greedily at the Appinae sector from client or occupied Bajor.

From a ruthlessly pragmatic perspective, Bajor in Cardassian hands doesn't threaten us that much because our key infrastructure is in our four original sectors, none of which are vulnerable to a base strike from Bajor. Yes, we could take heavy losses in the Apinae sector and among the Seyek, but we could survive it in all likelihood. You are right though to say it isn't a one way street.
 
Honestly Bajor is far more of a threat against the Federation then Cardassia. Bajor is within a week's travel of the Indorian and Seyek homeworlds. Meanwhile the only things within a week's travel of Bajor on the Cardassian side of the border is Balogot (generic outpost) and Galundun (Starbase and Shipyards).
 
Bajor is a threat to Rethelia(Seyek) and Indoria(Indorians) in Cardassian hands and a threat to Galundun and Balogot in ours. Oriolis 3(Dawiar) is a threat to Ferasa(Catians), Arqeniou/Larcasis(Q'Loath) and Risa(Risans) in Cardassian hands and no threat in ours. Let's get Dawiar and see what the tension levels do before going after Bajor.
 
It's worth noting that Orion recently went through a civil war in which a lot of high-end corporate power structures were overthrown, and as I understand it, the Syndicate was involved. They may be modeling this as a logical extension of the kind of "victory by decapitating the enemy oligarchy" tactics that brought about revolutionary change in Orion space itself.
As I've been fleshing out the Orions more in my Omakes, there's been a sort of unconscious decision to examine what was sort-of a throwaway line in the original brief:
A relatively new player in the region, the Orion Union is an amalgamation of the Free Orion Republic, the Orion People's Collective and a smattering of independent worlds that have banded
In my mind, the Free Orion Republic and the Orion People's Collective were two separate revolutions or independence (from Corporate and to a lesser extent Syndicate) control, probably with very different methods and outcomes. The People's Collective, I imagine, was more of a Russian or French Revolution, one premised on overthrowing an entire system and replacing it with something new. The Free Orion Republic I imagine fought a more pragmatic war based on independence first, and the oligarchs using it to save their asses from the mobs second. Either the OG American Revolution or some sort of weird reverse American Civil War where the Confederacy was anti-slavery. Although I suppose it's possible they did it through some sort of peaceful arrangement.

If @Iron Wolf and I are operating on a similar narrative wavelength the easiest shorthand for the political situation (By no means the cultural or military one though) would be France in 1792. The old structures are still in place, they still have wealth and power, but everything is unbalanced. Think of the Hypercorps and the Syndicate as factions of the traditional aristocracy... And we've apparently decided that there is no room for middle ground or slow evolution. It's us or the Syndicate.
There's quite a lot inspiring the politics of the Union, from Colombia to the United States to Afghanistan in the 1980's. However they are indeed trapped in two worlds. Fully two of the three major parties are explicitly against integration with the Federation. The dawn of integration would be the death knell of their parties as they know them. And they no doubt view operations based around using Federation assets rather than something softer like supporting indigenous Orion units as being something out of their worst nightmares.

How bad does the Syndicate look next to that?
 
The Cuban missile crisis comparison is dumb, because the technical details don't line up. The difference between one weeks notice and two means that some of your ships won't be in position, but you still have time to get everyone to high alert and consolidate your border patrols. Whereas in the Cuba case, it was the difference between missiles that took several hours between launch and impact, during which a retaliatory strike could easily be made, and the possibility of a five minute strike that couldn't be reacted to.

So unless you're arguing the Cardassians can get their ships together in two weeks, but would be completely unable to respond in a week, your comparison doesn't make any sense.
Basically, what it comes down to is that with one week's notice rather than two, or two rather than three, their ability to reinforce the most threatened sector(s) of their border are greatly reduced.

We can't get tactical surprise by jumping off from Bajor, the Cardassians will still know we're coming. But we get a greatly increased degree of operational surprise, in that the Cardassians have less ability to react and reposition in response to a hypothetical Federation attack. It's not literally as bad as the Cuban Missile Crisis (where the time difference was more like four minutes from Cuba versus thirty from Siberia), but it's the same general category of problem. Literally everyone hates giving a potential enemy an easy, secure base from which to launch a potential surprise attack more efficiently, right next to their territory. This is not something that anyone takes casually or lightly or accepts without serious opposition.

And since we're already having major trouble with the Syndicate and the Sydraxians, while the Cardassians are still tearing themselves apart over the Kadak-Tor incident, we really do not need to do anything that would make them think we are positioning for a surprise attack (say, one in 2312 bolstered by our first wave of ConnieBees). That would give them every reason to make a maximum-effort push via the Sydraxians and Syndicate to destabilize us.

The thing is that this tactic of scaring a state into retreating doesn't work and pretty much everybody knows it, especially not when the balance of power is as much in our favour as it is here. Hell, even in a country like Columbia the reaction to Pablo Escobar resulting to large scale violence was a call for harder prosecution and not less (and the same can be seen in Mexico where the best promise to get votes is to move against the Cartels) or the general reaction to terror attacks.
If the omakes are to be believed, the current generation of Syndicate leaders is accustomed to terrorizing Orions into submission and doesn't grasp how that won't work against the Federation. Because the Syndicate doesn't have such deep infiltration and penetration of Federation society, doesn't have legitimacy they way they do with a lot of Orions.

The Syndicate actually can scare the Union into retreating, because the Syndicate is so powerful in Orion space that it is almost a "shadow government." It's remotely believable that if there were no outside interference, the Syndicate could somehow effectively take over the Orion species.

This may well have led them to misunderstand how practical their terror tactics are against the Federation.

The Mafia knows that its best chance of survival is in staying hidden and generally avoids openly challenging the state (be it in the US or in Italy) because they know they will lose such a conflict.
You misunderstood.

Look. The mythologized version of the Mafia's origin is that they started as guerilla fighters opposing a French occupation of Sicily. We have reason to think that is not true- which is why I call it "mythologized."

My point is that the Syndicate really IS like that. They did not originate merely as very successful criminal gangs. They think of themselves more like a nationalistic cult or a pseudo-government than any normal organized crime syndicate. That is why I made the point I did- that, under the pressure they are now facing, they have reverted to thinking of themselves as guerillas fighting the Federation government, NOT as criminals trying to lie low until the heat subsides.

On the Bajorans, why doesn't the argument apply in reverse? Why aren't we worried about the Cardassian Union getting more involved in Bajor and doing something like striking a deal to build a fleet base there? Wouldn't that be Cuban Missile Crisis enough? Sure, they have to go sectors and sectors to get to Earth or Tellar, but the Indorians and Appinae are right there. And about to become full members to boot. We could lose billions of citizens from a no-reaction strike from Bajoran space.

You think that just because we are the peaceful Federation and that Sol is half the quadrant away that we can ignore threats like the Cardassians pushing Bajor farther into their sphere? It is a knife to our throat as much as it could potentially be to theirs. I would rather have the Bajorans on our side than have the Cardassians looking greedily at the Appinae sector from client or occupied Bajor.
Our throat is two months' travel away from their knife.

Look. A few days ago everyone was Very Worried about the Sydraxians. Now we're Very Worried about the Syndicate too. Do you really want to poke a hornet's nest with Cardassia right now? Do we not have enough to worry about from your point of view?
 
2310.Q4 - Council Emergency Session Pt 1
Federation Council Chambers, Paris, Sol III

With the Caitian Councillors taking their seats, one sitting with the pacifists, one with the expansionists, and one with the developmentalists, the raw numbers of the Council were greater ... but the empty seat behind the "Vega" nameplate is felt all the more keenly for it. It is as somber a mood as you can recall, even moreso than the Amarkian ratification or the depths of the Biophage crisis. The bright colours that are common among the formal wear of the Council have given way to grey hues that match the winter storms that are burying Paris now.

Hans Carmichael was a native of old Western Europe on Earth who had moved to Vega as a young man and fell in love with his adopted home. A patron of industry and justice, he had been known as much as a man of integrity as he was of jokes and laughter. In his younger days he played rugby, and you are surprised to find out that you have personally seen him play the Starfleet Academy team while you attended. A gifted administrator and motivator, both key skills in a world of post-scarcity when people worked for self-betterment rather than profit, he made the switch to politics late. In his older years his hawkish tendencies formalised, and when Councillor Korielis formed that faction, Hans switched over from the developmental faction. With Vega's exposed position to Yrillian piracy, he was a friend to Starfleet, and had voted in favour of your last appropriations act.

He was laid to rest with full state honours in his adopted home of Vega, ferried by the USS Lightning.

But that was then, you remind yourself. This council is now. This is a time for the present.

Rob Langford is back, very unsteady on a prosthetic leg. This is his first official appearance since his injury. Councillor Ryuk Min-Sun of Lalande has been carrying on the party leadership in his absence. With the political power of the expansionists shocked by the calamity of the ratification ceremony, and their leadership wounded, the political bickering has been fierce. The expansionists and developmentalist factions were the backers of the Anti-Slavery Act of 2309, and thus both are tarred. The hawks, down to three members, are in disarray, and unable to take advantage. But the pacifists are on the march.

To combat the firestorm sweeping Parisian alleys, salons, and chambers, you turn to your most veteran political operator; Valentina Sousa. All of your senior officers are on deck, but Sousa leads the effort. Interviews with Federation Broadcast Service, Sol News, the Vegan Post, the Vulcan Sector Associated News Agency and others. Confidential briefings, steak and synthehol, the works. The fight to assign blame between Starfleet and Federation Diplomatic Service is monstrous. But in the end, Straak killed the assassin, and the DS' security service didn't, so the deck is loaded in your favour. Sousa helps you make that count. Collectively, you go for the jugular, ripping apart the Diplomatic Service's attempt at a security plan. The piling together of high priority targets. When you throw at them that if N'rraw had simply set her phaser to overload they would have wiped out the whole shuttle of Councillors, there is very little more that can be said. Only the Syndicate's apparent desire for having the assassination on the red carpet saved everyone from that fate. Their boss tenders his resignation, and a new Andorian woman takes his place. It gives a sharp and bloody rebuff to the formerly rampant pacifist faction, who had championed the former head of the Diplomatic Service.

Victory, you suppose, but it tastes like ashes in your mouth.

President sh'Arrath opens the council session with another commemoration for Councillor Carmichael, and well-wishes for Rob Langford. Captain Straak's intervention receives a mention. The Vulcan has come out of this smelling like roses, in no small part to the efforts of yourself and Sulu. No one throws your Captain under the shuttle. Admirals play at their own peril, but a starship Captain will always have you at their back.

Over two days, the Council convulses with debate over where to go next. Something more is needed. The preliminary reports you are getting from Scott Linderley confirm this; the Syndicate's resilience and breadth are startlingly higher than was first envisioned. You've made a mark and cut deeper than any non-Orion has in centuries, make no mistake. Which is why you have the full attention of the Syndicate now. No doubt your face is on a dartboard somewhere in the heart of Alukk.

After the Council meetings you are left more drained than you ever have before. You joke with your senior officers that they must all be thinking what you are, "Why, oh why, did I ever let them promote me off that bridge?" But there's something extra under your voice as you say it. You're tired. Tired of the politics, the stress of your job. Tired of the buck stopping with you. You've done your service to the Federation. You still have golden years ahead of you. In your heart, you know that next year will be your last before retirement. But for now, you keep that to yourself.

==============================



Pick a focal point for developing the next tranche of anti-Syndicate legislation:

[ ] Federation Diplomatic Service (New options mostly related to member and affiliate governments)
You defeated them in the political arena, which is no small feat, as the Federation Diplomatic Service is a colossus that strides the political life of the Federation. Personally, you think they had gotten a touch of victory disease with how affiliates and members were falling into their lap, a lot of it thanks to Starfleet. Their new leader is not fond of you, but this is the Federation. Even in your political wrangling, you work for the future of the Federation, not for self-aggrandizement. Their links to the various governments run deep, and they can get the various organs of government moving in the right direction.

[ ] Member World Coordination Office (New options mostly related to member and affiliate fleets and combat actions)
Partially a creature of Starfleet, partially of other agencies, partially of the member worlds. The MWCO is the deepest link any head of Starfleet has ever had to the member fleets.

[ ] The Pacifists Faction (New options mostly related to non-violence and policing actions)
Stesk and his Councillors have their own ideas for how best to combat a criminal empire, and to your lack of surprise they don't typically involve Starfleet. But perhaps you don't think Starfleet is the best tool for the job either? If you can bring your current friends in the Expansionists and the Pacifists to break bread together there is a lot that can be accomplished.

[ ] The Federation Broadcast Service (New options mostly related to public opinion)
As frustrating as it can be, you respect the role journalists play in the Federation by holding your feet to the fire. It keeps you on your toes and they, like you, want to same thing. The good of the Federation and its people. They won't lie to the people, but you don't need them to. The truth of the Syndicate is enough.
 
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