Oh, wait, does Shatter-Wrist work through weapons, not just shields? For some reason I was thinking of it as a specifically anti-shield thing.
To be clear, I was not saying at any point that we should not have two Shatter-Wrists in the plan, seems silly not to. It's that I struggle to imagine this fight ending with him having two broken wrists.
It aims at the wrist, it works on any arm we aim it at, in theory anyway, it's just that shields don't help. And it may not work but seems worth trying.
I think that Contested Movement is the only thing we've seen that he can't use some bullshit to stop, and that's significant. He has more Orthstirr than we do, so hoping to just batter down his defences with Shatter-Wrist and then high-dice trick attacks is... maybe viable if Shatter-Wrist surprises him enough, but I my strong gut feeling is that might pull something which allows him to mitigate this. If that happens, and he starts throwing his own powerful attacks back, then IDK how we win.
I'll note that our attacks are a lot more efficient than his defenses, so his better Orthstirr doesn't go as far as it might. It still goes a ways, but not as far as one might expect. And he can't pull the same trick nearly as well offensively because his swords will, in fact, break if he starts doing Sharpen too much. This is especially true if we can force him to burn Aspects on having functional limbs.
A Contested Movement with a strong attack (and I trust you to decide what that would be) feels like it could end this fight decisively if we soften him up with Shatter-Wrist beforehand. If we need at least +9d6 to make it work, then I think we should try and make sure we throw three Basic Attacks at him so we can do that. That's my hot take, anyway.
I don't see good evidence he can't oppose that, is the thing. Even at +9d if he's been using Stoker State on all his basic attacks and uses the dice there, I think the Contested Movement goes in his favor more often than not. And while Contested Movement can be good for us, it also opens up a fairly significant hole in our defenses.
Also, during the three attacks we're making to set up the Contested Movement I suspect he'll have already hit us with any big attacks he may be planning. Even if we do them right after the Shatter-Wrists in order to get three of them used, we'll have been attacked by him 3 or 4 times...I'd be very surprised if his big attacks aren't in the first three or four attacks he makes unless we can get him on his back foot, in which case I don't think contested Movement is the best play.
I am now concerned. I think? Or he's just using Fasts with his absurd number of shapeshifting slots or something.
Can't we just do this with Armory Pockets?
Only at huge expense. Conservatively, he's used at least 6 or so. That many Armory Pockets would be, well, they'd cost 120 Permanent Orthstirr and thus 4 Odr per turn. Fasts are more viable, but having that many would be 2 Shapeshifting Slots, which is a large investment.