To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

[Simon_Jester]

I just want to say, any vote that has much risk of leading to war with the Cardassian Union over a provocation will look like this

There will not be a good time to go to war.

If you think that risking war by intervening here is a bad idea, fine... but expect the future to contain incidents like this repeatedly, until we end up in the TNG status quo with the Cardassians and can't help but wonder if things could ever have been different.

Maybe they could have been, and maybe they couldn't. We have a much better chance of finding out now than we do later.

They will get stronger, yes, but not more than us will, the proportionality will play in our favor here, we are bigger, we have a better way of expanding our sphere of influence and we simply value knowledge far more than they do.

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You may have noticed the tag clouds greatly slowing our expansion? Yeah, that's going to be a thing indefinitely.

Also, in the mean time, we can offer some treaties to the Allupi, make it clear to cardassia that if they go for it *it will be war* and either set up some logistical tail, or have a straight to Cardassia plan ready, and giving the border members time to be more prepared...

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We will not be able to attack straight towards Cardassia in the moment the Cardassians first threaten the Allupii. Then, as now, our ships will not be in the ideal position for that. It will never be an optimal time for war. There is no such optimal time, when you're committed to wait for provocation before fighting.

It will not be clear to the Cardassians that we will fight for the Allupii; they will do everything in their power to muddy the waters and it may work. That we did not fight for the Chrystovians OR Bajor will be prominent in their minds.

Offering treaties to the Allupii may not protect them. Such treaties will not be without controversy because of the Allupii social structure. Remember how many people secretly want the Licori government overthrown in a revolution? The Allupii government is little or no better.

More to the point, in Allupi, Cardassia would be operating at the edge of their logistic train, so we could work raiders to make things uncomfortable for them as well, if we have prepared the ground first, and I don't see Cardassia launching that op in less than a few years...

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They're at the end of their supply line in the sense that it's on their border. That's exactly the We would be at the end of our supply line in the sense that it far beyond our border, and most of that supply line runs through hostile territory. The two are in no way comparable.

And given the time, and the effort and the time for political statements, we won't need to race to Allupi to defend them, we might even have a task force in place, with stockpiles and local industries capable of supporting us, with our border members ready,... so, no. sorry Simon, you are mistaken

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A Starfleet task force, even with supply bases in Allupii space, is not bulletproof. It is, at most, an addition to the total naval strength deployed. The Cardassians have more than enough strength to overwhelm a single task force, and they can do so more quickly than we can send a reinforcement fleet all the way around or through their space.

The Cardassians might even welcome a chance to mass a third or half of their fleet against a small fraction of ours, so as to whittle down any overall advantage we have in numbers.

Our border members will not feel ready to fight the Cardassians. They will still be looking at a much larger enemy fleet that is very close to them, and that can greatly endanger them just by winning a few battles. They will still insist on withdrawing their ships from our task forces for self-defense (which is necessary for them to survive the war in any reasonable strategy), and they will still be at most ambivalent. Peace will always be preferable to war for the border members, who mostly joined us specifically because they feared Cardassian conquest otherwise.

Political statements will not benefit us, because the Allupii are not exactly photogenic allies for the Federation. I predict that by the time we've known the Allupii closely for even a few years, there will be posters seriously calling for them to be thrown to the Cardassians. This is pretty much exactly what happened with the Licori.

 

[065tdsa]

The Allupii have actual military might. They could legitimately fight an invasion force and can't be just invaded out of the blue like Bajor was-the Cardassians would need to plan an actual campaign. That's not even going into the fact that resolving Distant Stars tags gives us actual options to help them that don't exist for the Chrystovians.

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So they'll attack somewhere else. Space is 3D, nothing says they have to attack where we want them to and we don't actually have a clue what's on all sides of the Ashalla Pact, but from the sheer density of species we see all over our map we can assume there's literally no single direction for them to go in that doesn't contain somebody to conquer.

 

[Simon_Jester]

The Allupii have actual military might. They could legitimately fight an invasion force and can't be just invaded out of the blue like Bajor was-the Cardassians would need to plan an actual campaign. That's not even going into the fact that resolving Distant Stars tags gives us actual options to help them that don't exist for the Chrystovians.

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Resolving a Distant Stars tag will not actually make the Allupii physically less distant, or give us a wormhole to their territory. We will still have to fly ships to them the long way, it will still take months, and we will still be vulnerable to interdiction by the Cardassians as we fly through or near their space.

The Allupii are strong, but nowhere near strong enough to repel a concerted assault by the Cardassian navy and its allies. Not one that was pre-planned for years and set up in advance to be timed for the moment when the Cardassians were best able to attack. If the Allupii could do that, they'd be a great power already.

If we wait 5-7 years for them to prepare against the Allupii, we will be in the same bad position. The Klingons and Romulans will be more capable of threatening our interests from behind. The ISC may be willing to help but will not be able to offer more in relative terms, because they're smaller than us. The Harmony will still be vaguely dickish and cryptic and threatening to subvert anyone on that border they or we haven't already snapped up.

It's not going to get better.

 

[Forgothrax]

They will get stronger, yes, but not more than us will, the proportionality will play in our favor here, we are bigger, we have a better way of expanding our sphere of influence and we simply value knowledge far more than they do.
Also, in the mean time, we can offer some treaties to the Allupi, make it clear to cardassia that if they go for it *it will be war* and either set up some logistical tail, or have a straight to Cardassia plan ready, and giving the border members time to be more prepared...

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When it comes to straight combat, Cardassians has the edge because they build for war and we don't. Much of our building for the next decade is Keplers and EC Ambies, neither of which are particularly useful per se in an all-out Pact war like Jalduns and Kaldurs. Sure, we need some fleets scouts, and Ambies can be fearsome, but the same outlay of resources in Jalduns or Kaldurs would turn them all to wreckage. We don't have cheap combatants like the Kapit Destroyer either and we won't because of our philosophy. The Cardassians also put most of their weight on Vanguard, which gives their fleet additional weight.

Ship design isn't a Sprint, it's a marathon relay race in which advantages are temporary at best. Even though our research is better as well, expect the Cardassians to maintain parity in the combat trees as that will be their focus and remember that the Imelak will be giving them a shot in the arm. They will also be coming out with an improved beam weapon like our phaser arrays (if not so potent) within the next few years I'm sure.

 

[Glassware]

So they'll attack somewhere else. Space is 3D, nothing says they have to attack where we want them to.

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That's why we task intelligence with identifying Cardassian targets beforehand so that we can work them into a network of defensive agreements and resolve issues like the Distant Stars tag. You know how there were proposals that we could ship mothballed ships over to the Chrystovians that were torpedoed because of Distant Stars and them not being affiliates making it impossible? If we're actually proactive about these things we can make the Cardassian targets more than a speed bump to them, and they will hesitate to attack if they're not sure it's a fight they can win without bloody losses.

 

[MS-21H 'Hawke']

[x] We should intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

*smoke bomb ensues*

 

[AKuz]

[x] We should intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

*smoke bomb ensues*

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YOU TIED THE VOTE

 

[Simon_Jester]

Ship design isn't a Sprint, it's a marathon relay race in which advantages are temporary at best. Even though our research is better as well, expect the Cardassians to maintain parity in the combat trees as that will be their focus and remember that the Imelak will be giving them a shot in the arm. They will also be coming out with an improved beam weapon like our phaser arrays (if not so potent) within the next few years I'm sure.

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I'm expecting to see either the Galor class or its direct predecessor, a 1.5 to 2-megaton cruiser armed with, oh what's that thing the Cardassians have, spiral wave disruptors? Some time in the next 5-10 years. It's about the right time for ships to begin showing up now that were ubiquitous 'rank and file' warships in TNG.

That's why we task intelligence with identifying Cardassian targets beforehand so that we can work them into a network of defensive agreements and resolve issues like the Distant Stars tag. You know how there were proposals that we could ship mothballed ships over to the Chrystovians that were torpedoed because of Distant Stars and them not being affiliates making it impossible? If we're actually proactive about these things we can make the Cardassian targets more than a speed bump to them, and they will hesitate to attack if they're not sure it's a fight they can win without bloody losses.

Click to shrink...

What happens if/when the Cardassians threaten to fight if we do anything that blatant to power-up the Allupii? Will we have pre-positioned and mobilized for war before even offering to do that for the Allupii?

What if it turns out the Allupii are also a threat to some other third-party neighbor of theirs? One that we haven't met yet because all our contact with that entire region is a five year mission? That would hardly be surprising given that their hat is Space Prussian Doggies.

 

[065tdsa]

That's why we task intelligence with identifying Cardassian targets beforehand so that we can work them into a network of defensive agreements and resolve issues like the Distant Stars tag. You know how there were proposals that we could ship mothballed ships over to the Chrystovians that were torpedoed because of Distant Stars and them not being affiliates making it impossible? If we're actually proactive about these things we can make the Cardassian targets more than a speed bump to them, and they will hesitate to attack if they're not sure it's a fight they can win without bloody losses.

Click to shrink...

Unless we can somehow put like 5 (or more) task forces into working on all the tags on every neighbor of an Ashalla Pact race, that just isn't going to work. They'll pick the one we've done the least work with.

A defensive strategy will avail us nothing if we try to protect the entire galaxy in all directions. If we had the ship power to do that a was with the Cardassians would be a non-issue to begin with.

 

[AKuz]

I'm expecting to see either the Galor class or its direct predecessor, a 1.5 to 2-megaton cruiser armed with, oh what's that thing the Cardassians have, spiral wave disruptors? Some time in the next 5-10 years. It's about the right time for ships to begin showing up now that were ubiquitous 'rank and file' warships in TNG.

What happens if/when the Cardassians threaten to fight if we do anything that blatant to power-up the Allupii? Will we have pre-positioned and mobilized for war before even offering to do that for the Allupii?

What if it turns out the Allupii are also a threat to some other third-party neighbor of theirs? One that we haven't met yet because all our contact with that entire region is a five year mission? That would hardly be surprising given that their hat is Space Prussian Doggies.

Click to shrink...

They're not all Space Prussian Doggos

Some are Space Bohemian Doggos

and some are Space Austrian Doggos

and so on

> : P

 

[Simon_Jester]

Unless we can somehow put like 5 (or more) task forces into working on all the tags on every neighbor of an Ashalla Pact race, that just isn't going to work. They'll pick the one we've done the least work with.

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Also, it bears remembering that the Cardassians attacked Bajor as soon as we pushed its Affiliate status. They are quite capable of reacting to a development like "the Federation has finally overcome its reservations about signing a defense treaty with aliens that have nasty habits, and largely broken the aliens of the nasty habit anyway" by simply threatening to invade right then and there, before the treaty is signed.

I mean, we've watched Star Trek, right? The Cardassians are not a bunch of nice guys, and they don't have nearly as many hangups as the Klingons about things like this.

 

[Glassware]

Unless we can somehow put like 5 (or more) task forces into working on all the tags on every neighbor of an Ashalla Pact race, that just isn't going to work. They'll pick the one we've done the least work with.

A defensive strategy will avail us nothing if we try to protect the entire galaxy in all directions.

Click to shrink...

It took them years to invade the Chrystovians. We have more industrial might than they do, and more ships. We can absolutely put five task forces worth of ships on Ashalla Pact containment duty-and as we establish ties with their neighbors, it will get correspondingly easier as each new friend gives us a base of logistics and local contacts to work with.

 

[OneirosTheWriter]

Trying to get the SYO vote written up and I can't do the flavour text yet because I legitimately have no idea how this is going to pan out. :|

 

[065tdsa]

It took them years to invade the Chrystovians. We have more industrial might than they do, and more ships. We can absolutely put five task forces worth of ships on Ashalla Pact containment duty.

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Lol no we can't. Not and meet our other obligations. The Cardassians would have their entire fleet and their Pact members' opposing half of Starfleet at most because we still have all sorts of other problems and the members won't be eager to go to Distant Stars.

If we had that much strength available to deploy in this area of space the war would be a non-issue. And if we ever do get that much strength and deploy it how you want to, and it works to surround the Cardassians... Well, they'll launch a very successful first strike against our scattered fleets, because at that point they'd see no other choice.

They'd never abide by us successfully, completely containing them.

 

[Forgothrax]

I'm expecting to see either the Galor class or its direct predecessor, a 1.5 to 2-megaton cruiser armed with, oh what's that thing the Cardassians have, spiral wave disruptors? Some time in the next 5-10 years. It's about the right time for ships to begin showing up now that were ubiquitous 'rank and file' warships in TNG.

Click to shrink...

Mmm, probably not. The Enterprise-D was launched in 2363. I wouldn't expect Galors until the 40s at the earliest.

 

[sunrise]

Does the SFI know how unified the Cardassian alliance is are there members who might take a major war as the opportunity to leave the alliance instead of fighting?

 

[Simon_Jester]

It took them years to invade the Chrystovians. We have more industrial might than they do, and more ships. We can absolutely put five task forces worth of ships on Ashalla Pact containment duty.

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If we do that, it's likely that we'll be neglecting the Harmony and the Gorn and the Ittick-ka and everything else we've got going on. We'll be leaving the Licori as a troublemaking 'soft spot' with loathsome political habits encysted into the side of our territory.

Mmm, probably not. The Enterprise-D was launched in 2363. I wouldn't expect Galors until the 40s at the earliest.

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Hm, that's fair. I'm imagining the Galor-class as being on a refit by the TNG era. The fact that we saw so many of them, and so few of any ship class weaker than them, suggests to me that by the TNG era the equivalent of the Jalduns had been entirely retired and the Galors had been in mass production for a long time.

 

[MS-21H 'Hawke']

YOU TIED THE VOTE

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*Smoke bomb is thrown at Akuz*

 

[Glassware]

Lol no we can't. Not and meet our other obligations. The Cardassians would have their entire fleet and their Pact members' opposing half of Starfleet at most because we still have all sorts of other problems and the members won't be eager to go to Distant Stars.

If we had that much strength available to deploy in this area of space the war would be a non-issue.

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Resolving Distant Stars with some contacts will make it less likely for it to pop up on new contacts. And I think you're underestimating our strength in TF terms-we're looking at TF Beyond winding down soon, and as we shift our strategic focus back to the Ashalla Pact we can absolutely afford to deploy new task forces to diplomance new species in every direction the Cardassians look. Not every species the Cardassians border is going to be Bajor either-Bajor was already a client when they got couped by the Cardassians, most of the groundwork already in place. There will be species they can't just invade out of nowhere, like the Allupii, and like the Chrystovians would have been if we'd actually put any effort at all into them.

 

[Gingganz]

While the HoH will use our nonintervention to make us look bad, the Cardassians will do the same if we intervene.

The justification they gave for going to war is precisely the Prime Directive, so if we don't find evidence that their story is complete bullshit they will accuse the Federation of betraying its principles, and it will at least look plausible.

On the point that our position is not going to get better:
I would prefer to form defensive agreements with nations bordering the Cardassians first and then have an ironclad reason for going to war. I don't think even the pacifists can argue that we should just break such a treaty. And we don't have to sent ships to the Allupii to help them in case of attack, we can just attack Cardassia and force them to pull back to defend their empire.

 

[Forgothrax]

Hm, that's fair. I'm imagining the Galor-class as being on a refit by the TNG era. The fact that we saw so many of them, and so few of any ship class weaker than them, suggests to me that by the TNG era the equivalent of the Jalduns had been entirely retired and the Galors had been in mass production for a long time.

Click to shrink...

Well, right now their ships are better than ours in some ways but that will change when we refit the Rennie to be much superior to the Jaldun and close to equal with the Kaldar, and refit the Excelsior into a monster again, with our Blooded ones superior to the Tolkor. So I would expect the Cardassians to start drawing up the Galor by the late 20s if they decide to respond with a new class, R&D/prototyping takes 6-8 years, and the first tranche leaves the slipways late 30s/early 40s. 25 years in production is more than sufficient to make them ubiquitous, particularly if they retire the Kaldar and the Jaldun in favor of all-Galors all the time.

 

[Usili 2.0]

YOU TIED THE VOTE

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Okay, while I know I've been advocating for an intervention, I on the other hand really don't like it when quests wind up tying their vote... So, I'm going to have to vote to not intervene in order to break the tie.

[X] We should not intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

 

[Chaos Blade]

I just want to say, any vote that has much risk of leading to war with the Cardassian Union over a provocation will look like this

There will not be a good time to go to war.

If you think that risking war by intervening here is a bad idea, fine... but expect the future to contain incidents like this repeatedly, until we end up in the TNG status quo with the Cardassians and can't help but wonder if things could ever have been different.

Maybe they could have been, and maybe they couldn't. We have a much better chance of finding out now than we do later.

You may have noticed the tag clouds greatly slowing our expansion? Yeah, that's going to be a thing indefinitely.

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heh, and you think the Cardies don't have some similar limiter? no, a far more tight limiter? we get associates rather easy... and who else is left ofr the cardies to anex? the unbound Gaeni? the Allupi? nobody else is adjacent to their territory. this is important

We will not be able to attack straight towards Cardassia in the moment the Cardassians first threaten the Allupii. Then, as now, our ships will not be in the ideal position for that. It will never be an optimal time for war. There is no such optimal time, when you're committed to wait for provocation before fighting.

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Why do you say we wont? besides, it is less we attack and more we make clear what will happen. truth is

It will not be clear to the Cardassians that we will fight for the Allupii; they will do everything in their power to muddy the waters and it may work. That we did not fight for the Chrystovians OR Bajor will be prominent in their minds.

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why wouldn't it be clear? if we have the diplomatic service make it clear to them that further militaristic expansion will be objected, that their possible targets have treaties with the UFP... I mean it wouldn't be anytrhing like the Christovians, or Bajor, so... why would they think it is the same?

Offering treaties to the Allupii may not protect them. Such treaties will not be without controversy because of the Allupii social structure. Remember how many people secretly want the Licori government overthrown in a revolution? The Allupii government is little or no better.

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So, because it mght not be popular, because X or Y, you think going to war now will be more popular or accepted?

They're at the end of their supply line in the sense that it's on their border. That's exactly the We would be at the end of our supply line in the sense that it far beyond our border, and most of that supply line runs through hostile territory. The two are in no way comparable.

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Bullshit, Chrystovia is at the edge of cardassian claimed space, to think they have not prepositioned logistics there is silly, but allupi is some distance from cardassian claimed space, that means we can, assuming we can get a treaty with allupi, perposition a task force there to make the cardie logistics a nightmare...

A Starfleet task force, even with supply bases in Allupii space, is not bulletproof. It is, at most, an addition to the total naval strength deployed. The Cardassians have more than enough strength to overwhelm a single task force, and they can do so more quickly than we can send a reinforcement fleet all the way around or through their space.

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But cardassia needs to defend cardassia, and bajor and other conquered territories, they might sedn enough forces that our taks force will not give them battle in the open (assuming the local Allupi forces aren't enough to tip the balance in our favor) but they can raid and at the same time, cardassia needs to send a sizeable force some distance from their territories while the main Starfleet effort is poised directly at cardassia...

The Cardassians might even welcome a chance to mass a third or half of their fleet against a small fraction of ours, so as to whittle down any overall advantage we have in numbers.

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But they won't because they know we can hit at them in Gabriel and in Cardassia proper, they don't have much depth there and we taking the orbitals of Cardassia would be more or less their loosing condition. So, they send a sizeable chunk of their fleet a long way from their borders, while the bulk of startfleet digs at their heartlands... sounds logic.

Our border members will not feel ready to fight the Cardassians. They will still be looking at a much larger enemy fleet that is very close to them, and that can greatly endanger them just by winning a few battles. They will still insist on withdrawing their ships from our task forces for self-defense (which is necessary for them to survive the war in any reasonable strategy), and they will still be at most ambivalent. Peace will always be preferable to war for the border members, who mostly joined us specifically because they feared Cardassian conquest otherwise.

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A larger Cardassian fleet? this si not about size, is about readiness, our border members simply aren't READY, in the organizational sense, in the logistical sense. it is not a matter of numbers, not really.
So, the cardassian hypothetical fleet size a few years down the road.... is completely irrelevant

Political statements will not benefit us, because the Allupii are not exactly photogenic allies for the Federation. I predict that by the time we've known the Allupii closely for even a few years, there will be posters seriously calling for them to be thrown to the Cardassians. This is pretty much exactly what happened with the Licori.

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Reach harder, so you plan to go to war over a polity we really haven't engaged with, we can't reach in time and we really haven't prepared to defend instead. THe allupi aren't perfect but if we make a solid commitment at defending them, from the diplomatic service, the council and what not, we can sell the idea to the fed citizen.
The Licori affair had more to do we were courting both sides of the conflict and failed to prevent it... don't compare those because they are not the same

 

[AKuz]

Okay, while I know I've been advocating for an intervention, I on the other hand really don't like it when quests wind up tying their vote... So, I'm going to have to vote to not intervene in order to break the tie.

[X] We should not intervene in the Chrystovian invasion.

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Please only vote the way you want to vote.

It'll resolve itself, please don't change your vote just to break the tie.

Edit: lol accidentally left the threadmark I had preplanned for the resolution on. Let's just delete that boyo

 

[MS-21H 'Hawke']

While the HoH will use our nonintervention to make us look bad, the Cardassians will do the same if we intervene.

The justification they gave for going to war is precisely the Prime Directive, so if we don't find evidence that their story is complete bullshit they will accuse the Federation of betraying its principles, and it will at least look plausible.

On the point that our position is not going to get better:
I would prefer to form defensive agreements with nations bordering the Cardassians first and then have an ironclad reason for going to war. I don't think even the pacifists can argue that we should just break such a treaty. And we don't have to sent ships to the Allupii to help them in case of attack, we can just attack Cardassia and force them to pull back to defend their empire.

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That would be all well and good, but it's too late to talk about that kind of thing.

We have an issue now, and we have to deal with it. The Horizon and ISC have a point, the Cardassians have been gobbling up minor powers in some stupid bid to keep up with us, and they don't care about the people they conquer. Yeah, the Klingons and Romulans have done the same thing in the past, but we don't have the chance with them that we have with the Ashalla Pact here. Besides, if we can beat the pact and force them to back down, we can THEN focus our efforts on of the HoH a lot more securely.

I also expect that this is something the HoH will hold over us for a LONG TIME if we don't interviene, and they're actually damned good at the Diplomacy game, plus they have a whole frontier they can screw over for us if they really wanted to. The Cardassians are really only an issue regaurding the Gorn, and they don't have the skill or ship power the HoH does to counter us as effectively.