Huh, that's right. I'd somehow made an erroneous mental substitution there.
Wait, how on earth does Xiulan not already have it if GF *and* Ling Qi has it? All I can think is that he must have brought it up at some point and been rebuffed?
Forge of Destiny(Xianxia Quest)
- Thread starter yrsillar
- Start date
- Original Fantasy
Huh, that's right. I'd somehow made an erroneous mental substitution there.
Wait, how on earth does Xiulan not already have it if GF *and* Ling Qi has it? All I can think is that he must have brought it up at some point and been rebuffed?
We're teaching it to Han Jian but he doesn't get to train other people in it since we keep the jade slip.
- Location
- The Temple of the Winds
Han got AC from Xiulan, and traded AS for AM with Ling Qi. Whether or not Han gave AM to Xiulan , Fan or <what's his name> is up in the air, but he probably didn't since there's been no mention of any of their training.
It does pose the question of what he traded AC with Xiulan for... or if he just got it by virtue of being her lord. Which has some implications towards vassalhood.
Some people were saying, a while ago, that techs can only be traded one step, due to it being on a jade slip.
Assuming that is correct, then Han peaks at the AC jade slip while Xiulan holds it and at AM's jade slip while Ling Qi holds it. He can't give either of those to anyone else.
- Location
- The Void
- Location
- Brazil
People with omake points: would you consider leveling Archery up so we can break through with it maxed?
Hands bursting in flames like a Guitar Hero special, so sick our tunes and so hot our notes?
- Location
- Cyberspace
I'd suggest holding off until the week ends. For one thing, Archery progress is quite possible for the base raid - how much is unknown. For another, once the week ends then we'll be in position to figure out what kind of breakthrough we want Ling Qi to go for - and what major actions are available for week #37.
For example, I advocate a two-week breakthrough, allowing actions that can have minors attached to them, making it less obvious what Ling Qi is up to, giving her some ability to catch "opportunities" or to play defense against an attack. That also means that Ling Qi has one more week to squeeze in just a touch more on progression.
For another, I'm not sure that a 'soft-capped' mastery will offer a breakthrough bonus. Meanwhile, Archery is a skill that Ling Qi advances reasonably often, as she'll usually use it a bit during various jobs or expeditions. Moreover, it's a somewhat 'fungible' skill, in that she uses several skills to accomplish the same end (victory in combat) and combat is often multiple rolls using multiple attributes, skills and masteries.
She has other skills, however, that are "single points of failure" when they're used - that is, she gets one roll and that determines complete success or failure. Here are all the skills that are within 6 of improving:
- Strength 4 ==> 18/20
- Composure 5 ==> 20/25
- Bureaucracy 2 ==> 0/6
- Investigation 4 ==> 9/12
- Medicine 2 ==> 1/6
- Occult 4 ==> 10/12
- Politics 4 ==> 8/12
- Athletics 6 ==> 17/21
- Survival 5 ==> 9/15
- Empathy 5 ==> 11/15
- Socialize 2(?) ==> 2/6
- War 2 ==> 2/6
- Archery 6 ==> 14/20
- Spears 2 ==> 0/6
- Resilience 5 ==> 14/15
- Swords 2 ==> 0/6
(Manipulation 6 is also only 8 away, at 27/35.)
In particular, things like Politics and Investigation could become more important as Ling Qi firmly settles among the top of the year and people start making plans and plots to get a position in the tournament. Her being able to navigate the treacherous waters a die better is actually more valuable than being able to shoot arrows a die better, in my opinion. I'd suggest people pick whichever of the 'social' skills progresses this week that're within striking distance and dinging those.
And if there *are* breakthrough bonuses from soft-capping attributes or skills... I feel like Manipulation or Athletics might be better to push over the top than Archery. The former is an attribute and is useful for the aforementioned social rolls, and the latter, along with Stealth, is what deals with mobility for Ling Qi. Archery, on the other hand, is only one of several masteries (one of three skills that apply to ranged, in fact - Throwing Knives and Expression being the other two)
That should be (2/9) XP. Second dot was gained in Week 23.
- Location
- Brazil
Yeah, but it gets exponentially harder to raise masteries, moreso so far than attributes and skills, and we'd also be banking on the fact that Ling Qi is a freaking genius with archery.
The points aren't mine to spend, but I'd certainly do it. 4-5 points to cap it before breakthrough shouldn't be hard to pool.
Others might be useful. Archery certainly will be.
Simply put, while yes there are many useful attributes and skills, now is not the time to get moderately better at something. Now is the time to cap stuff.
The points aren't mine to spend, but I'd certainly do it. 4-5 points to cap it before breakthrough shouldn't be hard to pool.
Others might be useful. Archery certainly will be.
Simply put, while yes there are many useful attributes and skills, now is not the time to get moderately better at something. Now is the time to cap stuff.
There's another error on the Character Sheet, @yrsillar. As above, Socialize should be two dots and (2/9) XP. Animal Ken should be the same, but right now listed as having three dots.
And to follow up @CircleTheSkies's post above, here's all the Attributes and Skills listed in order of how much XP they need to their next level. Slightly more readable, in my opinion.
And to follow up @CircleTheSkies's post above, here's all the Attributes and Skills listed in order of how much XP they need to their next level. Slightly more readable, in my opinion.
1 XP to go
Resilience 4 (14/15)
2 XP to go
Strength 3 (18/20)
Occult 3 (10/12)
3 XP to go
Investigation 3 (9/12)
4 XP to go
Athletics 5 (17/21)
Empathy 4 (11/15)
Politics 3 (8/12)
War 1 (2/6)
5 XP to go
Composure 4 (20/25)
Medicine 1 (1/6)
6-9 XP to go
Archery 5 (14/20)
Bureaucracy 1 (0/6)
Spears 1 (0/6)
Swords 1 (0/6)
Socialize 2 (2/9)
Survival 4 (9/15)
Manipulation 5 (27/35)
Craft 2 (1/9)
Unarmed 3 (4/12)
Wits 4 (16/25)
Animal Ken 2 (0/9)
Heavy Polearms 2 (0/9)
Intimidation 2 (0/9)
Power 2 (0/9)
10-15 XP to go
Streetwise 3 (0/12)
Subterfuge 3 (0/12)
Academics 4 (2/15)
Persuasion 4 (2/15)
Presence 3 (5/20)
20+ XP to go
Throwing Knives 5 (0/20)
Formations 5 (0/21)
Larceny 5 (0/21)
Stamina 5 (7/35)
Resolve 5 (1/35)
Intelligence 5 (0/35)
Capped
Dexterity 6 (MAX)
Dodge 6 (MAX)
Expression 6 (MAX)
Stealth 6 (MAX)
Resilience 4 (14/15)
2 XP to go
Strength 3 (18/20)
Occult 3 (10/12)
3 XP to go
Investigation 3 (9/12)
4 XP to go
Athletics 5 (17/21)
Empathy 4 (11/15)
Politics 3 (8/12)
War 1 (2/6)
5 XP to go
Composure 4 (20/25)
Medicine 1 (1/6)
6-9 XP to go
Archery 5 (14/20)
Bureaucracy 1 (0/6)
Spears 1 (0/6)
Swords 1 (0/6)
Socialize 2 (2/9)
Survival 4 (9/15)
Manipulation 5 (27/35)
Craft 2 (1/9)
Unarmed 3 (4/12)
Wits 4 (16/25)
Animal Ken 2 (0/9)
Heavy Polearms 2 (0/9)
Intimidation 2 (0/9)
Power 2 (0/9)
10-15 XP to go
Streetwise 3 (0/12)
Subterfuge 3 (0/12)
Academics 4 (2/15)
Persuasion 4 (2/15)
Presence 3 (5/20)
20+ XP to go
Throwing Knives 5 (0/20)
Formations 5 (0/21)
Larceny 5 (0/21)
Stamina 5 (7/35)
Resolve 5 (1/35)
Intelligence 5 (0/35)
Capped
Dexterity 6 (MAX)
Dodge 6 (MAX)
Expression 6 (MAX)
Stealth 6 (MAX)
How so? Attributes take more XP than masteries.
We have medicine that pays us off for taking as many breakthrough rolls as possible in one week. We are completely unable to hide our cultivation level from anybody relevant who lays eyes on us. It's 100% socially acceptable to go into seclusion for breakthrough attempts. Getting all of our breakthroughs done ASAP lets us make efficient use of medicine and green spirit stones. Anything else that we would want to do with the actions could be done the next week. A double breakthrough would also give us a nice reputation bump and is quite possible if we go all in (if I've done the math right we have an 82% chance of at least one breakthrough and a 48% chance of a double).
Given all that, I don't see any reason for a slow motion breakthrough.
- Location
- Brazil
Raising a mastery from 5 to 6 takes 3 "XP" for every progress point. That's why she stopped gaining three progress at a time.
If she weren't a genius, it'd be effectively 70-something progress to go from Archery 5 to 6.
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
- Location
- Lickwidget
- Pronouns
- She/Her
From what I understand, the case is that we do not have a 48% chance of a double. We have something like 10% from what I last recall.
Could be wrong though depending on how one sets up the weeks actions.
If we use both medicines, we have a 60% chance of success on any roll. We have 3 rerolls. One from the medicine and two from spending an action to re-cultivate and re-breakthrough. We need 6 successes for a double breakthrough.
I believe this means that our chances of a double breakthrough are the same as the chances of 6 successes out of 9. We may not actually get 9 rolls, but any scenario where we fail out early is the same as a scenario where we have 9 rolls and at least four failures (in other words, we can't calculate the expected number of successes as if we have 9 rolls but we can calculate the chances of getting 6 successes as if we have 9 rolls). If you plug .6, 9, and 6 into a binomial calculator, you get a little over a 48% chance of 6 or more successes in 9 rolls.
This assumes that we can re-cap our cultivation in one action, but I think that's fairly reasonable with the dice we're throwing around these days.
Black Noise
Curious
- Location
- About 1AU from Sol
Both your numbers and action assumptions are wrong;
- target value is 60, (10*talent -10 penalty +5 Argent +5 elixir) which means the valid range is 1~59 (p(success)=0.59)
- when you're at full successes, an attempt costs a full action. Restoring successes back to full is also a full action, and we don't want to restore something more than once due to cultivation dice penalty.
- the actual action tree isn't a simple binomial. Here's the one for double breakthrough: link
- doing something similar (or running a sim) for single breakthrough gives odds of ~75%
- Location
- Required Location
@Black Noise. Booo Boooo Booo. Your numbers are lower than @jacobk s. I will vote for him. Bigger numbers and better success chances will help us succeed. I stand with great success!
#biggerisbetter #sucessfordays #wearethe48percent #mathisaspectrum
If anyone wants to help get the better math elected please reply with #metoo.
#biggerisbetter #sucessfordays #wearethe48percent #mathisaspectrum
If anyone wants to help get the better math elected please reply with #metoo.
Using .59 instead of .6 drops the success rate down to 45.7% using the binomial calculator.
Your calculation seems to assume that cannot get a double breakthrough if we have two failures. I do not see why this would be true. One failure is wiped out by meds, and at least one should be able to be wiped out by cultivation. In other words, if our actions are:
1) Breakthrough spiritual.
2) Breakthrough physical.
3) Cultivate to recoup any failure.
4) Re-breakthrough what was just cultivated.
5) Cultivate to recoup any remaining failure.
6) Re-breakthrough what was just cultivated.
Then we can double breakthrough despite three failures. It's possible that step (5) wouldn't be able to re-cap our cultivation if we experience 3 failures on the same side of the breakthrough, but not certain.
How many failures do you think are needed to rule out a double breakthrough?
However many failures are permitted, the odds of success are equal to the odds of getting 6 successes out of (6 + n) trials, which is a straight binomial calculation. Although we may not actually get (6 + n) trials if we experienced, for example, n + 1 failures in a row from the beginning, such a scenario would have been counted as a failure in the binomial calculation since it could not have resulted in 6 successes regardless of what happened in the future rolls.
- Location
- Cyberspace
Ummm... what? "70-something progress"?
Right, but it's the same for Skills. Attributes are even worse, taking 5 times the new level, or 66% more. So how are masteries more difficult?
Arkeus
Crazy cat guy
- Location
- France
@TotallyNotEvil is not referring to the cost increase per level, but to a 'effective increase needed to get each XP', by saying that as before we got 2/3XP for archery passively every weeks, and now we only get 1, the effective cost of each XP is 3 times as big.
This, however, totally ignore that passive increase of skills get harder and harder, but that it doesn't necessarily slow down active increase of skills through events or specific major actions. Archery hasn't really grown slower for those, so we can still easily get archery XP. it's just that we can't count on every weeks to give us +2/3 XP without even having an action that truly demands archery. The same happened for Stealth and Dodge, though it was even worse for those (0xp for just passive stealth use).
Narratively, though, getting archery to 6 before breakthrough is fairly nice so we have 'fully' used the ??? Breakthrough bonus.
Also, a week devoted to breakthrough's should be a shorter chapter to write and irl time spent away from your favorite minor characters will be less.
But the chances of getting both are more like 17%
Last edited:
Yes, thus 6 successes total are required.
In the calculations I've seen that give that number, it is assumed that more than one failure will derail a double breakthrough. However, it seems to me that a fully devoted week could see a double breakthrough happen despite three failed rolls. Do you disagree?
? We only have one reroll.
At best we can fail once and still get a double. Even if we fail the reroll and don't have to recover, we'd still need more successes than we have actions.
Spiritual: 1. Fail, Reroll Fail, 2. Success 3. Success 4. Success (3/3)
Physical: 5. Success, 6. Success (2/3)