Ehh that sounds like a bit too much effort for the Elders. Plus if the sect is under attack then people who explored before won't be familiar with the changes since they're not on that mountain.
I want to remind people that breakthroughs are hard.
A breakthrough requires 3 successes, not necessarily consecutive. We currently have a 55% of succeeding on each attempt.
For a given attempt, we use 1 action and have a 45% chance of losing on average 23 points of xp. This means an "average" attempt costs about 1 action and 10 points of xp (since 45% of 23 is about 10). However, it takes on average 1/.55 (about 1.8) attempts to get a single success, which means we need to budget a touch over about 1.8 actions and 18xp per success on average.
This means for three successes, we need around 5.5 actions and 55xp. Be sure to judge matters accordingly.
Picking the only plan that takes the limited time quest. Bonus points because it is a co-op with Meizhen which should help with dispelling any fear aura awkwardness.
Alright, I did it again guys! I have more math for people to sink their teeth into. I haven't done much with the Qi or the meridian aspect, or the various arts we want to learn, but this should give people a rough estimate of a time frame until we are able to reach green/bronze. I don't know if this is going to be helpful, but I figured I had the time and it wouldn't hurt.
The purpose of this math is to demonstrate our ability to reach Green and Bronze with plenty of time before the tournament. These numbers do not calculate the extra growth or fallbacks that we may encounter along the way to Green and Bronze, but instead, provide a rough estimate of what our base growth is looking like for the foreseeable future. These numbers also do not take into account overflow or single bursts of cultivation.
Rough Numbers
Mid → Late Yellow
240 successes
Mid → Late Silver
240 successes
Late → Peak Yellow
360 successes
Late → Peak Silver
360 Successes
Average rolls for Spiritual cultivation without pills
Talent + EPC + Vent + Stones
6 + 5 + 8 + 20 = 39
39/2 = 19 successes + 2 auto's = 21 successes per action
Average rolls for Physical cultivation without pills
Talent + EPC + Vent + Stones
6 + 5 + 8 + 20 = 39
39/2 = 19 successes + 2 auto's = 21 successes per action
Actions for getting the next step
Actions required to get from Mid to Late Yellow
240 successes / 21 successes per action = 11.43 actions
Actions required to get from Mid to Late Silver
240 successes / 21 successes per action = 11.43 actions
Actions required to get from Late to Peak yellow
360 successes / 21 successes per action = 17.14 actions
Actions required to get from Late to Peak Silver
360 Successes / 21 successes per action = 17.14 actions
Total number of actions to get from Mid to Peak Yellow
11.43 actions + 17.14 actions = 28.57 actions
Total number of actions to get from Mid to Peak Yellow
11.43 actions + 17.14 actions = 28.57 actions
Actions for getting the next step
Actions required to get from Mid to Late Yellow
237 successes / 25 successes per action = 9.48 actions
Actions required to get from Mid to Late Silver
180 successes / 25 successes per action = 7.2 actions
Actions required to get from Late to Peak yellow
360 successes / 25 successes per action = 14.4 actions
Actions required to get from Late to Peak Silver
360 Successes / 25 successes per action = 14.4 actions
Total number of actions required to get from Mid to Peak Yellow
9.48 actions + 14.4 actions = 23.88 actions
Total number of actions required to get from Mid to Peak Silver
7.2 actions + 14.4 actions = 21.6 actions
The number of weeks left until the tournament.
These numbers are after a rough estimate after week 19. This means I will be counting week 20 until week 52.
52 weeks in a year - 19 weeks in the past = 33 weeks
This means that there are roughly 33 weeks left until the tournament that is occurring at the end of the year.
What these numbers mean!
With the steady growth elixir and other medicines, and if we give one full action per week to each cultivation category, we should be able to get to Peak yellow and Peak Silver at weeks 43 and weeks 41 respectively. This would give us 3 weeks to break through into Green and 5 weeks to break into Bronze.
I also haven't calculated the time to get the meridians we want or the amount of qi, or the arts we would want. All of these are various elements that we need to be aware of and balance if we want to have the needed parts that were recommended by Bai Meizhen. Hopefully, these numbers can help other people plan long term strategies and figure out where they would like Ling Qi to be cultivation wise for the tournament.
So there it is. I hope I provided enough material to sink some teeth into. Hopefully, I got the math right. If not don't be afraid to tag me and tell me where I went wrong, I'll be sure to make the subsequent edits.
The conclusion that the math details is that we should have plenty of time before the tournament to get to Green and Bronze. However, I haven't calculated how long it will take to get meridians nor have I calculated the speed boost that having EPC 2 will bring or that having a third spirit stone will bring. So, I am firmly in the belief that we can get to Green and Bronze with the meridians, Qi, and arts we need to win it.
The spirit stone expenditure would look like this:
From Mid to Late SIlver it takes 8 actions. Each action requires 26 Red stones because 2 Red stones + the cost of all 4 pills (24 stones) is that much. That's 26x8=208 stones until we reach Late Silver. Then we get 8 extra dice and have to spend 35 stones a week (1 red stone, 1 yellow stone, 24 red stones).
You know what, I'm going to wait for the updated version.
Argent Soul had a number of benefits, some of which were made permanent at some point. We got to keep the permanent bonuses, but the temporary bonuses only apply when we use AS as our cultivation art, which we aren't doing now.
Only the transient ones. Most of Argent Soul turned into permanent benefits though. The only ones we lost out on are it's specific dice adders, and EPC is pretty close in some ways to them.
I want to remind people that breakthroughs are hard.
A breakthrough requires 3 successes, not necessarily consecutive. We currently have a 55% of succeeding on each attempt.
For a given attempt, we use 1 action and have a 45% chance of losing on average 23 points of xp. This means an "average" attempt costs about 1 action and 10 points of xp (since 45% of 23 is about 10). However, it takes on average 1/.55 (about 1.8) attempts to get a single success, which means we need to budget a touch over about 1.8 actions and 18xp per success on average.
This means for three successes, we need around 5.5 actions and 55xp. Be sure to judge matters accordingly.
Yes. Or at least the bits that didn't become permanent.
So, we no longer get the reroll, the spirit upkeep reduction, the cultivation dice or the Qi bonus successes up-to-40.
The reroll is probably the bit we'll miss most.
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On the question of whether we can ask seniors for locations, Gu did get the spring location from one, so some at least remain stationary.
it might be helpful to nix everything that assumes we aren't using medicines, because we will be. Just budget +7 for spiritual and +10 for physical, and call it a day.
Ahh, but I like to have a baseline to compare how much the medicines help. It also helps because I can just copy and paste a lot of the information down and only change a few numbers and calculations. I don't mind doing the work and I would like to think it helps people who wish to budget money to see what would happen if we didn't take the pills. It can be used as a cost-benefit analysis if we get really poor after a couple of bad fights.
Only the transient ones. Most of Argent Soul turned into permanent benefits though. The only ones we lost out on are it's specific dice adders, and EPC is pretty close in some ways to them.
I'm counting the permanent +5. Our base breakthrough roll has a success rate of talent*10 for Red->Yellow, (talent-1)*10 for Yellow->Green, and so on. That would give us (6-1)*10=50% as our success rate. AS's permanent +5 raises that to 55%.
Ahh, but I like to have a baseline to compare how much the medicines help. It also helps because I can just copy and paste a lot of the information down and only change a few numbers and calculations. I don't mind doing the work and I would like to think it helps people who wish to budget money to see what would happen if we didn't take the pills. It can be used as a cost-benefit analysis if we get really poor after a couple of bad fights.
Sure I can do that for you. I'll probably spend another 30 or so minutes adding other stuff as well, like Red Stone expenditure, expected growth rates, time to do meridians and time to do Qi. I'll probably all put them in spoilers.
1. is AS's 7 dice to meridians enough that it's worth timing a meridian week so we can switch back to it will losing minimal progress on EPC, or is it more practical to just keep EPC and not worry about the 2/3 average success?
2. I think a bow is probably going to be our next talisman expenditure. After that, replacing the Starlight Ribbon? Increase Darkness reduction, add some Qi regen if possible*, maybe an expression* bonus?
*expression would probably be best on a flute, and a wind instrument's connection to the lung meridians might mean it could be a good Qi regen slot ("a lung meridian, which are connected to the creation of qi constructs and one's ability to take in and expel qi."), but I don't know how often we would be able to use it properly, considering the pushes to both have FVM become hands free through whatever means, and to keep attacking after FVMs effects are set up.
1. is AS's 7 dice to meridians enough that it's worth timing a meridian week so we can switch back to it will losing minimal progress on EPC, or is it more practical to just keep EPC and not worry about the 2/3 average success?
2. I think a bow is probably going to be our next talisman expenditure. After that, replacing the Starlight Ribbon? Increase Darkness reduction, add some Qi regen if possible*, maybe an expression* bonus?
*expression would probably be best on a flute, and a wind instrument's connection to the lung meridians might mean it could be a good Qi regen slot ("a lung meridian, which are connected to the creation of qi constructs and one's ability to take in and expel qi."), but I don't know how often we would be able to use it properly, considering the pushes to both have FVM become hands free through whatever means, and to keep attacking after FVMs effects are set up.
If EPC doesn't pick up a Meridian adder... YES. That's more dice then we get form our major pills. Like, the week where we're lible to reach 2 on it I'll push for us to have 'roll over to spiritual' and then make the next week a meridian week. 7 dice is a big deal.
1. is AS's 7 dice to meridians enough that it's worth timing a meridian week so we can switch back to it will losing minimal progress on EPC, or is it more practical to just keep EPC and not worry about the 2/3 average success?
We can't switch to AS without losing EPC progress, so until we get to the point where we can't unlock meridians otherwise we probably want to stick to EPC.
We can't switch to AS without losing EPC progress, so until we get to the point where we can't unlock meridians otherwise we probably want to stick to EPC.
Alright, the document now has the raw numbers that I was playing around with, The growth at the current rate, The growth at an expected increase in the rate of the growth, the amount of time to get the meridians we would want, the amount of dice it will take to get to 61 qi, and the red stone expenditure with what we know of. This document isn't perfect, but I think it should serve as a rough guideline of how long certain actions will take to accomplish among other things (Ling Qi Slow down, your cultivation is too fast for this world!).
Here is a link to the original post, as I don't think people would want me posting the document twice.
I'm not voting for any plan that doesn't train EPC for any reason other than hitting a cap anyway.
Remember that EPC gives us a second free yellow stone. And I'm fairly sure that the second YSS bonus is comparable to AS5s bonus. Do you think the AS5 bonus is worth 10 spirit stones? Because if we don't spend that second YSS we're not getting anything.